Comparing the performance of sampling plans that use a single regulatory limit based upon total aflatoxins to sampling plans that use dual limits based upon B1 and total aflatoxins

2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Whitaker ◽  
A. Slate ◽  
J. Adams ◽  
T. Birmingham ◽  
F. Giesbrecht
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Test Results ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Sampling Plans ◽  
Tree Nuts ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Sample Test ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Aflatoxin B

The European Commission (EC) aflatoxin sampling plan for ready-to-eat tree nuts such as almonds requires that each of the three 10 kg laboratory samples must all test less than 2 ng/g aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) and 4 ng/g total aflatoxins (AFT) for the lot to be accepted. Exporters have observed that the AFB1/AFT ratio varied greatly from sample to sample and the ratio appeared to average more than 50%. Because of the concern that dual limits associated with the EC aflatoxin sampling plans may reject more lots than similar sampling plans that use a single limit based upon total aflatoxins, studies were designed with the objectives to (a) measure the distribution of AFB1/AFT ratio values using sample test results associated with testing U.S. almond lots exported to the European Union; (b) use Monte Carlo methods to develop a model to compute the effects of using dual limits based upon AFB1 and AFT on the probability of accepting almond lots; and (c) compare the probability of accepting almond lots using the current Codex aflatoxin sampling plans for tree nuts when using single limits versus the use of dual limits. The study results showed that the mean and median among 3,257 AFB1/AFT ratio values was 87.6% and 91.9%, respectively, indicating that the distribution among the ratio values was negatively skewed. Only 31% of the 3,257 AFB1/AFT ratio values are less than the mean ratio of 87.6%. Codex aflatoxin sampling plans for tree nuts using a single limit based upon total aflatoxins had the highest probability of accepting lots at all lot concentrations when compared to the probability of accepting lots with dual limits. As the AFB1 limit decreased from 90 to 50% of the total limit, the probability of rejecting lots at all concentrations increased when compared to the Codex aflatoxin sampling plans with a single limit based upon total aflatoxins.

Designing Sampling Plans to Detect Foreign Material in Bulk Lots of Shelled Peanut1

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. B. Whitaker ◽  
A. B. Slate ◽  
F. G. Giesbrecht
Keyword(s):  
Binomial Distribution ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Sampling Plan ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Foreign Material ◽  
Sampling Plans ◽  
Sample Test ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean Variance ◽  
Food Manufacturer

Abstract When food manufacturers specify a maximum limit for the amount of foreign material (FM) in the lot, handlers estimate the true percent FM in a commercial lot by measuring FM in a small sample taken from the lot before shipment to a food manufacturer. Because of the uncertainty (variability) in FM among samples taken from the same lot, it is difficult to obtain a precise estimate of the true FM in the lot. The objectives of this study were to (1) measure the variability and FM distribution among sample test results when estimating the true lot proportion of FM in a lot of shelled peanuts, (2) compare the measured variability and FM distribution among sample test results to that predicted by the binomial distribution, (3) develop a computer model, based upon the binomial distribution, to evaluate the performance (buyer's risk and seller's risk) of sampling plan designs used to estimate FM in a bulk lot of shelled peanuts, and (4) demonstrate with the model the effect of increasing sample size to reduce misclassification of lots. Eighty-eight samples, 9 kg (20 lb) each, were selected at random from each of six commercial lots of shelled medium runner peanuts. The percent FM (PFM), based upon number of kernels was determined for each sample. The mean, variance, and distribution among the 88 sample test results were calculated for each of the six lots. Results indicated that the variance and distribution among the 88 sample test results are very similar to that predicted by the binomial distribution. The performance of various sampling plan designs was demonstrated using the binomial distribution.

