scholarly journals Use of Historical Data to Assess Regional Climate Change

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (14) ◽  
pp. 4299-4320 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuchuan Lai ◽  
David A. Dzombak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
The United States ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Historical Climate ◽  
Climate Records ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

Abstract Time series of historical annual average temperature, total precipitation, and extreme weather indices were constructed and analyzed for 103 (for temperature indices) and 115 (for precipitation indices) U.S. cities with climate records starting earlier than 1900. Mean rate of change and related 95% confidence bounds were calculated for each city using linear regression for the full periods of record. Box–Cox transformations of some time series of climate records were performed to address issues of non-normal distribution. Thirteen cities among the nine U.S. climate regions were selected and further evaluated with adequacy diagnoses and analyses for each month. The results show that many U.S. cities exhibit long-term historical increases in annual average temperature and precipitation, although there are spatial and temporal variations in the observed trends among the cities. Some cities in the Ohio Valley and Southeast regions exhibit decreasing or statistically nonsignificant increasing trends in temperatures. Many of the cities exhibiting statistically significant increases in precipitation are in the Northeast and Upper Midwest regions. The records for the cities are individually unique in both annual and monthly change, and cities within the same climate region sometimes exhibit substantially different changes. Within the full periods of record, discernible decade-long subtrends were observed for some cities; consequently, analysis of selected shorter periods can lead to inconclusive and biased results. These statistical analyses of constructed time series of city-specific long-term historical climate records provide detailed historical climate change information for cities across the United States.

scholarly journals Time Series Decomposition of the Daily Outdoor Air Temperature in Europe for Long-Term Energy Forecasting in the Context of Climate Change

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1569
Author(s):  
Santiago Moreno-Carbonell ◽  
Eugenio F. Sánchez-Úbeda ◽  
Antonio Muñoz
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Outdoor Air ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Energy Forecasting ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Time Series Decomposition ◽  
Temperature Forecasting ◽  
Term Energy ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

Temperature is widely known as one of the most important drivers to forecast electricity and gas variables, such as the load. Because of that reason, temperature forecasting is and has been for years of great interest for energy forecasters and several approaches and methods have been published. However, these methods usually do not consider temperature trend, which causes important error increases when dealing with medium- or long-term estimations. This paper presents several temperature forecasting methods based on time series decomposition and analyzes their results and the trends of 37 different European countries, proving their annual average temperature increase and their different behaviors regarding trend and seasonal components.

The Coincident Relationships between the Qehan Lake Area Fluctuation and the Climate Change in the Nearly 40 Years

2011 ◽  
Vol 137 ◽  
pp. 286-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xi Chun ◽  
Mei Jie Zhang ◽  
Mei Ping Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Inner Mongolia ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Changing Patterns ◽  
Annual Evaporation ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

The objective of this study is to analyse the climate changing patterns chronologically for exposing the coincident relationships between the lake area fluctuation and the climate change in Qehan lake of Abaga county of Inner Mongolia. The results show that there’s highly interrelation between the changes of the lake area and the climatic factors here, the annual average temperature and annual evaporation are negatively interrelate to the lake area fluctuation, and the annual precipitation interrelate to it is positive. The lake area has descended about 75 km2 during the nearly past 40 years. There were about two considerable lake expansions in 1973, 1998 through the generally lake area descending process.

scholarly journals Spatial Distribution of, and Variations in, Cold Regions in China from 1961 to 2019

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 465
Author(s):  
Yumeng Wang ◽  
Jingyan Ma ◽  
Lijuan Zhang ◽  
Yutao Huang ◽  
Xihui Guo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Spatial Interpolation ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Spatial Change ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Cold Regions ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Change Characteristics ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

In this study, on the basis of the temperature data collected at 612 meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 2019, cold regions were defined using three indicators: an average temperature of <−3.0 °C during the coldest month; less than five months with an average temperature of >10 °C; and an annual average temperature of ≤5 °C. Spatial interpolation, spatial superposition, a trend analysis, and a spatial similarity analysis were used to obtain the spatial distribution of the cold regions in China from 1961 to 2019. Then, the areas of the cold regions and the spatial change characteristics were analyzed. The results reveal that the average area of the cold regions in China from 1961 to 2019 was about 427.70 × 104 km2, accounting for about 44.5% of the total land area. The rate of change of the area of the cold regions from 1961 to 2019 was −14.272 × 104 km2/10 a, exhibiting a very significant decreasing trend. On the basis of the changes between 1991–2019 and 1961–1990, the area of China’s cold regions decreased by 49.32 × 104 km2. The findings of this study provide references for studying changes in the natural environment due to climate change, as well as for studying changes on a global scale.

