scholarly journals Using RothC Model to Simulate Soil Organic Carbon Stocks under Different Climate Change Scenarios for the Rangelands of the Arid Regions of Southern Iran

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2107
Author(s):  
Sayed Fakhreddin Afzali ◽  
Bijan Azad ◽  
Mohammad H. Golabi ◽  
Rosa Francaviglia
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Soil Matrix ◽  
Southern Iran ◽  
Precipitation Decrease ◽  
Rothc Model ◽  
Soc Stock ◽  
Arid Rangelands

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is strongly influenced by climate change, and it is believed that increased temperatures might enhance the release of CO2 with higher emission into the atmosphere. Appropriate models may be used to predict the changes of SOC stock under projected future scenarios of climate change. In this investigation, the RothC model was run for a period of 36 years under climate scenarios namely: P (no climate change) as well as CCH1 and CCH2 (climate change scenarios) in the arid rangelands of Ghir–O-Karzin’s BandBast in southern Iran. Model results have shown that after 11 years (2014–25), SOC stock decreased by 3.05% under the CCH1 scenario (with a projected annual precipitation decrease by 6.69% and mean annual temperature increase by 9.96%) and by 0.23% under the P scenario. In CCH2, with further decreases in rainfall (10.93%) and increase in temperature (12.53%) compared to CCH1, the model predicted that the SOC stock during the 25 years (2025–50) was reduced by 2.36% and 3.53% under the CCH1 and CCH2 scenario respectively. According to model predictions, with future climatic conditions (higher temperatures and lower rainfall) the decomposition rate may increase resulting in higher losses of soil organic carbon from the soil matrix. The result from this investigation may also be used for developing management techniques to be practiced in the other arid rangelands of Iran with similar conditions.

scholarly journals How much carbon input is required to preserve or increase projected soil organic carbon stocks in German croplands under climate change?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catharina Riggers ◽  
Christopher Poeplau ◽  
Axel Don ◽  
Cathleen Frühauf ◽  
René Dechow
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon Stocks ◽  
Soc Stock ◽  
Soc Stocks ◽  
Negative Emission Technology

Abstract Aims Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is discussed as negative emission technology with the potential to remove relevant amounts of carbon from the atmosphere. At the same time, climate change-driven losses of SOC to the atmosphere might impede such goals. Methods In this study, we used an ensemble of different SOC models and climate projections to project SOC stocks in German croplands up to 2099 under different climate change scenarios. We then estimated the required increase in organic carbon (OC) input to preserve or increase SOC stocks. Results Projected SOC stocks of German croplands are estimated to decline under current OC input levels and management, both with and without climate change. Depending on the climate scenario, we estimated that the OC input to the soil in 2099 needs to be between 51% (+ 1.3 Mg ha− 1) and 93% (+ 2.3 Mg ha− 1) higher than today to preserve current SOC stock levels. A SOC stock increase of 34.4% (4‰ a− 1) would even require an OC input increase of between 221% (+ 5.5 Mg ha− 1) and 283% (+ 7.1 Mg ha− 1). Conclusions Our study highlights that under climate change increasing SOC stocks is considerable challenging since projected SOC losses have to be compensated first before SOC built up is possible. This would require unrealistically high OC input increases with drastic changes in agricultural management.

scholarly journals Application of RothC model to predict soil organic carbon stock on agricultural soils of Slovakia

2010 ◽  
Vol 5 (No. 1) ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Barančíková ◽  
J. Halás ◽  
M. Gutteková ◽  
J. Makovníková ◽  
M. Nováková ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Carbon Stock ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Agricultural Soils ◽  
Plant Residues ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon Stock ◽  
Rothc Model ◽  
Soc Stock ◽  
Organic Carbon Stock

Soil organic matter (SOM) takes part in many environmental functions and, depending on the conditions, it can be a source or a sink of the greenhouse gases. Presently, the changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stock can arise because of the climatic changes or changes in the land use and land management. A promising method in the estimation of SOC changes is modelling, one of the most used models for the prediction of changes in soil organic carbon stock on agricultural land being the RothC model. Because of its simplicity and availability of the input data, RothC was used for testing the efficiency to predict the development of SOC stock during 35-year period on agricultural land of Slovakia. The received data show an increase of SOC stock during the first (20 years) phase and no significant changes in the course of the second part of modelling. The increase of SOC stock in the first phase can be explained by a high carbon input of plant residues and manure and a lower temperature in comparison with the second modelling part.

