scholarly journals On the Statistical Reflection of Long-Term Growth in Agricultural Production

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 36-47
Author(s):  
D. S. Ternovsky ◽  
V. Ya. Uzun

The article presents the results of a study aimed at proving the existence of systematic error in traditional calculations of long-term growth rates of agricultural production based on chain indices of agricultural production. According to the authors, the article also introduces a more accurate assessment of its dynamics with the account to the structure of the relationship between prices and the volume of agricultural production. The paper describes a theoretical model that is a methodological basis for the study and explains the discrepancy in assessing the dynamics of agricultural production using chain indices and indexes at constant prices. It allows establishing differences in the ratios of the Laspeyres, Paasche, and Lowe indices for crop and livestock production, due to factors in the formation of demand and the complex structure of the relationship between the price level and the volume of production. The adequacy of the constructed theoretical model is proved based on aggregated data that eliminated the influence of incompleteness of the initial information. As a result, it was established that livestock production is characterized by time-distributed changes in prices and quantity of products, which makes it possible to assess its dynamics using both chain indices and symmetric indices. It is proved that the dynamics of crop production cannot be adequately described using chain indices, since a positive correlation of prices of the previous period and production volumes of the current period causes an overstatement of the index in comparable prices of the previous year. Based on calculations within the proposed aggregated model, it is proved that the use of constant prices as the Lowe index weights, updated every five years, is an acceptable approximation of the Fisher symmetric index. Application of the indicated methodology for calculating the index to the data on Russian agricultural production by main types of products in 1990-2018 allowed to establish an overstatement of dynamics by 11.9%. The main difference falls on crop production (+ 19.6%), while for livestock - the differences are insignificant (-0.7%).

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 426-463 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen E. Gent ◽  
Mark J. C. Crescenzi ◽  
Elizabeth J. Menninga ◽  
Lindsay Reid

Can concerns for one’s reputation cause non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to alter their behavior to the detriment of achieving their policy goals? To answer this question, we explore the relationship between NGOs and their donors. Our theoretical model reveals that reputation can be a key piece of information in the decision to fund an NGO’s activities. Reputation can become so important to the NGO’s survival that it interferes with the long-term policy goals of the organization. As such, reputations can become a double-edged sword, simultaneously providing the information donors seek while constraining NGOs from realizing policy goals. We apply this logic to the problem of NGO accountability, which has received increasing attention in recent years, and demonstrate that the tools used by donors to improve accountability can trigger unintended consequences. We illustrate this strategic dynamic with two types of NGO activity: water improvement and international crisis mediation.


2021 ◽  
Vol 937 (3) ◽  
pp. 032081
Author(s):  
Vladimir Fedorov ◽  
Oleg Bunchikov ◽  
Evgeniya Kapelist

Abstract The article examines the issues of agricultural production by the agrarians of the Russian Federation in the context of import substitution and their contribution to the formation of food independence in the region. The dynamics of agricultural production in such sectors as crop and livestock production has been analyzed. In recent years, thanks to new innovative technologies in crop production, there has been a positive trend towards an increase in gross harvest, as well as an increase in crop yields. So, in particular, for more than thirty years of the analyzed period of time, gross agricultural production increased by 6110.4 billion rubles, and in the sectors crop and livestock production there was an increase in production by 3276.8 billion rubles. and by 2833.8 billion rubles. These indicators were influenced by such innovative developments in crop production as binary crops, new varieties of agricultural crops, as well as a significant increase in the use of fertilizers on agricultural land.


2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (91) ◽  
pp. 23-27
Author(s):  
M. Shulskyi ◽  
R. Komaniak

The article analyzes the production of agricultural products by economic entities of Lviv region during the period of 2000–2017. Changes in the production of volumes of products by agrarian business entities during the period under review reflect certain trends in the areas of their functioning. Thus, in particular, as a result of the research, it was established that the volumes of agricultural production produced by all categories of farms increased in 2017 compared to 2000 by 40.9%, and from 2016 by 6.1%, including: crop production, respectively, in %: 77.2 and 7.7 and livestock production – by 4.1; 3.5 The study of the volumes of agrarian production in the context of the main producers shows that the agricultural enterprises have significantly increased production, and the households have made minor changes. At the same time, there were solid trends in the dynamical increase in the share of agricultural production produced by agricultural enterprises and the decrease in its production by households. Appropriate trends also occurred in the productive use of agricultural land (production per 100 hectares of agricultural land). Thus, agricultural enterprises on these indicators considerably exceed the economy of the population. The above data in Table 2 confirms the specific digital indicators. On this occasion, we note that when in 2000 agricultural enterprises produced agrarian products per 100 hectares of agricultural land, UAH thous.: 98.3; including: crop production 75.6 and livestock production 22.7, then in 2017, these indicators respectively were: 1284.2; 889.9 and 391.3, or this increase for the analysis period was: times: 13.0; 11.8 and 17.2. As far as households are concerned, there is a slightly different trend: in 2017 in comparison with 2000 there were processes of reduction of these relative indicators and they made in 2017 when comparing their values with the level of 2000, respectively, %: 64.0; 80, and 49.5. Thus, the results of the conducted research indicate that in the agricultural production of Lviv region intensive development processes of large agrarian formations and slowing down of small farms. These positive trends will continue to evolve and will continue to develop until optimal relationships are established between large and small forms of management.


