scholarly journals Analysis and Forecast of novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) Cases in India: A Simplified Mathematical Model based on Growth and Recovery

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
R R Rajalaxmi ◽  
Chockalingam Aravind Vaithilingam ◽  
Gayathri Sivasubramanian ◽  
Lalitha R
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Reference Data ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
The Other ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Simplified Mathematical Model

This work analyses the different phases of Covid-19 outbreak in India and performs progress of the disease spread. The data is collected from John Hopkins epidemiological data providing the latest data from January 31,2020 to May 31, 2020. A simple mathematical model is developed to gather a quantitative picture of the epidemic spreading with limited reference data. Further, we performed an analysis and forecast of the disease spread in different phases of lock down in the country. The profound model predictions considering the overall data exhibit that the numbers to reach peak between 28 August 2020 to 6 Sep 2020. As the pandemic still increases the number of infected cases, different quarantine levels would serve as an effective measure in containing the spread much earlier than the other similar cases.

scholarly journals Analysis and Forecast of novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) Cases in India: A Simplified Mathematical Model based on Growth and Recovery

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
R R Rajalaxmi ◽  
Chockalingam Aravind Vaithilingam ◽  
Gayathri Sivasubramanian ◽  
Lalitha R
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Reference Data ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
The Other ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Simplified Mathematical Model

This work analyses the different phases of Covid-19 outbreak in India and performs progress of the disease spread. The data is collected from John Hopkins epidemiological data providing the latest data from January 31,2020 to May 31, 2020. A simple mathematical model is developed to gather a quantitative picture of the epidemic spreading with limited reference data. Further, we performed an analysis and forecast of the disease spread in different phases of lock down in the country. The profound model predictions considering the overall data exhibit that the numbers to reach peak between 28 August 2020 to 6 Sep 2020. As the pandemic still increases the number of infected cases, different quarantine levels would serve as an effective measure in containing the spread much earlier than the other similar cases.

scholarly journals Tail-Actuator Propulsion Device for Aquatic Robot

2006 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Manuello Bertetto ◽  
◽  
Maurizio Ruggiu
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Numerical Procedure ◽  
Numerical Data ◽  
Operating Principle ◽  
The Other ◽  
Kinematics And Dynamics ◽  
Experimental Characterization ◽  
Fish Propulsion ◽  
Geometrical Dimensions ◽  
Simplified Mathematical Model

In this paper an aquatic device inspired to the fish propulsion is proposed. At the first, the operating principle of the fluidic actuator and its experimental characterization are presented. Then, the results of numerous tests carried out on the integrated tail-actuator device are shown either in terms of thrust exerted or as biomorphism of its kinematics. The tests were run at several driven frequencies with different fins depending on their geometrical dimensions and compliances. On the other hand, a simplified mathematical model of the propulsion system, based on the calculation of the instantaneous tail kinematics and dynamics by means of a numerical procedure, is proposed with the aim of simulating performances either in terms of thrust exerted or kinematics behavior. Finally a discussion about the results obtained and a comparison between experimental and numerical data are presented.

scholarly journals A Mathematical Model to Study the Effect of Travel Between Two Regions on the Covid-19 Infections

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-84
Author(s):  
Mochammad Andhika Aji Pratama
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
The Other ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Significant Parameter ◽  
Numerous Model ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

COVID-19 has attracted a lot of researchers’ attention since it has emerged in Wuhan, China in December 2019. Numerous model predictions on the COVID-19 epidemic have been created in case of Wuhan and the other regions. In this paper, a new COVID-19 epidemic model between two regions is proposed. The model differentiates asymptomatic infectious compartment and symptomatic infectious compartment. It is assumed that the symptomatic population cannot infect the susceptible population due to direct isolation, but the asymptomatic population can. The symptomatic population is also assumed to be unable to travel between regions. We analyze the stability of the model using Lyapunov Function. The Basic Reproduction Number for the model is presented. The numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis are explored to determine the significant parameter of the model.

scholarly journals A Pivotal Restructuring of Modeling the Control of COVID-19 During and After Massive Vaccinations for the Next Few Years

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose B Cruz ◽  
Tirso A Ronquillo ◽  
Ralph G B Sangalang ◽  
Albertson D Amante ◽  
Divina G D Ronquillo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Closed Loop ◽  
The Other ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Loop Model ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Time Rate ◽  
Direct Observations ◽  
The Social

Abstract This paper presents a pivotal restructuring of modeling the control of COVID-19 even when massive vaccination is in progress. A new closed loop mathematical model to demonstrate how direct observations of the epidemiological compartments of population could be mapped to inputs, such that the social spread of the disease is asymptotically subdued. Mathematical details of the stabilization and robustness are included. A new engineered closed loop model is designed to control the spread of COVID-19 or its variants—that is, one input directly increases the time-rate of the compartment of population free of virus, and the other input directly changes the time-rate of the susceptible compartment of population. Both inputs have collateral opposite influences on the time-rate of the infected compartment of population. The loop is closed around the new input-output model and designed so that the outputs reach the desired asymptotes. New surges of disease spread are not possible in appropriately designed stable closed loop models. However, extensive testing, contact tracing, and medical treatment of those found infected, must be maintained.

