Measuring Predictive Power

2014 ◽  
pp. 209-221
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Final Model ◽  
Adequate Level ◽  
Accuracy Level ◽  
The One ◽  
Available Resources

This chapter explains common methods in evaluating model predictive power. If the goal is defined as finding the most important/risky customers, there are many different ways using the available resources. Analysts measure accuracy and look for answers. It is obvious that two different analysts would provide different models; however, what both are looking for is an adequate level of accuracy. That means that analysts have freedom while looking for models, but the final model needs to be accurate and usable for decision making. No matter what the final model is, the most important factors before the final results are confirmed are the model relevance tests. One can, for example, create several models with the same goal but using different methods or methodologies. The one with highest accuracy level is the best one. It is important to point out that models do not have to be based only on one method but can combine several methods at the same time.

Comparative study on e-bikes’ decision-making behaviors under flashing green and green countdown

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Haoyang Meng ◽  
Sheng Dong ◽  
Jibiao Zhou ◽  
Shuichao Zhang ◽  
Zhenjiang Li
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Critical Issue ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Decision Points ◽  
Binary Logit ◽  
The One ◽  
Common Signal ◽  
And Function ◽  
Decision Behaviors ◽  
Stop Line

Green flash light (FG) and green countdown (GC) are the two most common signal formats applied in green-red transition that provides drivers additional alert before termination of green phase. Due to their importance and function in stop-pass decision-making process, proper use of them has become a critical issue to greatly improve the safety and efficiency of signalized intersections. Gradually e-bike riders have become more important commuters in China, however, the influence of FG or GC on them is not clear yet and need pay more attention to it. This study chooses two almost identical intersections to obtain highly accurate trajectory data of e-bike riders to study their decision-making behaviors under FG or GC. The e-bike riders’ behavior is classified into four categories and is to identify their stop-pass decision points using the acceleration trend. Two binary-logit models were built to predict the stop–pass decision behaviors for the different e-bike rider groups, explaining that the potential time to the stop-line is the dominant independent factor of the different behaviors of GC and FG. Furthermore empirical analysis of decision points indicated that GC provides the earlier stop-pass decision point and longer decision making duration on the one side while results in more complexity of decision making and greater risk of stop-line crossing than FG on the other side.

scholarly journals Promoting Interpersonal Relationships through Elbow Tag, a Traditional Sporting Game. A Multidimensional Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7887
Author(s):  
Verónica Muñoz-Arroyave ◽  
Miguel Pic ◽  
Rafael Luchoro-Parrilla ◽  
Jorge Serna ◽  
Cristòfol Salas-Santandreu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Interactions ◽  
Interpersonal Relationships ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Registration System ◽  
Motor Behaviors ◽  
Quasi Experimental

The aim of this research was to study from a multidimensional point of view (decisional, relational and energetic) the interpersonal relationships established by girls and boys in the traditional sport game of Elbow Tag. Scientific evidence has shown that Traditional Sport Games (TSG) trigger different effects on male and female genders in relation to emotional experiences, decision-making, conflicts and motor relationships. Despite the fact that these dimensions are intertwined, there are hardly any studies that interpret motor behaviors holistically, i.e., taking a multidimensional (360°) view of these dimensions. For this study, a quasi-experimental design was used and a type III design was applied, inspired by the observational methodology N/P/M. A total of 147 university students participated (M = 19.6, SD = 2.3): 47 girls (31.97%) and 100 boys (68.02%). A mixed ‘ad hoc’ registration system was designed with acceptable margins of data quality. Cross-tabulations, classification trees and T-patterns analysis were applied. The results indicated that social interactions between girls and boys in a mixed group were unequal. This difference was mainly due to decision-making (sub-role variable), which has much greater predictive power than the energetic variables (MV and steps).

