Arbeitsmarkt vor alten und neuen Herausforderungen: Die Covid-19-Pandemie und was danach kommt?

2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (11) ◽  
pp. 749-770
Author(s):  
Ulrich Walwei
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Division Of Labour ◽  
Economic Transformation ◽  
Climate Protection ◽  
Playing Field ◽  
Time Work ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Theoretical Considerations

Zusammenfassung Der Beitrag beleuchtet die Herausforderungen der sich gerade vollziehenden „transformativen Rezession“ für den Arbeitsmarkt. Nach Jahren eines scheinbar unaufhaltsamen Aufschwungs hat die Corona-Krise den Arbeitsmarkt schwer getroffen. Erwerbstätigkeit und sozialversicherungspflichtige Beschäftigung bewegten sich erstmals seit Jahren wieder nach unten und die Arbeitslosigkeit schnellte nach oben. Zusätzlich erreichte die Nutzung der Kurzarbeit ein immenses Allzeithoch. Gleichzeitig vollzieht sich eine Transformation der Volkswirtschaft. Es zeichnete sich schon seit längerem ab, dass Demographie, Digitalisierung, Klimaschutz und Verschiebungen in der internationalen Arbeitsteilung größere Veränderungen für die Wirtschaft und den Arbeitsmarkt nach sich ziehen werden. Theoretisch-konzeptionelle Überlegungen zeigen, dass aus heutiger Sicht Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt noch längere Zeit benötigen, bis wieder Vorkrisenstände erreicht werden können. Dabei liegt der Schlüssel für die Erholung nicht wie sonst üblich vorwiegend im Spielfeld der Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik, sondern auch und gerade im Bereich des Gesundheitsschutzes. Die Pandemie wird zudem dafür sorgen, dass sich die Transformation der Wirtschaft teilweise beschleunigt. Dies gilt insbesondere für die Digitalisierung, deren wirtschaftliche Vorteile während der Krise besonders zum Vorschein kamen. Andere dringliche Aufgaben wie etwa der Klimaschutz bestehen unabhängig von der Pandemie weiter fort. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird es aus arbeitsmarktpolitischer Sicht in der nahen Zukunft darauf ankommen, sowohl die Krise als auch die wirtschaftliche Transformation zu adressieren, am besten durch eine möglichst geschickte Kombination aus einer gleichermaßen konjunkturorientierten und investiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik. Abstract: The Labour Market Facing Old and New Challenges: The Covid-19-Pandemic, what’s Next? The paper discusses the challenges of the current “transformative recession” for the labour market. After years of an almost unstoppable upswing, the corona-crisis smashed the labour market. Employment went down significantly and unemployment increased. In addition, short-time work reached an all-time-peak. At the same time, the economy is confronted with a process of continuous transformation. In recent years, it became clearly apparent that demography, digitization, climate protection and changes in the international division of labour cause fundamental changes for the economy as well as the labour market. Conceptual and theoretical considerations show, that both, economy and the labour market, will take a long time to reach pre-crisis levels. However, the key for the recovery is not mainly located in the playing field of economic and fiscal policy but in the area of health protection. In addition, the pandemic will accelerate the economic transformation. This is obvious regarding digitization, which reveals its economic advantages during the pandemic. Other urgent challenges such as climate protection will definitely remain. Against this background, it will be decisive for labour market policies to address the crisis and the transformation at the same time, preferably by an intelligent combination of measures oriented at short-time impacts and long-term investment.

The Spread of Pollutants from Harbour Sludge Depots

1984 ◽  
Vol 16 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 623-633
Author(s):  
M Loxham ◽  
F Weststrate
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Molecular Diffusion ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Parameter Analysis ◽  
Migration Patterns ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Dilution Effects ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Harbour Sludge

It is generally agreed that both the landfill option, or the civil techniques option for the final disposal of contaminated harbour sludge involves the isolation of the sludge from the environment. For short time scales, engineered barriers such as a bentonite screen, plastic sheets, pumping strategies etc. can be used. However for long time scales the effectiveness of such measures cannot be counted upon. It is thus necessary to be able to predict the long term environmenttal spread of contaminants from a mature landfill. A model is presented that considers diffusion and adsorption in the landfill site and convection and adsorption in the underlaying aquifer. From a parameter analysis starting form practical values it is shown that the adsorption behaviour and the molecular diffusion coefficient of the sludge, are the key parameters involved in the near field. The dilution effects of the far field migration patterns are also illustrated.

scholarly journals Germany’s Labour Market Policies

2019 ◽  
pp. 283-303
Author(s):  
Florian Spohr
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Job Search ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
Labour Market Policies ◽  
Employment Agency ◽  
Time Work ◽  
The Government ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Deep Recession