The Political Impact of Affective Polarization: How Partisan Animus Shapes COVID-19 Attitudes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Druckman ◽  
Samara Klar ◽  
Yanna Krupnikov ◽  
Matthew Levendusky ◽  
John B. Ryan
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
American Politics ◽  
The Other ◽  
Policy Discourse ◽  
The Political ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Political Impact ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Citizens Attitudes

Affective polarization is a defining feature of 21st century American politics—partisans harbor considerable dislike and distrust of those from the other party. Does this animus have consequences for citizens’ opinions? Such effects would highlight not only the consequences of polarization, but also shed new light onto how citizens form preferences more generally. Normally, this question is intractable, but the outbreak of the novel coronavirus allows us to answer it. We find that affective polarization powerfully shapes citizens’ attitudes about the pandemic, as well as the actions they have taken in response to it. However, these effects are conditional on the local severity of the outbreak, as the effects decline in areas with high caseloads—threat vitiates partisan reasoning. Our results clarify that closing the divide on important issues requires not just policy discourse but also attempts to reduce inter-partisan hostility.

scholarly journals On the optimal control of coronavirus (2019-nCov) mathematical model; a numerical approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
N. H. Sweilam ◽  
S. M. Al-Mekhlafi ◽  
A. O. Albalawi ◽  
D. Baleanu
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Optimal Control ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Necessary Optimality Conditions ◽  
Numerical Approach ◽  
Population Number ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Theoretical Results

Abstract In this paper, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) mathematical model with modified parameters is presented. This model consists of six nonlinear fractional order differential equations. Optimal control of the suggested model is the main objective of this work. Two control variables are presented in this model to minimize the population number of infected and asymptotically infected people. Necessary optimality conditions are derived. The Grünwald–Letnikov nonstandard weighted average finite difference method is constructed for simulating the proposed optimal control system. The stability of the proposed method is proved. In order to validate the theoretical results, numerical simulations and comparative studies are given.

scholarly journals Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G. B. Almeida ◽  
T. N. Vilches ◽  
C. P. Ferreira ◽  
C. M. C. B. Fortaleza
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Severe Pneumonia ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Control Disease ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Public Health Strategies

AbstractIn 2020, the world experienced its very first pandemic of the globalized era. A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is the causative agent of severe pneumonia and has rapidly spread through many nations, crashing health systems and leading a large number of people to death. In Brazil, the emergence of local epidemics in major metropolitan areas has always been a concern. In a vast and heterogeneous country, with regional disparities and climate diversity, several factors can modulate the dynamics of COVID-19. What should be the scenario for inner Brazil, and what can we do to control infection transmission in each of these locations? Here, a mathematical model is proposed to simulate disease transmission among individuals in several scenarios, differing by abiotic factors, social-economic factors, and effectiveness of mitigation strategies. The disease control relies on keeping all individuals’ social distancing and detecting, followed by isolating, infected ones. The model reinforces social distancing as the most efficient method to control disease transmission. Moreover, it also shows that improving the detection and isolation of infected individuals can loosen this mitigation strategy. Finally, the effectiveness of control may be different across the country, and understanding it can help set up public health strategies.

The Numerical Analysis of the Velocity and Pressure Distribution of the Oil Film in Heavy Hydrostatic Thrust Bearing

2014 ◽  
Vol 541-542 ◽  
pp. 658-662
Author(s):  
Jian Li ◽  
Yuan Chen ◽  
Yang Chun Yu ◽  
Zhu Xin Tian ◽  
Yu Huang
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Numerical Analysis ◽  
Pressure Distribution ◽  
Working Conditions ◽  
Thrust Bearing ◽  
Rotation Speed ◽  
The Other ◽  
Surface Load ◽  
Oil Film ◽  
Volume Method

To study the velocity and pressure distribution of the oil film in a heavy hydrostatic thrust bearing, a mathematical model of the velocity is proposed and the finite volume method (FVM) has been used to simulate the flow field under different working conditions. Some pressure experiments were carried out and the results verified the correctness of the simulation. It is concluded that the pressure distribution varies small under different rotation speed when the surface load on the workbench is constant. But the velocity of the oil film is influenced greatly by the rotation speed. When the rotation speed of the workbench is as quick as enough, the velocity of the oil film on one radial side of the pad will be zero, that is to say the lubrication oil will be drained from the other three sides of the recess.

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