Shelah's work on non-semi-proper iterations, II

2001 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 1865-1883 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaz Schlindwein
Keyword(s):  
Closed Subset ◽  
Stationary Subset ◽  
Finite Support ◽  
Countable Support ◽  
Final Model ◽  
Axiom A ◽  
Mahlo Cardinal ◽  
The One ◽  
Image Position ◽  
Special Case

One of the main goals in the theory of forcing iteration is to formulate preservation theorems for not collapsing ω1 which are as general as possible. This line leads from c.c.c. forcings using finite support iterations to Axiom A forcings and proper forcings using countable support iterations to semi-proper forcings using revised countable support iterations, and more recently, in work of Shelah, to yet more general classes of posets. In this paper we concentrate on a special case of the very general iteration theorem of Shelah from [5, chapter XV]. The class of posets handled by this theorem includes all semi-proper posets and also includes, among others, Namba forcing.In [5, chapter XV] Shelah shows that, roughly, revised countable support forcing iterations in which the constituent posets are either semi-proper or Namba forcing or P[W] (the forcing for collapsing a stationary co-stationary subset ofwith countable conditions) do not collapse ℵ1. The iteration must contain sufficiently many cardinal collapses, for example, Levy collapses. The most easily quotable combinatorial application is the consistency (relative to a Mahlo cardinal) of ZFC + CH fails + whenever A ∪ B = ω2 then one of A or B contains an uncountable sequentially closed subset. The iteration Shelah uses to construct this model is built using P[W] to “attack” potential counterexamples, Levy collapses to ensure that the cardinals collapsed by the various P[W]'s are sufficiently well separated, and Cohen forcings to ensure the failure of CH in the final model.In this paper we give details of the iteration theorem, but we do not address the combinatorial applications such as the one quoted above.These theorems from [5, chapter XV] are closely related to earlier work of Shelah [5, chapter XI], which dealt with iterated Namba and P[W] without allowing arbitrary semi-proper forcings to be included in the iteration. By allowing the inclusion of semi-proper forcings, [5, chapter XV] generalizes the conjunction of [5, Theorem XI.3.6] with [5, Conclusion XI.6.7].

Author reply: Empathy Does Provide Rational Support for Decisions. But Is It the Right Decision?

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 96-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fritz Breithaupt
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Rational Decision ◽  
Author Reply ◽  
Rational Decision Making ◽  
Rational Support ◽  
The One ◽  
The Right

This article examines the relation of empathy and rational judgment. When people observe a conflict most are quick to side with one of the parties. Once a side has been taken, empathy with that party further solidifies this choice. Hence, it will be suggested that empathy is not neutral to judgment and rational decision-making. This does not mean, however, that the one who empathizes will necessarily have made the best choice.

scholarly journals Theology at Thresholds: Learning from a Practice ‘In Transition’

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Muers ◽  
Rhiannon Grant
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
The Other ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Theological Ethics ◽  
Reciprocal Influence ◽  
Core Practices ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Collective Process ◽  
The One ◽  
Over Time

Recent developments in contemporary theology and theological ethics have directed academic attention to the interrelationships of theological claims, on the one hand, and core community-forming practices, on the other. This article considers the value for theology of attending to practice at the boundaries, the margins, or, as we prefer to express it, the threshold of a community’s institutional or liturgical life. We argue that marginal or threshold practices can offer insights into processes of theological change – and into the mediation between, and reciprocal influence of, ‘church’ and ‘world’. Our discussion focuses on an example from contemporary British Quakerism. ‘Threshing meetings’ are occasions at which an issue can be ‘threshed out’ as part of a collective process of decision-making. Drawing on a 2015 small-scale study (using a survey and focus group) of British Quaker attitudes to and experiences of threshing meetings, set in the wider context of Quaker tradition, we interpret these meetings as a space for working through – in context and over time – tensions within Quaker theology, practice and self-understandings, particularly those that emerge within, and in relation to, core practices of Quaker decision-making.

