scholarly journals Specifics of modeling and simulation of the risk on the communication and ensure systems

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 17-28
Author(s):  
Vasil Kadrev ◽  
Rosen Pasarelski
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Modeling And Simulation ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Communication Systems ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Analytical Models ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Risk Assessment Models

The aim of the proposed work is to study the characteristics of modeling and simulation of risk on the ensure systems, as specific communication systems. On the ensure systems case of interest is Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). The assessment focuses on predicting the probability of failures that can lead to injury and / or loss of life and / or severe damage to the system and / or environmental damage. The result of PRA modeling is to determine the probability for a particular result, but with severe consequences, and to identify those events or components, which will most likely lead to this result. Risk assessment models are typically use to assess system safety and to decide on resource management to prevent accidents. Results of analyzes performed using analytical models, as well as simulation modeling of risk on ensure systems, under various specific initial conditions, are presented. Based on these results, the peculiarities (advantages and disadvantages), as well as the perspectives of the analytical and simulation modeling, can be seen. Based on the examined examples are illustrated the actual results, related to the principles and peculiarities of the analytical and simulation modeling in the field of the risk assessment in the ensure systems according to the sampling survey.

Shipping Oil Spill Environmental Damage Risk Assessment Methods: A Literature Review

2012 ◽  
Vol 599 ◽  
pp. 254-260
Author(s):  
Xu Bo Yu ◽  
Ming He Zhu ◽  
Cheng Fei Niu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Oil Spill ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation Model ◽  
Oil Spill Response ◽  
Damage Risk

As the certain basis of implementation of risk decision, risk assessment was used widely for reasonable allocation of scarce shipping oil spill response resources, but there is no a unified regulation for evaluation method. Three feasible methods of risk assessment, baseline assessment, detailed risk assessment, and combination of evaluation, are respectively introduced, including advantages and disadvantages. Then around the detailed risk assessment, present shipping oil spill environmental damage risk assessment study in China and abroad are then introduced in detail. Environmental damage assessment and oil spill risk assessment are introduced respectively including instantly popular appraisal methods, research hot spots and the most comprehensive evaluation model. Finally the possible direction of development of risk assessment is put forward in order to provide certain inspiration and references in developing domestic risk assessment.

scholarly journals Predicting VTE in Cancer Patients: Candidate Biomarkers and Risk Assessment Models

Cancers ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvia Riondino ◽  
Patrizia Ferroni ◽  
Fabio Zanzotto ◽  
Mario Roselli ◽  
Fiorella Guadagni
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Treatment Delays ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Current Guidelines ◽  
Impaired Quality

Risk prediction of chemotherapy-associated venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a compelling challenge in contemporary oncology, as VTE may result in treatment delays, impaired quality of life, and increased mortality. Current guidelines do not recommend thromboprophylaxis for primary prevention, but assessment of the patient’s individual risk of VTE prior to chemotherapy is generally advocated. In recent years, efforts have been devoted to building accurate predictive tools for VTE risk assessment in cancer patients. This review focuses on candidate biomarkers and prediction models currently under investigation, considering their advantages and disadvantages, and discussing their diagnostic performance and potential pitfalls.

VTE risk assessment in cancer

2016 ◽  
Vol 07 (01) ◽  
pp. 20-25
Author(s):  
I. Pabinger ◽  
C. Ay
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Medical Oncology ◽  
Clinical Importance ◽  
Cancer Surgery ◽  
Ambulatory Setting ◽  
Oncology Patients ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Increased Risk

SummaryVenous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients with cancer is associated with an increased morbidity and mortality, and its prevention is of major clinical importance. However, the VTE rates in the cancer population vary between 0.5% - 20%, depending on cancer-, treatment- and patient-related factors. The most important contributors to VTE risk are the tumor entity, stage and certain anticancer treatments. Cancer surgery represents a strong risk factor for VTE, and medical oncology patients are at increased risk of developing VTE, especially when receiving chemotherapy or immunomodulatory drugs. Also biomarkers have been investigated for their usefulness to predict risk of VTE (e.g. elevated leukocyte and platelet counts, soluble P-selectin, D-dimer, etc.). In order to identify cancer patients at high risk of VTE and to improve risk stratification, risk assessment models have been developed, which contain both clinical parameters and biomarkers. While primary thromboprophylaxis with lowmolecular- weight-heparin (LMWH) is recommended postoperatively for a period of up to 4 weeks after major cancer surgery, the evidence is less clear for medical oncology patients. Thromboprophylaxis in hospitalized medical oncology patients is advocated, and is based on results of randomized controlled trials which evaluated the efficacy and safety of LMWH for prevention of VTE in hospitalized medically ill patients. In recent trials the benefit of primary thromboprophylaxis in cancer patients receiving chemotherapy in the ambulatory setting has been investigated. However, at the present stage primary thromboprophylaxis for prevention of VTE in these patients is still a matter of debate and cannot be recommended for all cancer outpatients.

