scholarly journals COMPUTATIONAL EXPERIMENT TECHNOLOGY IN RESEARCH OF POWER INDUSTRIES WHEN IMPLEMENTING THREATS TO ENERGY SECURITY

Author(s):  
Алексей Геннадьевич Массель ◽  
Тимур Габилович Мамедов ◽  
Наталья Ивановна Пяткова

В работе представлен алгоритм проведения вычислительного эксперимента на примере реализации одной из угроз энергетической безопасности «Недостаток инвестиций в отрасли энергетики» с использованием когнитивных и экономико-математических моделей. Рассмотрены особенности включения инвестиционной составляющей в модель оптимизации вариантов развития ТЭК с учетом энергетической безопасности. Представлена когнитивная модель для анализа угрозы «Недостаток инвестиций в отрасли энергетики». Дается описание ПК ИНТЭК-А, обеспечивающего возможность интеграции когнитивных и математических моделей. The paper presents an algorithm of computational experiment on the example of the implementation of one of the threats to energy security "Lack of investment in the energy sector" using cognitive and economic-mathematical models. The features of the inclusion of the investment component in the model of optimization of options for the development of the fuel and energy complex, taking into account energy security, are considered. A cognitive model for analyzing the threat “Lack of investment in the energy sector” is presented. The description of PC INTEC-A, which provides the ability to integrate cognitive and mathematical models, is given.

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 609-619
Author(s):  
Elvis Ojeda Kalluni ◽  
Elmira A Chadaeva

The study of fuel and energy complex of Mexico occupies a very important place in the world’s leading research centers. Among Russian and foreign studies there are a number of works that consider the problems and peculiarities of fuel and energy complex of the countries of Latin America including Mexico. This article is devoted to the analysis of Mexico’s energy reform and use their experiences to transform the energy sector of the countries of South America. Presents the history of the Mexican energy reform. Discusses basic principles of energy reform and energy security of the country. It also examines the factors that Mexico should include in its energy policy and management system to ensure the safe delivery of energy across the country. Offers a brief overview of the current state of TEK of Mexico. Mexico has a large and varied potential for producing energy from renewable sources. With the recent opening of the energy sector, the country has the necessary conditions to attract major investments to develop projects on renewable energy. The liberalization of the sector allows Mexico to meet the growing energy demand and to diversify its productive matrix, creating at the same time as energy security and reduce greenhouse gases, positively affecting the environment. Reform of the energy sector of Mexico and the analysis of the sector in this country can be of great importance for the transformation of the energy sector in many countries of the region, especially in places such as Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela.


2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 122-137
Author(s):  
V. A. Stennikov ◽  
V. О. Golovshchikov ◽  
E. A. Romanovich

 This article presents a research study in the field of formation and implementation of Russian oil and gas policy, which has a decisive role in the development and functioning of the country's energy sector, its energy security, as well as for increasing revenues.  The current relations between actors in the European gas market, which is expected to remain an important sector in Russian economy in the medium term, are assessed in the contexts of the risks and threats experienced by gas exporters. The role and place of the Russian Federation in gas export to China as an important element of the Russian Eastern Gas Policy and Energy Security Doctrine is discussed. Following an analysis of information from official sources, research publications and reports presented in the mass media, a substantiation of the urgency of the problem and the directions of its solution is given. The conducted study revealed that the oil and gas sector in Russia remains the most important component of the country's fuel and energy complex. Stable export of oil and gas is key for the oil and gas industry, contributing to the country's energy security. It is noted that, in the medium term, Russia will preserve at least 30% of the European gas market. At the same time, the energy policy of the European Union, anti-Russian economic sanctions and the excess of gas supply over demand are forcing Russia to significantly reduce the cost of exported gas in order to maintain its segment in the European gas market. The forecasted risks and threats to the "western vector" of the Russian gas policy determine the necessity to diversify gas export markets. In this regard, it seems reasonable to implement of the "Eastern Gas Policy" as an element of the energy strategy in the eastern regions, aimed at the widespread use of natural gas for domestic needs and export supplies. The emerging strategic partnership with China is determined not only by the energy partnership, which is acquiring new initiatives, but is also characterised by a wider sphere of relations, including economic and political cooperation. At the same time, economic cooperation in the gas sector is aimed primarily at ensuring the possibility of diversifying gas supplies to Chinese regions having a developed demand.  In the current financial and economic situation in the energy market in the western direction, Russia is often forced to accept China’s conditions. The research results demonstrate that the Russian oil and gas complex retains key positions in the country's energy sector and economy. Currently, the process of active spatial development of the fuel and energy complex in the East of the country is observed, while in the long run both the “western” and “eastern” vectors of Russia's gas policy remain. Strengthening trade, economic and political cooperation between Russia and China in the medium and long term will lead to a significant increase in energy cooperation on mutually beneficial conditions. 


