scholarly journals Impact of unemployment by sex and marriage rate on fertility decline: Estimates for Turkey and Greece using CCR model

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 76-89
Author(s):  
Goran Miladinov
Keyword(s):  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Marriage Rate ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Canonical Cointegrating Regression ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Ccr Model

The article analyses the effect of unemployment by sex and marriage rate on fertility changes in Greece and Turkey. The empirical part of the study is based on annual time series data retrieved from the World Bank and National Statistical Offices of Turkey and Greece for 1991–2019. Canonical Cointegrating Regression model is applied for the two countries separately, allowing to quantify the effects of the determinants (crude marriage rate and unemployment rate by sex) on the variation of fertility rate. CCR models show these determinants to be the most significant factors of fertility dynamics in both countries. The results from Engle-Granger and the Phillips-Ouliaris tau (t-statistics) tests confirm the cointegration, i.e., long-term relationship between the variables only for Turkey’s CCR model. However, it was found that in Greece, female unemployment impacts fertility rate negatively and male unemployment has a positive effect on fertility rate; for Turkey modelling shows the opposite relationship. The results of the study suggest that economic uncertainties might be one of the factors contributing to fertility decline in these countries, long-term or in the coming years.

scholarly journals Prospects of the Nigeria Brewery Industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-24
Author(s):  
Paul A. Ugboya ◽  
Martins A. Odiamenhi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Regression Coefficients ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
The Future ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Annual Time

This study analyses the economics and determinants of a brewery industry (Guinness Nigeria Limited) with a view of establishing the future of breweries in Nigeria. The specific objectives were to estimate the factors influencing products production and determine the viability of products manufactured by the company. Multiple regression and the ordinary least square techniques were used to analyse the long-term (2006 - 2015) annual time series data observed for the study. The results showed that the major determinant of Stout, Harp and Malt production is demanded. As a significant input, it positively influences product production. The observed values of regression coefficients (R2) are 0.99349 (for Stout), 0.90981 (for Harp), and 0.99498 (for Malt), which indicates that they are reliable for determining the future of Guinness Nigeria Ltd. The results also showed that logarithm of demand for Stout production (LstoutD) of 13.5277, LharpD of 21.8439 and LmaltD of 12.2653 were projected respectively up to the year 2025, an indication that brewery production in the state is viable and that future is bright.

scholarly journals Causal Nexus between Billing Efficiency and Economic Growth in India: An Analysis Using Vector Autoregression

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 184
Author(s):  
Asit Ranjan Mohanty ◽  
Devtosh Chaturvedi ◽  
Suresh Kumar Patra
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Causal Nexus ◽  
Annual Time

Energy being a major factor of production plays a pivotal role in inducing a sustained and high economic growth of an economy. This paper attempts to examine the Vector Autoregression (VAR) based Granger causality between billing efficiency and growth rate of per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of India using annual time series data for the period 1970-71 to 2014-15. The conventional Augmented Dicky-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests reveal that both the series are non-stationary and individually integrated of order one. Johansen-Juselius cointegration approach finds no evidence on the long-run equilibrium association between these variables. However, the VAR - based Granger causality approach reveals unidirectional causality running from billing efficiency to economic growth without any feedback effect. As regards policy implication, implementation of both the short term and long term measures in improving billing efficiency, through the enhancement of commercial and operational efficiency in electricity distribution sector will undoubtedly aid in achieving sustained and high economic growth in India.

Income and Price Elasticities in India's Trade

1994 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 13-20
Author(s):  
G S Gupta ◽  
H Keshava
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Price Elasticities ◽  
The World ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Income And Price Elasticities ◽  
Annual Time

This article by G S Gupta and H Keshava estimates the export and import functions for India both at the aggregate (rest of the world) as well as the important individual country levels using annual time series data for the period 1960-61 through 1990-91.

Government Partisanship, Labor Organization, and Macroeconomic Performance

1991 ◽  
Vol 85 (2) ◽  
pp. 539-556 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Michael Alvarez ◽  
Geoffrey Garrett ◽  
Peter Lange
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Organized Labor ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Labor Movements ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Industrial Democracies ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Left And Right ◽  
Annual Time

Governments of the Left and Right have distinct partisan economic policies and objectives that they would prefer to pursue. Their propensity to do so, however, is constrained by their desire for reelection. We argue that the ability of governments to further their partisan interests and preside over reelectable macroeconomic outcomes simultaneously is dependent on the organization of the domestic economy, particularly the labor movement. We hypothesize that there are two different paths to desirable macroeconomic performance. In countries with densely and centrally organized labor movements, leftist governments can promote economic growth and reduce inflation and unemployment. Conversely, in countries with weak labor movements, rightist governments can pursue their partisan-preferred macroeconomic strategies and achieve similarly beneficial macroeconomic outcomes. Performance will be poorer in other cases. These hypotheses are supported by analysis of pooled annual time series data for 16 advanced industrial democracies between 1967 and 1984.

