Risk Analysis Using Simulation Software Applied on a Road Infrastructure Project

2018 ◽  
pp. 99-109
Author(s):  
Vijaya S. Desai
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Software Tools ◽  
Accurate Analysis ◽  
Road Infrastructure ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Infrastructure Project

Risk management in infrastructure projects has been a very important process to achieve the project objectives, namely: time, cost, quality, safety and environmental sustainability. Huge investments are made in infrastructure construction projects like roads, railways, ports, airports, electricity, telecommunication, oil gas pipelines and irrigation. This growing Increase in investment in infrastructure investment projects demands requires close monitoring of costs to ensure a net return. The evaluation of returns on investment at the conceptual stage plays a vital role in this phase. Software tools help in bringing out near accurate analysis of returns on investments and to support project viability under multiple circumstances. The paper presents an analysis of how software was applied to evaluate and mitigate risk during the case of a six lane road infrastructure project. The unit of analysis was the impact of cost of construction cost, interest rates for loans, methods of depreciation, revenue sharing on various financial indices: IRR, MIRR, DSCR and payback period. The interpretation was that software tools can be used to perform risk analysis, sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis. The case study makes a contribution to the body of knowledge by developing guidelines for using software tools in risk management.

Risk Analysis Using Simulation Software Applied on a Road Infrastructure Project

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijaya S. Desai
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Software Tools ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
The Body ◽  
Close Monitoring ◽  
Road Infrastructure ◽  
Infrastructure Project ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
The Impact

Risk management in infrastructure projects has been a very important process to achieve the project objectives, namely: time, cost, quality, safety and environmental sustainability. Huge investments are made in infrastructure construction projects like roads, railways, ports, airports, electricity, telecommunication, oil gas pipelines and irrigation. This growing Increase in investment in infrastructure investment projects demands requires close monitoring of costs to ensure a net return. The evaluation of returns on investment at the conceptual stage plays a vital role in this phase. Software tools help in bringing out near accurate analysis of returns on investments and to support project viability under multiple circumstances. The paper presents an analysis of how software was applied to evaluate and mitigate risk during the case of a six lane road infrastructure project. The unit of analysis was the impact of cost of construction cost, interest rates for loans, methods of depreciation, revenue sharing on various financial indices: IRR, MIRR, DSCR and payback period. The interpretation was that software tools can be used to perform risk analysis, sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis. The case study makes a contribution to the body of knowledge by developing guidelines for using software tools in risk management.

Design Thinking as a Tool for the Analysis of Project Risks

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 60-77
Author(s):  
E. V. Vasilieva ◽  
T. V. Gaibova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Design Thinking ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Team Members ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
Project Risk Analysis

This paper describes the method of project risk analysis based on design thinking and explores the possibility of its application for industrial investment projects. Traditional and suggested approaches to project risk management have been compared. Several risk analysis artifacts have been added to the standard list of artifacts. An iterative procedure for the formation of risk analysis artifacts has been developed, with the purpose of integrating the risk management process into strategic and prompt decision-making during project management. A list of tools at each stage of design thinking for risk management within the framework of real investment projects has been proposed. The suggested technology helps to determine project objectives and content and adapt them in regards to possible; as well as to implement measures aimed at reducing these risks, to increase productivity of the existing risk assessment and risk management tools, to organize effective cooperation between project team members, and to promote accumulation of knowledge about the project during its development and implementation.The authors declare no conflict of interest.

scholarly journals Research for Risk Management of Construction Projects in Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 2034
Author(s):  
Chien-Liang Lin ◽  
Bey-Kun Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Sustainable Operation ◽  
Management Procedure ◽  
Risk Managers

Risks inevitably exist in all stages of a project. In a construction project, which is highly dynamic and complex, risk factors affect the expected achievement rates of the three main performance goals, namely schedule, cost, and quality. A comprehensive risk management procedure requires three crucial steps: risk confirmation, analysis, and treatment. Risk analysis is the core of risk management. Through structural equation modeling, this study developed a risk analysis model that takes a different perspective and considered the occurrence probability of risk events and the extent to which these events affect a project. The contractor dimension was discovered to exert the strongest influence on an overall project, followed by the subcontractor and design dimensions. This paper proposes a novel construction project risk analysis model, which considers the entire project. The proposed model can be used as a reference for risk managers to make decisions about project risks, so as to achieve the ultimate goal of saving resources and the sustainable operation of the construction project.

scholarly journals Features of Investment Risk Analysis and Assessment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nargiza Shaislamova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Risk Management Methodology ◽  
Break Even Point