Germany has become one of the most competitive economies in the world. Only a decade and a half ago it was widely derided as stagnant, and ridden by political paralysis in reforming its labour market policies. However, in 2002, the discovery of manipulated statistics in the German Employment Agency opened a window of opportunity to break the stalemate in corporatist policymaking. In response, the government convened a commission to design labour market policy reforms: the Hartz Committee, named for its chair, Peter Hartz. Including experts, politicians, and members from interest groups in the commission enabled the government to promote the ‘Hartz Reforms’ on the basis of expertise and compromise. Their focus was on creating incentives for seeking employment. Job search assistance and monitoring gained importance, whereas ineffective job creation and early retirement schemes were abolished or reduced. These activating reforms successfully tackled structural unemployment and increased the overall employment rate. Their success in strengthening economic resilience was demonstrated during the 2008 economic crisis, when in combination with other measures such as the extension of short-time work, and controlled unit labour costs, they led Germany’s labour market through the deep recession.

The German Labour Market Miracle

2010 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. R38-R50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jens Boysen-Hogrefe ◽  
Dominik Groll
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Minor Role ◽  
Dynamic Simulations ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Wage Moderation ◽  
Time Work ◽  
The Difference ◽  
A Minor ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Minor Reaction

This paper lays out the various reasons for the exceptional performance of the German labour market during and after the Great Recession of 2008/9. The reference point of our analysis is provided by an empirical model of both total hours worked and employment. We conduct dynamic simulations of the crisis period to assess how surprising the reaction of the labour market really was. We argue that the most important precondition for the minor reaction of employment during this crisis was the pronounced wage moderation observed in the years before, which constitutes a distinct difference to all other recessions in Germany. Beyond that, the flexibility of adjusting working time, which has increased considerably during the past ten years, facilitated a tendency to labour hoarding. In contrast, short-time work plays a minor role in explaining the difference from previous recessions, since this instrument has always been available to firms in Germany and its use has not been extraordinary compared with earlier recessions.

Corporate Transfers for Dual-Career Couples: From Gendered Tenkin to Gender-Equal Negotiations?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noriko FUJITA
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Radical Change ◽  
Division Of Labour ◽  
Dual Career ◽  
Dual Career Couples ◽  
Female Workers ◽  
Japanese Firms ◽  
Dual Careers ◽  
Domestic Roles

Abstract This qualitative-research-based article discusses corporate transfers of dual-career couples in large Japanese firms. In Japan’s internal labour market, inter-regional transfers, or tenkin, are de rigueur in many companies for purposes of training and promotion of long-term employees. Their implementation is often taken for granted because of the gendered assumption that only men are subject to tenkin. Women, who take responsibility in domestic roles, are not able to accept tenkin. Rather, they are either exempted from tenkin regardless of their wishes or forced to remain in secondary positions that require no tenkin. This gendered division of labour in tenkin has hampered women’s promotion in Japanese workplaces and hindered dual-career couples from achieving dual careers through tenkin. Using Acker’s (1990) theory of gendered organisations and Nemoto’s (2016) study of gendered practices in Japanese firms, this article elucidates the processes by which these cultural, gendered corporate transfers (a) reproduce gendered organisations, (b) are changing from dictates to negotiations in some companies where female workers are given more opportunities alongside intensification of the firms’ global competition, but (c) nevertheless continue to be in tension with dual-career families in contemporary Japan. To make a dual-career-couple model mainstream, the labour market structure that views corporate transfers as an absolute necessity needs radical change.

Hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Do short-time work schemes help workers remain in the same firm?

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
José M. Arranz ◽  
Carlos García-Serrano ◽  
Virginia Hernanz
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
Time Work ◽  
Market Status ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Labour Market Status

PurposeThis paper investigates whether short-time work (STW) schemes were successful in their objective of maintaining employment and keeping workers employed within the same firms after the onset of the financial and economic crisis in 2008.Design/methodology/approachSpanish longitudinal administrative data has been used, making it possible to identify short-time work (STW) participation not only of workers but also of employers and allowing to know the future labour market status of participants and non-participants. Accordingly, treatment and control groups are defined, and Propensity Score Matching models estimated. The dependent variable is measured as the probability that an individual remained employed with the same employer in the future (one, two and three years) after implementation of a STW arrangement.FindingsOur results suggest that treated individuals are about 5 percentage points less likely to remain working with the same employer one year later than similar workers, and this negative effect of participation increases over time. Thus, STW schemes would not have the assumed effect of preventing unemployment by keeping the participants employed relative to non-participants.Research limitations/implicationsAs our analysis is based on the comparison of the employment trajectories of participant and non-participant workers in firms that have used STW arrangements, our findings cannot be interpreted as the job saving effects of either macro or micro studies carried out previously.Practical implicationsThe analysis carried out in the paper is complementary to the country-level and firm-level approaches that have been used in the empirical literature.Originality/valueWe adopt a worker-level approach. This is novel since no previous study has focused attention on the impact of STW participation on the subsequent labour market status of workers.