scholarly journals OPEN DEFECATION IN MALAWI: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 156-165
Author(s):  
Smartson. P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Open Defecation ◽  
Sanitation And Hygiene ◽  
Vision 2030 ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Annual Time

Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Malawi from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2021. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the M series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 1, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented model is stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Malawi is likely to decline, over the period 2018 – 2022, from approximately 5.1% to almost 2.8% of the total population. Indeed, by 2030, open defecation can be eliminated in Malawi: hence, the country is in the right track with regards to its vision 2030 (on water, sanitation and hygiene). The study suggested a 3-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the government of Malawi.

scholarly journals LONG-RUN MONEY AND INFLATION NEUTRALITY TEST IN INDONESIA

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-99
Author(s):  
Arintoko Arintoko
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Money Stock ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Positive Effect

This paper investigates long-run neutrality of money and inflation in Indonesia, with due consideration to the order of integration, exogeneity, and cointegration of the money stock-real output and the money stock-price, using annual time-series data. The Fisher-Seater methodology is used to do the task in this research. The empirical results indicate that evidence rejected the long-run neutrality of money (both defined as M1 and M2) with respect to real GDP, showing that it is inconsistent with the classical and neoclassical economics. However, the positive link between the money and price in long run holds for money defined as M1 rather than M2, which consistent with these theories. In particular, besides the positive effect to long-run inflation, monetary expansions have long-run positive effect on real output in the Indonesian economy.JEL Classification: C32, E31, E51Keywords: long-run neutrality of money, inflation, unit root, exogeneity, cointegration

scholarly journals Arima forecasting of the prevalence of anemia in children in Sierra Leone

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 67-70
Author(s):  
Smartson. P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Optimal Model ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Prevalence Of Anemia ◽  
Children Under 5

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Sierra Leone from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the AS series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the AR (4) model, also known as the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show us that the presented model is stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the study indicate that the prevalence of anemia in children in Sierra Leone will rise over the out-of-sample period. By 2025, the country will be having a prevalence of anemia in children of approximately 78.6%.

scholarly journals Adults newly infected with hiv in burundi: a box-jenkins arima approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 48-56
Author(s):  
Smartson P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Hiv Infections ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Optimal Model ◽  
Applied Model ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
And Control ◽  
Blue Print ◽  
Annual Time

Using annual time series data on the number of adults (ages 15 and above) newly infected with HIV in Burundi from 1990 – 2018, the study predicts the annual number of adults who will be newly infected with HIV over the period 2019 – 2025. The study applied the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests as well as correlogram analysis show that the G series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model as the optimal model. The residual correlogram and the inverse roots of the applied model further reveal that the presented model is stable and suitable for forecasting new HIV infections in adults in Burundi. The results of the study indicate that the number of new HIV infections in adults in Burundi will most likely decline, over the period 2019 – 2023, from approximately 698 to almost 90 new HIV infections. By 2025, Burundi could experience her first zero new HIV infections in adults! This implies that, despite the fact that Vision Burundi 2025 is a highly ambitious blue-print; Vision Burundi 2025 will largely be achieved as far as HIV/AIDS prevention and control is concerned.

Subsidies and Fiscal Deficit in Post Reforms India

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasoda Jena ◽  
Chittaranjan Nayak
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Goods ◽  
Annual Time

The Government of India has been subsidising various economic goods, mainly food, fertiliser and petroleum. It is argued that subsidies are responsible for persistent high fiscal deficit over the years. The present paper attempts to study the trend of major subsidies given by the Government of India, and then examines whether all the forms of subsidies are uniformly responsible for fiscal deficit or otherwise. Based on annual time series data from 1992-93 to 2012-13, the study observes that in the post-reforms period, food and fertiliser subsidies have grown at a sharper rate than petroleum subsidies. The regression results also confirm that food and fertiliser subsidies have a positive and significant impact on fiscal deficit. The analysis of petroleum subsidies is more complicated. If we see only the explicit subsidies for petroleum products, then their rise is not significant over the post-reforms period, except for 2008-12. However, when we include the under-recoveries of Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), the story of petroleum subsidies becomes completely different. While the effectiveness of subsidies vis-à-vis their fiscal burden need a detailed scrutiny, the present paper argues for a National Policy on Subsidies.

scholarly journals Total new HIV infections in Togo: a box-jenkins arima approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 16-21
Author(s):  
Smartson. P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Hiv Infections ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Optimal Model ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Normally Distributed

Using annual time series data on the total number of new HIV infections in Togo from 1990 – 2018, the study makes predictions for the period 2019 – 2030. The research applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, J, the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 2) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is indeed stable and its residuals are not serially correlated and are also normally distributed. The results of the study indicate that the total number of new HIV infections in Togo is projected to decline sharply by 53.5% from the estimated 4791 new infections in 2019 to approximately 2229 new infections by 2030.

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