The article examines the essence of the analysis and assessment of the risks of investment projects in the innovative development of the country's economy. One of the most important tasks for investors in the context of the coronavirus crisis is the analysis, assessment and effective management of risks that can affect investment projects before investing. And also, the investor must identify the factors that negatively affect the project and develop measures to reduce their negative impact. Based on the above, it can be said that improving the risk management methodology and evaluating investment projects based on modern and best practices has become one of the urgent tasks. In this article, the author explains the essence of risk management and presents the main stages of risk management developed by foreign and domestic economists, and also expresses her own opinion about the stages of risk management of investment projects in the form of a scheme. The article also presents the content of the methods of risk analysis that are frequently used in practice. In particular, the author shows the essence of methods for assessing investment risks, such as Break-even point, the sensitivity analysis of the project, the method of Scenarios, the method for assessing the sustainability of the project, Expert evaluation method, Analogy method, and others. We can identify two aims of research: 1) to study the stages of investment risk management, developed by foreign and domestic scientists, and, on their basis, to propose the stages of risk management, developed by the author; 2) to study various methods of risk assessment, which are a key part of investment risk management, and develop proposals for their application in Uzbekistan. To achieve the objectives of the study, the following tasks were identified:  explain the content of the economic categories “risk” and “investment risk”;  explain the content of investment risk management;  study of the process (stages) of investment risk management, developed by foreign and domestic economists;  development by the author of the stages of the investment risk management process;  study and outline methods for assessing the risks of investment projects;  development of recommendations on the application of risk assessment methods in Uzbekistan. Subject of research: methods for assessing the risks of investment projects. Information sources for writing the research was books and articles by foreign and domestic economists.

scholarly journals Alternative approach to analysis of risks affecting the efficiency of implementing the investment project in the conditions of global instability of economic space

2020 ◽  
Vol 74 ◽  
pp. 06009
Author(s):  
Liana M. Chechenova ◽  
Natalia V. Volykhina ◽  
Yuriy V. Egorov
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Global Instability ◽  
Random Factor ◽  
Economic Space ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Expert Assessments

This article is devoted to the study of improving the use of expert assessments for risk analysis, affecting the effectiveness of the implementation of a comprehensive investment project in the global instability of the economic space. The existing methods of expert assessments and Monte-Carlo simulation methods used to identify and assess the risks of investment projects are described. A systematic analysis of the main risks of investment projects in the context of globalization and risk management methods was carried out. The author’s classification of risks of investment projects using the criteria of economic efficiency has been developed. An approach to risk analysis, affecting the effectiveness of the implementation of complex investment projects based on existing methods using the concept of the “reduced” random factor, is proposed. This approach is used to analyse project implementation risks in the conditions of market instability with the development of recommendations for managing the main project risks. The author’s risk classification of investment projects is important at the stage of analysing risks arising from the study of sales markets, as well as during the management decision-making process, which minimizes the possible adverse impact on an organization, including losses caused by random events. The proposed approach can be applied to the analysis, express-analysis and risk management of long-term complex investment projects in the conditions of global instability of the economic space.

scholarly journals Risk Analysis in Early Phase of Complex Infrastructure Projects

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Esra Tepeli
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Risk Allocation ◽  
Strategic Risk ◽  
Infrastructure Project ◽  
Interdependent Risks ◽  
And Control

Infrastructure construction projects are complex with a very long life-cycle, a complex organizational plan, a complex resource management, technical complexities, contractual complexities and macro-environmental factors. The complexity of an infrastructure project leads to the existence of interdependent risks, which are hard to anticipate and control. As the investment is major for these types of projects, the risks and opportunities are critical to the project success or failure, the risk factors need to be identified and analyzed before any decision-making process. While upfront planning is important, not all events and scenarios can be foreseen as the project can take several years to complete and may involve many companies and stakeholders. In this planning stage of the project, a robust risk analysis method is indispensable for identifying and analyzing the major risk and opportunity factors. In this paper, a formalized multi-criteria decision-making process is developed based on a strategic risk analysis in a complex environment: (1) in a very early stage and at a strategic level, (2) before the contracting phase in order to develop a risk allocation plan and negotiate it with the project owner.

