scholarly journals Macroeconomic factors, working capital management, and firm performance—A static and dynamic panel analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarfraz Hussain ◽  
Van Chien Nguyen ◽  
Quang Minh Nguyen ◽  
Huu Tinh Nguyen ◽  
Thu Thuy Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Firm Performance ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Panel Analysis ◽  
Working Capital ◽  
Cash Conversion Cycle ◽  
The Exchange Rate

AbstractThe aim of the study is to explore the interaction effect of macroeconomics indicators, and working capital flows on financial performance in a developing economy. By using the static and dynamic approach of panel analysis, it has been shown that there is a relationship between the components of working capital and the gross profit and cash conversion duration. Second, while interest rates used as an interaction variable with the average payable days have adverse effects, firm performance would decrease if interest rates increase. The average payable duration extends; instead of primarily regressing, the average payable period positively correlates with firm performance. The conversion cycle of cash has a negative relationship, but it reverses its actions after using interest rate interaction. There is a negative relationship with gross profit in the simple regression exchange rate and cash conversion cycle while using the second interaction variable with the cash conversion cycle, has positive effects. In addition, the exchange rate gets higher to increase the cash conversion length, financial performance will be increased. In addition, the exchange rate gets higher to increase the cash conversion length, financial performance will be increased. This study receives new results, the exchange rate increases, companies that can pay early to payable will get higher firm performance while exchange rate and the interest rate have a significant role in changing the firm performance.

scholarly journals Effect of macroeconomic variables on systemic risk: Evidence from Vietnamese economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 217-228
Author(s):  
Thi Xuan Huong Tram ◽  
Nguyen Thi Thanh Hoai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares

This paper aims to find out the relationship between systemic risk in Vietnam and the effects of macroeconomic factors, including exchange rate, interest rates, and economic growth. We collect data from the Vietnamese stock market, specifically 29 listed financial firms (banks, insurance companies, and securities firms) for the period 2010-2018. The analysis is performed in two steps including systematic risk measurement in Vietnam based on the Systemic Expected Shortfall (SES) method and providing evidence from analysis related to the risk determinants assessment. Besides ordinary least squares (OLS) methods, we make use of fixed-effects (FEM) estimations, random-effects (REM) estimations, and system generalized method of moments (SGMM). The empirical evidence in this paper indicates that economic growth has a negative relationship on systemic risk in Vietnam while the exchange rate has a positive impact on systemic risk, and the interest rate has a negative relationship on systemic risk in Vietnam. Future studies can address the effects of interest rate on systemic risk during this period.

scholarly journals The Effectiveness of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Ukraine since the Transition to Inflation Targeting

2019 ◽  
pp. 19-37
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Zholud ◽  
Volodymyr Lepushynskyi ◽  
Sergiy Nikolaychuk
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of monetary transmission channels in Ukraine since the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) transitioned to inflation targeting and after the central bank established its new approach to monetary policy implementation. The authors conclude that the central bank has sufficient control over short-term interest rates in the interbank market and that it uses them to influence other financial market indicators. At the same time, further transmission via the interest rate channel is constrained by weak lending and the banking system’s slow post-crisis recovery. The exchange rate channel remains the most powerful avenue of monetary transmission. After the NBU switched to a floating exchange rate and an active interest rate policy, its key rate became a means of influencing exchange rates. The exchange rate channel’s leading role is expected to gradually decrease but remains important, as is typical for small open economies.

scholarly journals Determining Firm Value in the Indonesian Banking Sub Sector

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Henny Medyawati ◽  
◽  
Muhamad Yunanto ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Dividend Policy ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Random Effect Model ◽  
Company Value ◽  
Effect Model

This study aims to find the most appropriate model for analysing the effect of financial performance, dividend policy, interest rates and the rupiah exchange rate on firm value. The research sample includes the banking sub-sector companies listed on the IDX in 2013-2019. The research method used is purposive sampling to analyse the panel data. The variables used in this study are the company value as measured by Price to Book Value (PBV), financial performance is measured by Return on Assets (ROA), dividend policy is measured by Dividend Pay-out Ratio (DPR), interest rate is measured by BI interest rate, and the rupiah exchange rate is measured by the middle rate. The results show that ROA and exchange rate affect firm value. The appropriate model used in this study is the random effect model.