Lessing's Treatment of the Story of the Ring, and its Teaching

PMLA ◽  
1901 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 107-116
Author(s):  
W. H. Carruth
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
The Other ◽  
Outward Appearance ◽  
Final Version ◽  
Good Works ◽  
Relative Value ◽  
Healing Power ◽  
Divine Origin ◽  
The One ◽  
Point Of Departure

In Westermann's Monatshefte for January, 1891, and later in his ‘Life of Lessing,‘ Professor Erich Schmidt has outlined the chief features of the history and transformations of the story of the three rings in Europe. On examination it will be found that all the versions of the story belong to one or the other of two types, which are represented by the two earliest forms of the story preserved to us. The oldest version, that of the Spanish Jew Salomo ben Verga, tells of two rings or jewels only, which were in outward appearance exactly alike, and there is no question of one being genuine and the other false, but only of the relative value of the two. In the absence of the father it is found impossible to decide the question, and thus the decision between Christianity and Judaism is simply avoided. In Li Dis dou vrai aniel, a French poem of the end of the twelfth century, three rings appear, and to the original or genuine ring is attributed a marvelous healing power by which it may be recognized, and following which a decision is arrived at among the three religions, in this case in favor of Christianity, although ther were not wanting later narrators so bold as to hint that the true ring was possessed by Judaism. The version of Etienne de Bourbon, the versions of the Cento Novelle, the three versions of the Gesta Romanorum, all belong to one or the other of two types. We may refer to these two types as the Spanish type and the French type. Those of the first type, to which belongs also the version of Boccaccio, the one from which Lessing took his point of departure, avoid a decision, implying that all religions are equally authoritative, but without inherent or inner evidence of their quality. Those of the second type, to which in many of its features Lessing's final version of the story is allied, lead to a decision, making religion of divine origin indeed, but supplying a test, that of good works, whereby the true religion may be recognized.

Jumping to conclusions – an analysis of the NBA Draft Combine athleticism data and its influence on managerial decision-making

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Berger ◽  
Frank Daumann
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Quality ◽  
Managerial Behavior ◽  
Managerial Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Selection Behavior

PurposeThe NBA Draft policy pursues the goal to provide the weakest teams with the most talented young players to close the gap to the superior competition. But it hinges on appropriate talent evaluation skills of the respective organizations. Research suggests the policy might be valid but to date unable to produce its intended results due to the “human judgement-factor”. This paper investigates specific managerial selection-behavior-influencing information to examine why decision-makers seem to fail to constantly seize the opportunities the draft presents them with.Design/methodology/approachAthleticism data produced within the NBA Draft Combine setting is strongly considered in the player evaluations and consequently informs the draft decisions of NBA managers. Curiously, research has failed to find much predictive power within the players pre-draft combine results for their post-draft performance. This paper investigates this clear disconnect, by examining the pre- and post-draft data from 2000 to 2019 using principal component and regression analysis.FindingsEvidence for an athletic-induced decision-quality-lowering bias within the NBA Draft process was found. The analysis proves that players with better NBA Draft Combine results tend to get drafted earlier. Controlling for position, age and pre-draft performance there seems to be no proper justification based on post-draft performance for this managerial behavior. This produces systematic errors within the structure of the NBA Draft process and leads to problematic outcomes for the entire league-policy.Originality/valueThe paper delivers first evidence for an athleticism-induced decision-making bias regarding the NBA Draft process. Informing future selection-behavior of managers this research could improve NBA Draft decision-making quality.

scholarly journals DECISION-MAKING AT THE FIRST MANAGEMENT LEVEL: THE INTERFERENCE OF THE ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
GUSTAVO G. MARCHISOTTI ◽  
MARIA DE L. C. DOMINGOS ◽  
RODRIGO L. DE ALMEIDA
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Organizational Culture ◽  
Treatment Technique ◽  
Exploratory Research ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Management Level ◽  
Decision Making Capacity ◽  
Practical Usefulness ◽  
The One ◽  
Different Origins

