scholarly journals ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE DYNAMICS OF PASSENGER TRANSPORTATION BY PUBLIC LAND TRANSPORT

Transport ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonas Butkevičius ◽  
Mindaugas Mazūra ◽  
Valdas Ivankovas ◽  
Skirmantas Mazūra

In the presented paper the dynamics of passenger haulage by public transport is considered and a forecast is made. In Lithuania the total volume of passenger transportation by public land transport considerably decreased in the period from 1992 to 2001. In fact, the number of passengers carried by these transport facilities decreased by 3.1 times. The most considerable decrease was found on the local (suburban) bus routes and on international railway routes ‐ by 5.6 and by 5 times, respectively. Long‐distance transportation by bus which decreased only by 1.6 times was the least affected. The paper aims to identify major causes of transportation decrease common to road and railway transport (i.e. considerable growth of tariffs, fast growth of the number of personal motor cars, wear of transport facilities, lack of comfort, low prestige of public transport, etc.). The emphasis is placed on making a forecast of passenger traffic by using a multiple regression. The calculations show that the national income is the most reliable parameter for making forecasts of land transport development compared to a number of others, including national income, a gross national product, average monthly payment, household income and expenditures, national wealth, the index of production and users’ cost, and the variation of consumer goods and services. The forecasts show that passenger haulage by public transport will reach 575 m by 2010, while by 2015 it will grow up to 893 m. This means that transportation will increase by 1,6 times and 2,3 times, respectively, compared to passenger haulage in 2001. However, passenger transportation in 2015 will not achieve the volume found in 2001. The data of the considered forecast were used developing the strategies of national road and railway transport development.

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 329-338
Author(s):  
Yu. V. Golenya

The carriage of passengers takes a significant place in the activities of transport organizations. Ensuring high quality passenger transportation is one of the main tasks of railway transport, which directly depends on the technical equipment and technology of servicing passenger traffic at passenger stations. The introduction of multimodal transport in passenger traffic can change the attitude to transport in general, it will allow: to pick up each passenger the optimal combination of modes of transport (price and quality); monitor the entire transport process and notify of further movements, to hold the carrier responsible for not fulfilling the stages of multimodal transportation. And the organization of the transport and transfer complex will optimize and streamline the process of passenger service. The study was carried out on the example of the transport hub of the station N. Station allows to transfer passengers from rail transport (long and suburban) to all types of urban transport, as well as taxis and personal transport. However, there is practically no interaction with other types of transport at the regional and federal level in this hub. At some distance from station N is a bus station for several long-distance destinations. Territorial location, concentration of several modes of transport, accompanying infrastructure, as well as the potential of this station N allow to organize a prospective transport and transfer complex and attract additional passenger flow, which in the conditions of competition with personal vehicles is important. To do this, all the necessary elements of the multimodal node, necessary for the operation of the transport and transfer complex, are calculated.


2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (5) ◽  
pp. 293-300
Author(s):  
O. F. Miroshnichenko ◽  
A. E. Oginskaya

Labor productivity in railway transport is determined using the “reduced performance” indicator, which is formed using a reduction factor designed to take into account the difference in unit costs of the payroll fund when performing a unit of work performance: ton-kilometers in freight traffic and passenger-kilometers in passenger traffic. The article reflects the results of a study to determine the value of the passenger turnover reduction factor in the formation of the total transportation performance of Russian Railways in modern conditions. The relevance of the revision of the current reduction factor is due to a change in the organizational structure as a result of the reform of railway transport, an increase in costs per unit of production by improving the quality of passenger traffic, strengthening security measures at stations and platforms, development of electronic passenger information systems, a significant increase in the volume of high-cost types of high-speed and high-speed passenger transportation.A comparative analysis of the costs of the payroll fund in passenger and freight traffic in the context of tariff components is carried out. The comparison was carried out both in general and differentially for each type of activity carried out by the company in the passenger complex, namely: the provision of services for long-distance and suburban passenger transportation, long-distance passenger transportation and suburban traffic, carried out in high-speed rolling stock. The most costly items in each facility were identified, which characterize the labor intensity by type of activity of Russian Railways. For calculating the labor productivity of the company's employees, proposals have been developed for the formation of the reduced freight turnover using a single coefficient for passenger turnover, equal to 3.7.