Occurrence of Ochratoxin A Contamination and Detection of Ochratoxigenic Aspergillus Species in Retail Samples of Dried Fruits and Nuts

2015 ◽  
Vol 78 (4) ◽  
pp. 836-842 ◽  
Author(s):  
JEFFREY D. PALUMBO ◽  
TERESA L. O'KEEFFE ◽  
YVONNE S. HO ◽  
CARLO J. SANTILLAN
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Ochratoxin A ◽  
The United States ◽  
Aspergillus Species ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Dried Fruits ◽  
Tree Nuts ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Contamination Levels ◽  
Potential Contaminant

Ochratoxin A (OTA) is a mycotoxin produced by several species of Aspergillus and Penicillium and is a potential contaminant of a wide variety of food products. To determine the incidence of OTA contamination in dried fruits and tree nuts, retail packaged and bulk raisins, dates, figs, prunes, almonds, pistachios, and walnuts were collected from small and large supermarkets in seven areas of the United States between 2012 and 2014. Of the 665 samples analyzed, OTA was detected in 48 raisin samples, 4 fig samples, 4 pistachio samples, and 1 date sample. OTA contamination levels ranged from 0.28 to 15.34 ng/g in dried fruits and 1.87 to 890 ng/g in pistachios; two raisin samples and one pistachio sample exceeded the European Union regulatory limit of 10 ng/g. PCR detection of potential OTA-producing Aspergillus species revealed the presence of A. niger, A. welwitschiae, and A. carbonarius in 20, 7, and 7 of the 57 OTA-contaminated samples, respectively. However, OTA-producing A. carbonarius was isolated from only one raisin sample, and no other OTA-producing Aspergillus species were found. These results suggest that raisins are more frequently contaminated with low levels of OTA than are other dried fruits and nuts and that Aspergillus species are the likely source of that contamination.

scholarly journals Mycotoxins as a risk in the grain food

2009 ◽  
pp. 79-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jovana Matic ◽  
Jasna Mastilovic ◽  
Ivana Cabarkapa ◽  
Anamarija Mandic
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Secondary Metabolites ◽  
Ochratoxin A ◽  
Immunosorbent Assay ◽  
Toxic Effects ◽  
Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Grain Foods

Mycotoxins are toxic secondary metabolites of fungi that contaminate a large variety of foods and have toxic effects on humans. The best protection against mycotoxins is to monitor their presence in food. This paper shows the screening results of mycotoxins present in 76 samples of different groups of grain foods. Samples of grain food were analyzed for contamination with aflatoxins, ochratoxin A, zearalenone, fumonisins and deoxynivalenol. Analysis were conducted using competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). None of the samples was contaminated with aflatoxins. The most predominant mycotoxin was ochratoxin A with the mean level of 4.84 ? 4.49 ppb in 19.7% of the examined samples. Zearalenone, fumonisins, and deoxynivalenol were found in 9.21, 14.5 and 3.9% of the samples, respectively. Mycotoxin content in the investigated samples was compared with the regulations of Serbia and those of the European Union.

scholarly journals Income distribution and poverty as obstacles to the recovery of the crisis in the european Union

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-158
Author(s):  
Jose Nabor Cruz Marcelo
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
The European Union

Artículo que informa los resultados de cómo la desigualdad de los ingresos ha generado un intenso debate no sólo en la teoría económica sino en las ciencias sociales en general, puesto que se considera imprescindible una mejora en las percepciones de ingresos para generar bienestar económico y social. Por lo tanto, a través de tres indicadores, el coeficiente de Gini, la participación de los salarios en el Producto Interno Bruto y un índice de concentración del ingreso alternativo se analiza la evolución la distribución del ingreso en los países de la Unión Europea (UE) durante el periodo 1995-2012. Además, se simulan escenarios económicos, a través de un modelo algebraico que se basa en el método de Monte-Carlo, los efectos de algunas estrategias alternativas de Políticas Públicas que se pueden llevar a cabo en la Unión Europea para enfrentar la recesión económica y mejorar la desigualdad social. Se encuentra que mientras no se apliquen choques de demanda en la economía, la recesión económica continuará, así como la reducción del poder adquisitivo de los salarios de la UE. Lo cual constituye factores que influyen en el descontento y protesta social que consecuentemente impactarán en la seguridad y desarrollo de las economías europeas.

scholarly journals Sampling Hazelnuts for Aflatoxin: Effect of Sample Size and Accept/Reject Limit on Reducing the Risk of Misclassifying Lots