ABSTRACT Purpose: This article aims at explaining how a decision is made in the first management level, within five different organizations, from different origins - American, Brazilian and Chinese - in different branches of activity. Originality/value: This is an original work, since it goes beyond the frontiers of knowledge about the subject researched, both for its approach and for its practical usefulness in the day-to-day of the decision makers, being useful for both professionals - and decision making - and for companies - on how to improve the decision-making capacity of their managers. Design/methodology/approach: Fifty managers were interviewed, through the application of a qualitative exploratory research, with the collection of data through semi-structured interviews and content analysis as data analysis and treatment technique. Findings: One may conclude that the decision-making of the first level decision-making managers is more rational. Also, the organizational culture, among the studied variables is the one with the greater impact in the way this management level makes the decisions. This influence of the organizational culture contains three important elements: 1. the need of the manager to act procedurally, using the rules and standards of the company, 2. the use of supporting tools for the decision-making and 3. the learning from the current relationship - or from the past one - with their peers. To go deeper in the theme, we suggest the analysis of the influence of gender in decision-making, under the focus of rationality or intuition, in the first level of the managerial function of the organizations.

scholarly journals Homophily, heterophily and the diversity of messages among decision-making individuals

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 180027 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pouria Ramazi ◽  
James Riehl ◽  
Ming Cao
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Replicator Dynamics ◽  
Evolutionary Games ◽  
Cheap Talk ◽  
Convergence Result ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Dominated Strategies ◽  
The Face ◽  
Cheap Talk Games ◽  
The One

To better understand the intriguing mechanisms behind cooperation among decision-making individuals, we study the simple yet appealing use of preplay communication or cheap talk in evolutionary games, when players are able to choose strategies based on whether an opponent sends the same message as they do. So when playing games, in addition to pure cooperation and defection, players have two new strategies in this setting: homophilic (respectively, heterophilic) cooperation which is to cooperate (respectively, defect) only with those who send the same message as they do. We reveal the intrinsic qualities of individuals playing the two strategies and show that under the replicator dynamics, homophilic cooperators engage in a battle of messages and will become dominated by whichever message is the most prevalent at the start, while populations of heterophilic cooperators exhibit a more harmonious behaviour, converging to a state of maximal diversity. Then we take Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD) as the base of the cheap-talk game and show that the hostility of heterophilics to individuals with similar messages leaves no possibility for pure cooperators to survive in a population of the two, whereas the one-message dominance of homophilics allows for pure cooperators with the same tag as the dominant homophilics to coexist in the population, demonstrating that homophilics are more cooperative than heterophilics. Finally, we generalize an existing convergence result on population shares associated with weakly dominated strategies to a broadly applicable theorem and complete previous research on PD games with preplay communication by proving that the frequencies of all types of cooperators, i.e. pure, homophilic and heterophilic, converge to zero in the face of defectors. This implies homophily and heterophily cannot facilitate the long-term survival of cooperation in this setting, which urges studying cheap-talk games under other reproduction dynamics.

scholarly journals History teaching as a designed meaning-making process: Teacher facilitation of student–subject relationships

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Heidi Eskelund Knudsen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Meaning Making ◽  
The Other ◽  
Pedagogical Strategies ◽  
Pedagogical Tool ◽  
History Teaching ◽  
Teaching Situation ◽  
Communicative Process ◽  
The One ◽  
Student Subject

This article is an empirical analysis of history teaching as a communicative process. Dialogic history teaching develops as a designed meaning-making process that depends on thorough pedagogical strategies and decisions, and requires cohesion in teacher expectations, introductions and interventions. A micro-dialogic study is presented in this article to document a paradoxical teaching situation where history as subject-related content all but disappeared from a group of students' meaning-making processes because they were preoccupied with figuring out their teacher's intentions. History teaching thus turned into 'just teaching' without the teacher or the students being aware of it. A strong emphasis on history teaching as a communicative process and dialogue as a key pedagogical tool have potential with regard to pedagogical decision-making and strategies on the one hand, and for relationships between students and history as subject-related content on the other. The analysis presented in this article contributes to a growing field of studies on dialogic history teaching, of which the focus on students as an important part of classroom dialogues is central.

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