Transport ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 168-173
Author(s):  
Jonas Butkevičius

This article provides the analysis of the possibilities to instal new technologies in the Lithuanian railways the building of a high speed railway line I in Kreta corridor. It is advisable to project this line as a mixed one, i.e. intended for both passenger and goods traffic. The research carried out by the author has shown that light transport dominates in passenger transportation among four cities of Lithuania Vilnius, Kaunas, Klaipeda and Siauliai, which transports even 81,3% of direct passengers. Buses carry 14,9% and only 3,8 % of passengers are carried by railway transport. Therefore the main problem public transport is facing is to“get the passengers back” from light transport means, i.e. cars. The prospective railway and road transport markets in local, intercity and international passengers' transportations are also established in this work.


2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.3) ◽  
pp. 477
Author(s):  
U V.Myroshnychenko ◽  
I V.Motsna ◽  
N V.Gritsenko

The decline in the volume of passenger traffic, the critical level of financial condition, and the depreciation of the material and technical base caused a significant economic downfall of the railway transport. The reorganization of structural units is intended to improve the quality of service provision, which affects the final demand of consumers, which influences the volume and profitability of passenger transportation. The author suggests applying the principles of the organization of the revenue account from passenger transportation, exempt from VAT, to reduce its loss ratio amid organizational and structural transformations during the reshaping of passenger transport segment. Increasing the competitiveness of passenger rail transportation will contribute to the economic development of the entire nation.  


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 44-50
Author(s):  
Elena Popova ◽  
I. Zhuravleva

The organization of transport services for suburban routes during the periods of providing "windows" should be based on logistics approaches and the principle of maximum use of the possibilities of railway transport for the development of a given and predicted passenger traffic. Intermodal transport is the most progressive and efficient method of passenger transportation, which is most convenient and more understandable to a person from the point of view of the organization-the responsibility of one carrier for the entire transport process on the route.


Author(s):  
O. Olkhovskaya ◽  
K. Butko

The article presents a model for optimizing the activities of railway transport when organizing passenger transportation in a major transportation hub. When optimizing the calculations determine the number of vehicles that are assigned to the node; optimal rates for transportation; the number of transport units in the directions depending on the random demand for transportation. The possibility of attracting additional transport units in case of insufficiency of their own is taken into account. The model takes into account the influence of competitive transport (road). The solution of this problem in general requires the use of statistical modeling and nonlinear programming. Keywords optimization model, statistical modeling, optimal freight rates, non-linear programming.


2021 ◽  
pp. 54-63
Author(s):  
Yevgeniy Balaka ◽  
Maryna Rezunenko ◽  
Volodymyr Vdovychenko

The article presents methodological approaches to determining the volume of passenger service in long-distance railway connections and intercity bus services in Ukraine, which are expected in the coming years. Goal. The purpose of the study is to increase the reliability of the information base for making informed management decisions on the further development of the transport passenger complex. Methodology. In the process of research there was used a set of methods of expert assessment and logical analysis of possible factors influencing; economic and mathematical modeling; formalized extrapolation methods to determine the predictive parameters of influencing factors. Results. The forecast values of the number of transported passengers and the values of passenger turnover in long-distance railway and intercity bus connections in the short-term period are obtained. Originality. To estimate the forecast values of passenger traffic there was used the combination of methods of correlation-regression analysis and forecasting the magnitude of factors by the method of variable average. Practical value. The study of the patterns of passenger traffic dynamics revealed that in the next two years no significant changes are expected in the volume of work of both kinds of transport. However, in long-distance railway transport it is possible to increase passenger traffic by 1.6% (0.74 million passengers) and, accordingly, the annual passenger turnover will increase by 2.2%. In the intercity bus service, a slight decrease in the volume of passenger traffic by 0.8% (0.93 million passengers) is possible, and the rate of decrease in annual passenger turnover will be 0.5%. In the conditions of constant reduction of the population of Ukraine the most effective mechanism of ensuring further sustainable development of both types of passenger transportation is constant adjustment of tariff policy on the principles of flexibility and bonus tariff formation under condition of continuous improvement of services quality.


