Comparative analysis of average temperature trends in Jalisco, Mexico, based on original and homogenized series to estimate signs of Climate Change

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Valentina Davydova-Belitskaya ◽  
Andrea Liliana Godínez-Carvente ◽  
René Navarro-Rodríguez ◽  
Martha Georgina Orozco-Medina
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Quality Control ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
National Level ◽  
Spatial Behavior ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

In recent decades, great attempts have been made to create high-quality climatic data sets and spatial resolution on a continental and national scale, as well as the analysis of their variability and change in daily extremes. However, in Mexico there is still no high-resolution database at a national level that complies with quality control, including the review of homogeneity of long series. This paper shows the results of variability analysis and the detection of climate change signs in the state of Jalisco, performed in a high-resolution database developed for the maximum, minimum and average temperature according to the quality control procedures of climatic records. From these two sets, the spatial behavior of annual average temperature estimated for three climatic periods was analyzed. Among the results obtained with stations which have complied with quality control, the presence of annual average temperature increases at 0.31°C in 1971-2000, 0.61°C in 1981-2010 and a very intense increase, 0.81°C for the period 1991-2010. Likewise, it was observed that the Jalisco coasts show an increase of 0.2 to 0.4°C, while the continental region registers an increase up to 0.8°C.

scholarly journals Characteristics of Climate Change in the Lancang-Mekong Sub-Region

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han Li ◽  
Wei Song
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

The Lancang-Mekong River is an important international river in Southeastern Asia. In recent years, due to climate change, natural disasters, such as drought and flooding, have frequently occurred in the region, which has a negative effect on the sustainable development of the social economy. Due to the lack of meteorological monitoring data in the six countries across the region, the study of the characteristics of climate change in this area is still scarce. In this paper, we analyze the characteristics of climate change in the Lancang-Mekong sub-region (LMSR) during 2020–2100 based on the climatic data of CMIP5, using the linear trend rate method, cumulative anomaly method, the Mann–Kendall test, and Morlet wavelet analysis. The results showed that the annual mean temperature and annual precipitation in the LMSR increased significantly. The annual average temperature in this area increased at a rate of 0.219 °C/10a (p < 0.05) and 0.578 °C/10a (p < 0.05) in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively; the annual precipitation in the area was 29.474 mm/10a (p < 0.05) and 50.733 mm/10a (p < 0.05), respectively. The annual average temperature in the region changed abruptly from low to high temperatures in 2059 for the RCP4.5 scenario and 2063 for RCP8.5. The annual precipitation in the area changed from less to more in 2051 for the RCP4.5 scenario and 2057 for RCP8.5. The results of wavelet analysis showed that the annual mean temperature in the LMSR had no significant change period at the 95% confidence level under the scenario of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Under the scenario of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the annual precipitation had a significant 3.5-year and 2.5-year periodicity, respectively. Extreme climate events tended to increase against the background of global warming, especially in high emission scenarios.

The Coincident Relationships between the Qehan Lake Area Fluctuation and the Climate Change in the Nearly 40 Years

2011 ◽  
Vol 137 ◽  
pp. 286-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xi Chun ◽  
Mei Jie Zhang ◽  
Mei Ping Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Inner Mongolia ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Changing Patterns ◽  
Annual Evaporation ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

The objective of this study is to analyse the climate changing patterns chronologically for exposing the coincident relationships between the lake area fluctuation and the climate change in Qehan lake of Abaga county of Inner Mongolia. The results show that there’s highly interrelation between the changes of the lake area and the climatic factors here, the annual average temperature and annual evaporation are negatively interrelate to the lake area fluctuation, and the annual precipitation interrelate to it is positive. The lake area has descended about 75 km2 during the nearly past 40 years. There were about two considerable lake expansions in 1973, 1998 through the generally lake area descending process.

scholarly journals Climate trends and climate change scenarios in Ho Chi Minh City

2022 ◽  
Vol 964 (1) ◽  
pp. 012009
Author(s):  
Anh Ngoc Le ◽  
Thi Nguyen Vo ◽  
Van Hong Nguyen ◽  
Dang Mau Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ho Chi Minh City ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Average Rainfall ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

