Growth and trend analysis of area, production and yield of rice: A scenario of rice security in Bangladesh

Bangladesh positioned as third rice producing country in the world. In Bangladesh, regional growth and trend in rice production determinants, disparities and similarities of rice production environments are highly desirable. In this study, the secondary time series data of area, production, and yield of rice from 1969–70 to 2019–20 were used to investigate the growth and trend by periodic, regional, seasonal and total basis. Quality checking, trend fitting, and classification analysis were performed by the Durbin-Watson test, Exponential growth model, Cochrane-Orcutt iteration method and clustering method. The production contribution to the national rice production of Boro rice is increasing at 0.97% per year, where Aus and Aman season production contribution significantly decreased by 0.48% and 0.49% per year. Among the regions, Mymensingh, Rangpur, Bogura, Jashore, Rajshahi, and Chattogram contributed the most i.e., 13.9%, 9.8%, 8.6%, 8.6%, 8.2%, and 8.0%, respectively. Nationally, the area of Aus and Aman had a decreasing trend with a -3.63% and -0.16% per year, respectively. But, in the recent period (Period III) increasing trend was observed in the most regions. The Boro cultivation area is increasing with a rate of 3.57% per year during 1984–85 to 2019–20. High yielding variety adoption rate has increased over the period and in recent years it has found 72% for Aus, 73.5% for Aman, and 98.4% for Boro season. As a result, the yield of the Aus, Aman, and Boro seasons has been found increasing growth for most of the regions. We have identified different cluster regions in different seasons, indicating high dissimilarities among the rice production regions in Bangladesh. The region-wise actionable plan should be taken to rapidly adopt new varieties, management technologies and extension activities in lower contributor regions to improve productivity. Cluster-wise, policy strategies should be implemented for top and less contributor regions to ensure rice security of Bangladesh.

Predictors of Global Non-Motor Symptoms Burden Progression in Parkinson’s Disease. Results from the COPPADIS Cohort at 2-Year Follow-Up

Background and Objective: Non-motor symptoms (NMS) progress in different ways between Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients. The aim of the present study was to (1) analyze the change in global NMS burden in a PD cohort after a 2-year follow-up, (2) to compare the changes with a control group, and (3) to identify predictors of global NMS burden progression in the PD group. Material and Methods: PD patients and controls, recruited from 35 centers of Spain from the COPPADIS cohort from January 2016 to November 2017, were followed-up with after 2 years. The Non-Motor Symptoms Scale (NMSS) was administered at baseline (V0) and at 24 months ± 1 month (V2). Linear regression models were used for determining predictive factors of global NMS burden progression (NMSS total score change from V0 to V2 as dependent variable). Results: After the 2-year follow-up, the mean NMS burden (NMSS total score) significantly increased in PD patients by 18.8% (from 45.08 ± 37.62 to 53.55 ± 42.28; p < 0.0001; N = 501; 60.2% males, mean age 62.59 ± 8.91) compared to no change observed in controls (from 14.74 ± 18.72 to 14.65 ± 21.82; p = 0.428; N = 122; 49.5% males, mean age 60.99 ± 8.32) (p < 0.0001). NMSS total score at baseline (β = −0.52), change from V0 to V2 in PDSS (Parkinson’s Disease Sleep Scale) (β = −0.34), and change from V0 to V2 in NPI (Neuropsychiatric Inventory) (β = 0.25) provided the highest contributions to the model (adjusted R-squared 0.41; Durbin-Watson test = 1.865). Conclusions: Global NMS burden demonstrates short-term progression in PD patients but not in controls and identifies worsening sleep problems and neuropsychiatric symptoms as significant independent predictors of this NMS progression.

Child mortality for avoidable causes in Rondônia: temporal series study, 2008-2018

ABSTRACT Objective To investigate the trend of infant mortality from preventable causes in children under one year of age in Rondônia from 2008 to 2018. Method Epidemiological study of time series with data from the Mortality and Live Birth Information Systems, driven by STATA® version 11.0, trend measured by Prais-Winsten linear regression and autocorrelation with Durbin and Watson test. Results The infant mortality rate was 14.57 deaths / 1,000 live births, 9.14 / 1,000 due to preventable causes. Deaths decreased by 2.88% annually (95% CI: - 4.67; -1.06). However, causes that can be reduced by running immunization actions, to women during pregnancy and fetal and non-childbirth growth, have stable rates. Deaths from preventable causes in the late neonatal period were declining (-11.69%; 95% CI -19.56; -3.05). Conclusion Managers need to qualify maternal and child care, considering the performance of the team of professionals in assisting the pregnant-puerperal cycle as well as improving the quality of infant mortality records in the region.