scholarly journals Effects of climate change and land management on soil organic carbon dynamics and carbon leaching in northwestern Europe

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1519-1536 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Stergiadi ◽  
Marcel van der Perk ◽  
Ton C. M. de Nijs ◽  
Marc F. P. Bierkens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Century Model ◽  
Precipitation Effect ◽  
Land Use Types

Abstract. Climate change and land management practices are projected to significantly affect soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leaching from soils. In this modelling study, we adopted the Century model to simulate past (1906–2012), present, and future (2013–2100) SOC and DOC levels for sandy and loamy soils typical of northwestern European conditions under three land use types (forest, grassland, and arable land) and several future scenarios addressing climate change and land management change. To our knowledge, this is the first time that the Century model has been applied to assess the effects of climate change and land management on DOC concentrations and leaching rates, which, in combination with SOC, play a major role in metal transport through soil. The simulated current SOC levels were generally in line with the observed values for the different kinds of soil and land use types. The climate change scenarios result in a decrease in both SOC and DOC for the agricultural systems, whereas for the forest systems, SOC is projected to slightly increase and DOC to decrease. An analysis of the sole effects of changes in temperature and changes in precipitation showed that, for SOC, the temperature effect predominates over the precipitation effect, whereas for DOC the precipitation effect is more prominent. A reduction in the application rates of fertilisers under the land management scenario leads to a decrease in the SOC stocks and the DOC leaching rates for the arable land systems, but it has a negligible effect on SOC and DOC levels for the grassland systems. Our study demonstrated the ability of the Century model to simulate climate change and agricultural management effects on SOC dynamics and DOC leaching, providing a robust tool for the assessment of carbon sequestration and the implications for contaminant transport in soils.

scholarly journals Differential long-term effects of climate change and management on stocks and distribution of soil organic carbon in productive grasslands

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1055-1096 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. G. De Bruijn ◽  
P. Calanca ◽  
C. Ammann ◽  
J. Fuhrer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Organic C ◽  
Soil C ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Soc Stocks

Abstract. We studied the impact of climate change on the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in productive grassland systems undergoing two types of management, an intensive type with frequent harvests and fertilizer applications and an extensive system where fertilization is omitted and harvests are fewer. The Oensingen Grassland Model was explicitly developed for this study. It was calibrated using measurements taken in a recently established permanent sward in Central Switzerland, and run to simulate SOC dynamics over 2001–2100 under three climate change scenarios assuming different elements of IPCC A2 emission scenarios. We found that: (1) management intensity dominates SOC until approximately 20 yr after grassland establishment. Differences in SOC between climate scenarios become significant after 20 yr and climate effects dominate SOC dynamics from approximately 50 yr after establishment, (2) carbon supplied through manure contributes about 60% to measured organic C increase in fertilized grassland. (3) Soil C accumulates particularly in the top 10 cm soil until 5 yr after establishment. In the long-term, C accumulation takes place in the top 15 cm of the soil profile, while C content decreases below this depth. The transitional depth between gains and losses of C mainly depends on the vertical distribution of root senescence and root biomass. We discuss the importance of previous land use on carbon sequestration potentials that are much lower at the Oensingen site under ley-arable rotation and with much higher SOC stocks than most soils under arable crops. We further discuss the importance of biomass senescence rates, because C balance estimations indicate that these may differ considerably between the two management systems.

scholarly journals Assessing Soil Organic Carbon Stock Dynamics under Future Climate Change Scenarios in the Middle Qilian Mountains

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1698
Author(s):  
Wei Liu ◽  
Meng Zhu ◽  
Yongge Li ◽  
Jutao Zhang ◽  
Linshan Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Qilian Mountains ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
Soc Stock ◽  
The Mean