Abstract This paper reviews the trends of climate and climate change scenarios in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). The linear regression method is used to determine the trend and variation of past climate (1980-2019) at Tan Son Hoa station. The annual average temperature tends to increase about 0.024°C/year (r2=0.54) and the rainfall tends to increase about 6.03 mm/year (r2=0.67). For temperature scenario, by 2030 the annual average temperature in the whole city will increase from 0.80- 0.81°C (RCP4.5) and 0.92-0.98°C (RCP8.5). By 2050, it will increase 1.23-1.33°C (RCP4.5) and 1.55-1.68°C (RCP8.5). By 2100, it will increase 1.75-1.88°C (RCP4.5) and 3.20-3.55°C (RCP8.5) compared to the base period. Regarding rainfall scenario, in 2030, the city-wide average rainfall will increase by 12-21% (RCP4.5) and by 12-17% (RCP8.5). By 2050, the average rainfall is likely to increase by 13-15% (RCP4.5) and 15-17% (RCP8.5). By 2100, the average rainfall is likely to increase by 18-22% (RCP4.5) and 20-21% (RCP8.5) compared to the base period.

scholarly journals Evolution of meteorological factors during 1980–2015 in the Daqing River Basin, North China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yufei Jiao ◽  
Jia Liu ◽  
Chuanzhe Li ◽  
Qingtai Qiu ◽  
Xiaojiao Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Rescaled Range Analysis ◽  
Main Period ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

Abstract Precipitation and temperature data, such as the homogeneity, trend, abrupt change, and periodicity, obtained at 40 meteorological stations in the Daqing River Basin from 1980 to 2015 are analyzed using the Mann–Kendall method, anomaly accumulation, Rescaled range analysis (R/S analysis) and wavelet transform. The regularity of climate change is studied to provide guidelines for the rational utilization of water resources. The results show that the annual precipitation has an insignificant upward trend and suddenly changes in 2007. The precipitation evolution can be divided into three types of periodicity, that is, 22–32, 8–16, and 3–7 year time scales, where the 28 year scale is the first main period of precipitation change. The annual average temperature shows a notable upward trend, with 1992 as the change year. The annual average temperature can be divided into three types of periodicity, that is, the 25–32, 14–20, and 5–10 year time scales, where the 28 year scale is the first main period of temperature change. In conclusion, the climate of the Daqing River Basin gradually turns into humid and hot climate. The results provide valuable reference for the assessment of the effects of climate change, and the management of water resources.

scholarly journals Contructing Climate Change Scenarios for Ho Chi Minh City

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (1S) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mai Van Khiem
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Ho Chi Minh City ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

Abstract: This article presents the results of constructing climate change scenarios for Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC)based on the climate change scenarios of Vietnam published in 2016 by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. Four high- resolution regional climate models include CCAM, clWRF, PRECIS, RegCM were used to downscale results of global climate models. The results show that the annual average temperature in HCMC tends to increase in the future compared to the baseline period 1986-2005, the increase depends on each RCP scenario. By the end of the century, the annual average temperature in HCMC had an increase of about 1.7÷1.9°C under the RCP4.5 scenario and 3.2÷3.6°C under RCP8.5.Meanwhile, annual rainfall in HCMC tends to increase in most periods under both of RCP scenarios. By the end of the century, annual rainfall in HCMC increases from 15% to 25% in the RCP4.5 scenario and 20-25% in the RCP8.5 scenario. Annual rainfall in coastal areas increases more than inland areas. Keyword: Climate change scenarios, Ho Chi Minh city

scholarly journals Climatic Variables of 50 Years and their Trends over Rajshahi and Rangpur Division

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
MG Ferdous ◽  
MA Baten
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Average Rainfall ◽  
Average Relative Humidity ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

An agro-climatic study was conducted at three regions of Rajshahi division with 50 (1961-2010) years of climatic data (temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and sunshine) to observe the climatic variability. The annual average temperature was showed decreasing trends over Rajshahi, Rangpur and Dinajpur regions by 0.0134, 0.0262 and 0.01180C/year. Annual average rainfall showed increasing trends over Rangpur and Dinajpur region by 14.971, 18.673mm/year and decreasing trends over Rajshahi region by 3.0698mm/year. Average relative humidity was showed increasing trends over Rajshahi, and Dinajpur region by 0.0261, and 0.0269%/year. Over Rangpur region, the decreasing trend was observed by 0.0599%/year. Decreasing trends of sunshine were observed for all regions. Distributions of regional average of climate factors in the study area were observed TRangpur> TRajshahi> TDinajpur, RRangpur> RDinajpur> RRajshahi, RHRangpur> RHDinajpur> RHRajshahi and SDinajpur> SRajshahi> SRangpur for temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and sunshine, respectively.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/jesnr.v4i2.10165J. Environ. Sci. & Natural Resources, 4(2): 147-150, 2011

scholarly journals Use of Historical Data to Assess Regional Climate Change

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (14) ◽  
pp. 4299-4320 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuchuan Lai ◽  
David A. Dzombak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
The United States ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Historical Climate ◽  
Climate Records ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

