IMPORT SUBSTITUTION RISK MANAGEMENT CONSIDERING HARTLEY EMERGENCE INDICATOR

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 1348-1361
Author(s):  
O.V. Bulygina ◽  
◽  
A.A. Emelyanov ◽  
E.S. Yashin ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Plants ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Systemic Effect ◽  
Small Vessels ◽  
Partial Analysis ◽  
Inference Algorithms ◽  
Risk Sources ◽  
Sources Of Risks ◽  
Specific Project

Any project, especially in the field of import substitution, is subject to the risk of failure (non-implementation) for various reasons. At the same time, the process of import substitution has significant differences from innovative processes, associated, first of all, with the emergence of time and country risks. In this regard, the risk analysis is proposed to be carried out using a special rubricator of import substitution risk sources, created taking into account the specifics of a specific project. Since the statistics on import substitution projects implementation are rather scarce, especially if the substitution object is a unique hardware complex of a very high cost, then experts have to use methods of intellectual analysis, in particular, fuzzy inference algorithms. In this case, the elements of the rubricator are considered as linguistic variables characterizing the sources of risk. However, in the case of a complete or partial analysis of the entire rubricator, a systemic effect of an emergent increase in information about a possible risk arises. This is due to the fact that sources of risks can “work” in the sense of creating a risk situation, both individually and in combination. It is proposed to evaluate this effect using the Hartley indicator, which reflects how much the amount of information obtained during identifying one element of the system increases due to the systemic effect as a result of unification. Depending on the value of this indicator, two approaches can be used to assess the possibility of project risk: either the Sugeno fuzzy inference algorithm (if the value of the indicator is significant), or simpler methods (if the value of the indicator is not significant). The proposed approach to the analysis of the risks of import substitution was used by the authors when diagnosing the project of replacing ship power plants for modern small vessels of the coastal navigation zone.

Partial analysis of segmental resistances in intestinal vessels after endotoxin

1962 ◽  
Vol 202 (5) ◽  
pp. 913-918 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurice W. Meyer ◽  
Maurice B. Visscher
Keyword(s):  
Lethal Dose ◽  
Wall Tension ◽  
Shock State ◽  
E Coli ◽  
Small Vessels ◽  
Control Value ◽  
Partial Analysis ◽  
Subsequent Rise ◽  
Venous Segment ◽  
Intestinal Circulation

Hemodynamic responses of intestinal vascular segments of the dog to intravenous administration of a lethal dose (1 mg/kg) of E. coli endotoxin were investigated. Pressures were measured in large and small vessels of the intestinal and mesentery (small veins 30–60 µ in radius). Vascular radii of submucosal vessels and blood flow were determined. Changes in total resistance in the intestinal circulation after endotoxin were not uniform during the first few minutes, but there was a significant decrease at 10 min and a subsequent rise to the control value after 1 hr. At both 50 and 60 min, the resistance was increased over control in the arterial segment by 50%, increased 500% in the venous segment, and decreased 40% in the segment from small artery to venule. These circumstances would increase capillary pressure and filtration of edema fluid. Increased wall tension at reduced diameter developed in the venous segment during the secondary shock state, whereas relaxation of wall tension occurred in the arteriolar segment.

scholarly journals STATE AND PROSPECTS OF SHIP ENGINE-BUILDING IN RUSSIA

2017 ◽  
pp. 40-53
Author(s):  
Oleg Konstantinovich Bezjukov ◽  
Vladimir Anatoljevich Zhukov
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Diesel Engines ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Rotational Velocity ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Current State ◽  
Marine Engines ◽  
Marine Diesel ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Government

The course of the government of the Russian Federation for the development of the sea and river fleet is determined by a number of Federal target programs. These programs provide for the modernization of the composition of the sea, river and fishing fleet. The article provides analysis of the current state of the civil fleet of the Russian Federation, as well as an overview of engines that are part of the power plants of the vessels in service. There are considered prospects for the development of shipbuilding in Russia on the basis of plans for construction of different purpose vessels. Achieving the goal set by the fovernment should be ensured taking into account the policy of import substitution of the most important elements of sea and river technology. The authors state that the solution of the tasks is impossible without the development of ship propulsion engineering in Russia. The article presents the review of engine-building enterprises of the Russian Federation and products manufactured by them, most attention being given to engine rotational velocity and output. The authors give a comparative analysis to diesel engines produced in Russia and engines of leading foreign manufacturers, which is based on main technical and economic parameters, such as specific effective fuel consumption, average effective pressure, specific gravity, etc. The results of analysis helped to establish the most promising domestic manufacturers of diesel engines capable to compete with foreign manufacturers of marine diesel engines. The article shows the prospects of converting versatile engines produced at domestic enterprises into marine engines, with appropriate modernization of their systems and use of domestic components in their design which meet modern requirements. The article shows the most promising engines of Russian manufacturers, their technical and economic characteristics, which ensure competitiveness; gives the dimensions of advanced engines. The article contains recommendations for ensuring the developing and production of competitive marine engines intended for sea, fishing and river fleets in the Russian Federation.