STAKEHOLDERS’ RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE INVESTMENT CONSTRUCTION PROJECT

2018 ◽  
pp. 143-148
Author(s):  
Sergey Kolankov ◽  
Nadezhda Rubtsova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Practical Importance ◽  
Business Development ◽  
Risk Characteristics ◽  
Individual Project ◽  
Iso 31000 ◽  
The Given

Objective: To consider the risks both from the viewpoint of potential losses and implementation of extra opportunities. To analyze the aims of investment construction projects being one of the vital risk characteristics, State Standard R ISO 31000–2010. Risk management. Foundations and management. To state the main principles of risk analysis, as well as to perform the assessment of parties of the given process: proprietors (users for the purpose of one’s own requirements), investors, lessees, developers, professional (trust) managers. Methods: The methods of generalization, comparison and economic analysis were applied. Results: The notion of risks, as well as the concepts of risks, connected with a person’s wish to avoid the loss and acquire additional opportunities, was defined; investment construction projects, as well as the notion of “uncertainty” and the process of risk management were described. The classification of risks, their description by the main stakeholders of the investment construction projects was given. Practical importance: The conclusion was made on the appropriateness of detecting possible sources of business development during risk analysis, as well as running investment construction projects, personalization of risks for individual project stakeholders, expert judgement concept of obtained information feasibility on the extent of risk.

scholarly journals Contract modeling of investment projects in the field of oil and gas construction

2021 ◽  
Vol 266 ◽  
pp. 06001
Author(s):  
A.S. Altemirova ◽  
I.V. Burenina
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Management System ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Optimal Contract ◽  
Preliminary Assessment ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Risk Management System

The purpose of this article is to select and justify the optimal contract model for one of the largest investment and construction projects of PJSC based on a preliminary assessment of the project under several alternative contracts. To achieve this goal, the following results were obtained: first, a classification of contracts for investment and construction projects (ICP) was developed, adapted to the specifics of the oil and gas business, second, the process steps for planning the contract model of oil and gas construction projects were formed, and third, a conclusion was made about the feasibility of using a particular contract model in terms of the project economy, its timing, the quality of decisions at each stage, and the risk management system.

scholarly journals Safety Risk Management in Dam Construction Projects: Literature Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-74
Author(s):  
Dinal Aulia ◽  
Lusi Marifah ◽  
Ikbal Yurrazak ◽  
Humiras Hardi Purba
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Technical Factor ◽  
Modern Approach ◽  
Safety Risk

Safety risk assessment in dams is a traditional and modern approach to the engineering process of dams on safety systems so as to produce a design history that has a good overall record and integrity. With this approach for both old and new dams, this safety risk assessment aims to determine whether the risk the hazard can be tolerated or not, if it cannot be tolerated then there must be a solution for action to reduce the risk of danger so that the safety of the dam can be obtained. The existing risk assessment can be used as the basis for the construction of the dam to its maintenance, in this study discussed risk assessment safety on dams located in several countries such as in Asia, Europe and America. The methods implemented include the preparation of safety risks, risk analysis, risk evaluation and safety risk management. Based on research results The main risk factor that causes safety responsibilities is the Contractor's responsibility, namely the Non-technical project factor (40.54%), the 2nd rank is the Undecided Responsibility due to internal technical factors (35.13%), the 3rd rank is the technical project factor namely Contractor's Responsibility (10.8%), Rank 4 is external technical factor and external non-technical factor, the last risk factor is internal non-technical factor (2.7%) namely Joint Responsibility. Keywords : Risk safety management, risk assessment, risk analysis, risk evaluation, dam project

scholarly journals RISK ANALYSIS IN THE INVESTMENTS OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS/RIZIKOS ANALIZĖS REIKŠMĖ STATYBOS INVESTICINIAMS PROJEKTAMS

1999 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-67
Author(s):  
Rima Tamošiūnienė
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Point Analysis ◽  
Legal Risks ◽  
Reduction Methods ◽  
Technical Risks ◽  
Breakeven Point

Lithuanian economy transformation into a market economy extremely increased the risk of enterprises. Transition from a producer market to a consumer market caused the technological innovations in construction business. It needs long-term investments. So the management of such investments risk is a problem of today. The paper deals with indentifying conceptual problems of risk and uncertainty definition as well as indicators for the quantitative risk management. Some aspects of the application of the risk management ideology which is thought as risk analysis and risk reduction are discussed. Risk analysis includes methods such as sensitivity analysis, breakeven point analysis, mathematical programming methods, scenario analysis, Monte-Carlo technique etc. There are many types of risk in business. Risks can be classified as external unforeseeable risks, external foreseeable (but not determined) risks, operating risks, technical risks, legal risks etc. The first step in risk management is the risk analysis, then follows the application of risk reduction methods.

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