Estimating the Expected Shortfall in MYOR Stock Using the ARIMA-GARCH Model

Stocks are one of the best-known forms of investment and are still used today. In stock investment, it is necessary to know the movement and risk of loss that may be obtained from the stock investment so that investors can consider the possibility of profit. One way of calculating risk is to use the Expected Shortfall (ES). Because the stock movement is in the form of a time series, a model can be formed to predict the movement of the stock which can then be used for ES calculations using time series analysis. The purpose of the study was to determine the expected shortfall value of MYOR shares using time series analysis. The data used for this research is the daily closing price of shares for three years. In the time series analysis stage, the models used in predicting stock movements are Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) for the mean model and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) for the volatility model. The average value and variance obtained from the model are then used in calculating the ES on MYOR stock. Based on the results of the study, it was obtained that MYOR's stock had an ES of 0.050772. This means if an investment is made for MYOR shares of IDR 1,000,000.00 for 37 days (5% of 751 days) for an investment period with a 95% confidence level, the expected loss to be borne by the investor is IDR 50,772.00.

Determinants of Unemployment in the Large and Medium Industrial Sector in Indonesia

As a country with the second-highest unemployment rate, Indonesian policymakers should worry about this condition. Based on the macroeconomic perspective, unemployment is affected by the firms' labour demand. It highlights that the firm's profit or loss highly determines the labour force demand. Using the Fixed Effect Model, this study results show that the labour force significantly affects industrial output, and the changes of industrial output highly increase the labour demand in the market. However, foreign and domestic capital neither significantly reduce unemployment rate in Indonesia nor stimulate the large and medium industries to absorb labour in the market. The Government should utilize foreign and domestic capital efficiently as possible to reduce unemployment rate.

Application of Structural Equation Model to Analyze Factors Affecting Financial Planning After Retirement

Retirement is something that every working individual will experience. Retirement according to the Big Indonesian Dictionary (KBBI) is not working anymore because the term of office has finished. A person who has retired usually has the right to a pension fund. After retirement, the individual's income will decrease, but the necessities of life can increase. In order to still be able to meet the needs of life after retirement, it is necessary to have financial planning after retirement. There are several factors that influence financial planning after retirement, including income, attitude and culture. Income is an important issue in financial planning. One thing to consider carefully when planning for retirement and setting aside funds for that purpose is the estimate of the amount of money needed to have the expected quality of life in retirement. Attitude towards retirement planning is an internal psychological condition that is influenced by positive or negative assessments related to retirement planning. Cultural differences will result in different financial plans between individuals. In this study, the Structural Equation Model will be used to analyze the factors that influence financial planning after retirement for teachers in several schools in Tanah Datar Regency, West Sumatra. This study uses quantitative methods using a questionnaire as a data collection tool. Based on the collected questionnaires, simulations were carried out to obtain 170 data randomly. To facilitate data analysis, the AMOS application will be used. The results showed that these three factors had a significant effect on financial planning after retirement. The most influential factor on financial planning after retirement is culture with a parameter value of 0.639.

Does the Covid-19 Outbreak Impacts On Economic Growth? An Evidence from Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the effectS of the COVID-19 pandemic, labor, domestic direct investment (DDI), AND foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in Indonesia. The type of data used in this study is panel data, which is a combination of cross-section and THE time series data (Silvia, 2020). The cross-section data involves 34 provinces and time-series data covers the period from the first quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2021. The result found out that the regression coefficient of labor has a positive and significant effect at the 5 percent level, which means that if the number of workers increases by 1 percent, economic growth will increase by 0.03 percent. Furthermore, the FDI variable also has a significant and positive effect on economic growth in Indonesia. We can see in table 3.2 that the FDI variable is significant at the 5 percent level with a regression coefficient of 0.012, this means that an increase in FDI by 1 percent will accelerate economic growth by 0.012 percent. From the results of data processing obtained by the author, it can be seen that the DDI variable has a positive but not significant effect on economic growth in Indonesia, this can be seen from the p-value which is greater than 5 percent. The regression coefficient of -0.001 proves that the COVID-19 pandemic has a negative impact on economic growth in Indonesia. When the COVID-19 pandemic reached the territory of Indonesia, economic growth slowed by 0.001 percent.

COMPARISON OF INDONESIA'S EXPORT-IMPORT WITH CHINA AFTER THE AGREEMENT ON AGRICULTURE (AoA)

The agricultural sector is the most important sector in the Indonesian and Chinese economies. The role of this sector is not only in international trade activities, but also plays a role in the domestic economy, including food sufficiency. The agricultural policies of Indonesia and China are not only oriented to increasing agricultural productivity for trade purposes but also to improving the standard of living of the people, especially farmers. The flow of economic liberalization brought by the World Trade Organization (WTO) has become a dilemma for Indonesian and Chinese agriculture. On the one hand, the WTO accession decision opens access to wider international trade, but on the other hand, both countries must protect their agriculture through the determination of prices for agricultural products by the government. This paper aims to find out the comparison of Indonesia's exports and imports with China in the field of trade in agricultural products after the implementation of the Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) or agricultural agreements which are part of the WTO from January 1, 1995, to the present. The results of the study obtained that the comparison of Indonesia's exports and imports with China was more optimal. From the research results, it can be used as a comparison for the government in determining further policies to get maximum results.

