Second Thoughts About Central Bank Digital Currencies

Sustained decline in central banks’ monetary liabilities (reserves and currency in circulation), which the emergency of cryptocurrencies may have hastened, has been enabled by technological innovations that over time have allowed financial institutions and their customers to execute transactions and settle their debts without resorting to central bank currency. Policymakers are concerned about their ability to guarantee public’s access to government-backed currency. This has implications for central banks’ balance sheet and income position, which central bank digital currency might reconstitute. But the introduction of central bank digital currency (CBDC) comes with its own risks and could be disruptive for financial markets. We believe that retaining the option to have access to government-guaranteed currency is of utmost importance, despite the sporadic demand for physical currency in the modern society, but it could be addressed within existing institutional structures without the introduction of CBDC. However, policy authorities are right in seeking oversight and regulation for cryptocurrencies to address the destabilizing potential of cryptocurrencies for financial markets, and they should continue modernizing payment infrastructures to bring retail settlement systems at par with cryptocurrencies in terms of settlement speed but without associated liquidity and credit risks. These steps would preserve the status quo and allow private sector to continue innovating while limiting central banks’ footprint in the financial markets.

Complex Network-Based Research on the Resilience of Rural Settlements in Sanshui Watershed

In the context of farmland afforestation and urbanization, it is necessary for the small watershed rural settlements in the hilly–gully Loess Plateau to coordinate spatiotemporal changes and take the path of resilience development. In the case of the Sanshui Watershed, this paper investigates the rural settlement systems based on complex networks, and develops a research framework of “spatial simulation–resilience evaluation–spatial planning”. The results include the evolution trends of settlement space from present to future, as well as its spatial resilience in static and dynamic states. In this study, a total of six central villages and six types of rural development are finalized, and the study area possesses a prolonged spatiotemporal resilience when 29 villages remain, thus forming an ideal spatial pattern of “rural corridor zones + characteristic towns”. The findings of this study can represent guidance for resilience development in small watershed villages and provide a basis for guiding the regional urban–rural integration, village layout, as well as resource allocation and construction.

Scenarios for development of the settlement systems of Siberia and Russian Far East until 2030

The subject of the study is the settlement systems of the Siberian and the Far East Federal Districts. This article considers the settlement system not only in the context of the spatial organization of society and the territorial organization of productive forces, but also as a derivative of the economic model of the State. Data on the dynamics of population size and density, migration indicators for the subjects of macroregions are presented, and regional types of settlement systems are structured. The importance of a qualitative change in the system of population placement in Siberia and the Far East for creating an internationally competitive network of settlements is emphasized. Within the frame of the main prospects for transformation of the Russian settlement system and its ordering there are considered perspective scenarios: "Priority" (active State regulation of settlement), "Progressive" (free self-organization of settlement) and "Inertial" (mixed transformation of settlement systems). In view of this, the typology of the "second" and "third" cities in the Siberian and Far East regions is given as a complex basis for spatial or supporting frameworks of settlement systems.

Population of Urban Settlements: Comparative Analysis of The Russian North and The Republic of Belarus

The article examines the urban population of the Russian North and the Republic of Belarus after 1989. Thepurpose of the article is to comparatively analyze the demographic dynamics of urban settlements, considering the differences between the two countries. The text provides an analysis at three levels: state, regional and at the level of urban settlements. The article presents the general dynamics of the population of Russia, its northern territories and the Republic of Belarus; shows the role of demographic components in population dynamics and their transformation at the end of the twentieth century – the beginning of the XXI century. The authors considered the effectiveness of the migration exchange of the northern territoriesof Russia and the Republic of Belarus, showing the scale of migration losses. The article analyzes the dynamics of the number and population density of urban settlements by type in 1989–2020. In terms of the number of urban settlements, small and mediumsized cities are leading, at the same time, by place of residence, most of the population lives in cities over 100 thousand people. The authors note that the Russian North is highly urbanized, surpassing both Russia and Belarus in this indicator. Particular attention is paid to the spatial analysis of the dynamics of the population of urban settlements. The study revealed patterns in thedependence of the demographic development of urban settlements on the spatial distribution. The results allow us to assess the prospects for the further development of urban settlement systems in the Russian North and in the Republic of Belarus, which will find application in strategies and measures for the spatial development of territories. Further research should be aimed at identifying differences in the demographic behavior of residents of settlements with different economic specialization.

