scholarly journals Multi-criteria analysis of the efficiency of scenarios for the development of the Russian nuclear industry in view of the uncertain prospects for the future

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 299-305
Author(s):  
Anatoly V. Zrodnikov ◽  
Valery V. Korobeynikov ◽  
Andrey L. Moseev ◽  
Aleksandr F. Egorov

Multi-criteria analysis is used in many areas of research where it is required to compare several alternatives according to a selected set of criteria. Of particular interest is the application of this method for a comparative assessment of the efficiency of scenarios for the development of innovative nuclear systems. The article proposes an approach to the computational substantiation of the step-by-step transfer of the Russian nuclear industry to a two-component nuclear energy system (NES) with a centralized closed nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) based on the multi-criteria analysis method. At the same time, consideration is given to options for the development of the domestic nuclear industry in view of the uncertain prospects for the future. Taking into account various trends in the nuclear energy development, the authors identify the following three groups of possible scenarios. The first group includes ‘growing’ scenarios in which the number of units and their total installed capacity grow over time. The second group assumes that after a certain time of growth of the installed capacities, the stationary level will be reached, in which there will be no time-dependent capacity changes. The third group simulates a decrease in the installed nuclear energy capacities in the country after some growth. To select the most preferable ways of technological development and assess the efficiency of a nuclear energy system, a limited set of selection criteria and performance indicators are used, covering the economy, export potential, competitiveness, efficient SNF and RW management, natural uranium consumption, and innovative development potential. An important part of this work was a detailed analysis of the uncertainties in the weights and input data used to derive the criteria.

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrey A. Andrianov ◽  
Ilya S. Kuptsov ◽  
Tatyana A. Osipova ◽  
Olga N. Andrianova ◽  
Tatyana V. Utyanskaya

The article presents a description and some illustrative results of the application of two optimization models for a two-component nuclear energy system consisting of thermal and fast reactors in a closed nuclear fuel cycle. These models correspond to two possible options of developing Russian nuclear energy system, which are discussed in the expert community: (1) thermal and fast reactors utilizing uranium and mixed oxide fuel, (2) thermal reactors utilizing uranium oxide fuel and fast reactors utilizing mixed nitride uranium-plutonium fuel. The optimization models elaborated using the IAEA MESSAGE energy planning tool make it possible not only to optimize the nuclear energy system structure according to the economic criterion, taking into account resource and infrastructural constraints, but also to be used as a basis for developing multi-objective, stochastic and robust optimization models of a two-component nuclear energy system. These models were elaborated in full compliance with the recommendations of the IAEA’s PESS and INPRO sections, regarding the specification of nuclear energy systems in MESSAGE. The study is based on publications of experts from NRC “Kurchatov Institute”, JSC “SSC RF-IPPE”, ITCP “Proryv”, JSC “NIKIET”. The presented results demonstrate the characteristic structural features of a two-component nuclear energy system for conservative assumptions in order to illustrate the capabilities of the developed optimization models. Consideration is also given to the economic feasibility of a technologically diversified nuclear energy structure providing the possibility of forming on its base a robust system in the future. It has been demonstrated that given the current uncertainties in the costs of nuclear fuel cycle services and reactor technologies, it is impossible at the moment to make a reasonable conclusion regarding the greatest attractiveness of a particular option in terms of the economic performance.


2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 243-247
Author(s):  
Anton S. Lapin ◽  
Aleksandr S. Bobryashov ◽  
Victor Yu. Blandinsky ◽  
Yevgeny A. Bobrov

For 60 years of its existence, nuclear energy has passed the first stage of its development and has proven that it can become a powerful industry, going beyond the 10% level in the global balance of energy production. Despite this, modern nuclear industry is capable of producing economically acceptable energy only from uranium-235 or plutonium, obtained as a by-product of the use of low enriched uranium for energy production or surplus weapons-grade plutonium. In this case, nuclear energy cannot claim to be a technology that can solve the problems of energy security and sustainable development, since it meets the same economic and ‘geological’ problems as other technologies do, based on the use of exhaustible organic resources. The solution to this problem will require a new generation of reactors to drastically improve fuel-use characteristics. In particular, reactors based on the use of water cooling technology should significantly increase the efficiency of using U-238 in order to reduce the need for natural uranium in a nuclear energy system. To achieve this goal, it will be necessary to transit to a closed nuclear fuel cycle and, therefore, to improve the performance of a light-water reactor system. The paper considers the possibility of using a reactor with a fast-resonance neutron spectrum cooled by supercritical water (SCWR). The SCWR can be effectively used in a closed nuclear fuel cycle, since it makes it possible to use spent fuel and discharge uranium with a small amount of plutonium added. The authors discuss the selected layout of the core with a change in its size as well as the size of the breeding regions (blankets). MOX fuel with an isotopic plutonium content corresponding to that discharged from the VVER-1000 reactor is considered as fuel. For the selected layout, a study was made of the reactor system features. Compared with existing light-water reactors, this reactor type has increased fuel consumption due to its improved efficiency and nuclear fuel breeding rate up to 1 and above.


