scholarly journals A Mathematical Model for the Prediction of the Impact of Coronavirus(COVID­19) and Social Distancing Effect

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Data Fitting ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The World ◽  
Unique Style ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

The spread of coronavirus across the world has become a major pandemic following the Spanishflu of 1918. A mathematical model of the spread of the coronavirus with social distancing effect is studied. Amathematical model of the spread of the virus form Wuhan in China to the rest of the world is suggested andanalyzed. Another mathematical model with quarantine and social distancing factors is proposed and analyzed.Stability analysis for both models were carried out and data fitting was performed to predict the possible extinctionof the disease. The disease free equilibria of both models were locally and globally asymptotically stable. Themodels suggest that with interventions such as lock downs and social distancing the extinction of the coronaviruscan be achieved. Increasing social distancing could reduce the number of new cases by up to 30%. The paperpresents a unique style of considering both theoretical and data analysis which is rarely studied in the literature.Questions arising from this study for further research include the right time to apply interventions and the state ofpreparedness in case of similar pandemics.

A mathematical analysis of a tuberculosis epidemic model with two treatments and exogenous re-infection

2020 ◽  
pp. 2050082
Author(s):  
Mehdi Lotfi ◽  
Azizeh Jabbari ◽  
Hossein Kheiri
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Asymptotic Stability ◽  
Stable Disease ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Geometric Approach ◽  
Backward Bifurcation ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Bifurcation Phenomenon ◽  
Disease Free

In this paper, we propose a mathematical model of tuberculosis with two treatments and exogenous re-infection, in which the treatment is effective for a number of infectious individuals and it fails for some other infectious individuals who are being treated. We show that the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium coexists with a stable endemic equilibria when the related basic reproduction number is less than unity. Also, it is shown that under certain conditions the model cannot exhibit backward bifurcation. Furthermore, it is shown in the absence of re-infection, the backward bifurcation phenomenon does not exist, in which the disease-free equilibrium of the model is globally asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. The global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium, when the associated reproduction number is greater than unity, is established using the geometric approach. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate our main results.

scholarly journals A MODEL FOR CONTROL OF HIV/AIDS WITH PARENTAL CARE

2013 ◽  
Vol 06 (02) ◽  
pp. 1350006 ◽  
Author(s):  
GBENGA JACOB ABIODUN ◽  
NIZAR MARCUS ◽  
KAZEEM OARE OKOSUN ◽  
PETER JOSEPH WITBOOI
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Parental Care ◽  
Optimal Strategies ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Aids Epidemic ◽  
Quantitative Analyses ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
Hiv Aids

In this study we investigate the HIV/AIDS epidemic in a population which experiences a significant flow of immigrants. We derive and analyze a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of HIV infection among the immigrant youths and how parental care can minimize or prevent the spread of the disease in the population. We analyze the model with both screening control and parental care, then investigate its stability and sensitivity behavior. We also conduct both qualitative and quantitative analyses. It is observed that in the absence of infected youths, disease-free equilibrium is achievable and is globally asymptotically stable. We establish optimal strategies for the control of the disease with screening and parental care, and provide numerical simulations to illustrate the analytic results.

scholarly journals Modeling Transmission of Tuberculosis with MDR and Undetected Cases

2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongqi Liu ◽  
Zhendong Sun ◽  
Guiquan Sun ◽  
Qiu Zhong ◽  
Li Jiang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Theoretical Analysis ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Multidrug Resistant ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Tb Control ◽  
Disease Free

This paper presents a novel mathematical model with multidrug-resistant (MDR) and undetected TB cases. The theoretical analysis indicates that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable ifR0<1; otherwise, the system may exist a locally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium. The model is also used to simulate and predict TB epidemic in Guangdong. The results imply that our model is in agreement with actual data and the undetected rate plays vital role in the TB trend. Our model also implies that TB cannot be eradicated from population if it continues to implement current TB control strategies.

scholarly journals Stability Analysis of a Vector-Borne Disease with Variable Human Population

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ozair ◽  
Abid Ali Lashari ◽  
Il Hyo Jung ◽  
Young Il Seo ◽  
Byul Nim Kim
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Feasible Region ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Vector Borne Disease ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
Theoretical Results ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
Varying Population

A mathematical model of a vector-borne disease involving variable human population is analyzed. The varying population size includes a term for disease-related deaths. Equilibria and stability are determined for the system of ordinary differential equations. IfR0≤1, the disease-“free” equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the disease always dies out. IfR0>1, a unique “endemic” equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable in the interior of feasible region and the disease persists at the “endemic” level. Our theoretical results are sustained by numerical simulations.

scholarly journals A Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Bangkok, Thailand

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Pakwan Riyapan ◽  
Sherif Eneye Shuaib ◽  
Arthit Intarasit
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Next Generation Matrix ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In this study, we propose a new mathematical model and analyze it to understand the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangkok, Thailand. It is divided into seven compartmental classes, namely, susceptible S , exposed E , symptomatically infected I s , asymptomatically infected I a , quarantined Q , recovered R , and death D , respectively. The next-generation matrix approach was used to compute the basic reproduction number denoted as R cvd 19 of the proposed model. The results show that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R cvd 19 < 1 . On the other hand, the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium occurs if R cvd 19 > 1 . The mathematical analysis of the model is supported using numerical simulations. Moreover, the model’s analysis and numerical results prove that the consistent use of face masks would go on a long way in reducing the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Stability of a Mathematical Model of Malaria Transmission with Relapse

