scholarly journals Effective Macroeconomic Model for GDP Analysis, Albanian Case

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 38
Author(s):  
Alqi Naqellari ◽  
Vladimir Mici
Keyword(s):  
Detailed Analysis ◽  
Demand Curve ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Market Model ◽  
First Year ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Price Deflator

The study aims to create a macroeconomic market model, through which to analyze nominal and real GDP, to analyze the impact of prices on GDP, create a model of aggregate demand curve, using price deflator, etc. It aims to calculate the Price Deflator and real GDP starting from 1990, as the first year of calculating the macroeconomic indicators of the Albanian economy. More detailed analysis is focused on the years 2000-2017. It has been proven that the deflator calculated by INSTAT is almost equal to the nominal GDP average of the price increase. This data was used to construct the market model with Albanian economy data, with Aggregate Price and real GDP. The new model of the aggregate market differs from the existing one. It expresses the nominal GDP curve as a listing of real GDP at and has a positive slope. This model enables a detailed analysis of nominal and real GDP can be used by anyone, and for any economy. It is recommended for the government and the Albanian institutions to apply this model, as it is effective. Statistical, econometric, analysis, synthesis, comparison, etc. methods were used in the analysis.

scholarly journals Cotton Imports and GDP of Indonesia- Cointegration Analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 149-154
Author(s):  
P. Soumya ◽  
R. A. Yeledhalli
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Use Of Technology ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The study examines the impact of cotton imports on the real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of Indonesia for a period from 1992 to 2018 using ARDL approach and Granger causality analysis. Results of the study indicated that cotton imports have negative effect on economic growth. For every 1% increase in cotton imports the real GDP decreased by 0.107% in the long run. Any disequilibrium in the model is adjusted with a high speed of adjustment of 107.7% in less than a year. Shocks and the trend are adjusted in less than one year. There is no causality between imports of cotton and the real GDP. The study suggested effort should be taken by the government to increase yield of cotton by the use of technology and also a need to initiate farmers to take up cotton farming. 

Effects of zakat on the economic growth in selected Islamic countries: empirical evidence

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Khoutem Ben Jedidia ◽  
khouloud Guerbouj
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Factor ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Muslim Countries ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to examine the impact of zakat on the economic growth for a sample of Muslim countries. As a matter of fact, Zakat is a religious tax on wealth paid annually to specified recipients. As it leads to income redistribution and increases the aggregate demand, zakat can be a growth factor in the Islamic framework. Design/methodology/approach This paper is based on a dynamic panel data model for the purpose of investigating the role of zakat in the economic growth for a sample of eight Muslim countries during the period ranging from 2004 to 2017. The general method of moments is applied. Findings The findings provide evidence that zakat stimulates the country’s growth. Indeed, as zakat funds are directed to increase consumption, investment or government expenditure, they spur on the economic growth. Moreover, the authors come to the conclusion that more trade openness allows an increase in the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. However, the broad money to GDP and population growth rate seem insignificantly associated with the economic growth for the sample considered. Practical implications The findings have substantial implications for the economic policy in Muslim countries. Authorities may further rely on zakat to boost the economic growth. First, it is essential to improve the muzakki’s knowledge on zakat to increase their intention, and so their ability and willingness to pay zakat. Second, the government intervention in both zakat collect and distribution becomes mandatory. Therefore, the contribution of zakat to the economic growth will be higher. This requires better-quality services of zakat institutions. Originality/value A few studies have empirically looked into the impact of zakat on the economic growth, especially for panel data. Hence, the present study tries to enrich the literature on this topic. It creates significant evidence regarding the relevance of zakat in Muslim countries. The findings provide empirical support that zakat is an additional growth factor in the Islamic framework.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Uncertainty Shock Impact on Macroeconomic Stability in Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 132
Author(s):  
Habtamu Girma DEMIESSIE
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Shock Effect ◽  
Food Transport ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Macroeconomic Stability

This study investigated the impact of COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty shock on the macroeconomic stability in Ethiopia in the short run period. The World Pandemic Uncertainty Index (WPUI) was used a proxy variable to measure COVID-19 Uncertainty shock effect. The pandemic effect on core macroeconomic variables like investment, employment, prices (both food & non-food prices), import, export and fiscal policy indicators was estimated and forecasted using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model. The role of fiscal policy in mitigating the shock effect of coronavirus pandemic on macroeconomic stability is also investigated. The finding of the study reveals that the COVID-19 impact lasts at least three years to shake the economy of Ethiopia. Given that the Ethiopian economy heavily relies on import to supply the bulk of its consumption and investment goods, COVID-19 uncertainty effect starts as supply chain shock, whose effect transmitted into the domestic economy via international trade channel. The pandemic uncertainty shock effect is also expected to quickly transcend to destabilize the economy via aggregate demand, food & non-food prices, investment, employment and export shocks. The overall impact of COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty shock is interpreted into the economy by resulting under consumption at least in the next three years since 2020. Therefore, the government is expected to enact incentives/policy directions which can boost business confidence. A managed expansionary fiscal policy is found key to promote investment, employment and to stabilize food & non-food prices. A particular role of fiscal policy was identified to stabilizing food, transport and communication prices. The potency of fiscal policies in stabilizing food, transport and communication prices go in line with the prevailing reality in Ethiopia where government has strong hands to control those markets directly and/or indirectly. This suggests market failure featuring COVID-19 time, calling for managed interventions of governments to promote market stabilities. More importantly, price stabilization policies of the government can have spillover effects in boosting aggregate demand by spurring investments (and widening employment opportunities) in transport/logistics, hotel & restaurant, culture & tourism and export sectors in particular.