2020 ◽  
pp. 28-43
Author(s):  
N.V. Lupitko ◽  

Abstract. The wear rate of passenger cars of JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia" according to various estimates is equal up to 88-93%. Its aging is going on at a rapid pace and is not compensated by the acquisition of new cars. The paper analyzes the current state of the inventory of passenger cars. Data on replenishment of the fleet of passenger cars of JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia" by years of construction are given: in the years 1951-1979 1708 cars were purchased; from 1980 till 1991 3881 cars were received; from 1992 till 2009 532 units were purchased; in 2010-2011 years 30 cars were purchased; in 2016 only 9 were purchased; in 2017 this figure totals to 50 units; in the years 2018-2019 26 cars were purchased. The structure of the fleet of passenger cars by type as of October 9, 2020 is given. The paper presents the statistical data of passenger transportation by railway transport of Ukraine. The work of passenger transport in January - September 2020 in comparison with the similar period of 2019 is reviewed. The rapid decline in passenger traffic by rail in 2020 is due to the introduction of strict quarantine in Ukraine caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, passenger transportation by rail was completely stopped from March 11, 2020, and partially resumed in the second half of May. During the quarantine the number of assigned trains decreased significantly, and tickets for these trains were sold for a limited number of seats in cars (50% of seats), so losses incurred by Ukrzaliznytsia increased at least one and a half to two times (approximately UAH 1 billion, taking into account the fact that such transportation is social in nature, and ticket prices are regulated by the state). Statistics on the production of passenger cars by domestic enterprises are given in the paper. Analyzed the current state of the passenger car fleet of JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia" and made the appropriate conclusions and made recommendations on the necessary volumes of renewal of the passenger car fleet.


2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.3) ◽  
pp. 583 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viktoriia Yanovska ◽  
Olena Pylypenko ◽  
Viktoriia Tvoronovych ◽  
Anastasiia Bozhok

Justification of management decisions for railway companies, under the conditions of the transport market liberalization, requires the search and collection of reliable information which is related with both the internal and external environment. Alongside, the need to provide competitiveness of the railways involves marketing research. The main objective of this paper is to determine the specific features of applying marketing tools for promotion of competitiveness and formation of the railway company’s strategy. The dynamics of passenger traffic reflects the competitiveness of types of transport in terms of the ability to provide transport services for a better ratio of “price / quality”. The performed researches confirm the presence of opposite tendencies in the long-distance and suburban connections, as well as specific factors of elasticity of demand for passenger transportation at a price. It is established that for the population (the consumer of transport services) the rate of tariffs for transportation is the determining factor of the attractiveness of the carrier in suburban transportation, and therefore it is the factor of its competitiveness, while the rate of tariffs is not the most significant factor in choosing a carrier in long distance transportation. There are subjective technical parameters of competitiveness which do not fit into the “price / quality” system among the factors of choosing a carrier. During the choice of transportation, the consumer is guided by his own system of values which is not universal and leaves each transport company its “niche” for operation in the market as well as the opportunity to win its “own” consumer. Models of forecasting demand for passenger long-distance and suburban transportation by railway and automobile transport are proposed on the basis of forecast of macrofactors. The using of these models will allow railway and automobile companies to form their development strategies.  


2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 166-175
Author(s):  
E. B. Kulikova ◽  
O. N. Madyar ◽  
A. V. Galitsky

The study is focused on improvement of passenger transportation by rail transport, its availability, quality of related services for residents of large agglomerations. Correlation of growth in speed of movement of passengers, distance of travel, range and quality of services provided by the carrier, as well as planning of passenger traffic and spatial urban development models are considered. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of the improvement of passenger transportation by rail transport by assigning stops for long-distance passenger trains (including fast, speed and highspeed trains) in suburban areas of large agglomerations, since that aspect has not been yet sufficiently studied.It is concluded that it is necessary to continue research on transportation needs of the population of the agglomerations, to identify the features and patterns of changes in passenger traffic, emerging and redeeming in the suburban areas of the largest cities. This will allow transportation companies to better understand the transport services market, to develop and offer new transportation products to the population. That approach can increase the attractiveness of rail transport and its availability for the population of many cities thanks to a significant reduction in weighted average costs and travel time expenditures for passengers.


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