Soil organic carbon (SOC) simply cannot be managed if its amounts, changes and locations are not well known. Thus, evaluations of the spatio-temporal dynamics of SOC stock under future climate change are crucial for the adaptive management of regional carbon sequestration. Here, we evaluated the dynamics of SOC stock to a 60 cm depth in the middle Qilian Mountains (1755–5051 m a.s.l.) by combining systematic measurements from 138 sampling sites with a machine learning model. Our results reveal that the combination of systematic measurements with the machine learning model allowed spatially explicit estimates of SOC change to be made. The average SOC stock in the middle Qilian Mountains was expected to decrease under future climate change, while the size and direction of SOC stock changes seemed to be elevation-dependent. Specifically, in comparison with the 2000s, the mean annual precipitation was projected to increase by 18.37, 19.80 and 30.80 mm, and the mean annual temperature was projected to increase by 1.9, 2.4 and 2.9 °C under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 (low-emissions pathway), RCP4.5 (low-to-moderate-emissions pathway), and RCP8.5 (high-emissions pathway) scenarios by the 2050s, respectively. Accordingly, the area-weighted SOC stock and total storage for the whole study area were estimated to decrease by 0.43, 0.63 and 1.01 kg m–2 and 4.55, 6.66 and 10.62 Tg under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, the mid-elevation zones (3100–3900 m), especially the subalpine shrub-meadow Mollic Leptosols, were projected to experience the most intense carbon loss. However, the higher elevation zones (>3900 m), especially the alpine desert zone, were characterized by significant carbon accumulation. As for the low-elevation zones (<2900 m), SOC was projected to be less varied under future climate change scenarios. Thus, the mid-elevation zones, especially the subalpine shrub-meadows and Mollic Leptosols, should be given priority in terms of reducing CO2 emissions in the Qilian Mountains.

scholarly journals Soil organic carbon dynamics from agricultural management practices under climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1037-1055
Author(s):  
Tobias Herzfeld ◽  
Jens Heinke ◽  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Christoph Müller
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Residue Management ◽  
Biophysical Model ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Warm Temperate ◽  
Soc Stocks

Abstract. Sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) on cropland has been proposed as a climate change mitigation strategy to reduce global greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere, which in particular is needed to achieve the targets proposed in the Paris Agreement to limit the increase in atmospheric temperature to well below 2 ∘C. We analyze the historical evolution and future development of cropland SOC using the global process-based biophysical model LPJmL, which was recently extended by a detailed representation of tillage practices and residue management (version 5.0-tillage2). We find that model results for historical global estimates for SOC stocks are at the upper end of available literature, with ∼2650 Pg C of SOC stored globally in the year 2018, ∼170 Pg C of which is stored in cropland soils. In future projections, assuming no further changes in current cropland patterns and under four different management assumptions with two different climate forcings, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, results suggest that agricultural SOC stocks decline in all scenarios, as the decomposition of SOC outweighs the increase in carbon inputs into the soil from altered management practices. Different climate change scenarios, as well as assumptions on tillage management, play a minor role in explaining differences in SOC stocks. The choice of tillage practice explains between 0.2 % and 1.3 % of total cropland SOC stock change in the year 2100. Future dynamics in cropland SOC are most strongly controlled by residue management: whether residues are left on the field or harvested. We find that on current cropland, global cropland SOC stocks decline until the end of the century by only 1.0 % to 1.4 % if residue retention management systems are generally applied and by 26.7 % to 27.3 % in the case of residue harvest. For different climatic regions, increases in cropland SOC can only be found for tropical dry, warm temperate moist, and warm temperate dry regions in management systems that retain residues.