Risk assessment models with functionally different influences on natural and technical systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 89 ◽  
pp. 8-19
Author(s):  
V. A. Minaev ◽  
◽  
N. G. Topolsky ◽  
A. O. Faddeev ◽  
R. O. Stepanov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Differential Equations ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Practical Implementation ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Mathematical Functions ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
Material Values

Introduction. The complex combination of natural and technogenic factors that lead to dangerous threats to the health and life of the population, as well as to material values, creates a need to develop special mathematical models for risk assessment in the relevant territories. Herewith it is important to take into account the significant differences between these factors. The new areas of research are models that describe natural and technogenic risks using differential equations that reflect different types of functions. The article presents the development of this research area. Goals and objectives. The goal of the article is to create a model for risk assessment in natural and technical systems (PTS), based on taking into account the influences of different natural and technogenic factors on them. Objectives include justification, construction and practical implementation of the mathematical model of risk assessment in the form of differential equations system. Methods include interpretation of the considered influences on PTS in terms of risks and assessment of the dynamic interaction of natural and technogenic factors in the form of inhomogeneous differential equations. Results and discussion. Solutions for models of assessing complex natural and technogenic risks in relation to two cases that differ in NTS are found: functionally different external natural and technogenic influences on PTS, which are understood as their type, in which the effects of both natural and technogenic factors are described by different mathematical functions. Conclusions. The first model considers parabolic (reflecting threats whose intensity gradually decreases with distance from the epicenter) and linear types of influences (reflecting sudden threats). The second model considers parabolic and hyperbolic (reflecting threats, the intensity of which decreases sharply over time) types of influences. It is concluded that it is necessary to create a special computer album of complex influences on the PTS in order to prevent "replay" of various situations and develop the most effective response to emerging dangers from the EMERCOM units and other structures. Key words: model, assessment, natural and technogenic risks, functionally different influences, counteraction, EMERCOM units.

scholarly journals Cheating at Craps

2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 53-61
Author(s):  
Andrea Marin ◽  
Carey Williamson
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Modeling And Simulation ◽  
Analytical Model ◽  
Quantitative Evaluation ◽  
Mathematical Analysis ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Analytical Modeling ◽  
The World ◽  
Simulation Results

Craps is a simple dice game that is popular in casinos around the world. While the rules for Craps, and its mathematical analysis, are reasonably straightforward, this paper instead focuses on the best ways to cheat at Craps, by using loaded (biased) dice. We use both analytical modeling and simulation modeling to study this intriguing dice game. Our modeling results show that biasing a die away from the value 1 or towards the value 5 lead to the best (and least detectable) cheating strategies, and that modest bias on two loaded dice can increase the winning probability above 50%. Our Monte Carlo simulation results provide validation for our analytical model, and also facilitate the quantitative evaluation of other scenarios, such as heterogeneous or correlated dice.

scholarly journals A practical approach for evaluating the strength of knowledge supporting risk assessment models

2020 ◽  
Vol 124 ◽  
pp. 104596 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tasneem Bani-Mustafa ◽  
Zhiguo Zeng ◽  
Enrico Zio ◽  
Dominique Vasseur
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Practical Approach ◽  
Risk Assessment Models

Pseudorandom Number Generators Based on Chaotic Dynamical Systems

2001 ◽  
Vol 08 (02) ◽  
pp. 137-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janusz Szczepański ◽  
Zbigniew Kotulski
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
Communication Systems ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Pseudorandom Number ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Chaotic Dynamical Systems ◽  
Pseudorandom Number Generators ◽  
Transmission Of Information ◽  
Extreme Sensitivity ◽  
Contemporary Technology

Pseudorandom number generators are used in many areas of contemporary technology such as modern communication systems and engineering applications. In recent years a new approach to secure transmission of information based on the application of the theory of chaotic dynamical systems has been developed. In this paper we present a method of generating pseudorandom numbers applying discrete chaotic dynamical systems. The idea of construction of chaotic pseudorandom number generators (CPRNG) intrinsically exploits the property of extreme sensitivity of trajectories to small changes of initial conditions, since the generated bits are associated with trajectories in an appropriate way. To ensure good statistical properties of the CPRBG (which determine its quality) we assume that the dynamical systems used are also ergodic or preferably mixing. Finally, since chaotic systems often appear in realistic physical situations, we suggest a physical model of CPRNG.

Layers of Bias: A Unified Approach for Understanding Problems With Risk Assessment

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 185-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurel Eckhouse ◽  
Kristian Lum ◽  
Cynthia Conti-Cook ◽  
Julie Ciccolini
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Final Layer ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Using Data

Scholars in several fields, including quantitative methodologists, legal scholars, and theoretically oriented criminologists, have launched robust debates about the fairness of quantitative risk assessment. As the Supreme Court considers addressing constitutional questions on the issue, we propose a framework for understanding the relationships among these debates: layers of bias. In the top layer, we identify challenges to fairness within the risk-assessment models themselves. We explain types of statistical fairness and the tradeoffs between them. The second layer covers biases embedded in data. Using data from a racially biased criminal justice system can lead to unmeasurable biases in both risk scores and outcome measures. The final layer engages conceptual problems with risk models: Is it fair to make criminal justice decisions about individuals based on groups? We show that each layer depends on the layers below it: Without assurances about the foundational layers, the fairness of the top layers is irrelevant.

scholarly journals Validation of Risk Assessment Models for Predicting the Incidence of Breast Cancer in Korean Women

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Won Min ◽  
Myung-Chul Chang ◽  
Hae Kyung Lee ◽  
Min Hee Hur ◽  
Dong-Young Noh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Korean Women ◽  
Risk Assessment Models
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