scholarly journals Exchange Rate Fluctuations & Economy of Pakistan, Time series Analysis (1989-2013)

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (16) ◽  
pp. 474-489
Author(s):  
Muhammad Salih Memon ◽  
Raheem Bux Soomro ◽  
Sajid Hussain Mirani ◽  
Mansoor Ahmed Soomro
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Ministry Of Finance

Economic stability is remained on topmost priority of every country, and different measures were suggested by the researchers worldwide, by moving on the same track study was carried out to predict the currency valuation factors, data were collected from export promotion bureau, state bank of Pakistan, and ministry of finance for 25 years (1989-2013), by using linear regression; currency valuation as dependent variable, exports, changes in external debt, and total reserves as independent variables and concluded that only the exports of Pakistan is a right predictor of currency valuation of the country which policy makers must have incorporate in formation of economic policies and setting the targets before fiscal policy. 

scholarly journals Investigating External Debt and Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Nigeria: Any Difference with ARDL Model?

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (3) ◽  
pp. 53-64
Author(s):  
Timothy Ayomitunde Aderemi ◽  
Lawrence Olusegun Fagbola ◽  
Gbenro Matthew Sokunbi ◽  
Chidinma Edith Ebere
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Promotion Policy ◽  
Foreign Reserve ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

AbstractOne of the contending issues in Nigeria in the recent time is external debt and exchange rate fluctuations. In view of the above, this study examined the relationship between external debt and exchange rate fluctuations in Nigeria over the period of 1981 to 2018. Consequently, the study employed Autoregressive Distribution Lag Model to address the objective of the study. The major findings that originated in this paper are as follows: external debt, debt service payment and foreign reserve have a significant positive impact on exchange rate fluctuations in the short run in Nigeria. Furthermore, based on these findings, recommendations are made for the policy makers that external debt as a means of financing budget deficit should be minimized if not totally discouraged in Nigeria because its servicing in particular and repayment put pressure on foreign exchange market in the short run and thereby leads to exchange rate fluctuations in terms of depreciation of naira in the country. Also, country’s foreign reserve should be strengthened through the implementation of aggressive export promotion policy in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Nilai Aktiva Bersih Reksadana Syariah (Periode 2016-2019)

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 412-423
Author(s):  
Aldiansyah Aldiansyah ◽  
Fifi Afiyanti Tripuspitorini ◽  
Fatmi Hadiani
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Yield Rate ◽  
Asset Value ◽  
Value Net

This study aims to determine the effect of inflation, Rupiah exchange rate, SBIS yield rate, ISSI on NAV of Islamic mutual funds in Indonesia. The analytical method used is multiple linear regression using secondary data in the form of time series from January 2016 to December 2019. The independent variables analyzed in this study are inflation, rupiah exchange rates, returns on SBIS and ISSI, while the dependent variable is Asset Value. Net Sharia Mutual Funds. The results of this study indicate that inflation has no significant effect on NAV of Sharia Mutual Funds, Exchange Rate, ISSI has a significant effect on NAV of Sharia Mutual Funds, SBIS has a significant effect on NAV of Sharia Mutual Funds in opposite directions

scholarly journals Effect of some economic indicators on external debt in Sudan from 2002-2017: أثر بعض المؤشرات الاقتصادية على الدين الخارجي في السودان للفترة 2002-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gosay Mahgoub mohammedsalih Baba,  Abdulazim Suliman Almahal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Current Account ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
High Interest ◽  
Paris Club

