scholarly journals Prognostics and Health Management of Industrial Equipment

2013 ◽  
pp. 333-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Zio
Keyword(s):  
Health Management ◽  
The State ◽  
Equipment Failure ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Industrial Equipment ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Future Information ◽  
Open Issues

Prognostics and health management (PHM) is a field of research and application which aims at making use of past, present, and future information on the environmental, operational, and usage conditions of an equipment in order to detect its degradation, diagnose its faults, and predict and proactively manage its failures. This chapter reviews the state of knowledge on the methods for PHM, placing these in context with the different information and data which may be available for performing the task and identifying the current challenges and open issues which must be addressed for achieving reliable deployment in practice. The focus is predominantly on the prognostic part of PHM, which addresses the prediction of equipment failure occurrence and associated residual useful life (RUL).

Remaining useful life estimation: a review on stochastic process-based approaches

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dangbo Du ◽  
Jianxun Zhang ◽  
Xiaosheng Si ◽  
Changhua Hu
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Inverse Gaussian ◽  
Life Estimation ◽  
Inverse Gaussian Process ◽  
Pros And Cons ◽  
Useful Life

Background: Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is the central mission to the complex systems’ prognostics and health management. During last decades, numbers of developments and applications of the RUL estimation have proliferated. Objective: As one of the most popular approaches, stochastic process-based approach has been widely used for characterizing the degradation trajectories and estimating RULs. This paper aimed at reviewing the latest methods and patents on this topic. Methods: The review is concentrated on four common stochastic processes for degradation modelling and RUL estimation, i.e., Gamma process, Wiener process, inverse Gaussian process and Markov chain. Results: After a briefly review of these four models, we pointed out the pros and cons of them, as well as the improvement direction of each method. Conclusion: For better implementation, the applications of these four approaches on maintenance and decision-making are systematically introduced. Finally, the possible future trends are concluded tentatively.

Application of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) to Software System Fault and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Prediction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Rubyet Islam ◽  
Peter Sandborn
Keyword(s):  
Health Management ◽  
Standard Test ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Software Systems ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Performance Parameters ◽  
Statistical Validation ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Test Beds

Abstract Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is an engineering discipline focused on predicting the point at which systems or components will no longer perform as intended. The prediction is often articulated as a Remaining Useful Life (RUL). RUL is an important decision-making tool for contingency mitigation, i.e., the prediction of an RUL (and its associated confidence) enables decisions to be made about how and when to maintain the system. PHM is generally applied to hardware systems in the electronics and non-electronics application domains. The application of PHM (and RUL) concepts has not been explored for application to software. Today, software (SW) health management is confined to diagnostic assessments that identify problems, whereas prognostic assessment potentially indicates when in the future a problem will become detrimental to the operation of the system. Relevant areas such as SW defect prediction, SW reliability prediction, predictive maintenance of SW, SW degradation, and SW performance prediction, exist, but all represent static models, built upon historical data — none of which can calculate an RUL. This paper addresses the application of PHM concepts to software systems for fault predictions and RUL estimation. Specifically, we wish to address how PHM can be used to make decisions for SW systems such as version update, module changes, rejuvenation, maintenance scheduling and abandonment. This paper presents a method to prognostically and continuously predict the RUL of a SW system based on usage parameters (e.g., numbers and categories of releases) and multiple performance parameters (e.g., response time). The model is validated based on actual data (on performance parameters), generated by the test beds versus predicted data, generated by a predictive model. Statistical validation (regression validation) has been carried out as well. The test beds replicate and validate faults, collected from a real application, in a controlled and standard test (staging) environment. A case study based on publicly available data on faults and enhancement requests for the open-source Bugzilla application is presented. This case study demonstrates that PHM concepts can be applied to SW systems and RUL can be calculated to make decisions on software version update or upgrade, module changes, rejuvenation, maintenance schedule and total abandonment.

Prognostics Health Management Model for LED Package Failure Under Contaminated Environment

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pradeep Lall ◽  
Hao Zhang ◽  
Lynn Davis
Keyword(s):  
Health Management ◽  
Luminous Flux ◽  
The State ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Integrating Sphere ◽  
State Estimator ◽  
Acceptable Error ◽  
Color Shift ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
The Impact

The reliability consideration of LED products includes both luminous flux drop and color shift. Previous research either talks about luminous maintenance or color shift, because luminous flux degradation usually takes very long time to observe. In this paper, the impact of a VOC (volatile organic compound) contaminated luminous flux and color stability are examined. As a result, both luminous degradation and color shift had been recorded in a short time. Test samples are white, phosphor-converted, high-power LED packages. Absolute radiant flux is measured with integrating sphere system to calculate the luminous flux. Luminous flux degradation and color shift distance were plotted versus aging time to show the degradation pattern. A prognostic health management (PHM) method based on the state variables and state estimator have been proposed in this paper. In this PHM framework, unscented kalman filter (UKF) was deployed as the carrier of all states. During the estimation process, third order dynamic transfer function was used to implement the PHM framework. Both of the luminous flux and color shift distance have been used as the state variable with the same PHM framework to exam the robustness of the method. Predicted remaining useful life is calculated at every measurement point to compare with the tested remaining useful life. The result shows that state estimator can be used as the method for the PHM of LED degradation with respect to both luminous flux and color shift distance. The prediction of remaining useful life of LED package, made by the states estimator and data driven approach, falls in the acceptable error-bounds (20%) after a short training of the estimator.