2022 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 2
Author(s):  
Andrei A. Andrianov ◽  
Olga N. Andrianova ◽  
Ilya S. Kuptsov ◽  
Leonid I. Svetlichny ◽  
Tatyana V. Utianskaya

The paper presents the results of a case study on evaluating performance and sustainability metrics for Russian nuclear energy deployment scenarios with thermal and sodium-cooled fast reactors in a closed nuclear fuel cycle. Ten possible scenarios are considered which differ in the shares of thermal and sodium-cooled fast reactors, including options involving the use of mixed uranium-plutonium oxide fuel in thermal reactors. The evolution of the following performance and sustainability metrics is estimated for the period from 2020 to 2100 based on the considered assumptions: annual and cumulative uranium consumption, needs for uranium enrichment capacities, fuel fabrication and reprocessing capacities, spent fuel stocks, radioactive wastes, amounts of plutonium in the nuclear fuel cycle, amounts of accumulated depleted uranium, and the levelised electricity generation cost. The results show that the sustainability of the Russian nuclear energy system can be significantly enhanced through the intensive deployment of sodium-cooled fast reactors and the transition to a closed nuclear fuel cycle. The authors have highlighted some issues for further considerations, which will lead to more rigorous conclusions regarding the preferred options for the development of the national nuclear energy system.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 165-172
Author(s):  
Vladimir I. Usanov ◽  
Stepan A. Kvyatkovskiy ◽  
Andrey A. Andrianov ◽  
Ilya S. Kuptsov

The paper presents the results from a multi-criteria comparative evaluation of potential deployment scenarios for Russian nuclear power with thermal and sodium-cooled fast reactors in a closed nuclear fuel cycle (the so-called two-component nuclear energy system). The comparison and the ranking were performed taking into account the recommendations and using the IAEA/INPRO software tools for comparative evaluation of nuclear energy systems, including tools for sensitivity/uncertainty analysis with respect to weighting factors. Ten potential Russian nuclear power deployment scenarios with different shares of thermal and sodium-cooled fast reactors were considered, including options involving the use of MOX fuel in VVER reactors. Eight key indicators were used, estimated as of 2100 and structured into a three-level objectives tree. The comparative evaluation and the ranking were carried out based on the multi-attribute value theory. The model for assessing the key indicators was developed using the IAEA/INPRO MESSAGE-NES energy system planning software tool. The information base for the study was formed by publications of experts from JSC SSC RF-IPPE, NRC Kurchatov Institute and NRNU MEPhI. The presented results show that it is possible to enhance significantly the sustainability of the Russian nuclear energy system, when considering multiple performance indicators, through the intensive deployment of sodium-cooled fast reactors and the transition to a closed nuclear fuel cycle. Tasks have been outlined for the follow-up studies to make it possible to obtain more rigorous conclusions regarding the preferred options for the evolution of a two-component nuclear energy system.


2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 (3) ◽  
pp. 100-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrey Alekseevich Andrianov ◽  
Ilya Sergeevich Kuptsov ◽  
Tatiana Andreevna Osipova ◽  
Olga Nikolaevna Andrianova ◽  
Tatyana Vladimirovna Utyanskaya

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (10) ◽  
pp. 2377-2398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Passerini ◽  
Mujid Kazimi