scholarly journals Market Model with Positive Demand Curve Overthrows Marxist and Keynesian Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 59
Author(s):  
Alqi Naqellari
Keyword(s):  
Demand Curve ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Marxist Theory ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Supply Curve ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Analysis And Synthesis ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

In this paper is analyzed the demand and supply side from the perspective of Marxist theory. The supply and demand side is both analyzed with their respective characteristics in capitalism, socialism and in a mixed economy. The possibilities of a macroeconomic equilibrium by considering the following concepts such as commodity, value, price, profit are analyzed. The aim of this paper is: to develop through a non-exhaustive analysis, the common features and differences between macroeconomic models of the aggregate market in the two systems, to build the aggregate market of a macroeconomic model by taking into account these characteristics and to emphasize its importance for the economy. In conclusion, differences between concepts related to macroeconomic equilibrium were identified. A new equilibrium model for the socialist and capitalist model was built. In centralized economies, demand and supply curve lies in a parallel curve with the X-axis, were domestic product is placed. In the market economy model, the demand and supply curve has a positive slope and stretch simultaneously over the market price line. They do not intersect with each other as in the Classical and Keynesian model. This market model applies to the economy. It allows governments, central banks, research institutions, universities, various researchers, etc. to analyze macroeconomic indicators. In this paper, the model is applied to the Albanian economy. In this paper, we used the methods of analysis and synthesis, comparison and description, the method of creating virtual market models, etc.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth in South Africa: VECM Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 231
Author(s):  
Tshembhani Mackson HLONGWANE ◽  
Itumeleng Pleasure MONGALE ◽  
Lavisa TALA
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
National Development ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Fixed Capital Formation ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Fiscal policy ensures macroeconomic stability as a precondition for growth at the macro level. This study investigates the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth of South Africa from 1960 to 2014 through a Cointegrated Vector Autoregression approach. It seeks to contribute to the existing literature as well as in designing effective fiscal policy programmes which can propel economic performance. Theresults of the long run estimates revealed that government tax revenue has a positive and significant long run influence on economic growth, whereas the government gross fixed capital formation and budget deficit have a negative impact on real GDP. For that reason, the study recommends that some expansionary fiscal policy measures should be strengthened since they play a very important role in the economy so as to meet the government target of the National Development Plan Vision for 2030.

scholarly journals Effectiveness of Public Spending before and during COVID-19 Pandemic

2022 ◽  
pp. 42-49
Author(s):  
Kamelia Assenova
Keyword(s):  
Social Insurance ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Labor Costs ◽  
Negative Results ◽  
Capital Spending ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The pandemic of COVID-19 influences all sectors of the economy. It caused decreasing in produced Gross domestic product (GDP) and higher unemployment. As it is known, to overcome this negative tendency, it is possible to put in practice monetary and fiscal instruments. During the pandemic, the government tried to slow down negative economic results through public spending. With them, the government looks to be increased aggregate demand in the economy and as a result-GDP raises and unemployment reduces. The research is based on created original model for testing the impact of total public spending, capital, salary, social insurance and care, for maintenance by a consolidated fiscal program on the value of GDP. The changes of GDP measure the effectiveness of public spending. The period of research is before and during the COVID-19 crisis (2019-2020) in the case of Bulgaria. Before the pandemic the analysis shows coefficient of determination for capital spending is more significant compare with all other types of public expenditure and these cost predetermine economic growth. During the pandemic of COVID-19 public spending has used as the main instrument to overcome the negative results for the economy. For this period it found an extremely strong impact of labor costs and social care expenditure on aggregate demand. They bring more positive results to be solved health issues, but not for faster recovery of the economy.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT ON THE PANDEMIC CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 (COVID-19) ON HOUSEHOLD WELFARE IN WEST SUMATERA

Menara Ilmu ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fery Andrianus ◽  
Hefrizal Handra ◽  
Arie Sukma ◽  
Khaira Alfatih
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Regional Economy ◽  
Household Welfare ◽  
Government Assistance ◽  
Subjective Indicators ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