scholarly journals Re-Examining the Nexus between Exchange and Interest Rates in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 47-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Mautin Oke ◽  
Koye Gerry Bokana ◽  
Olatunji Abdul Shobande
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Weak Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
National Output ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Nigeria has experienced somersault of foreign exchange policies by the Central Bank. One policy concern in recent times is to have an appropriate target of the exchange and interest rates. Therefore, this paper seeks to provide a foundation for the targeting of an appropriate exchange and interest rates for the country. Using the Johansen Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Mechanism approaches, it specifically examines the relationships among Nigeria’s weak exchange rate, its local rate of interest and world interest rate. Contrary to many studies, a control measure involving inclusion of inflation, money supply and national output in the model is done. The analysis showed an equilibrium association between exchange rate and interest rate-cum-other variables and steady rectification of deviance from long-run stability over a sequence of incomplete short-run modifications. Increase in domestic and world interest rate, inflation, money supply and GDPat equilibrium would strengthen the exchange rate. Besides, further findings showed some bidirectional causal associations among the variables. By long-run implication, the targeting of an appropriate exchange rate in Nigeria requires a tightened monetary policy that is not inflation and growth biased. However, increase in world interest rate, money supply and inflation rate must be moderate in order not to worsen the exchange rate as suggested by the short-run result. 

scholarly journals Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Periode 1999Q1-2019Q2

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-209
Author(s):  
Erric Wijaya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

The exchange rate plays an important role in influencing the level of Indonesia's international trade towards trading partner countries. This study discusses the factors that influence the exchange rate of the rupiah against dollar both in the short and long term. The variables that are suspected to influence changes in exchange rates are the inflation rate, the interest rate (SBI), world oil prices, the value of exports, and the value of imports. This research was conducted during 1999 quarter 1 to 2019 quarter 2. The results showed that there was a long-term and short-term relationship between inflation rates, interest rates, world oil prices, exports and imports to the exchange rate. In the short term, the interest rate and world oil prices have a significant effect on the exchange rate. In the long run, the inflation rate, world oil prices and imports have a significant effect on the exchange rate.

scholarly journals Money supply, interest rate, exchange rate and oil price influence on inflation in South Africa

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 594-605 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raphael Tabani Mpofu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables

Price stability is critical for South Africa’s economic development strategy, and, based on previous studies, to effectively achieve this, requires a good understanding of the relationship between inflation and selected macroeconomic variables of broad money supply, interest rate, exchange rate and oil price. Monthly data are employed from January, 1999 through September, 2010. To determine this relationship, the independent variables were tested for multicollinearity, and thereafter a multiple regression model was developed. The findings from the study show that approximately 97% of the consumer price index movement is explained by the four macroeconomic variables. The study confirms that money supply and exchange rates have a strong positive relationship with inflation and have to be managed. Interest rates and oil price, on the other hand, have a significant negative relationship with inflation and should be part of a macroeconomic policy framework. This requires managing the delicate balance between a desirable level of inflation in support of economic growth and development and an unacceptable level of inflation that leads to price instability.

scholarly journals Analisis inflasi di lihat dari permintaan dan penawaran di Indonesia Tahun 2000-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Desy Martauli ◽  
Amri Amir ◽  
Candra Mustika
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Simple Linear Regression ◽  
Public Consumption ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study aims to determine the analysis of inflation in terms of demand and supply in Indonesia in 2000-2018, the variables studied are the exchange rate, loan interest rates, world oil prices, public consumption. The type of time series data with the analytical method used in this study is using simple linear regression analysis and multiple linear regression (OLS) methods. The results of the trend of each variable inflation, exchange rate, interest rates on loans, world oil prices and public consumption fluctuate and have a tendency to increase with average inflation of 2.71%, the exchange rate of Rp. 14,143, the loan interest rate of 12.15%, the price of world oil is 91.67% and Indonesian people's consumption is 6,850,384 billion rupiah. The results of simple linear regression and multiple linear regression are shown through the simultaneous test (F test) that the exchange rate, loan interest rate, world oil price, and public consumption have a positive and significant effect on inflation in Indonesia. The results of the partial test (t-test) show that the loan interest rate and world oil prices have a positive and significant effect on inflation in Indonesia and public consumption has a negative and significant effect on inflation in Indonesia, while the exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on inflation in Indonesia. Keywords: Inflation, Exchange rate, Loan interest rate, World oil price, Community consumption