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hai-Feng Huo ◽  
Guang-Ming Qiu
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Recovery Rate ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Next Generation Matrix ◽  
The Government ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

A more realistic mathematical model of malaria is introduced, in which we not only consider the recovered humans return to the susceptible class, but also consider the recovered humans return to the infectious class. The basic reproduction numberR0is calculated by next generation matrix method. It is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable ifR0≤1, and the system is uniformly persistence ifR0>1. Some numerical simulations are also given to explain our analytical results. Our results show that to control and eradicate the malaria, it is very necessary for the government to decrease the relapse rate and increase the recovery rate.

THE IMPACT OF MEDIA COVERAGE ON THE DYNAMICS OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE

2008 ◽  
Vol 01 (01) ◽  
pp. 65-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
YIPING LIU ◽  
JING-AN CUI
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Compartment Model ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Globally Stable ◽  
Disease Free

In this paper, we give a compartment model to discuss the influence of media coverage to the spreading and controlling of infectious disease in a given region. The model exhibits two equilibria: a disease-free and a unique endemic equilibrium. Stability analysis of the models shows that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the reproduction number (ℝ0), which depends on parameters, is less than unity. But if ℝ0 > 1, it is shown that a unique endemic equilibrium appears, which is asymptotically stable. On a special case, the endemic equilibrium is globally stable. We discuss the role of media coverage on the spreading based on the theory results.

Assessing the impact of transmissibility on a cluster-based COVID-19 model in India

2021 ◽  
pp. 2141002
Author(s):  
Tanvi ◽  
Mohammad Sajid ◽  
Rajiv Aggarwal ◽  
Ashutosh Rajput
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Nonlinear Mathematical Model ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Number Formula ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

In this paper, we have proposed a nonlinear mathematical model of different classes of individuals for coronavirus (COVID-19). The model incorporates the effect of transmission and treatment on the occurrence of new infections. For the model, the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] has been computed. Corresponding to the threshold quantity [Formula: see text], the stability of endemic and disease-free equilibrium (DFE) points are determined. For [Formula: see text], if the endemic equilibrium point exists, then it is locally asymptotically stable, whereas the DFE point is globally asymptotically stable for [Formula: see text] which implies the eradication of the disease. The effects of various parameters on the spread of COVID-19 are discussed in the segment of sensitivity analysis. The model is numerically simulated to understand the effect of reproduction number on the transmission dynamics of the disease COVID-19. From the numerical simulations, it is concluded that if the reproduction number for the coronavirus disease is reduced below unity by decreasing the transmission rate and detecting more number of infectives, then the epidemic can be eradicated from the population.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modelling on Double Quarantine Process in the Spread and Stability of Covid-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jangyadatta Behera ◽  
Aswin Kumar Rauta ◽  
Yerra Shankar Rao ◽  
Sairam Patnaik
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Analytical Result ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

Abstract In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed on the spread and control of corona virus disease2019 (COVID19) to ascertain the impact of pre quarantine for suspected individuals having travel history ,immigrants and new born cases in the susceptible class following the lockdown or shutdown rules and adopted the post quarantine process for infected class. Set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are generated and parameters like natural mortality rate, rate of COVID-19 induced death, rate of immigrants, rate of transmission and recovery rate are integrated in the scheme. A detailed analysis of this model is conducted analytically and numerically. The local and global stability of the disease is discussed mathematically with the help of Basic Reproduction Number. The ODEs are solved numerically with the help of Runge-Kutta 4th order method and graphs are drawn using MATLAB software to validate the analytical result with numerical simulation. It is found that both results are in good agreement with the results available in the existing literatures. The stability analysis is performed for both disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium points. The theorems based on Routh-Hurwitz criteria and Lyapunov function are proved .It is found that the system is locally asymptotically stable at disease free and endemic equilibrium points for basic reproduction number less than one and globally asymptotically stable for basic reproduction number greater than one. Finding of this study suggest that COVID-19 would remain pandemic with the progress of time but would be stable in the long-term if the pre and post quarantine policy for asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals are implemented effectively followed by social distancing, lockdown and containment.

scholarly journals Dynamics of A Multi-stage Epidemic Model with and without Treatment

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 5293-5300
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Numerical Solutions ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Dynamical Behaviour ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In this paper, a non-linear mathematical model is proposed with the thought of treatment to depict the spread of infectious illness and assessed with three contamination stages. We talk about the dynamical behaviour and analytical study of the framework for the mathematical model which shows that it has two non-negative equilibrium points i.e., disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and interior(endemic) equilibrium. The outcomes show that the dynamical behaviour of the model is totally determined by the basic reproduction number. For the basic reproduction number , the disease-free equilibrium is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable under a particular parameter set. In case , the model at the interior equilibrium is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable. Finally, numerical solutions of the model corroborate the analytical results and facilitate a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters.

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