Globalization and Time-Varying Market Efficiency

2019 ◽  
pp. 480-499
Author(s):  
Melik Kamışlı ◽  
Serap Kamışlı ◽  
Fatih Temizel
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Weak Form Efficiency

The main purpose of this study is to determine time-varying weak form efficiency of 18 Borsa İstanbul sub-sector indices. In line with this purpose weak form efficiency is tested with innovative technique alongside traditional methods. The study indicated that bank, real estate invest trusts, holding & investments, telecommunication, wood, paper & printing, insurance, tourism and transportation indices are not linear. The weak form efficiency of aforementioned indices is analyzed with a rolling KSS unit root test developed by Yılancı. It is concluded depending on the applied tests that weak form efficiency of all of the nonlinear sub-sector indices has a time-varying structure. Results also showed that global scale events affect weak form efficiency of the indices in different durations. Findings gained from the study can be used by investors in strategic portfolio management decisions and by policy makers as well.

scholarly journals Weak form market efficiency: A case study of Asia-Pacific markets

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Ratio Test ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
Watson Test ◽  
Weak Form Efficiency

This study aims to test the weak form market efficiency for five developed markets, nine emerging markets and three frontier markets in the Asia-Pacific region. The tools applied in the test of this form of market efficiency are serial correlation test, runs test and unit root test. The analysis is performed by using logarithm return for the period of 2008 to 2018. For all markets in our research, the results strongly reject the weak form efficiency when the unit root tests are carried out, while the results from the Durbin-Watson test are in complete contrast. However, in the runs test and variance ratio test, the results provide mixed evidences of weak form efficiency of the markets

scholarly journals Weak Form Efficiency of Pakistan Stock Market using Non-Parametric Approaches

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (6) ◽  
pp. 249-257
Author(s):  
Muhammad Irfan ◽  
Maria Irfan .
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Lilliefors Test ◽  
Anderson Darling ◽  
Non Parametric ◽  
Weak Form Efficiency

This paper studies the performance of Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) of Pakistan via nonparametric approaches. The study includes the weekly open and closing prices of KSE- 100 indexes for the period of 1st January 1999 to 31st August 2009. Several non-parametric approaches including KolmogorovSmirnov test (Lilliefors test), Ryan-Joiner test (Shapiro-Wilk), Anderson-Darling test, Phillips Perron (PP) unit root test and Runs test are used to test the conviction of the KSE stock market. All non-parametric tests graphically and numerically inform us that both return series do not follow the assumption of normality and randomness, which means rejecting the hypothesis of weak form of efficiency. Generally, results from the observed analysis strongly recommend that the Karachi Stock Market of Pakistan is not efficient.

scholarly journals The market efficiency of the Tanzania stock market

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 75-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josephine Njuguna
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Ratio Test ◽  
Variance Ratio ◽  
Test Unit ◽  
Variance Ratio Test

The purpose of this article is to examine the efficiency of the Tanzania stock market. The study attempts to answer whether the Tanzania stock market is weak-form efficient. The study applies a battery of tests: the serial correlation test, unit root tests, runs test and the variance ratio test using daily and weekly data with a sample spanning from November 2006 to August 2015 for the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE) all share index and from January 2009 to August 2015 for the DSE share index. Overall, the results of the market efficiency are mixed. The serial correlation test, unit root test and the runs test do not support weak-form efficiency, while the more robust variance ratio test supports weak-form efficiency for the DSE. The main contribution of the study is that the market efficiency of the Tanzania stock market has increased over the sample period. Keywords: adaptive market hypothesis, efficiency market hypothesis, serial correlations test, unit root test, runs test, variance ratio test, Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange. JEL Classification: G14, G15

Islamic Bond Announcement: Is There Any Effect on Returns?