Features of the recovery of entrepreneurial activity in Russia in the context of sustainable economic development

The author considers the restoration of entrepreneurial activity in the Russian economy as a factor of sustainable development. We consider data from August 2020 to August 2021 on the number of small and medium-sized enterprises and the number of their employees. Methods of correlation analysis, construction of regression equations, Durbin – Watson test, Goldfeld – Quantum test for heteroscedasticity were used. The number of small and medium-sized enterprises in Russia has recovered to the level of August 2020, but this is explained by the regional peculiarities of entrepreneurial activity and the lifting of the moratorium on bankruptcy. Among small and medium-sized enterprises, there were many “zombie companies” that were not officially liquidated until June-July 2021. This also explains the lack of correlation between the number of small and medium-sized enterprises and the average number of employees. The number of personnel in small business is monotonously decreasing; it does not fulfill its function of creating jobs. In addition, in most federal districts of Russia, the number of small and medium-sized enterprises has decreased in absolute terms; almost all of the growth is concentrated in the Moscow agglomeration (Moscow and the Moscow region). In most federal districts, entrepreneurial activity is below the pre-crisis level. This is explained not only by restrictions and bans on the operation of small and medium-sized enterprises during the pandemic, but also by the economic situation in Russia, and a decrease in real incomes of the population. There is no correlation between entrepreneurial activity and inflation indices, but this may also be a consequence of accounting for non-performing firms.

Weak form market efficiency: A case study of Asia-Pacific markets

This study aims to test the weak form market efficiency for five developed markets, nine emerging markets and three frontier markets in the Asia-Pacific region. The tools applied in the test of this form of market efficiency are serial correlation test, runs test and unit root test. The analysis is performed by using logarithm return for the period of 2008 to 2018. For all markets in our research, the results strongly reject the weak form efficiency when the unit root tests are carried out, while the results from the Durbin-Watson test are in complete contrast. However, in the runs test and variance ratio test, the results provide mixed evidences of weak form efficiency of the markets

Pengaruh Jumlah Industri dan Tenaga Kerja Terhadap Nilai Produksi Industri Formal Kecil

The purpose of this study to analyze the effect of the number of industries and labor on the value of production in small industries in Lamongan Regency using the Durbin-Watson test. The Durbin-Watson test is an autocorrelation test that assesses the presence of autocorrelation in residuals. Data taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics of Lamongan Regency. Furthermore, it was analyzed using SPSS assistance. Based on the results of the analysis, it is known that there is no autocorrelation between the number of industries and workers on the value of production in small industries in Lamongan Regency.

How Valid are the Reported Cases of People Infected with Covid-19 in the World?

The goal of this paper is to analyze the registered cases of people who have been infected with Covid-19 registered from throughout the world, using a digital forensic analysis technique that is based on Benford's Law. Twenty-three countries were randomly chosen for this analysis: China, India, Germany, Brazil, Venezuela, Netherlands, Italy, Colombia, Russia, Norway, South Africa, Portugal, Singapore, United Kingdom, Chile, Ecuador, Egypt, Denmark, Ireland, France, Belgium, Australia and Croatia.. We calculate on the p-values based on Pearson χ2 and Mantissa Arc Test according to the results obtained with the first digit. If any country fails these two tests, a third proof will be carried out based on the Freedman-Watson test. The results indicated that results from Italy, Portugal, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Denmark, Belgium and Chile are suspicions of data manipulation because the numbers fail the Benford’s Law according to the results obtained until April 30, 2020. However, it is necessary to carry out further studies in these countries in order to ensure that they countries manipulate or altered the information.

Power Comparisons of Five Most Commonly Used Autocorrelation Tests

In regression analysis, autocorrelation of the error terms violates the ordinary least squares assumption that the error terms are uncorrelated. The consequence is that the estimates of coefficients and their standard errors will be wrong if the autocorrelation is ignored. There are many tests for autocorrelation, we want to know which test is more powerful. We use Monte Carlo methods to compare the power of five most commonly used tests for autocorrlation, namely Durbin-Watson, Breusch-Godfrey, Box–Pierce, Ljung Box, and Runs tests in two different linear regression models. The results indicate the Durbin-Watson test performs better in the regression model without lagged dependent variable, although the advantage over the other tests reduce with increasing autocorrelation and sample sizes. For the model with lagged dependent variable, the Breusch-Godfrey test is generally superior to the other tests.R code for Power Comparison of the Five Autocorrelation Tests is provided.