A structured framework for identifying risks sources related to human resources in a 4.0 working environment perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 511-527
Author(s):  
Sorin Popescu ◽  
Roxana Santa ◽  
Florian Teleaba ◽  
Hannelore Ilesan
Keyword(s):  
Human Resources ◽  
Work Performance ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Human Resources Management ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Development Stage ◽  
Working Environment ◽  
Working Models ◽  
Risk Sources ◽  
Sources Of Risks

BACKGROUND: Research is focused on companies that offshored their production and operate in the international business environment, in the current globalized world placed generically under the 4.0 index, inspired by the fourth industrial revolution. OBJECTIVE: The paper aims to draw up a structured and multilayered framework for identifying sources of risks related to the work environment and to the human resources management in this context. METHODS: An extended analysis of information in the literature and on the web is conducted to define the mentioned conceptual structure and to identify domains, processes, and actions that should be considered hosting such risks. First filtered by the authors based on their experience as consultants and managers in international projects, results are then validated by successive feedbacks from their peers. RESULTS: Two levels of the framework are detailed, the first correlating globalization and 4.0 development stage challenges, identifying the risk sources within a matrix detailing on one dimension technological progress, governmental & legal issues, cultural patterns, and on the other, domains sensitive to risks regarding the human resource, such as work performance, working skills, working ethics & discipline, and working models, environment & tools. The second level focuses on the sources of risks arise due to a company’s digital transformation with regard to the choice of the working models configuration, employees’ recruitment & hiring, training, working planning, organization & control, and setting up working regulations. CONCLUSIONS: The results are intended to provide support for easier and more comprehensive identification of work and human resources related risks in the mentioned context.

scholarly journals Developing an ANFIS-PSO Model to Predict Mercury Emissions in Combustion Flue Gases

Mathematics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 965 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahaboddin Shamshirband ◽  
Masoud Hadipoor ◽  
Alireza Baghban ◽  
Amir Mosavi ◽  
Jozsef Bukor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Plants ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Pollution Assessment ◽  
Mercury Content ◽  
Operational Parameters ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Mercury Emissions ◽  
Power Stations ◽  
Predicted Values ◽  
Relative Errors

Accurate prediction of mercury content emitted from fossil-fueled power stations is of the utmost importance for environmental pollution assessment and hazard mitigation. In this paper, mercury content in the output gas of power stations’ boilers was predicted using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) method integrated with particle swarm optimization (PSO). The input parameters of the model included coal characteristics and the operational parameters of the boilers. The dataset was collected from 82 sample points in power plants and employed to educate and examine the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the proposed hybrid model of the ANFIS-PSO, the statistical meter of MARE% was implemented, which resulted in 0.003266 and 0.013272 for training and testing, respectively. Furthermore, relative errors between the acquired data and predicted values were between −0.25% and 0.1%, which confirm the accuracy of the model to deal non-linearity and represent the dependency of flue gas mercury content into the specifications of coal and the boiler type.

Application of the FTA in the Risk Management of Refined Oil Pipeline

2012 ◽  
Vol 226-228 ◽  
pp. 2211-2216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ling Ling Zhang ◽  
Gang Fu ◽  
Xian Fu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Fault Tree ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Refined Oil ◽  
Oil Pipeline ◽  
The Third ◽  
Risk Sources ◽  
Importance Analysis ◽  
The Third Party ◽  
Sources Of Risks

Building a fault tree for the refined oil pipeline on the basis of fault tree analysis method. By analyzing the potential risks existing in the refined oil pipeline, the main sources of risks have been figured out based on FTA. This paper aims to find out the key risk factors existing in the oil pipeline as followed: corrosion, machinery and material failure, the third-party damage and maloperation. The main risk sources and the vulnerable spots are found out through the structural importance analysis of the fault tree, including neglecting the construction supervision, corrosion detection, poor corrosion resistance, operation inspection and supervision and bad alarm system, cathodic protection failure and the third-party damage.

scholarly journals Developing an ANFIS-PSO Model to Estimate Mercury Emission in Combustion Flue Gases

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahaboddin Shamshirband ◽  
Alireza Baghban ◽  
Masoud Hadipoor ◽  
Amir Mosavi
Keyword(s):  
Power Plants ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Pollution Assessment ◽  
Mercury Content ◽  
Operational Parameters ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Power Stations ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy ◽  
Predicted Values ◽  
Relative Errors

Accurate prediction of mercury content emitted from fossil-fueled power stations is of utmost important for environmental pollution assessment and hazard mitigation. In this paper, mercury content in the output gas of power stations’ boilers was predicted using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) method integrated with particle swarm optimization (PSO). The input parameters of the model include coal characteristics and the operational parameters of the boilers. The dataset has been collected from 82 power plants and employed to educate and examine the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the proposed ANFIS-PSO model the statistical meter of MARE% was implemented, which resulted 0.003266 and 0.013272 for training and testing respectively. Furthermore, relative errors between acquired data and predicted values were between -0.25% and 0.1%, which confirm the accuracy of the model to deal nonlinearity and representing the dependency of flue gas mercury content into the specifications of coal and the boiler type.

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