scholarly journals Physics Based Deep Learning Technique for Prognostics

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Khaled Akkad
Keyword(s):  
Pattern Recognition ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Recognition Performance ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Learning Technique ◽  
Useful Life

Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is one of the most important aspects of prognostics and health management (PHM). Various deep learning (DL) based techniques have been developed and applied for the purposes of RUL estimation. One limitation of DL is the lack of physical interpretations as they are purely data driven models. Another limitation is the need for an exceedingly large amount of data to arrive at an acceptable pattern recognition performance for the purposes of RUL estimation. This research is aimed to overcome these limitations by developing physics based DL techniques for RUL prediction and validate the method with real run-to-failure datasets. The contribution of the research relies on creating hybrid DL based techniques as well as combining physics based approaches with DL techniques for effective RUL prediction.

scholarly journals Prognostics and Health Management for an Overhead Contact Line System - A Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehdi Brahimi ◽  
Kamal Medjaher ◽  
Mohammed Leouatni ◽  
Noureddine Zerhouni
Keyword(s):  
Contact Line ◽  
Health Management ◽  
The State ◽  
Railway Track ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Line System ◽  
Detection Algorithms ◽  
System A ◽  
Railway Industry ◽  
Geographically Distributed

The railway industry in European countries is standing a significant competition from other modes of transportation, particularly in the field of freight transport. In this competitive context, railway stakeholders need to modernize their products and develop innovative solutions to manage their asset and reduce operational expenditures. As a result, activities such as condition-based and predictive maintenance became a major concern. Under those circumstances, there is a pressing need to implement prognostics and health management (PHM) solutions such as remote monitoring, fault diagnostics techniques, and prognostics technologies. Many studies in the PHM area for railway applications are focused on infrastructure systems such as railway track or turnouts. However, one of the key systems to ensure an efficient operability of the infrastructure is the overhead contact line (OCL). A defect or a failure of an OCL component may cause considerable delays, lead to important financial losses, or affect passengers safety. In addition maintaining this kind of geographically distributed systemsis costly and difficult to forecast. This article reviews the state of practice and the state of the art of PHM for overhead contact line system. Key sensors, monitoring parameters, state detection algorithms, diagnostics approaches and prognostics models are reviewed. Also, research challenges and technical needs are highlighted

scholarly journals Enhancing Decisions in Prognostics and Health Management Framework

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Omar Bougacha ◽  
Christophe Varnier
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Closed Loop ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Management Framework ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Research Studies

Prognostics and health management have become increasingly important in recent years. Many research studies focus on a crucial phase consisting of predicting the remaining useful life of equipment or a component. However, this step is often carried out without taking into account the decisions that will be taken later. This article aims to propose a modification of the existing PHM framework to combine the prognostics and decision-making phases in a closed loop. In this paper, the presented framework is described and some elements for its implementation are proposed. A simplifiedexample is developed to illustrate the presented methodology of post-prognostic decision enhancement.

scholarly journals A Review of Prognostics and Health Management Applications in Nuclear Power Plants

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamie Coble ◽  
Pradeep Ramuhalli ◽  
Leonard Bond ◽  
J. Wesley Hines ◽  
Belle Upadhyaya
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Situational Awareness ◽  
Health Management ◽  
The State ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Original Design ◽  
Operating Cycle ◽  
The Us ◽  
Inspection And Maintenance

The US operating fleet of light water reactors (LWRs) is currently undergoing life extensions from the original 40- year license to 60 years of operation. In the US, 74 reactors have been approved for the first round license extension, and 19 additional applications are currently under review. Safe and economic operation of these plants beyond 60 years is now being considered in anticipation of a second round of license extensions to 80 years of operation. Greater situational awareness of key systems, structures, and components (SSCs) can provide the technical basis for extending the life of SSCs beyond the original design life and supports improvements in both safety and economics by supporting optimized maintenance planning and power uprates. These issues are not specific to the aging LWRs; future reactors (including Generation III+ LWRs, advanced reactors, small modular reactors, and fast reactors) can benefit from the same situational awareness. In fact, many small modular reactor (SMR) and advanced reactor designs have increased operating cycles (typically four years up to forty years), which reduce the opportunities for inspection and maintenance at frequent, scheduled outages. Understanding of the current condition of key equipment and the expected evolution of degradation during the next operating cycle allows for targeted inspection and maintenance activities. This article reviews the state of the art and the state of practice of prognostics and health management (PHM) for nuclear power systems. Key research needs and technical gaps are highlighted that must be addressed in order to fully realize the benefits of PHM in nuclear facilities.