scholarly journals Climate trends and climate change scenarios in Ho Chi Minh City

2022 ◽  
Vol 964 (1) ◽  
pp. 012009
Author(s):  
Anh Ngoc Le ◽  
Thi Nguyen Vo ◽  
Van Hong Nguyen ◽  
Dang Mau Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ho Chi Minh City ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Average Rainfall ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

Abstract This paper reviews the trends of climate and climate change scenarios in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). The linear regression method is used to determine the trend and variation of past climate (1980-2019) at Tan Son Hoa station. The annual average temperature tends to increase about 0.024°C/year (r2=0.54) and the rainfall tends to increase about 6.03 mm/year (r2=0.67). For temperature scenario, by 2030 the annual average temperature in the whole city will increase from 0.80- 0.81°C (RCP4.5) and 0.92-0.98°C (RCP8.5). By 2050, it will increase 1.23-1.33°C (RCP4.5) and 1.55-1.68°C (RCP8.5). By 2100, it will increase 1.75-1.88°C (RCP4.5) and 3.20-3.55°C (RCP8.5) compared to the base period. Regarding rainfall scenario, in 2030, the city-wide average rainfall will increase by 12-21% (RCP4.5) and by 12-17% (RCP8.5). By 2050, the average rainfall is likely to increase by 13-15% (RCP4.5) and 15-17% (RCP8.5). By 2100, the average rainfall is likely to increase by 18-22% (RCP4.5) and 20-21% (RCP8.5) compared to the base period.

scholarly journals Urban warming in villages

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 157-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Lindén ◽  
C.S.B. Grimmond ◽  
J. Esper
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Careful Consideration ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Rural Villages ◽  
Rural Village ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
The Past ◽  
Urban Warming ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

Abstract. Long term meteorological records (> 100 years) from stations associated with villages are generally classified as rural and assumed to have no urban influence. Using networks installed in two European villages, the local and microclimatic variations around two of these rural-village sites are examined. An annual average temperature difference ($\\Delta{T}$) of 0.6 and 0.4 K was observed between the built-up village area and the current meteorological station in Geisenheim (Germany) and Haparanda (Sweden), respectively. Considerably larger values were recorded for the minimum temperatures and during summer. The spatial variations in temperature within the villages are of the same order as recorded over the past 100+ years in these villages (0.06 to 0.17 K/10 years). This suggests that the potential biases in the long records of rural-villages also warrant careful consideration like those of the more commonly studied large urban areas effects.

scholarly journals Evolution of meteorological factors during 1980–2015 in the Daqing River Basin, North China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yufei Jiao ◽  
Jia Liu ◽  
Chuanzhe Li ◽  
Qingtai Qiu ◽  
Xiaojiao Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Rescaled Range Analysis ◽  
Main Period ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

Abstract Precipitation and temperature data, such as the homogeneity, trend, abrupt change, and periodicity, obtained at 40 meteorological stations in the Daqing River Basin from 1980 to 2015 are analyzed using the Mann–Kendall method, anomaly accumulation, Rescaled range analysis (R/S analysis) and wavelet transform. The regularity of climate change is studied to provide guidelines for the rational utilization of water resources. The results show that the annual precipitation has an insignificant upward trend and suddenly changes in 2007. The precipitation evolution can be divided into three types of periodicity, that is, 22–32, 8–16, and 3–7 year time scales, where the 28 year scale is the first main period of precipitation change. The annual average temperature shows a notable upward trend, with 1992 as the change year. The annual average temperature can be divided into three types of periodicity, that is, the 25–32, 14–20, and 5–10 year time scales, where the 28 year scale is the first main period of temperature change. In conclusion, the climate of the Daqing River Basin gradually turns into humid and hot climate. The results provide valuable reference for the assessment of the effects of climate change, and the management of water resources.

scholarly journals Contructing Climate Change Scenarios for Ho Chi Minh City

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (1S) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mai Van Khiem
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Ho Chi Minh City ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

Abstract: This article presents the results of constructing climate change scenarios for Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC)based on the climate change scenarios of Vietnam published in 2016 by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. Four high- resolution regional climate models include CCAM, clWRF, PRECIS, RegCM were used to downscale results of global climate models. The results show that the annual average temperature in HCMC tends to increase in the future compared to the baseline period 1986-2005, the increase depends on each RCP scenario. By the end of the century, the annual average temperature in HCMC had an increase of about 1.7÷1.9°C under the RCP4.5 scenario and 3.2÷3.6°C under RCP8.5.Meanwhile, annual rainfall in HCMC tends to increase in most periods under both of RCP scenarios. By the end of the century, annual rainfall in HCMC increases from 15% to 25% in the RCP4.5 scenario and 20-25% in the RCP8.5 scenario. Annual rainfall in coastal areas increases more than inland areas. Keyword: Climate change scenarios, Ho Chi Minh city

scholarly journals Characteristics of Climate Change in the Lancang-Mekong Sub-Region