Online Practicum Design (Praton) in Assisting Learning Process of Database Courses in the Information System Department, Universitas Terbuka, Indonesia

The development of technology is an inseparable part of human life. Through its development, technology furthermore produces various reliable tools to assist people in many ways. The technological applications can be in the forms of Google products such as Google Classroom, Google Form, and Google meet, and also other applications such as Zoom Cloud Meeting, Microsoft Teams intended to solve various kinds of problems including education field. These technological advancements are popularly used and are indeed very helpful in learning, but sometimes it can’t be hindered that technological applications are not always in accordance with the needs. For example, the practicum learning process in the Information Systems Study Program, Faculty of Science and Technology, Open University, which has no practical application yet. This is because the existing applications are not in accordance with the learning process at the Open University. So, the solution that must be done is to develop an online practicum application (Praton) in the Information Systems Study Program, Faculty of Science and Technology of the Open University. The process of developing a practicum application also cannot be done immediately, so at least there must be an application development design first. Application development design must go through several stages using a software development model. One of the models that can be used is the waterfall model with an object-based approach or commonly referred to as UML (Unified Modeling Language). The results of this software development design are in the form of a software design document and will be sent to a programmer to establish the application. With this application design, programmers will know more about the specifications of online practicum applications that suit the needs of learning process.

Determining Agricultural Premium Insurance in Malang City using Black Scholes Model

This study examines the determination of rainfall-based agricultural insurance premium prices using the Black-Scholes model. The Black-Scholes model was originally used to determine the price of European-type options. The research method used is a literature study with secondary data collection. The data used in this study are rainfall data and rice production results in the city of Malang from 2015 to 2020. Based on the results and discussion, rainfall which is strongly correlated with rice production results is in quarter 2. The premium results obtained are different according to the desired percentile. In addition to percentiles, taking R_0 also affects the premium price. When R_0=322, the premium price tends to be cheaper than R_0=271.

A Bibliometric Analysis for Lebesgue Measure Integration in Optimization

In solving mathematical problems so far, Riemann's integral theory is quite adequate for solving pure mathematics and applications problems. But not all problems can be solved using this integration, such as a discontinuous function that is not Riemann's integration. Lebesgue integral is an integration concept based on measure and can solve finite and unlimited function problems and be solved in a more general set domain. One of the bases of this integration is the Lebesgues measure includes the set of real numbers, where the length of the interval is the endpoints. The alternative use of this integral is widely used in various studies such as partial differential equations, quantum mechanics, and probabilistic analysis, requiring the integration of arbitrary set functions. This paper will show a comprehensive bibliometric survey of peer-reviewed articles referring to Lebesgue measure in integration. Search results are obtained 832 papers in the google scholar database and 997 papers using Lebesgue measure integration in optimization. It can also be seen that the research have 4 clusters and 3 clusters respectively with scattered keywords for each cluster. Finally, using bibliographic data can be obtained Lebesgues measure in integration and optimization supports many of the research and provides productive citations to citing the study.

Design of Geographic Information System Based on Android for Culinary Tourism in Pedan District, Indonesia

Pedan City is a sub-district city located in the Klaten Regency area and has always been a culinary tourism object for tourists or residents in the Pedan area and its surroundings. The main problem that arises is when there are more and more culinary attractions in the city of Pedan sub-district, but there is less detailed information about these culinary attractions. The main objevtive of this work is to provide location information tourism in the Pedan area easily and simply because it can be operated anywhere the user is using an android-based mobile device. The method used in this research is the Waterfall method. The results of the study are expected to increase culinary tourism in the city of Klaten district, especially Pedan sub-district, as well as interest for tourists or residents in the city of Pedan sub-district to be interested in visiting culinary tourism objects in the Pedan city area

Optimization of the Mean-Variance Model Investment Portfolio in Five Mining Stocks Traded on the IDX

The Mining and Energy sector is a major foreign exchange earner, provides the largest energy resource, and as an absorber of labor. In addition, most of the energy resources used in the Indonesian economy come from mining. namely oil and coal. Investment for mining and energy exploration in Indonesia needs to be a priority and continue to be encouraged to maintain the level of reserves as raw materials for future industrial development, including downstream. This study aims to measure the performance of investment portfolios in several stocks in the Mining and Energy sectors. The portfolio optimization method is carried out using the Mean-Variance model (Markowitz model). Based on the results of the analysis, it is obtained that the combination and proportion of capital allocation on several stocks in the formation of an investment portfolio that has better performance, where the optimum portfolio composition obtained a portfolio return of 0.000866205 with a portfolio variance of 0.000261104. In addition, the results of the analysis can be concluded that the return ratio can affect the model.