scholarly journals Ensemble Projection of Future Climate and Surface Water Supplies in the North Saskatchewan River Basin above Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 2425
Author(s):  
Muhammad Rehan Anis ◽  
David J. Sauchyn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Water Supplies ◽  
The North

Changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to alter the seasonal distribution of surface water supplies in snowmelt-dominated watersheds. A realistic assessment of future climate change and inter-annual variability is required to meet a growing demand for water supplies in all major use sectors. This study focuses on changes in climate and runoff in the North Saskatchewan River Basin (NSRB) above Edmonton, AB, Canada, using the MESH (Modélisation Environnementale communautaire—Surface Hydrology) model. The bias-corrected ensemble of Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) data is used to drive MESH for two 60-year time periods, a historical baseline (1951–2010) and future projection (2041–2100), under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. The precipitation is projected to increase in every season, there is significant trend in spring (0.62) and fall (0.41) and insignificant in summer (0.008). Winter extreme minimum temperature and summer extreme maximum temperature are increasing by 2–3 °C in the near future and 5–6 °C in the far future. Annual runoff increases by 19% compared to base period. The results reveal long-term hydrological variability enabling water resource managers to better prepare for climate change and extreme events to build more resilient systems for future water demand in the NSRB.

Future climate change scenarios shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation response 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katinka Bellomo ◽  
Michela Angeloni ◽  
Susanna Corti ◽  
Jost von Hardenberg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The North ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

<div> <div> <div> <p>In climate model simulations of future climate change, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is projected to decline. However, the impacts of this decline, relative to other changes, remain to be identified. Here we address this problem by analyzing 30 idealized abrupt-4xCO2 climate model simulations. We find that in models with larger AMOC decline, there is a minimum warming in the North Atlantic, a southward displacement of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and a poleward shift of the mid-latitude jet. The changes in the models with smaller AMOC decline are drastically different: there is a relatively larger warming in the North Atlantic, the precipitation response exhibits a wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier pattern, and there are smaller displacements of the mid-latitude jet. Our study indicates that the AMOC is a major source of inter-model uncertainty, and continued observational efforts are needed to constrain the AMOC response in future climate change.</p> </div> </div> </div>

scholarly journals Analyzing the future climate change of Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) using statistical down scaling techniques

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dagnenet Fenta Mekonnen ◽  
Markus Disse
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Nile River ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Blue Nile River Basin

Abstract. Climate change is becoming one of the most arguable and threatening issues in terms of global context and their responses to environment and socio/economic drivers. Its direct impact becomes critical for water resource development and indirectly for agricultural production, environmental quality, economic development, social well-being. However, a large uncertainty between different Global Circulation Models (GCM) and downscaling methods exist that makes reliable conclusions for a sustainable water management difficult. In order to understand the future climate change of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, two widely used statistical down scaling techniques namely LARS-WG and SDSM models were applied. Six CMIP3 GCMs for LARS-WG (CSIRO-MK3, ECHAM5-OM, MRI-CGCM2.3.2, HaDCM3, GFDL-CM2.1, CCSM3) model while HadCM3 GCM and canESM2 from CMIP5 GCMs for SDSM were used for climate change analysis. The downscaled precipitation results from the prediction of the six GCMs by LARS WG showed inconsistency and large inter model variability, two GCMs showed decreasing trend while 4 GCMs showed increasing in the range from −7.9 % to +43.7 % while the ensemble mean of the six GCM result showed increasing trend ranged from 1.0 % to 14.4 %. NCCCS GCM predicted maximum increase in mean annual precipitation. However, the projection from HadCM3 GCM is consistent with the multi-model average projection, which predicts precipitation increase from 1.7 % to 16.6 %. Conversely, the result from all GCMs showed a similar continuous increasing trend for maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) in all three future periods. The change for mean annual Tmax may increase from 0.4 °c to 4.3 °c whereas the change for mean annual Tmin may increase from 0.3 °c to 4.1 °c. Meanwhile, the result from SDSM showed an increasing trend for all three climate variables (precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature) from both HadCM3 and canESM2 GCMs. The relative change of mean annual precipitation range from 2.1 % to 43.8 % while the change for mean annual Tmax and Tmin may increase from 0.4 °c to 2.9 °c and from 0.3 °c to 1.6 °c respectively. The change in magnitude for precipitation is higher in RCP8.5 scenarios than others as expected. The present result illustrate that both down scaling techniques have shown comparable and good ability to simulate the current local climate variables which can be adopted for future climate change study with high confidence for the UBNRB. In order to see the comparative downscaling results from the two down scaling techniques, HadCM3 GCM of A2 scenario was used in common. The result obtained from the two down scaling models were found reasonably comparable and both approaches showed increasing trend for precipitation, Tmax and Tmin. However, the analysis of the downscaled climate data from the two techniques showed, LARS WG projected a relatively higher increase than SDSM.