Empirical Investigation of the Effects of the Fundamentals on the Exchange Rate

2005 ◽  
pp. 83-110
Author(s):  
Juan R. Castro
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Target Zone ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Differential ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

This paper examines, by using several econometric techniques, the effects of foreign reserves and other fundamental variables on the exchange rate using the target zone theory. This paper uses monthly data for Chile from January 1979 to November 1997. The data used consists of foreign reserves, credit from the Central Bank, domestic reserves, imports, exports, claims on government, GDP, foreign liabilities, domestic and foreign interest rate. We find that the interest differential does not have any effect on depreciation, rejecting the target zone implication that the domestic interest rate can be used to manage the exchange rate. We find that foreign reserves support the exchange rate by reducing the exchange rate depreciation, and the exchange rate and foreign reserves follow a negative relationship, which supports the assumption that increasing the foreign reserves appreciates the exchange rate.

scholarly journals Kinerja Keuangan dan Faktor Ekonomi Makro sebagai Penentu Return Saham Perusahaan pada Jakarta Islamic Index

1970 ◽  
Vol 4 (01) ◽  
pp. 63-72
Author(s):  
Ressy Thusda Permala ◽  
Arles P. Ompusunggu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Return On Investment ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Earnings Per Share ◽  
The Exchange Rate

ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of return on investment, earnings per share, interest rate, exchange rate, inflation and gross domestic product on stock returns in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The sample used were 9 issuers registered in the Jakarta Islamic Index during the period of 2008- 2014. The analysis was done by multiple regression test. The results showed that the exchange rate and the gross domestic product had a significant effect on stock return, while return on investment, earnings per share, interest rate, and inflation had no effect. Based on the results of research macroeconomic factors determining stock returns on samples tested are the exchange rate and gross domestic product, but interest rates and inflation have no effect. The same is true in earnings per share and operational performance also does not affect stock returns. ABSTRAK Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis pengaruh return on investment, earning per share, suku bunga, kurs, inflasi dan product domestic bruto terhadap return saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Sampel yang digunakan sebanyak 9 emiten yang terdaftar dalam Jakarta Islamic Index selama periode 2008-2014. Analisis dilakukan dengan uji regresi berganda. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kurs dan product domestic bruto berpengaruh signifikan terhadap return saham, sedangkan return on investment, earning per share, suku bunga, dan inflasi tidak berpengaruh. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian faktor ekonomi makro penentu return saham pada sampel yang diuji adalah kurs dan product domestic bruto, tetapi suku bunga dan inflasi tidak berpengaruh. Hal yang sama terbukti pada laba per saham dan kinerja operasional juga tidak mempengaruhi return saham. JEL Classification: E44, L16

scholarly journals Interest rate and exchange rate volatility and the performance of the Nigerian informal sector: Evidence from small and medium-sized enterprises

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-32
Author(s):  
Henry Osazevbaru
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Informal Sector ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Bound Test ◽  
Ardl Bound Test

This paper investigates the joint impact of interest rate and exchange rate volatility on the performance of the informal sector in Nigeria, focusing on Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs). The annual time-series data on the exchange and interest rates for the period 1981-2018 were obtained from where exchange and interest rates volatility data were computed. The data analysis was carried out using descriptive statistics, correlation, a unit root test, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test for cointegration and the ARCH regression model. The results obtained by the ARDL bound test confirmed the presence of the long-term relationship between interest and exchange rates volatility and SMEs' performance, which suggests that all the variables of interest move together in the long run. Moreover, the ARCH regression model showed a positive impact of exchange and interest rates volatility on SMEs' performance. However, only exchange rate volatility was significant. Thus, policy makers should pursue the interest rate and exchange rate regimes that will encourage massive investments in SMEs. This, in turn, would increase the performance of SMEs. Also, the monetary authorities should implement the policies aimed at curtailing incessant volatility in the exchange rate and the interest rate so as to protect SMEs from the external perturbations of the movements of the exchange rate and the interest rate.

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