    aim to determine the type and tracks of the correlation between variables of deficit of government budget، current account deficit of the balance of payments، exchange rate، Gross Domestic Product(GDP) on the total external debt and clarify the impact of separation or independence of South Sudan in September 2011،also the financial crisis in 2008 on variables of paper، the hypotheses included a positive correlation & impact between the independents variables deficit variables in the general budget and the deficit in the current account of balance of payments، GDP on dependent variable external debt of Sudan as the inverse correlation & impact between the exchange rate with total external debt for the period 2006-2017،used historical approach to describe reasons and evolution of the external debt problem of Sudan causes، in addition، analytical descriptive method by correlation test between the independent variables and the dependent variable to determine the relationship type، also used multiple regression model in measuring and estimating the effect of independent variables on the dependent. The results outcome،the cumulative value of bilateral debt and high interest rates (contractual interest and delayed interest) significantly affect the accumulation of Sudan's total foreign debt،،maintain both the deficits in budget and in current account also GDP values a positive correlation of statistical significance and a degree of impact on Sudan's external debt، with Reverse correlation exchange rate، caused from Both of the world financial crisis and the independence of South Sudan in 2011 the، indirect impact on the external debt through its effect of increasing the value of the dollar with a decline of local currency and increasing the budget deficit and its impact on external debt، However، refers the weakness of impact in current account due to growth of gold exports in the period under study. Also the high ratio of bilateral debt owed to non-members of the Paris Club and its high interest rates it is complicated possibility of a solution through the HIPC and others initiatives، The necessary of structural reforms in economic policies by focusing on supporting national production elements as to overcome the obstacles of domestic investment and the abolition of taxes and customs on Alumni projects، microfinance projects، exporters projects as well as trying to follow a rational economic policy using foreign loans in the narrowest limits، and focus on loans on concessional terms،necessary to create an economic partnership between Sudan and creditors countries focus of largest proportion of debts، which is the official bilateral debt (non-members of the Paris Club)، to promote and facilitate the position of Sudan in negotiation of initiative of the HIPC or With regard of interest rate because it is largest and most significant obstruction in Sudan external debt.    

scholarly journals The public debt of the Republic of Serbia: The current situation and perspectives

2005 ◽  
Vol 50 (164) ◽  
pp. 119-134
Author(s):  
Marinko Bosnjak
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Use Of Resources ◽  
Growth Stability ◽  
Ministry Of Finance ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
The Republic

The paper deals with the internal and external debt situation of the Republic of Serbia based on the data relating to 2000 and 2004, issued by the Ministry of Finance, as well as the basic macroeconomic assumptions for the regular servicing of debts. The general results of this research indicate that the key institutional assumptions for the strengthening of annuity payment ability are consistent reforms and economic policies, and the key economic assumptions for debt repayment are economics growth, stability and reduction in the volume and changing the structure of government consumption. Investment and export growth which provides for growth in gross domestic product and income in foreign currency, which should be sufficient for debts repayment in the next five years, expressed in time periods as well as annuity payments per year, are the key significance for servicing of debts. Increase in economy efficiency, as well as the efficient use of resources obtained by credit facilities, are guaranties of maintaining the balance between volume and repayment capabilities of debts.

scholarly journals Domestic Ban Versus Border Rejections: A Case of Oman’s Fish Exports to the EU

SAGE Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 215824401882307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shekar Bose ◽  
Amina Marhoon Rashid Al Naabi ◽  
Houcine Boughanmi ◽  
Jaynab Begum Yousuf
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Relative Significance ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Adaptive Policy ◽  
The Eu

The decline of Oman’s fish exports to the European Union (EU) since mid-2000s has caused legitimate concerns among policy makers and exporters. However, the potential reasons for the decline have not been fully elucidated. To ascertain the underlying causes of such decline, this article empirically examines the relative significance of potential economic and policy-related factors such as border rejections influenced by health and safety measures, supply and demand capacities, domestic ban, domestic structural changes, and exchange rate fluctuations on Oman’s fish exports to the EU. The results obtained from the dynamic unbalanced panel data model for the period 2000-2013 indicate that fish exports to the EU markets have been influenced by the domestic ban on export, domestic structural changes, and exchange rate fluctuations rather than by border rejections. These findings provide important signal to policy makers of the respective countries in designing adaptive policy approach to address such influences.

scholarly journals EFFECT OF EXTERNAL DEBT LIABILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN KENYA

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-42
Author(s):  
Joshua Matanda ◽  
Samuel Mbalu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Private Debt ◽  
Independent Variables

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to evaluate the effect of external debt liability on economic growth in Kenya. Materials and Methods: The descriptive research design was adopted. The target population was three institutions: The National Treasury, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, and the World Bank. The study used time series data. The designated sample for this study covered a period of 43 years (1977–2019). Secondary data was used in this study. The data collected was on GDP of Kenya between 1977 and 2019, External public debt in terms of US dollars from 1977 to 2019, External private debt from 1977 and 2019 and external debt service payments from 1977 to 2019, all in US dollars. A data collection sheet was used to collect the data on the four variables. World Bank and World Development Indicator economic Meta data and published data by Central Bank of Kenya and the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics were the source of data for this study. The study used Eviews version 10 for analyzing and presenting study findings. The study employed multivariate time series and panel data regression analysis. The model employed GDP as a measure of economic growth and external public debt, external private debt, and external debt service payment as its main independent variables. Results:  The study found out that only the external private debt and the debt service payment showed bilateral causal relationship. External public debt and external private debt had a positive and significant effect on the GDP, indicating that external debt promotes economic growth in Kenya. The external debt service payment showed a negative and a significant effect on the GDP as well. The model explained 97% variability of the GDP as explained by the three independent variables combined. The 3% is attributed to other factors, not included in this study. Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy: The study recommends a more robust multivariate model to be employed to include more macro-economic variables to explain economic growth. A decade-to-decade comparison can also be done to compare the effects of the external debt on Kenyan economic growth in different time intervals. Fiscal and monetary policies should be reviewed to encourage more domestic and foreign investments and discourage external borrowing to fund budget deficits or projects with low or no returns.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH INFLASI, PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO (PDB), DAN NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP TABUNGAN MUDHARABAH PADA BANK UMUM SYARIAH (PERIODE 2013-2017)