2007 ◽  
Vol 90 (4) ◽  
pp. 1028-1035 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guner Ozay ◽  
Ferda Seyhan ◽  
Aysun Yilmaz ◽  
Thomas B Whitaker ◽  
Andrew B Slate ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sample Size ◽  
Negative Binomial Distribution ◽  
Binomial Distribution ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Food Additives ◽  
Sampling Plan ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Sampling Plans ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Sample Test

Abstract About 100 countries have established regulatory limits for aflatoxin in food and feeds. Because these limits vary widely among regulating countries, the Codex Committee on Food Additives and Contaminants began work in 2004 to harmonize aflatoxin limits and sampling plans for aflatoxin in almonds, pistachios, hazelnuts, and Brazil nuts. Studies were developed to measure the uncertainty and distribution among replicated sample aflatoxin test results taken from aflatoxin-contaminated treenut lots. The uncertainty and distribution information is used to develop a model that can evaluate the performance (risk of misclassifying lots) of aflatoxin sampling plan designs for treenuts. Once the performance of aflatoxin sampling plans can be predicted, they can be designed to reduce the risks of misclassifying lots traded in either the domestic or export markets. A method was developed to evaluate the performance of sampling plans designed to detect aflatoxin in hazelnuts lots. Twenty hazelnut lots with varying levels of contamination were sampled according to an experimental protocol where 16 test samples were taken from each lot. The observed aflatoxin distribution among the 16 aflatoxin sample test results was compared to lognormal, compound gamma, and negative binomial distributions. The negative binomial distribution was selected to model aflatoxin distribution among sample test results because it gave acceptable fits to observed distributions among sample test results taken from a wide range of lot concentrations. Using the negative binomial distribution, computer models were developed to calculate operating characteristic curves for specific aflatoxin sampling plan designs. The effect of sample size and accept/reject limits on the chances of rejecting good lots (sellers' risk) and accepting bad lots (buyers' risk) was demonstrated for various sampling plan designs.

scholarly journals Aflatoxin M1 in traditional and industrial pasteurized milk samples from Tiran County, Isfahan Province

2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (SP1) ◽  
pp. 103-116
Author(s):  
Khadijeh Jafari ◽  
Ayub Ebadi Fathabad ◽  
Yadolah Fakhri ◽  
Maryam Shamsaei ◽  
Mohammad Miri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
European Union ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Hazard Quotient ◽  
Aflatoxin M1 ◽  
Isfahan Province ◽  
Milk Samples ◽  
Adults And Children ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean Concentration

In this study, the aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) concentration in traditional and industrial milk and risk assessment due to AFM1 exposure using the Monte Carlo simulations technique was investigated. The mean concentration of AFM1 in traditional and industrial milk samples was 53.00 ± 11.49 and 54.33 ± 12.22 ng/L, respectively, which was higher than European Union and Codex standards. Percentile 95% of hazard quotient (HQ) adults and children due to industrial ingestion milk was 1.056 and 4.956, and traditional milk was 1.031 and 5.116, respectively. Hazard quotient in all age consumers was higher than 1. Therefore, consumers are at a considerable health risk.

scholarly journals Forecasting Development of COVID-19 Epidemic in European Union Using Entropy-Randomized Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 1010-1033
Author(s):  
Yuri Popkov ◽  
Yuri Dubnov ◽  
Alexey Popkov
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Testing Dataset ◽  
The Mean

The paper is devoted to the forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic by the novel method of randomized machine learning. This method is based on the idea of estimation of probability distributions of model parameters and noises on real data. Entropy-optimal distributions correspond to the state of maximum uncertainty which allows the resulting forecasts to be used as forecasts of the most "negative" scenario of the process under study. The resulting estimates of parameters and noises, which are probability distributions, must be generated, thus obtaining an ensemble of trajectories that considered to be analyzed by statistical methods. In this work, for the purposes of such an analysis, the mean and median trajectories over the ensemble are calculated, as well as the trajectory corresponding to the mean over distribution values of the model parameters. The proposed approach is used to predict the total number of infected people using a three-parameter logistic growth model. The conducted experiment is based on real COVID-19 epidemic data in several countries of the European Union. The main goal of the experiment is to demonstrate an entropy-randomized approach for predicting the epidemic process based on real data near the peak. The significant uncertainty contained in the available real data is modeled by an additive noise within 30%, which is used both at the training and predicting stages. To tune the hyperparameters of the model, the scheme is used to configure them according to a testing dataset with subsequent retraining of the model. It is shown that with the same datasets, the proposed approach makes it possible to predict the development of the epidemic more efficiently in comparison with the standard approach based on the least-squares method.