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han Li ◽  
Wei Song
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

The Lancang-Mekong River is an important international river in Southeastern Asia. In recent years, due to climate change, natural disasters, such as drought and flooding, have frequently occurred in the region, which has a negative effect on the sustainable development of the social economy. Due to the lack of meteorological monitoring data in the six countries across the region, the study of the characteristics of climate change in this area is still scarce. In this paper, we analyze the characteristics of climate change in the Lancang-Mekong sub-region (LMSR) during 2020–2100 based on the climatic data of CMIP5, using the linear trend rate method, cumulative anomaly method, the Mann–Kendall test, and Morlet wavelet analysis. The results showed that the annual mean temperature and annual precipitation in the LMSR increased significantly. The annual average temperature in this area increased at a rate of 0.219 °C/10a (p < 0.05) and 0.578 °C/10a (p < 0.05) in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively; the annual precipitation in the area was 29.474 mm/10a (p < 0.05) and 50.733 mm/10a (p < 0.05), respectively. The annual average temperature in the region changed abruptly from low to high temperatures in 2059 for the RCP4.5 scenario and 2063 for RCP8.5. The annual precipitation in the area changed from less to more in 2051 for the RCP4.5 scenario and 2057 for RCP8.5. The results of wavelet analysis showed that the annual mean temperature in the LMSR had no significant change period at the 95% confidence level under the scenario of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Under the scenario of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the annual precipitation had a significant 3.5-year and 2.5-year periodicity, respectively. Extreme climate events tended to increase against the background of global warming, especially in high emission scenarios.

Comparative analysis of average temperature trends in Jalisco, Mexico, based on original and homogenized series to estimate signs of Climate Change

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Valentina Davydova-Belitskaya ◽  
Andrea Liliana Godínez-Carvente ◽  
René Navarro-Rodríguez ◽  
Martha Georgina Orozco-Medina
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Quality Control ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
National Level ◽  
Spatial Behavior ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

In recent decades, great attempts have been made to create high-quality climatic data sets and spatial resolution on a continental and national scale, as well as the analysis of their variability and change in daily extremes. However, in Mexico there is still no high-resolution database at a national level that complies with quality control, including the review of homogeneity of long series. This paper shows the results of variability analysis and the detection of climate change signs in the state of Jalisco, performed in a high-resolution database developed for the maximum, minimum and average temperature according to the quality control procedures of climatic records. From these two sets, the spatial behavior of annual average temperature estimated for three climatic periods was analyzed. Among the results obtained with stations which have complied with quality control, the presence of annual average temperature increases at 0.31°C in 1971-2000, 0.61°C in 1981-2010 and a very intense increase, 0.81°C for the period 1991-2010. Likewise, it was observed that the Jalisco coasts show an increase of 0.2 to 0.4°C, while the continental region registers an increase up to 0.8°C.

scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change on Litter Production in a Quercetum petraeae-cerris Forest in Hungary

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zsolt Kotroczó ◽  
Zsuzsa Veres ◽  
István Fekete ◽  
Mária Papp ◽  
János Attila Tóth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Decline ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Quercus Petraea ◽  
Litter Production ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Acer Campestre ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Closed Canopy ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

Abstract - Climate change is a global problem. During the last century the increase of annual average temperature was 0.68°C, while the decrease of annual average of precipitation was 83 mm in Hungary. According to the long term meteorological data of Síkfőkút forest ILTER site the annual average temperature increased while average of yearly precipitation decreased, the forest climate became warmer and dryer. These processes could considerably contribute to forest decline, not only in the Quercetum petraeae-cerris stand of Síkfőkút, but everywhere in the country. Species composition and structure of the forest have changed considerably, as 68% of sessile oak (Quercus petraea) and 16% of Turkey oak (Quercus cerris) have died. Forest decline resulted in the breaking up of the formerly closed canopy, and consequently, in the formation of gaps in the forest. In the gaps, a secondary canopy developed with tree species of less forestry value. As a consequence, mass regeneration of field maple (Acer campestre) appeard in the gaps. The formation of gaps accelerated the warming and aridity of forests. In the article we answer the following question: how did climatic change and changing forest structure influence the leaf-litter production in the last four decades?

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