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 138
Author(s):  
Rita Nur Wahyuningrum ◽  
Aan Zainul Anwar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Central Statistics

<p>This study aims to analyze the effect of inflation, gross domestic product (GDP) and rupiah exchange rate on Mudharabah savings in Islamic banking in Indonesia. The data used is time series data for the period March 2013 to September 2017, which was published by Bank Indonesia from the Islamic Banking Statistics Report and the Central Statistics Agency. The technique of analyzing the research is qualitative with the method of Multiple Linear Regression. The results of this study indicate that simultaneously the Inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Exchange Rate variables together have a significant effect on Mudharabah Savings. While partially only the Exchange Rate variable has a significant effect on Mudharabah Savings. Inflation Variables and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) have no significant effect on Mudharabah Savings.</p><p> </p><p>Keyword: inflation, gross domestic product, exchange rate, mudharabah saving</p>

scholarly journals The Effect of Consumption On The Society Welfare In Sampang District

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Syamsul Arifin ◽  
Nur Aini Anisa ◽  
Siswohadi Siswohadi ◽  
Aisyah Darti Megasari ◽  
Abu Darim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Regression Technique ◽  
Quantitative Approach ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Significant Positive Effect ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Linear Regression Technique ◽  
Positive Effect

Welfare is one of the most important aspects of maintaining and fostering social and economic stability because it is necessary to minimize social jealousy in society. This study aims to analyze the effect of economic consumption on the welfare of the society in Sampang district. This research uses quantitative approach. This research conducted in Sampang District by using time series data and this research is analyzed by using linear regression technique. According to the result of research indicate that consumption has significant positive effect on the welfare of the society in Sampang district. Based on the results of research that has been conducted, consumption significantly influences the welfare of the society in Sampang district.

scholarly journals Analisis impor beras Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 89-98
Author(s):  
Yulia Sani ◽  
Siti Hodijah ◽  
Rosmeli Rosmeli
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Analysis Tools ◽  
Rice Price

This study aims to analyze the development of each variable and its effect on rice imports in Indonesia for the period 1998-2017. This research uses descriptive and quantitative analysis tools. The data used is time-series data or time series. To analyze this research, the "Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method was used. The results showed that the independent variables simultaneously had a significant effect on rice imports in Indonesia. Partially, the domestic rice price variable has a positive and significant effect on rice imports in Indonesia, the exchange rate variable has a negative and significant effect on rice imports in Indonesia and the GDP variable has a negative and significant effect on rice imports in Indonesia. Keywords: Rice imports, Exchange rate, The price of rice

scholarly journals PENGARUH SUBSIDI BBM TERHADAP IMPOR MINYAK BUMI PERIODE 1980 – 2013

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Riwi Sumantyo ◽  
Puji Lestari
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Data Use ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Fuel Subsidies ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government

The study on the effect of fuel subsidies toward oil import is a controversial topicdiscussions. This study will explore the effect of fuel subsidies on oil import by addingseveral independent variables, consist of; the number of vehichles, the exchange rateand inflation. Data use time series data from 1980-2013. The tool of analyze is OrdinaryLeast Squares Method (OLS).Based on the results show that the simultaneous testexplains that the fuel subsidies, the number of vehichles, the exchange rate, and inflationhave a significant effect on oil import. However partially, the variables of fuel subsidies,the number of vehichles, and the exchange rate have a positive and significant effecton oil import. Inflation does not affect on oil import. The coefficient of determinationuses Adjusted R-square test is about 98%. The implication of this study is governmentscan increase oil production Indonesia. The government should facilitate the licensing ofinvestment and rejuvenate the old oil wells. It aims to reduce Indonesia dependence onoil import so that it can save foreign exchange reserves.

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