scholarly journals A Mathematical prediction of the time evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in some countries of the European Union using Monte Carlo simulations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignazio Ciufolini ◽  
Antonio Paolozzi
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Error Function ◽  
Monte Carlo Analysis ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Prediction Curve ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Eu

AbstractIn this paper we study the statistical evolution in time of the Covid-19 pandemic in Spain, Italy, Germany, Belgium, The Netherlands, Austria and Portugal, i.e., the countries of the European Union (EU) that have a number of positive cases higher than 12 thousand at April 7, 2020. France is the third country of the EU for number of cases but a jump in the data on April 3, 2020 does not allow, at least for the moment, to have a reliable prediction curve. The analysis is based on the use of a function of the type of a Gauss Error Function, with four parameters, as a Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF). A Monte Carlo analysis is used to estimate the uncertainty. The approach used in this paper is mathematical and statistical and thus does not explicitly consider a number of relevant issues, including number of nasopharyngeal swabs, mitigation measures, social distancing, virologic, epidemiological and models of contamination diffusion.

scholarly journals TFP determinants in European Union member states in 2000-2014 in the light of panel study results

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 65-78
Author(s):  
Izabela Młynarzewska-Borowiec
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
International Exchange ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Member States ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Human Skills ◽  
New Eu Members ◽  
European Union Member States

The aim of the article is to examine, whether and to what extent disparities in TFP levels in the group of 27 member states of the European Union in the period 2000–2014 are the result of difference in factors determining them. In the light of the conducted panel data analysis, the countries of the EU-15 group with higher levels of TFP differ from the „new” EU countries in terms of determinants of TFP. In the first group of countries the key role in shaping TFP play human capital resources, in the second group – the degree of involvement in international exchange. Human skills and qualifications are found to be completely irrelevant determinants of TFP levels in the „new” EU members states.

Number of export almond lots rejected in the EU due to USA sampling plans and aflatoxin contamination levels among lots tested

2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Whitaker ◽  
A. Slate ◽  
J. Adams ◽  
T. Birmingham
Keyword(s):  
Aflatoxin Contamination ◽  
Sampling Plan ◽  
Contamination Level ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Sampling Plans ◽  
Aflatoxin Concentration ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Contamination Levels ◽  
Aflatoxin B ◽  
The Eu

In March 2010, the European Union (EU) modified their aflatoxin limits and sampling plans for almonds, pistachios, and hazelnuts to closely resemble that developed by Codex in 2008. To assist the USA almond industry evaluate how to modify their aflatoxin sampling plan to minimise USA lots rejected by the EU at import, studies were conducted to: (a) develop a model to predict the number of USA almond lots rejected at origin and at destination by various Codex style aflatoxin-sampling plans used by the USA where accept/reject limits vary from EU limits of 8 ng/g aflatoxin B1 / 10 ng/g total aflatoxins (AFT) to 8, 6, 4, 2, and 0.5 ng/g AFT; (b) determine the effect of the level of aflatoxin contamination among lots tested in the USA on the number of lots accepted and rejected at origin and at destination; and (c) develop a method based upon lots rejected in the USA to predict the lots rejected several months later in the EU. For a given USA crop contamination level, as the accept/reject limits of the USA sampling plan decreases from 8 to 0.5 ng/g AFT, the number of lots rejected in the USA increases, the average aflatoxin concentration among all lots accepted for export decreases, the number of lots rejected in the EU decreases, and the average aflatoxin concentration among lots accepted in the EU decreases. For a given USA aflatoxin sampling plan used at origin, an increase in the USA crop aflatoxin contamination level increases the number of lots rejected at origin, increases the average aflatoxin concentration in USA lots accepted for export, increases the number of lots rejected in the EU, and increases the average aflatoxin concentration among lots accepted in the EU. Graphical techniques were developed to use the percentage of lots rejected in the USA to predict the percentage of USA lots rejected by the EU.

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