Local changes in regional settlement systems: conditions, features, trends

Introduction. Territorial planning is a basic component of urban planning activities that can ensure a balanced development of the systems of localities. Traditional approaches assume the completeness and accuracy of the assessment of the exis­ting state of the territory. They are poorly consistent with the new features and trends of their organization at the regional level. To improve the system of making urban planning decisions, it is important to determine the characteristics of the observed processes and phenomena, to determine the causes of their occurrence and to predict the consequences. These factors determine the specifics of changes in regional systems. Materials and methods. The study was conducted because of publicly available data: legislative and regulatory acts, open cartographic sources, documents of territorial planning of the subjects of the Russian Federation, materials of urban planning design practice, published works of foreign and domestic scientists. For their generalization and analysis, system analysis, methods of theoretical modeling, and prototyping were used. Results. Based on the systematization of the latest urban planning practice, local changes in regional systems are identified as one of the leading trends. They are determined by socio-economic conditions. The influence of a complex of factors causes the peculiarities of the location of local objects on the territory and the choice of functional programs for their development. Based on the classification and analysis of the identification features of the interaction of regional settlement systems and objects, a theoretical model of their reorganization is developed. Conclusions. The formation of local urbanized formations in Russia is influenced by global trends of regionalization. They are manifested in the polarization of space, the selectivity of the design location of special objects of urban development activities, corresponding to a comprehensive account of regional specifics. New principles of urban planning are being formed in the context of the adopted national strategies, concepts and programs. They combine both the maximum stability of exis­ting systems of localities and their innovatization. This makes it possible to achieve a guaranteed improvement in the quality of life and the human environment in the process of reorganizing the systems of populated places.

How is China’s energy security affected by exogenous shocks? Evidence of China–US trade dispute and COVID-19 pandemic

The trade dispute between China and the United States (US) since 2018 and the global COVID-19 pandemic since 2020 has significantly impacted China’s economic development. As China’s energy sources heavily depend on imports, its economic viability is becoming more and more risky. This study proposes a novel conceptual framework, involving macroeconomic, industrial and geopolitical factors, to evaluate China’s energy security as a major player in the trade dispute. This study also provides a comprehensive strategy for policymakers to make better decisions on reforming renewable energy patterns to guarantee energy security and achieve geopolitical advantages. The PESTEL (political, economic, social, technical, environmental and legislative) and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analytical methods are applied to evaluate the factors and attributes of China’s energy development and energy security in the current background. The China-US bipartite game reciprocity model and the QSPM (Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix) analysis are conducted to assess which energy security strategy and policy are more suitable to deal with China-US trade dispute. To enhance energy security, China should diversify its energy supply chain, develop new sources of energy supply, advance the shale gas technology, popularise cleaner power-generation plants, increase nuclear-energy safety, introduce energy-conservation measures, promote alternative-energy vehicles, engage in international energy diplomacy, and rebuild international energy transaction and settlement systems.

Cryptocurrencies: technology, initiatives of banks and central banks, and regulatory challenges

This paper analyses the impacts of the innovation known as distributed ledger technology (DLT) on the monetary system and on financial activities. Private cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, are permissionless means of payment, based on blockchain, a form of DLT. Evaluations suggested that these private cryptocurrencies could compete with the banks payment systems and even supplant state currency. The development of these technologies has the potential to modify profoundly monetary and financial practices, but there are no indications that they may threaten the centrality of state money and the banking system in the contemporary monetary order. Major international banks have developed cryptocurrencies for settlement systems and for interbank transactions, including the so-called stablecoins, issued by highly technological companies with on par conversion into state money. Some central banks are studying the launch of state cryptocurrencies that could coexist with their fiduciary state currency and even replace their paper currency. The use of this technology results in new challenges for regulation, including the fact that cryptocurrencies can be used for money laundering and by organized crime.