Identifying Parameters for Nonlinear Degradation-Based Prognostics

2019 ◽  
pp. 237-260
Author(s):  
Feng Yang ◽  
Mohamed Salahuddin
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Identification ◽  
Induction Motors ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Degradation Process ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Health Index ◽  
Identification Method ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Parameter Values

Prognostics and health management (PHM) methodologies are increasingly playing active roles in improving the availability, reliability, efficiency, productivity, and safety of systems in many industries. In predicting the remaining useful life (RUL), this chapter introduces a prognostics framework with health index (HI) formulation, with specific emphasis on incorporating and validating nonlinear HI degradations. The key issue to the success of this framework is how to identify appropriate parameters in describing the behavior of the nonlinear HI degradations. Using exponential HI degradation as an example in predicting the RULs of induction motors, this chapter discusses three different explorations in verifying the existence of good parameter values as well as identifying the appropriate parameters automatically. Comprehensive experiments were carried out with degradation process (DP) data from eight induction motors, and it was discovered that good parameters can be automatically determined with the proposed parameter identification method.

scholarly journals An Applicable Predictive Maintenance Framework for the Absence of Run-to-Failure Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 5180
Author(s):  
Donghwan Kim ◽  
Seungchul Lee ◽  
Daeyoung Kim
Keyword(s):  
Health Management ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Predictive Maintenance ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Health Index ◽  
Computing Technology ◽  
Simulation Data ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Useful Life

As technology advances, the equipment becomes more complicated, and the importance of the Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) to monitor the condition of the equipment has risen. In recent years, various methodologies have emerged. With the development of computing technology, methodologies using machine learning and deep learning are gaining attention, in particular. As these algorithms become more advanced, the performance of detecting anomalies and predicting failures has improved dramatically. However, most of the studies are cases that depend on simulation data or assumed abnormal conditions. In addition, regardless of the existence of run-to-failure data, the methodologies are difficult to apply to the industrial site directly. To solve this problem, we propose a Predictive Maintenance (PdM) framework based on unsupervised learning in this paper, which can be applied directly in the industrial field regardless of run-to-failure data. The proposed framework consists of data acquisition, preprocessing data, constructing a Health Index, and predicting the remaining useful life. We propose a framework that can create and monitor models even when there are no accumulated run-to-failure data. The proposed framework was conducted in two different real-life cases, and the usefulness and applicability of the proposed methodology were verified.

PHM of Leadfree Electronic Assemblies Using Resistance Spectroscopy With Sequential Importance Resampling

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pradeep Lall ◽  
Ryan Lowe ◽  
Kai Goebel
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Feature Vector ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Residual Life ◽  
The State ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Damage Initiation ◽  
State Variable ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Electronic Assemblies

Electronic assemblies have been monitored using state-space vectors from resistance spectroscopy, phase-sensitive detection and particle filtering (PF) to quantify damage initiation, progression and remaining useful life of the electronic assembly. A prognostication health management (PHM) methodology has been presented for electronic components subjected to mechanical shock and vibration. The presented methodology is an advancement of the state-of-art, which presently focuses on reactive failure detection and provides limited or no insight into the system reliability and residual life. Previously damage initiation, damage progression, and residual life in the pre-failure space has been correlated with micro-structural damage based proxies, feature vectors based on time, spectral and joint time-frequency characteristics of electronics [Lall2004a–d, 2005a–b, 2006a–f, 2007a–e, 2008a–f]. Precise resistance measurements based on the resistance spectroscopy method have been used to monitor interconnects for damage and prognosticate failure [Lall 2009a,b, 2010a,b, Constable 1992, 2001]. In this paper, the effectiveness of the proposed particle filter and resistance spectroscopy based approach in a prognostic health management (PHM) framework has been demonstrated for electronics. The measured state variable has been related to the underlying damage state using non-linear finite element analysis. The particle filter has been used to estimate the state variable, rate of change of the state variable, acceleration of the state variable and construct a feature vector. The estimated state-space parameters have been used to extrapolate the feature vector into the future and predict the time-to-failure at which the feature vector will cross the failure threshold. Remaining useful life has been calculated based on the evolution of the state space feature vector. Standard prognostic health management metrics were used to quantify the performance of the algorithm against the actual remaining useful life. Application to part replacement decisions for ultra-high reliability system has been demonstrated. Using the technique described in the paper the appropriate time to reorder a replacement part could be monitored, and defended statistically. Robustness of the prognostication algorithm has been quantified using standard performance evaluation metrics.

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