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 327-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fitriya Fauzi ◽  
Dani Foo ◽  
Abdul Basyith
Keyword(s):  
Event Study ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Abnormal Return ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Study Analysis ◽  
Price Movements ◽  
Test Result ◽  
Weak Form Efficiency

This article investigates the effect of Islamic debt announcement on stock returns. Using data from 80 Malaysian firms and 20 Indonesian firms, which span from 2000 to 2009, an event study analysis is employed in this study; hence, the data of the daily closing stock prices for 2 years prior and 1 year after the announcement date are required in order to calculate the abnormal return using the abnormal return benchmark (mean adjusted return, market adjusted return and market model return). The findings for the event study analysis, using three benchmarks, reveal that there is a negative and significant impact for both average abnormal returns (AAR) and cumulative average abnormal returns (CAAR) for Malaysia. In contrast to the findings for Malaysia, the impact of Islamic debt announcement, using three benchmarks, is positive and significant for both AAR and CAAR for Indonesia. The unit root test result for Malaysia indicates that the market is efficient in the context of weak form efficiency, which suggests that the price movements are unpredictable. In contrast to Malaysia, the unit root test result for Indonesia indicates that the market is inefficient in the context of weak form efficiency, which suggests that the price movements are predictable.

Non-linear approach to Random Walk Test in selected African countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 362-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah ◽  
Paul Alagidede ◽  
Lord Mensah ◽  
Kwaku Ohene-Asare
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Random Walk ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Non Linear

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to re-examine the weak form efficiency of five African stock markets (South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Ghana and Mauritius) using various tests to assess the impact of non-linearity effect and thin trading which are prevalent in African markets on market efficiency. Design/methodology/approach The weekly returns of S&P/IFC return indices for five African countries over the period 2000-2013 were obtained from DataStream and analyzed. The study adopted the newly developed Non-Linear Fourier unit root test advanced by Enders and Lee (2004, 2009) which allows for an unknown number of structural breaks with unknown functional forms and non-linearity in data generating process of stock prices series to test the Random Walk Hypothesis (RWH) for the five markets, and an augment regression model. Findings In light of the empirical evidence the author(s) using Non-linear Fourier Unit Root Test only fail to reject the RWH for South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt leading to the conclusion that these markets follow the RWH and weak-form efficient whilst Ghana and Mauritius are weak-form inefficient. Besides, evaluating non-linear models without adjusting for thin trading effect shows that, South Africa and Ghana markets are weak-form efficient while Nigeria, Egypt and Mauritius are not. However, after accounting for thin trading effect, the author(s) find that South Africa and Egypt markets follow the RWH. The findings imply that market efficiency results depend on the methodology used. Originality/value This paper provides further evidence on stock market efficiency in emerging markets. The finding suggests that thin trading and non-linearity effect influences markets efficiency tests in African stock markets. Thus, recent structural adjustment and liberalization policies have not enhanced stock market operations in Africa. This paper therefore has implications for policy makers and international investors.

scholarly journals THE WEAK FORM MARKET EFFICIENCY IN THE MSCI ETF INDICES: CONVENTIONAL AND THE FOURIER UNIT ROOT TEST ON THE DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 409-423
Author(s):  
Sümeyra GAZEL
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Exchange Traded Funds ◽  
Unit Root Testing ◽  
Daily Data

In this study, weak form efficiency of the Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Index of developed and developing countries is tested. The Fourier Unit Root test, which does not lose its predictive power in terms of structural break date, number and form, is used on daily data. Also, conventional unit root tests are used for comparison between two different tests. Analysis results indicate common findings in some countries for both unit root testing. However, the Fourier unit root test results relatively more support the assumption of efficient market hypothesis that developed countries may be more efficient than developing countries.

scholarly journals The Evolving Efficiency Of The South African Stock Exchange

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 997 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lumengo Bonga-Bonga
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
South African ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
The South ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Nested Models ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Weak Form Efficiency

This paper tests the weak-form efficiency in the South African stock exchange - the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) - under the hypothesis that emerging markets efficiency evolves through time as these markets constantly enhance their regulatory environment. The paper makes use of the time varying GARCH model in testing this hypothesis. In addition, the paper compares the out-of-sample forecast performance of the time varying and fixed parameter GARCH models in predicting stock returns in the JSE making use of MSE-F statistics for nested models proposed (McCracken, 1999). The findings of the paper show that the two models provide the same conclusion in showing that the JSE has been efficient during the period of the analysis. In addition, the time varying model outperforms the fixed coefficient model in predicting the JSE stock returns. This finding indicates that the time-varying parameter model adds a benefit in testing the weak-form efficiency or modelling stock return in the JSE.

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