2021 ◽  
Vol 289 ◽  
pp. 03004
Author(s):  
Timur G. Mamedov ◽  
Aleksey G. Massel

The article discusses the development of a new version of the INTEC software complex, designed to support research in the areas of development of the fuel and energy complex from the point of view of energy security, called INTEC-A. In the course of direct reengineering of this software complex, a multi-agent approach was used to expand its functionality in the future. In more detail, the article discusses the process of reengineering existing versions of a software package based on the two previous versions. The architecture of the SC “INTEC-A” is presented, the justification of the applied technologies is given. Also SC “INTEC-A” includes a database, the description of which is given. A computational experiment was carried out with energy experts to verify and test the performance of a SF.


2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (10) ◽  
pp. 69-75
Author(s):  
I. V. BRATKO ◽  

In modern realities, the number of fuel and energy companies managed on corporate principles is increasing every year. Accordingly, we are talking about the transition of state command management of the fuel and energy sector to private, competition-based and corporate governance. The study proposed a system of "balanced key performance indicators procurement", aimed at optimization of performance to meet the principles of the classic system of Kaplan-Norton and focused on the strategic orientation reflects the characteristics of the processes of production and consumption of services of energy companies. It is concluded that in a balanced system, it is necessary to distinguish between indicators that measure the results achieved and indicators that reflect the processes that contribute to the achievement of these results.


2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 271-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Burgherr ◽  
Jennifer Giroux ◽  
Matteo Spada

The risks of technological accidents in the energy sector and their potentially disastrous effects have been analyzed over the past decades, and are nowadays generally recognized to constitute a key factor in an encompassing assessment of energy security. In contrast, the issue of intentional attacks on energy infrastructures has received increased attentionmore recently, particularly due to growing dependence of energy imports fromand transit routes through regions considered less reliable and politically stable. Both types of risks, however, illuminate different vulnerabilities. Therefore, the focus of the present analysis was on these two risk categories: accidents and intentional attacks in the energy sector. Risk assessment resultswere based on quantitative data from the databases ENSAD (Energy-related Severe Accident Database) and EIAD (Energy Infrastructure Attack Database). Evaluations examined similarities and differences between technological accidents and intentional attacks in terms of frequencies and consequences, considering time-series trends and regional patterns. A key difference is that accidents are typically rare and independent events, whereas intentional attacks are often multiple events and concentrated both in time and space, resulting in distinct hotspots. Concerning consequences, the severity distribution for accidents generally stretches over a broad range, with low-probability high-consequence events being an important factor of both energy chain performance and as a measure of risk aversion. On the other hand, these types of consequences are usually less important for intentional attacks because targeted energy infrastructures are often of “linear” nature (e.g. pipelines and transmission lines) that are difficult to protect and usually lead through remote areas with low population density. However, when frequently attacked substantial business and supply disruptions can occur. In summary, the joint analysis of accidents and intentional attacks provides a comprehensive and complementary approach on two types of risks that have rather different properties, but are essential in an energy security perspective.


2021 ◽  

The compendium of works presented at the international conference of young scholars, organized by the Center of Energy Studies, IMEMO RAS and Faculty of International Energy Business of Gubkin Russian State University (NRU) of Oil and Gas, covers various trends of world energy complex development in the context of energy transition. Special attention is paid to the analysis of the situation in the energy sector of Vietnam, China, India, Iran and Uzbekistan as well as to prospects of hydrogen and LNG transport development.


2020 ◽  
pp. 114-125
Author(s):  
Tetyana DERKACH ◽  
Denys CHEBANENKO

Introduction. The topic of renewable energy today is one of the most relevant and requires consideration from the point of view of all components of this process, namely economic, financial, environmental, technological, and others. The transition to renewable energy is already irreversible today since natural resources are depleted, fuel prices are the subject to significant fluctuations, and the stable growth of the national economy is ensured by energy security. The purpose. The purpose of the article is to analyze the volume of global energy consumption, to analyze the impact of the introduction of renewable energy sources on the development of the national economy, to ensure energy security with the depletion of hydrocarbon resources and a slight diversification of their suppliers. Results. Today the Ukrainian economy is the most energy-intensive. Unstable energy prices are a threat both to the global economy and to each country separately. Therefore, in the event of a decrease in the supply of traditional energy resources, the importing countries experience the greatest difficulties. The existing tendency in Ukraine to increase the consumption of traditional energy sources, combined with the absence of a targeted policy aimed at reducing the volume of environmental pollution, will lead to an increase in negative economic consequences. The advantage of renewable energy sources is their equal distribution throughout the country (with the exception of water resources). This feature leads to the formation of one of the main characteristics of power systems based on renewable energy sources, namely, their decentralization. It should be borne in mind that the world energy market is made up of state and non-state participants. Non-state participants are showing an upward trend. However, the state should have the greatest influence on the national energy sector. Renewable energy is an area that, in the Ukrainian context, depends on state support, namely economic and administrative incentives. The dynamics of the development of renewable energy should be combined with the balanced development of the fuel and energy sector in Ukraine. Conclusions. The process of development and transition to renewable energy needs a systematic approach. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches are needed to assess the transition to renewable energy. An effective strategy for the transition to the introduction of renewable energy technologies should be justified by economic feasibility. The transition from traditional energy to renewable sources should lead to energy security, which contributes to stable economic growth, political independence, and improving the quality of the environmental component.


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