Author(s):  
Mufaro Andrew Matandare ◽  
Patricia Masego Makepe ◽  
Lekgatlhamang Setlhare ◽  
Jonah Bajaki Tlhalefang

There are few studies in Botswana which have examined the relationship between agriculture and economic growth. The uniqueness of this study is grounded in investigating disintegrated agriculture components into crop production and livestock production and investigating their nexus with economic growth. This study estimated the short and long term effects between crop production, livestock production and economic growth in Botswana for the period 1990 to 2017. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) bounds testing approach was employed to investigate the stated relationship. Study findings from the ARDL bound testing approach confirm evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between crop production, livestock production and economic growth. Results indicated that livestock production has a positive and significant impact on economic growth both in the short run and long run. On the other hand crop production has a positive and significant impact on economic growth only in the long run. Efforts towards supporting agricultural sector growth should be emphasized to promote agricultural sector productivity in a bid to forge a move away from dependence on imports of food in Botswana. To enhance economic growth, in both the short run and long run, the government of Botswana and all relevant stakeholders should invest in and promote livestock production. In the long term, policies that foster crop production are essential for economic growth.


Author(s):  
Omid Bozorg-Haddad ◽  
Mohammad-Reza Rajabi ◽  
Hugo A. Loáiciga

Abstract Land use planning is defined as the regulation of the relationship between space and human activities. Space occupied by human settlements, farmland and forests, parks, fallow land, rivers and lakes, and by transportation networks constitutes a network of areas dedicated to land uses such as agriculture, forestry, rangeland, industry, mining, recreation, and fishing. Land use planning is a comprehensive and long-term approach to planning human relations and their activities in space; it is the task of regulating and coordinating the strategies and general orientations of sectors, and it is the foundation of economies and human activities. The purpose of land use planning is to achieve an optimal distribution of economic and social activities. Land use selection and management are commonly done without regard to the carrying capacity of the land which, when exceeded, results in economic losses and in a reduction of environmental quality. The overall goal of land use planning is to achieve the optimal use of the land within the national interest framework. Accordingly, formulating a successful plan for managing the development of a country requires proper attention to the roles of geography and land use. Creation of a suitable balance between the Earth and its use by human activities can be achieved by proper land management. The increasing importance of environmental issues and human alteration of natural environments calls for sustainable development and land use practices that conserve natural resources while benefiting society and the environment. Nowadays, due to many factors such as climate change, population growth, changing standards of living, poverty, access to education, and mismanagement of natural and water resources, there is a need to diversify food and agricultural production in a variety of ways. Overseas cultivation is one of them, and it has potential for improving agricultural production. The practice of overseas cultivation by a country means planting and harvesting of a variety of agricultural products in other countries to be sold in its domestic market or in foreign markets. There are five basic principles that underline the success of overseas cultivation involving any group of countries: (1) mutual respect for the governance of all countries; (2) making and abiding by agreements between the countries; (3) non-interference in the internal problems of each country and respect for the territorial integrity of all countries; (4) optimal use of human resources and capacities to support agricultural activities and trade; and (5) expanding security and military cooperation.