scholarly journals Optical variability of quasars: a damped random walk

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (S304) ◽  
pp. 395-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Željko Ivezić ◽  
Chelsea MacLeod
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Optical Wavelength ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Asymptotic Variability ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Quasar Variability ◽  
Best Fit

AbstractA damped random walk is a stochastic process, defined by an exponential covariance matrix that behaves as a random walk for short time scales and asymptotically achieves a finite variability amplitude at long time scales. Over the last few years, it has been demonstrated, mostly but not exclusively using SDSS data, that a damped random walk model provides a satisfactory statistical description of observed quasar variability in the optical wavelength range, for rest-frame timescales from 5 days to 2000 days. The best-fit characteristic timescale and asymptotic variability amplitude scale with the luminosity, black hole mass, and rest wavelength, and appear independent of redshift. In addition to providing insights into the physics of quasar variability, the best-fit model parameters can be used to efficiently separate quasars from stars in imaging surveys with adequate long-term multi-epoch data, such as expected from LSST.

scholarly journals Securing Jobs in Times of Recession. The German Experience during the Financial Crisis 2008/2009

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 59
Author(s):  
Martin Dietz ◽  
Michael Stops ◽  
Ulrich Walwei
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Sharp Decrease ◽  
Working Time ◽  
Public Subsidies ◽  
Time Work ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Short Time

As a consequence of the global financial crisis Germany experienced the deepest slowdown of its economy since World War II. However, given the sharp decrease of GDP the German labour market was quite stable compared to previous recessions when the labour market response was stronger. Therefore, there are empirical indications for temporary labour hoarding and it can be shown that the most significant factor for securing jobs was a reduction of working time. At the beginning of the crisis the conditions for short-time work became more attractive to firms. Therefore, non-subsidised forms of working time reductions or labour hoarding were complemented by public subsidies in the form of short-time work.

LONG-TERM PREDICTION MARKETS

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 43-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Werner Antweiler
Keyword(s):  
Time Horizon ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Analytic Framework ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Participation Constraint ◽  
Winner Takes All ◽  
Individual Traders ◽  
Short Time

Most prediction markets focus on events with a short time horizon such as forthcoming elections. Contracts are typically traded for periods measured in weeks, but rarely exceeding a year. There is great interest in using prediction markets for events with a long time horizon such as climate change outcomes. This paper develops an analytic framework for exploring the time horizon limitations of prediction markets and suggests a simple, practical solution: the market operator must invest cash holdings in a diversified financial portfolio that generates returns that reflect individual traders’ heterogeneous attitudes towards risk and return. The analytic framework identifies how the presence of an opportunity cost for investors reduces market liquidity through a participation constraint and biases the equilibrium price through an inherent money-at-risk asymmetry between long and short positions in a prediction market. This paper explores continuous outcome markets, which are relevant for science-related long-term predictions, along with familiar winner-takes-all markets.

Stabilities of Microstructure and Mechanical Properties during Long-Term Aging on FGH95 Superalloy

2017 ◽  
Vol 898 ◽  
pp. 523-527
Author(s):  
Xu Qing Wang ◽  
Guo Jun Ma ◽  
Zi Chao Peng
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Properties ◽  
Aging Time ◽  
Residual Strain ◽  
Thermal Stabilities ◽  
Good Thermal Stability ◽  
Microstructure And Mechanical Properties ◽  
Long Time ◽  
High Temperature Tensile ◽  
Short Time

Thermal stabilities of microstructure and mechanical properties during long-term aging of 550°C/1500h, 650°C/1500h and 700°C/500h have been investigated on superalloy FGH95, in order to characterize the long-term properties of this alloy on service temperature. The results showed that the secondary and tertiary gamma-prime maintained good thermal stability at 550°C and 650°C with aging time up to 1500h. However, during 700°C aging for 500h, the secondary and tertiary γ′ both grew obviously, besides, the shape of secondary γ′ has turned from circular to square. The hardness, high-temperature tensile and creep residual strain had good stability at 550°C and 650°C with aging time up to 1500h. However, the creep residual strain apparently increased when the alloy aged at 700°C for 500h, which means that the FGH95 is suitable to be used for long time below 650°C, and short time at 700°C.

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