ASYMMETRIC PRICE RISK RESPONSE PATTERNS IN NIGERIAN MAJOR AGRICULTURAL EXPORT COMMODITIES

Author(s):  
A.A. Adubi

This paper examine the output response of Nigeria’s export producers to price changes based on the assumption of asymmetry in price response which better reflects the realities of farmers economic behaviour. This output response is examined in the presence of price risk. Five major export crops -were studied, namely; cocoa, rubber, palm kernel, coffee and palm oil. The results indicate that farmers respond differently to increase and decrease in prices. This is& confirmation of asymmetric response. The elasticity of output response -was found to be positive and low with respect to a decrease in price. Results of the study show the need to stabilize the price of export crops and minimize its influence through the fortune of exchange rate changes or the world market price changes. This calls for a rethinking on the issue of Marketing Boards for export crop marketing.

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 1484-1520 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Crost ◽  
Joseph H Felter

Abstract Many experts see a move toward high-value export crops, such as fruits and vegetables, as an important opportunity for economic growth and poverty reduction, but little is known about the effects of export crops in fragile and conflict-affected countries. We exploit movements in world market prices combined with geographic variation in crop production to show that increases in the value of bananas, the country’s biggest export crop, caused an increase in conflict violence and insurgent-controlled territory in the Philippines. This effect was concentrated in provinces where bananas are produced in large plantations with areas greater than 25 hectares. Our results are consistent with a mechanism in which insurgents fund their operations by extorting large agricultural export firms.


1990 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 39-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger Hinson ◽  
Mooyul Huh ◽  
John G. Lee

Abstract Vegetable production can offer a high-valued cash crop alternative. While returns may be high, vegetables are perceived to have more risk than conventional row crops. This study used stochastic dominance analysis to evaluate terminal market price risk for four vegetable crops across five market locations. Results from the analysis identify differences in efficient market selection depending on the form which price risk follows. While vegetables as a whole are considered risky, substantial differences in the type of terminal market price variability existed between the commodities.


2018 ◽  
Vol 64 (No. 10) ◽  
pp. 464-475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hoang Viet

This paper aims to investigate the agricultural trade complementarity of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries on the global agricultural market over the period 1997–2015 by employing the trade complementarity index (TCI), the export similarity index (ESI), and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients for competitiveness indicators. The results indicate that: (i) the ASEAN countries’ agricultural export patterns are weakly complementary in matching the regional import demands; while (ii) they are relatively complementary in exporting agricultural products to the world market; (iii) the countries’ agricultural competitiveness patterns are more affected by and benefited from the global integration than the regional integration; and (iv) the countries, moreover, tend to become more substitutable over time. The research results suggest that the ASEAN countries should cooperate and utilise the internal markets to enhance the competitiveness and predominantly focus on the external global markets.


Author(s):  
Wioletta Wróblewska ◽  
Eugenia Czernyszewicz

The aim of the study was to assess the level and volatility of prices of blueberry obtained in the farm (in wholesale on the domestic market and in export) and on the wholesale market during 2007-2016, due to choice of distribution channel. The level, direction and intensification of price changes were analyzed. The study shows that the prices of blueberry at the producer level were characterized by greater volatility than the wholesale market. Prices obtained by the producers on wholesale on the domestic market were significantly lower than in exports and in the wholesale market, on average in the analyzed period accounted for only 69% of the export price and 52% of the wholesale market price. Regardless of where the price comes from,the highest price for fruits was obtained in September, and the lowest in August, which is the month of the largest supply of fruits on the market.


2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arvydas Jadevicius ◽  
Simon Huston

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate Lithuanian house price changes. Its twin motivations are the importance of information on future house price movements to sector stakeholders and the limited number of related Lithuanian property market studies. Design/methodology/approach – The study employs ARIMA modelling approach. It assesses whether past is a good predictor of the future. It then examines issues relating to an application of this univariate time-series modelling technique in a forecasting context. Findings – As the results of the study suggest, ARIMA is a useful technique to assess broad market price changes. Government and central bank can use ARIMA modelling approach to forecast national house price inflation. Developers can employ this methodology to drive successful house-building programme. Investor can incorporate forecasts from ARIMA models into investment strategy for timing purposes. Research limitations/implications – Certainly, there are number of limitations attached to this particular modelling approach. Firm predictions about house price movements are also a challenge, as well as more research needs to be done in establishing a dynamic interrelationship between macro variables and the Lithuanian housing market. Originality/value – Although the research focused on Lithuania, the findings extend to global housing market. ARIMA house price modelling provides insights for a spectrum of stakeholders. The use of this modelling approach can be employed to improve monetary policy oversight, facilitate planning for infrastructure or social housing as a countercyclical policy and mitigate risk for investors. What is more, a greater appreciation of Lithuania housing market can act as a bellwether for real estate markets in other trade-exposed small country economies.