scholarly journals Projection of Future Climate Change over Japan in Ensemble Simulations Using a Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model with Urban Canopy

SOLA ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (0) ◽  
pp. 219-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akihiko Murata ◽  
Hidetaka Sasaki ◽  
Hiroaki Kawase ◽  
Masaya Nosaka ◽  
Toshinori Aoyagi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Urban Canopy ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ensemble Simulations

scholarly journals Caspian Sea south coast future climate change estimations through regional climate model

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-138
Author(s):  
Fardin Saberi Louyeh ◽  
Bohlol Alijani ◽  
Shahriar Khaledi ◽  
◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
South Coast ◽  
Future Climate Change

scholarly journals Seasonal Variability of Historical and Projected Future Climate in the Kathmandu Valley

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-120
Author(s):  
Suraj Lamichhane ◽  
Keshav Basnet ◽  
Nirmal Prasad Baral ◽  
Tek Bahadur Katuwal ◽  
Upendra Subedi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Kathmandu Valley ◽  
The Future

Anthropogenic activities are the major drivers of climate change and the climatic variability is the major threat for the world development especially in Nepal. The Kathmandu Valley (KV) is the most urbanized capital city of Nepal that has sensed the climatic variation in terms of increase in temperature, precipitation, runoff, and flood for few decades. For the adaptation of climatic variability, historical and future climate change is depicted by the trend, seasonal, and yearly variation analysis using climate models based on observed data. Historically, minimum temperatures of the all seasons are in increasing and the seasonal average rate of precipitation in the KV watershed is declining. After analysis of the projected future climate using climate model (ACCESS-CSIRO-CCAM, CNRM-CM5 and CCSM4) with two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), minimum and maximum temperature in the future (up to 2050) is increased by 0.66°C – 0.6°C in RCP 4.5 and 1.21°C –1.04°C in RCP8.5 scenario. The rise in temperature means the warmer day will be increased and the erratic behavior of the precipitation will be expected in the future and the basin is expected to be drier in dry season and wetter in wet season. The analysis provides the alternative information for the planner for better planning, management, and adaptation strategy.

Elevation-dependent drying signals under future climate change – a case study for Austria

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Klaus Haslinger ◽  
Gregor Laaha ◽  
Wolfgang Schöner ◽  
Andre Konrad ◽  
Marc Olefs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

<p>In this contribution future changes of surface water availability over the Austrian domain is investigated. We use an ensemble of downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative under moderate mitigation (RCP4.5) and Paris agreement (RCP2.6) emission scenarios. The climatic water balance and its components (rainfall, snow melt, glacier melt and potential evapotranspiration) are used as indicators for surface water availability and we focus on different altitudinal classes (lowland, mountainous and high alpine) to depict a variety of processes in complex terrain. Apart from analysing the mean changes of these quantities we also pursue a hazard risk approach by estimating changes in return periods of drought events of a given magnitude as observed in the reference period. The results show in general wetter conditions over the course of the 21<sup>st</sup> century over Austria. Considering seasonal differences, winter and spring will be getting wetter due to an increase in precipitation along with a higher rainfall/snowfall fraction as a consequence of rising temperatures. In summer only little changes in the ensemble median of the climatic water balance are visible, hence uncertainties are large due to a considerable ensemble spread. However, by analysing changes in return periods of drought events, a robust signal of increasing risk of moderate and extreme drought events during summer is apparent. It emerges from an increase in interannual variability of the climatic water balance, which likely stems from intensified land-atmosphere coupling under climate change sustaining and intensifying spring preconditions towards even wetter or dryer summers.</p>

scholarly journals Will the southern African west coast fog be affected by future climate change? Results of an initial fog projection using a regional climate model

Erdkunde ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 65 (3) ◽  
pp. 261-275 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Haensler ◽  
Jan Cermak ◽  
Stefan Hagemann ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change

scholarly journals Projection of Future Climate Change over Japan in Ensemble Simulations with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model

SOLA ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (0) ◽  
pp. 90-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akihiko Murata ◽  
Hidetaka Sasaki ◽  
Hiroaki Kawase ◽  
Masaya Nosaka ◽  
Mitsuo Oh'izumi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ensemble Simulations

scholarly journals Near-future climate change over Europe with focus on Croatia in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

2012 ◽  
Vol 52 ◽  
pp. 227-251 ◽  
Author(s):  
C Branković ◽  
M Patarčić ◽  
I Güttler ◽  
L Srnec
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Near Future

A regional climate model downscaling projection of China future climate change

2012 ◽  
Vol 41 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 1871-1884 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuyan Liu ◽  
Wei Gao ◽  
Xin-Zhong Liang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change
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