Agriculture ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 54
Author(s):  
Dong Hee Suh ◽  
Charles B. Moss

This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural sector’s resource allocation and production decisions. This paper uses the differential systems with quasi-fixity to evaluate the complete agricultural production system, which examines the input and output linkages in terms of elasticities. The differential systems are estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation technique based on the two-step profit-maximizing procedure in theory. The results reveal that livestock production requires more intermediate inputs, but crop production depends on all the inputs, such as labor, capital, and intermediate inputs. In addition, the results show that input demand is inelastic, indicating that the agricultural sector has little flexibility in adjusting the demand for inputs in response to changes in input prices. Substitutable relationships among labor, capital, and intermediate inputs exist, which may reduce the pressures on production costs when input prices rise. Regarding the quasi-fixed input, land expansion changes the composition of labor and intermediate inputs, showing that the agricultural sector reduces the intensive margin when it pursues the extensive margin. Furthermore, the results show that agricultural supply is not very responsive to the respective price changes. Along with the inelastic output supply, there exist substitutable relationships between livestock and crop supply, showing that relative price changes can alter output composition in supply. The agricultural sector also reallocates more land areas into crop production rather than livestock production.


Author(s):  
Daniel Kopta

The first part of the paper deals with the influence of individual commodities on the profitability and risks of farms. Production structure was given thought share of twelve basic crops in total agricultural production yield. Volume of accumulated profit for five-year income was chosen as viability criterion. The research did not show that specialization in one of the commodities had significantly influenced achieved profitability. The only exception is the production of milk, which clearly lead to lower profitability. Production structure determined the risk of farms. Farms were constantly threatened by both negative profitability, and also steep fluctuations of cash flow (in other of long-term positive profitability), leading to temporary loss of solvency. The analysis showed that different types of production structures lead to different types of threats. The probability of falling into production losses, or that the loss is so great that not even cover variable costs (a farm finds itself under the point of termination of production) was calculated using the EaR method. The results again supported previous findings. Loss is highly likely to be achieved in commodities of animal production. For commodities of crop production the probability of loss was roughly a half, but the probability of exceeding a period of variable costs is higher.


Author(s):  
I. B. Sorokin ◽  
A. V. Gaag ◽  
Iu. V. Chudinova ◽  
E. A. Sirotina

The paper reveals the experimental results of long-term agroecological monitoring of agricultural land, conducted by Tomsk state agrochemical service, and experiments on designing the measures to improve efficiency of acidic arable land. In Tomsk region, 83% of arable land is acidic and the degree of acidity increases annually. Every 10 years weighted average pH is reduced on 0.1-0.2 units; the area of acidic soils increases. There is an urgent need for liming these soils in order to improve efficiency of agricultural production in Tomsk region. According to the calculations, the region requires 3,248 million tons of chalky flour. The region has its own large deposits of limestone, for example Kamenskoe (61 million tons), located 50 km from Tomsk, where it is possible to produce valuable meliorant, increasing efficiency of agricultural production. The authors make case, that for successful development of agricultural production in Tomsk region, it is necessary to design and implement long-term target program “Chalking of acid soils in Tomsk region”, which assumes compensation for agricultural producers for the part of the cost of liming; design and technical support of works; local production of limestone meliorants. Implementation of the acidic soil liming program will increase annual crop production in Tomsk region on 54.9 - 129.2 thousand tons of grain units, therefore it will increase annual income on 494.1 - 1162.8 million rubles (in 2017 prices), as well as ensure further increase in agricultural land fertility with high fertilizer efficiency, product quality and profitability.


2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mónica Gómez-Suárez

This study establishes the relationship among three concepts (attachment, love, and engagement) that have attracted the interest of both practitioners and researchers lately. Based on the consumer–brand relationship literature, a theoretical model is proposed. Using data obtained from a survey to 320 consumers from Madrid (Spain), the results show that only two constructs actually exist: attachment and active engagement, with love being part of attachment (passion) or engagement (long-term relationship). Thus, emotional attachment must be based on emotions that generate captivation. This admiration activates engagement, turning the consumer into the best brand promoter.


Ekonomika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 73-84
Author(s):  
Sanjin Ivanović ◽  
Lana Nastić ◽  
Marko Jeločnik

Investments are precondition for profitable, efficient and sustainable agricultural production. As a consequence of market liberalization Serbian farmers are competing with EU and neighbouring farmers, therefore it is important to compare investments in Serbian farms with investments in farms in neighbouring countries which have already became EU members (Croatia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria). The goal of this research was to analyse investments in the most important farm types in Serbia (mixed type of farms and farms specialized in crop production) and to compare it with appropriate investments in above mentioned countries. To achieve this goal authors used FADN methodology and relevant EU and Serbian databases and publications. The research results revealed that investments in Serbian farms are similar or even higher comparing to investments in observed countries, although level of investment's subsidies in Serbia is modest. Net investments are especially high for mixed Serbian farms, allowing development of even less present livestock production types. Future research should be directed towards evidence and comparison of subsidies on investments according to FADN methodology in Serbia and EU countries.


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