West Sumatera is the province with the highest number of Covid-19 casesin Sumatera Island and nationally it isin the ninth position. Similar to other events at the international and national levels, the spread of Covid-19 in West Sumatera has an impact on the regional economy. It affects not only the growth and other macroeconomic indicators but also the welfare of households and society directly. This study examines the effects of the pandemic Covid-19 on household welfare using objective and subjective indicators and observe into what extent the influence of PSBB and government assistance on community conditions during this pandemic. The results show that firstly, household welfare is above the provincial minimum wage, secondly, PSBB also affects people’s income, and lastly, not all households or communities are informed about the assistance from the government during the pandemic. Keywords: Covid-19, objective and subjective indicators, welfare, provincial minimum

scholarly journals Impact of foreign direct investment on lower silesia’s economic development

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 31-62
Author(s):  
Maciej Popławski
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
First Year ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Administrative Division ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Central Statistical ◽  
Central Statistical Office ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Lower Silesia

Abstract The paper presents research results concerning the impact of foreign direct investments on the economic development of Lower Silesia in the years 1999-2011. The first year analysed is 1999 - the year in which the new administrative division was introduced into Poland, where the number of provinces was reduced from 49 to 16, with 314 districts and 65 cities being given district rights (including communes which also accomplish the tasks of the district).1 The research takes into account the most important macroeconomic indicators presenting the region’s development, such as the GDP and investment and employment levels. These indices are based on data from the Statistical Office in Wrocław and the Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS). Data on companies and entities with foreign capital have been correlated with the above-mentioned indicators to evaluate the foreign investment influence on the region’s economy

Equity market reaction to regulatory reforms: a case study of Indian banks

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 431-464
Author(s):  
Madhvi Sethi ◽  
Dipali Krishnakumar
Keyword(s):  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Systematic Risk ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Emerging Economy ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regulatory Measures ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Regulatory Reforms

Purpose Non-performing assets (NPAs) have been a cause of concern for the banking sector across the world and have invited a lot research interest, especially for emerging economies. In India, the NPAs grew many folds and reached alarming levels in 2013. The available mechanisms, such as Corporate Debt Restructuring Scheme, were not adequate to address this issue. The Central Reserve Bank of India with the Government of India introduced various guidelines, schemes and regulations like framework for revitalizing distressed assets to tackle NPAs during the period 2013-2017. Taking the case of India, the purpose of this paper is to examine policy initiatives and analyse the impact of regulatory shocks on the equity market returns and the systematic risk of individual banking stocks using an extended version of the market model. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the authors design the experiment to explore the reaction of banking stocks to the various regulatory measures and also measure the change in systematic risk for these stocks as a result of the regulatory changes. Following the approach suggested by Soraokina and Thornton (2015), the authors use the extended market model to test the reaction of banking company stocks to the regulatory measures. Findings The study finds that banking stocks did not earn significant abnormal returns on the announcement of these measures. However, the systematic risk of the banking index reduced significantly on the introduction of regulatory measures, and this risk reduction has been primarily in the stocks of private sector banks. Research limitations/implications This paper provides insights on the equity market's short-term reaction to the reform initiatives introduced by the government. The scope of the paper is with respect to one emerging economy, India, which underwent a series of regulatory reforms to tackle the banking NPA problem. Originality/value The paper fills an important research gap where the impact of schemes and regulations is captured for an emerging economy like India. It tries to bring forth the importance of these reforms and how an investor perceives the same. This paper tests for changes in systematic risk as measured by market beta as well as measures cumulative abnormal returns associated with important events in the process of regulatory reforms happening in India from 2013 to 2017.

Investigating the Impact of the Announcement of Loan Moratorium on Stock Prices: Evidence from Indian Public Sector Banks

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-116
Author(s):  
Animesh Bhattacharjee ◽  
Madhu Kumari ◽  
Joy Das
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Index Model ◽  
Chambers Of Commerce ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Bank Stock ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

The present article applies event study methodology in an attempt to investigate the impact of the announcement of 3-month moratorium by Reserve Bank of India on Indian public sector bank equity returns. For the present study, the estimation period is considered to be 120 trading days while the event window is considered to be 21 trading days. To compute the expected returns, the study uses a single-index model or the market model proposed by Fama [Fama, E., 1976. Foundations of finance. Basic Books]. The findings of the study suggest that the market responded to the news relating to the liquidity infusion by the Reserve Bank of India, falling global indices, development of potential coronavirus vaccine, and the announcement of 3 weeks period lockdown. The study further concluded that the market anticipated that the government may announce loan moratorium since industry bodies like The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India and The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry have recommended loan moratorium in order to safeguard the business enterprises especially the micro-, small- and medium-enterprise sector. Thus, the adjustment in the bank stock prices occurred before the announcement of the 3-month loan moratorium and as a consequence the average annual return on day ED-0 is found to be insignificant.

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