The nuclear fuel cycle is the series of stages that nuclear fuel materials go through in a cradle to grave framework. The Once Through Cycle (OTC) is the current fuel cycle implemented in the United States; in which an appropriate form of the fuel is irradiated through a nuclear reactor only once before it is disposed of as waste. The discharged fuel contains materials that can be suitable for use as fuel. Thus, different types of fuel recycling technologies may be introduced in order to more fully utilize the energy potential of the fuel, or reduce the environmental impacts and proliferation concerns about the discarded fuel materials. Nuclear fuel cycle systems analysis is applied in this paper to attain a better understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of fuel cycle alternatives. Through the use of the nuclear fuel cycle analysis code CAFCA (Code for Advanced Fuel Cycle Analysis), the impact of a number of recycling technologies and the associated fuel cycle options is explored in the context of the U.S. energy scenario over 100 years. Particular focus is given to the quantification of Uranium utilization, the amount of Transuranic Material (TRU) generated and the economics of the different options compared to the base-line case, the OTC option. It is concluded that LWRs and the OTC are likely to dominate the nuclear energy supply system for the period considered due to limitations on availability of TRU to initiate recycling technologies. While the introduction of U-235 initiated fast reactors can accelerate their penetration of the nuclear energy system, their higher capital cost may lead to continued preference for the LWR-OTC cycle.


Author(s):  
Yusuke Masuda ◽  
Yukihiro Iguchi ◽  
Satoru Kawasaki ◽  
Masami Kato

In Japan, 4 nuclear power stations are under decommissioning and some nuclear fuel cycle facilities are expected to be decommissioned in the future. On the other hand, the safety regulation of decommissioning of nuclear facilities was changed by amending act in 2005. An approval system after review process of decommissioning plan was adopted and applied to the power stations above. In this situation, based on the experiences of the new regulatory system, the system should be well established and moreover, it should be improved and enhanced in the future. Nuclear Industry and Safety Agency (NISA) is in charge of regulation of commercial nuclear facilities in Japan and decommissioning of them is included. Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization (JNES) is in charge of technical supports for NISA as a TSO (Technical Support Organization) also in this field. As for decommissioning, based on regulatory needs, JNES has been continuing research activities from October 2003, when JNES has been established. Considering the “Prioritized Nuclear Safety Research Plan (August 2009)” of the Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan and the situation of operators faculties, “Regulatory Support Research Plan between FY 2010–2014” was established in November 2009, which shows the present regulatory needs and a research program. This program consists of researches for 1. review process of decommissioning plan of power reactors, 2. review process of decommissioning plan of nuclear fuel cycle facilities, 3. termination of license at the end of decommissioning and 4. management of decommissioning waste. For the item 1, JNES studied safety assessment methods of dismantling, e.g. obtaining data and analysis of behavior of dust diffusion and risk assessment during decommissioning, which are useful findings for the review process. For the item 2, safety requirements for the decommissioning of nuclear fuel cycle facilities was compiled, which will be used in the future review. For the item 3, measuring method, release procedure and analysis code for the site release were studied for the establishment of the license termination process in the future. From FY 2010, based on the new plan, we have started the researches for the standardization of review process of decommissioning plan for power reactors and nuclear fuel cycle facilities, establishing the process and criteria of license termination and appropriate method of management of decommissioning waste based on the waste form confirmation process.


Author(s):  
Maurizio Cumo

- This article gives an overview of the situation of nuclear power in the world and analyzes the problems of this source of energy from different points of view: the generation costs, fuel cycle, particularly with regard to the resources of uranium and radioactive waste, and the programs of technological development of new reactors.Key words: Nuclear energy, generation costs, uranium resources, radioactive waste, new reactor technology.JEL classifications: L94 Q40 Q31


Author(s):  
Shengli Chen ◽  
Cenxi Yuan ◽  
Jingxia Wu ◽  
Yaolei Zou

The management of long-lived radionuclides in spent fuel is a key issue to achieve the closed nuclear fuel cycle and the sustainable development of nuclear energy. Partitioning-Transmutation is supposed to treat efficiently the long-lived radionuclides. Accordingly, the study of transmutation for long-lived Minor Actinides (MAs) is a significant work for the post-processing of spent fuel. In the present work, the transmutations in Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Mixed OXide (MOX) fuel are investigated through the Monte Carlo based code RMC. Two kinds of MAs are incorporated homogeneously into two initial concentrations MOX fuel assembly. The results indicate an overall nice efficiency of transmutation in both initial MOX concentrations, especially for two MAs primarily generated in the UOX fuel, 237Np and 241Am. In addition, the inclusion of 237Np has no large influence on other MAs, while the transmutation efficiency of 237Np is excellent. The transmutation of MAs in MOX fuel depletion is expected to be an efficient nuclear spent fuel management method.


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