A Dynamic Agent-Based Model of Corruption

Author(s):  
R. Chakrabarti

The author builds an agent-based model wherein the societal corruption level is derived from individual corruption levels optimally chosen by heterogeneous agents with different risk aversion and human capital. The societal corruption level, in turn, affects the risk-return profile of corruption for the individual agents. Simulating a multi-generational economy with heterogeneous agents, the author shows that there are locally stable equilibrium corruption levels with certain socio-economic determinants. However, there are situations when corruption can rise until it stifles all economic activity. “You live in a society where everybody steals. Do you choose to steal? The probability that you will be caught is low ... and, even if you are caught, the chances of your being punished severely for a crime so common are low. Therefore you too steal. By contrast, if you live in a society where theft is rare, the chances of your being caught and punished are high, so you choose not to steal.” (Mauro, 1998, p. 12)

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Ermanno Catullo ◽  
Federico Giri ◽  
Mauro Gallegati

The paper presents an agent-based model reproducing a stylized credit network that evolves endogenously through the individual choices of firms and banks. We introduce in this framework a financial stability authority in order to test the effects of different prudential policy measures designed to improve the resilience of the economic system. Simulations show that a combination of micro- and macroprudential policies reduces systemic risk but at the cost of increasing banks’ capital volatility. Moreover, the agent-based methodology allows us to implement an alternative meso regulatory framework that takes into consideration the connections between firms and banks. This policy targets only the more connected banks, increasing their capital requirement in order to reduce the diffusion of local shocks. Our results support the idea that the mesoprudential policy is able to reduce systemic risk without affecting the stability of banks’ capital structure.


2003 ◽  
Vol 06 (03) ◽  
pp. 331-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
YUTAKA I. LEON SUEMATSU ◽  
KEIKI TAKADAMA ◽  
NORBERTO E. NAWA ◽  
KATSUNORI SHIMOHARA ◽  
OSAMU KATAI

Agent-based models (ABMs) have been attracting the attention of researchers in the social sciences, becoming a prominent paradigm in the study of complex social systems. Although a great number of models have been proposed for studying a variety of social phenomena, no general agent design methodology is available. Moreover, it is difficult to validate the accuracy of these models. For this reason, we believe that some guidelines for ABMs design must be devised; therefore, this paper is a first attempt to analyze the levels of ABMs, identify and classify several aspects that should be considered when designing ABMs. Through our analysis, the following implications have been found: (1) there are two levels in designing ABMs: the individual level, related to the design of the agents' internal structure, and the collective level, which concerns the design of the agent society or macro-dynamics of the model; and (2) the mechanisms of these levels strongly affect the outcomes of the models.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junjiang Li ◽  
Philippe J. Giabbanelli

AbstractThere is a range of public health tools and interventions to address the global pandemic of COVID-19. Although it is essential for public health efforts to comprehensively identify which interventions have the largest impact on preventing new cases, most of the modeling studies that support such decision-making efforts have only considered a very small set of interventions. In addition, previous studies predominantly considered interventions as independent or examined a single scenario in which every possible intervention was applied. Reality has been more nuanced, as a subset of all possible interventions may be in effect for a given time period, in a given place. In this paper, we use cloud-based simulations and a previously published Agent-Based Model of COVID-19 (Covasim) to measure the individual and interacting contribution of interventions on reducing new infections in the US over 6 months. Simulated interventions include face masks, working remotely, stay-at-home orders, testing, contact tracing, and quarantining. Through a factorial design of experiments, we find that mask wearing together with transitioning to remote work/schooling has the largest impact. Having sufficient capacity to immediately and effectively perform contact tracing has a smaller contribution, primarily via interacting effects.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Schweighofer ◽  
David Garcia ◽  
Frank Schweitzer

It is known that individual opinions on different policy issues often align to a dominant ideological dimension (e.g. ``left'' vs. ``right'') and become increasingly polarized. We provide an agent-based model that reproduces these two stylized facts as emergent properties of an opinion dynamics in a multi-dimensional space of continuous opinions. The mechanisms for the change of agents' opinions in this multi-dimensional space are derived from cognitive dissonance theory and structural balance theory. We test assumptions from proximity voting and from directional voting regarding their ability to reproduce the expected emerging properties. We further study how the emotional involvement of agents, i.e. their individual resistance to change opinions, impacts the dynamics. We identify two regimes for the global and the individual alignment of opinions. If the affective involvement is high and shows a large variance across agents, this fosters the emergence of a dominant ideological dimension. Agents align their opinions along this dimension in opposite directions, i.e. create a state of polarization.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1258
Author(s):  
Luis Oliva-Felipe ◽  
Marta Verdaguer ◽  
Manel Poch ◽  
Javier Vázquez-Salceda ◽  
Ulises Cortés

Water managers have to deal with complex problems due to the intertwined characteristics of processes, in particular those that occur in wastewater systems. Existing modelling approaches are usually centred in the physical, chemical and biological aspects of the individual processes, excluding the social and organisational context that will generate the global behaviour. These also include the responsibilities and decision making of different actors in the system. This paper proposes an agent-based model with the novelty to integrate the social and organisational structure of the wastewater system from which emerges the global behaviour of the system. The modelling process allows considering the legal regulations and the technical limits that would drive the decision making. The instantiation of the model, implementing a small system, evidenced the usefulness of this approach to manage the complexity of wastewater systems and its possible contribution to prevent environmental problems.


Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Siyuan Ma ◽  
Hongzhong Zhang

Social media chat groups, such as WeChat and WhatsApp groups, are widely applied in online communication. This research has conducted two studies to examine the individual level and collective level’s opinion dynamics in those groups. The opinion dynamic is driven by two variables, people’s perceived peer support and willingness of opinion expression. The perceived peer support influences the willingness of opinion expression, and the willingness influences the dynamics of real opinion-expression. First, the quasi-experimental study recruited twenty-five participants as the observation group and found that decreasing perceived peer support would significantly increase individuals’ expression willingness to protect his/her opinion. To generalize the individual level findings to a collective level, the second study treated the social media chat groups as an undirected fully-connected social network and simulated people’s opinion expression dynamics with an agent-based model. The simulation indicated that (1) with the help of increased willingness of opinion expression, the minority opinion supporters as a collective did not fall silent but continue to express themselves and (2) increasing willingness of opinion expression would maintain the existence of minority opinion but could not help the minority reverse to the majority.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah Gumble ◽  
Sarah Wise

New forms of mobility reshape the transportation landscape, changing movement for both their users and others in the environment. The transition period during which novel forms of travel are being explored can be a challenging time while the use of spaces must be renegotiated. E-scooters, which have recently been more widely introduced to the UK, are experiencing such a moment as riders, planners, and other users of the streetscape are determining what role this technology will play in communities. The data gaps surrounding e-scooters can make this an especially difficult question for planners because of the cost of gathering relevant observational data, much of which is held under private company ownership. In light of this, this work presents an agent-based model developed to examine the integration of e-scooters into existing streetscapes. Agent-based models explore phenomena through focusing on individual behaviour and rules which in turn gives rise to emergent large scale patterns. These patterns can be dissected and interrogated with a variety of tools, allowing us to tease out individual as well as group experiences of different scenarios. An agent-based approach allows us to capture the individual behaviours of e-scooter users and those of cyclists, drivers of variously sized vehicles, pedestrians, and others present in the environment. By focusing on the interactions of these various street users, we can explore how different approaches to e-scooter integration may fare relative to varying street configurations. Their decision frameworks are informed by observational studies of e-scooter users in order to augment the available data. We discuss the current state of understanding e-scooter behaviour and the potential modelling applications, present an initial behavioural framework of e-scooter decision making and inter-modal interactions, and highlight some preliminary results examining the differences between e-scooters operating on roads versus shared segregated cycle lanes. The work concludes with a case study comparing two modelled scenarios, one including a segregated cycle lane and one without. Drawing upon metrics such as the route segmentation/ cut-off rate and average travel comfort, we can more precisely explore how new forms of mobility will influence different kinds of street users in order to better understand the trade-offs associated with different paths forward.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan E. Snellman ◽  
Rafael A. Barrio ◽  
Kimmo K. Kaski ◽  
Maarit J. Käpylä

Abstract In this study we present a dynamical agent-based model to investigate the interplay between the socio-economy of and SEIRS-type epidemic spreading over a geographical area, divided to smaller area districts and further to smallest area cells. The model treats the populations of cells and authorities of districts as agents, such that the former can reduce their economic activity and the latter can recommend economic activity reduction both with the overall goal to slow down the epidemic spreading. The agents make decisions with the aim of attaining as high social positions as possible relative to other agents. They evaluate their social positions based on the local and regional infection rates, compliance to the authorities’ regulations, regional drops in economic activity, and the efforts they make to mitigate the spread of epidemic. We find that the willingness of populations to comply with authorities’ recommendations has the most drastic effect to the spreading of epidemic: periodic waves spread almost unimpeded in non-compliant populations, while in compliant ones the spread is minimal with a chaotic spreading pattern and significantly lower infection rates. Health and economic concerns of agents turned out to have lesser roles, the former increasing their efforts and the latter decreasing them.


Author(s):  
Silvia Leoni

AbstractAlthough the low level of tuition fees and the absence of other access barriers, Italy is characterized by low educational attainments at the university level. This work models the choice of young Italians to attend university or leave education and enter the labor market, by making use of an agent-based model that reproduces the Italian higher education and policy system. The aim is to analyze the determinants behind university enrollment decisions possibly causing the low level of attainment and explore three alternative scenarios that propose the expansion of financial support and the increase in the average income gap between skilled and unskilled individuals. The model implies that the individual preference to enroll at university depends upon (i) economic motivations, represented by the expectations on future income, which are formed through interaction within individuals’ social network; (ii) influence from peers; (iii) effort of obtaining a university degree. Results show that the model can reproduce observable features of the Italian system, and highlights low income levels and the following full resort to regional scholarships. Experimented scenarios show that policies expanding financial support to education are ineffective, while an increase in the gap between average income of skilled and unskilled workers leads to an increase in enrollment in university, signaling that labor market policies may be more effective than educational policies in raising the number of students in higher education.


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