Abstract Time series of historical annual average temperature, total precipitation, and extreme weather indices were constructed and analyzed for 103 (for temperature indices) and 115 (for precipitation indices) U.S. cities with climate records starting earlier than 1900. Mean rate of change and related 95% confidence bounds were calculated for each city using linear regression for the full periods of record. Box–Cox transformations of some time series of climate records were performed to address issues of non-normal distribution. Thirteen cities among the nine U.S. climate regions were selected and further evaluated with adequacy diagnoses and analyses for each month. The results show that many U.S. cities exhibit long-term historical increases in annual average temperature and precipitation, although there are spatial and temporal variations in the observed trends among the cities. Some cities in the Ohio Valley and Southeast regions exhibit decreasing or statistically nonsignificant increasing trends in temperatures. Many of the cities exhibiting statistically significant increases in precipitation are in the Northeast and Upper Midwest regions. The records for the cities are individually unique in both annual and monthly change, and cities within the same climate region sometimes exhibit substantially different changes. Within the full periods of record, discernible decade-long subtrends were observed for some cities; consequently, analysis of selected shorter periods can lead to inconclusive and biased results. These statistical analyses of constructed time series of city-specific long-term historical climate records provide detailed historical climate change information for cities across the United States.

scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change on Litter Production in a Quercetum petraeae-cerris Forest in Hungary

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zsolt Kotroczó ◽  
Zsuzsa Veres ◽  
István Fekete ◽  
Mária Papp ◽  
János Attila Tóth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Decline ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Quercus Petraea ◽  
Litter Production ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Acer Campestre ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Closed Canopy ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

Abstract - Climate change is a global problem. During the last century the increase of annual average temperature was 0.68°C, while the decrease of annual average of precipitation was 83 mm in Hungary. According to the long term meteorological data of Síkfőkút forest ILTER site the annual average temperature increased while average of yearly precipitation decreased, the forest climate became warmer and dryer. These processes could considerably contribute to forest decline, not only in the Quercetum petraeae-cerris stand of Síkfőkút, but everywhere in the country. Species composition and structure of the forest have changed considerably, as 68% of sessile oak (Quercus petraea) and 16% of Turkey oak (Quercus cerris) have died. Forest decline resulted in the breaking up of the formerly closed canopy, and consequently, in the formation of gaps in the forest. In the gaps, a secondary canopy developed with tree species of less forestry value. As a consequence, mass regeneration of field maple (Acer campestre) appeard in the gaps. The formation of gaps accelerated the warming and aridity of forests. In the article we answer the following question: how did climatic change and changing forest structure influence the leaf-litter production in the last four decades?

Variations of Temperature in Hefei City in Recent 50 Years

2012 ◽  
Vol 616-618 ◽  
pp. 1496-1499
Author(s):  
Guo Wei Xu ◽  
Xin Tian Yuan ◽  
Shu Ling Huang ◽  
Yang Gao
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Summer Temperature ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Four Seasons ◽  
Temperature Observation ◽  
Significant Temperature ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

Selecting 50 years temperature observation data from1959 to 2008 and using statistical analysis, this paper revealed the characteristics of temperature variation in Hefei city. The results show that in past 50 years, the annual average temperature in Hefei city greatly increased, tendency rate of temperature change was 0.246°C/10 a, especially after 1993, the temperature increased significantly; the temperature in four seasons all increased somewhat, warming was most prominent in spring. The most significant temperature increase was in spring, winter following behind, temperature increase in autumn was not obvious, and the average summer temperature increased the most unobvious.

scholarly journals Numerical simulation of formation and preservation of Ningwu ice cave, Shanxi, China

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 2367-2395 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Yang ◽  
Y. Shi
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transfer ◽  
Heat Transfer Process ◽  
Shanxi Province ◽  
Mechanism Of Formation ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Control Factors ◽  
Tourism Resource ◽  
Ice Water ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

Abstract. Ice caves exist in locations where annual average temperature in higher than 0 °C. An example is Ningwu ice cave, Shanxi Province, the largest ice cave in China. In order to quantitatively explain the mechanism of formation and preservation of the ice cave, we use Finite Element Method to simulate the heat transfer process at this ice cave. There are two major control factors. First, there is the seasonal asymmetric heat transfer. Heat is transferred into the ice cave from outside, very inefficiently by conduction in spring, summer and fall. In winter, thermal convection occurs that transfers heat very efficiently out of the ice cave, thus cooling it down. Secondly, ice–water phase change provides a heat barrier for heat transfer into the cave in summer. The calculation also helps to evaluate effects of global warming, tourists, etc. for sustainable development of ice cave as tourism resource. In some other ice caves in China, managers installed air-tight doors at these ice caves entrance intending to "protect" these caves, but this prevent cooling down these caves in winters and these cave ices will entirely melt within tens of years.

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