The impact of hedges maturation on soil organic carbon stocks in agricultural landscapes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sofia Biffi ◽  
Pippa j Chapman ◽  
Richard P Grayson ◽  
Guy Ziv
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Soc Stock ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;Hedgerows can provide a wide range of regulatory ecosystem services within improved grassland landscapes, such as soil function improvement, soil erosion reduction, biodiversity, water quality, and flood prevention and mitigation. Because of their beneficial effects, farmers are incentivised to retain their hedgerows and the planting of hedges has been encouraged in agri-environment schemes in Europe. Today, hedgerow planting it is one of the most popular practices adopted in the Countryside and Environmental Stewardships in England. The role of hedgerows in climate change mitigation has been increasingly recognized over the past decade, however, while other services have been more widely studies, less is known about hedges soil organic carbon (SOC) storage capacity. The Resilient Dairy Landscapes project aims at identifying strategies to reconcile dairy systems productivity and environment in the face of climate change, and with the Committee on Climate Change calling for a 30% - 40% increase in hedgerow length by 2050 in the UK, it is important to determine the role of hedgerows in meeting Net Zero targets. In this study, we estimate the extent of SOC stock beneath hedges and how it may vary with depth, hedge management and age, as well as how it&amp;#160;may compare&amp;#160;to SOC stock in adjacent agricultural fields. Thus, we measured SOC under 2-4 years old, 10 years old, 37 years old, and 40+ years old hedgerows at 10 cm intervals up to 50 cm of depth under 32 hedges located on dairy farms in Cumbria, UK. We found that the time since planting and the depth of samples play a crucial role in the amount of SOC stock stored underneath hedgerows when accounting for differences in soil type. Our results contribute measurable outcomes towards the estimate of targets for Net Zero 2050 and the extent of ecosystem services provision by hedgerow planting in agricultural landscapes. &amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;

Projected soil organic carbon stocks in German croplands under different climate change scenarios

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catharina Riggers ◽  
Christopher Poeplau ◽  
Axel Don ◽  
Cathleen Frühauf ◽  
René Dechow
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
C Input ◽  
Soc Stocks

&lt;p&gt;Mineralization of soil organic carbon (SOC) is driven by temperature and soil moisture. Thus, climate change might affect future SOC stocks with implications for greenhouse gas fluxes from soils and soil fertility of arable land. We used a model ensemble of different SOC models and climate projections to project SOC stocks in German croplands up to 2099 under different climate change scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Current SOC stocks and management data were derived from the German Agricultural Soil Inventory. We estimated the increase in carbon (C) input required to preserve or increase recent SOC stocks. The model ensemble projected declining SOC stocks in German croplands under current management and yield levels. This was true for a scenario with no future climate change (-0.065 Mg ha&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; a&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;) as well as for the climate change scenarios (-0.070 Mg ha&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; a&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; to -0.120 Mg ha&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; a&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;). Thereby, preserving current SOC stocks would require an increase in current C input to the soil of between 51 % (+1.3 Mg ha&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;) and 93 % (+2.3 Mg ha&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;). We further estimated that a C input increase of between 221 % and 283 % would be required to increase SOC stocks by 34.4 % in 2099 (4 &amp;#8240; a&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;). The results of this study indicate that increasing SOC stocks under climate change by a noticeable amount will be challenging since SOC losses need to be overcompensated.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Modelling soil organic carbon changes on arable land under climate change – a case study analysis of the Kočín farm in Slovakia

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (No. 1) ◽  
pp. 30-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Balkovič ◽  
E. Schmid ◽  
R. Skalský ◽  
M. Nováková
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Crop Rotation ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios

We have estimated soil organic carbon and crop yield changes under distinct climate change scenarios for the Koč&iacute;n farm in Slovakia. Two regional climate change scenarios, i.e. the A2 and B2 SRES emission scenarios, and a reference climate scenario have been included into the bio-physical process model EPIC to simulate the effects on the topsoil organic carbon stocks and crop yields for the period of 2010&ndash;2050. In addition, we have used the data from several fields of the Koč&iacute;n farm including the soil data, crop rotational and management data as well as topographical data. The topsoil organic carbon stocks show a decreasing trend for the period of 2010&ndash;2050. Among all crop rotation systems and soil profiles, the losses over the period are 9.0%, 9.5%, and 10.7% for the reference, A2, and B2 climate scenarios, respectively. Increasing temperatures accelerate the decomposition of the soil organic carbon particularly when soils are intensively managed. The soil organic carbon changes are crop-rotation specific, which is partly due to the climate scenarios that affect the crop biomass production differently. This is shown by comparison of the crop yields. We conclude that EPIC is capable to reliably simulate effects of climate change on soil organic carbon and crop yields.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document