2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 29-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed M. Al-Baidhani

This study aims to evaluate the usefulness and relevance of accounting earnings disclosures, as the key determinant of stock price changes. The main objective is to examine whether earnings response coefficient (ERC) behaviour could explain more fully the stock price changes, as to the reason why the stock price change is not equal to the number of announced earnings. The study is done with data sets from five countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) group and Malaysia. The analysis is then grouped into developed markets: Japan, UK, Sweden, and Switzerland; and emerging markets: Malaysia and Mexico, for the period 2001-2014. Two measures of abnormal returns are regressed against the size of the announced earnings. The first regression uses measures from individual events. The second regression uses a new measure; that is, from portfolios made out of all observations sorted by size of earnings into ten portfolios for each country and combination of countries. The portfolio method used was aimed at controlling possible idiosyncratic-errors-in-variables problem using individual event measures. The results using individual-event measures resulted in reasonable ERC sizes with high R2 explanatory power, a little higher than those reported in prior studies on other countries. Importantly, portfolio-based ERC is very close to the magnitude of the earnings in some tests, which supports the famous value relevance theory in accounting. This finding is new to this literature.


2003 ◽  
pp. 72-80
Author(s):  
László Kozár

The greataest risk tograin production is fluctuation in market prices, which is over 50% over the course of a year; and year by year, as well. There are real market circumstances in the grain market, instead of state guaranteed fix prices, which was the norm under the former political system.According to the general opinion of producers, losses come from their defencelessness against buyers. The real situation is that price risk can be managed by suitable market strategy, and loss production can be avoided.Hungary has a futures market (which is organized according to the CBOT system) in the grain sector, which is an unique institute in Europe. This organisation is suitable for hedge businesses and it has convenient technical and institutional background.There are two possibilities to make hedge business. One of them is the short hedge with futures contract when the producer sells his product for long term if an acceptable profit is included in market price. In this case seller can protect himself against low market prices.This technique can be considered as professional for price risk management, but possibly has financial cost because of the weak financial situation of Hungarian producers this solution seems expensive for them.There is an other possibility in the Commodity Exchange for manage price risk, that is the option technique. This solution is suitable for insure prices as well, and has an other additional advantage, namely: there is no financial costs in this case.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Dayin Li ◽  
Lianyi Liu ◽  
Haitao Lv

The fluctuation of real estate prices has an important impact on China's economic development. Accurate prediction of real estate market price changes has become the focus of scholars. The existing prediction methods not only have great limitations on the input variables but also have many deficiencies in the nonlinear prediction. In the process of real estate market price forecasting, the priority of data and the seasonal fluctuation of housing price are important influencing factors, which are not taken into account in the traditional model. In order to overcome these problems, a novel grey seasonal model is proposed to predict housing prices in China. The main method is to introduce seasonal factor decomposition into the new information priority grey prediction model. Two practical examples are used to test the performance of the new information priority grey seasonal model. The results show that compared with the existing prediction models, this method has better applicability and provides more accurate prediction results. Therefore, the proposed model can be a simple and effective tool for housing price prediction. At the same time, according to the prediction results, this paper analyzes the causes of housing price changes and puts forward targeted suggestions.


HortScience ◽  
1991 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 599-602 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.B. Sterrett ◽  
C.W. Coale ◽  
C.P. Savage

A systems approach that included production and economic aspects was used to assess broccoli potential as an alternate enterprise for eastern Virginia. Broccoli yield and head quality were improved with 96,400 plants/ha compared to 64,500 plants/ ha. While target populations for the early harvest were achieved with either transplants or direct seeding, plant establishment was significantly reduced for direct-seeding in the main-season harvest (85% vs. 95% for transplants). Increased cost of production with transplants resulted in reduced enterprise profit (before taxes) in the early harvest, while improved plant establishment and increased yield with transplants resulted in increased enterprise profit in the main-season harvest. The systems approach assessed market price risk through estimated revenue and yield risk, providing the information needed by growers for risk management decisions associated with broccoli as an alternate enterprise.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Keiran Barbalich

<p>Fiji became independent in 1970, and functioned for 17 years under a constitution with democratic elements, including elections. Three times since 1987, however, armed force has overthrown constitutionally elected governments. Some observers see this as a failure of the consolidation of Fijian democracy, while others acknowledge the facade of Fijian democracy. Among those who acknowledge Fiji's authoritarian institutions, conflict persists as to whether authoritarianism is the inevitable product of ethnic conflict in Fijian society, or a consequence of post-colonial institutional legacies. No movement toward democracy in Fiji is likely to succeed until we understand the material foundations underlying Fiji's authoritarian politics. This thesis argues that Fiji' authoritarian political institutions, established under colonial rule, have been sustained since independence by forces in the international economy. These forces have helped to maintain the economic, social and political dominance of a Pacific-Fijian chiefly elite over Fijian society. Specially, chiefly control of the sugar industry, Fiji's principal export, has provided chiefs with sufficient patronage resources to retain their control over Fijian society through electoral politics or, at the event of undesirable electoral outcomes, through armed opposition. Through post-colonial structures, the chiefs control the land-tenure system, and through their setting and receipt of land rents, they have been the principal beneficiaries of Fiji's sugar exports. This comparatively inefficient industry, and the social and political institutions that it rests on, have survived because Fiji, as party to the European Union's Sugar Protocol, has received two-and-a-half to three times the world market price for its sugar exports between 1975 and 2009. This thesis makes its case through close textual analysis of Fiji's three constitutions, detailed inspection of Fiji's land-tenure system, and, specifically, the accounts of the Native Land Trust Board, as well as examination of the secondary literature on Fiji's sugar industry.</p>


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