Where There's a Will There's a Way

2022 ◽  
pp. 271-295
Author(s):  
Gordon A. Crews ◽  
Garrison Allen Crews ◽  
Samantha Leigh Crews

“Where there's a will there's a way” is a proverb that simply means if someone is determined to do something, he or she will find a way to accomplish it regardless of obstacles. Unfortunately, this is very true for those who wish to commit acts of violence wish to commit acts of violence. The purpose of this chapter is to examine the possible impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on incidents of mass and multiple victim violence in the US. More specifically, what impact did efforts such as stay-at-home/shelter-in-place orders, telecommuting options for workers, school closures, cancellation of large public events, and the suspension of non-essential travel have upon the extent and characteristics of mass violence.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phebo Wibbens ◽  
Wesley Wu-Yi Koo ◽  
Anita M. McGahan

AbstractThis paper reports the results of a Bayesian analysis on large-scale empirical data to assess the effectiveness of eleven types of COVID-control policies that have been implemented at various levels of intensity in 40 countries and U.S. states since the onset of the pandemic. The analysis estimates the marginal impact of each type and level of policy as implemented in concert with other policies. The purpose is to provide policymakers and the general public with an estimate of the relative effectiveness of various COVID-control strategies. We find that a set of widely implemented core policies reduces the spread of virus but not by enough to contain the pandemic except in a few highly compliant jurisdictions. The core policies include the cancellation of public events, restriction of gatherings to fewer than 100 people, recommendation to stay at home, recommended restrictions on internal movement, implementation of a partial international travel ban, and coordination of information campaigns. For the median jurisdiction, these policies reduce growth rate in new infections from an estimated 270% per week to approximately 49% per week, but this impact is insufficient to prevent eventual transmission throughout the population because containment occurs only when a jurisdiction reduces growth in COVID infection to below zero. Most jurisdictions must also implement additional policies, each of which has the potential to reduce weekly COVID growth rate by 10 percentage points or more. The slate of these additional high-impact policies includes targeted or full workplace closings for all but essential workers, stay-at-home requirements, and targeted school closures.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. e0244177
Author(s):  
Phebo D. Wibbens ◽  
Wesley Wu-Yi Koo ◽  
Anita M. McGahan

This paper reports the results of a Bayesian analysis on large-scale empirical data to assess the effectiveness of eleven types of COVID-control policies that have been implemented at various levels of intensity in 40 countries and U.S. states since the onset of the pandemic. The analysis estimates the marginal impact of each type and level of policy as implemented in concert with other policies. The purpose is to provide policymakers and the general public with an estimate of the relative effectiveness of various COVID-control strategies. We find that a set of widely implemented core policies reduces the spread of virus but not by enough to contain the pandemic except in a few highly compliant jurisdictions. The core policies include the cancellation of public events, restriction of gatherings to fewer than 100 people, recommendation to stay at home, recommended restrictions on internal movement, implementation of a partial international travel ban, and coordination of information campaigns. For the median jurisdiction, these policies reduce growth rate in new infections from an estimated 270% per week to approximately 49% per week, but this impact is insufficient to prevent eventual transmission throughout the population because containment occurs only when a jurisdiction reduces growth in COVID infection to below zero. Most jurisdictions must also implement additional policies, each of which has the potential to reduce weekly COVID growth rate by 10 percentage points or more. The slate of these additional high-impact policies includes targeted or full workplace closings for all but essential workers, stay-at-home requirements, and targeted school closures.


Author(s):  
Victor Chernozhukov ◽  
Hiroyuki Kasahara ◽  
Paul Schrimpf

AbstractThis paper evaluates the dynamic impact of various policies adopted by US states on the growth rates of confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths as well as social distancing behavior measured by Google Mobility Reports, where we take into consideration people’s voluntarily behavioral response to new information of transmission risks. Our analysis finds that both policies and information on transmission risks are important determinants of Covid-19 cases and deaths and shows that a change in policies explains a large fraction of observed changes in social distancing behavior. Our counterfactual experiments suggest that nationally mandating face masks for employees on April 1st could have reduced the growth rate of cases and deaths by more than 10 percentage points in late April, and could have led to as much as 17 to 55 percent less deaths nationally by the end of May, which roughly translates into 17 to 55 thousand saved lives. Our estimates imply that removing non-essential business closures (while maintaining school closures, restrictions on movie theaters and restaurants) could have led to -20 to 60 percent more cases and deaths by the end of May. We also find that, without stay-at-home orders, cases would have been larger by 25 to 170 percent, which implies that 0.5 to 3.4 million more Americans could have been infected if stay-at-home orders had not been implemented. Finally, not having implemented any policies could have led to at least a 7 fold increase with an uninformative upper bound in cases (and deaths) by the end of May in the US, with considerable uncertainty over the effects of school closures, which had little cross-sectional variation.


Author(s):  
Yun Li ◽  
Moming Li ◽  
Megan Rice ◽  
Haoyuan Zhang ◽  
Dexuan Sha ◽  
...  

Social distancing policies have been regarded as effective in containing the rapid spread of COVID-19. However, there is a limited understanding of policy effectiveness from a spatiotemporal perspective. This study integrates geographical, demographical, and other key factors into a regression-based event study framework, to assess the effectiveness of seven major policies on human mobility and COVID-19 case growth rates, with a spatiotemporal emphasis. Our results demonstrate that stay-at-home orders, workplace closures, and public information campaigns were effective in decreasing the confirmed case growth rate. For stay-at-home orders and workplace closures, these changes were associated with significant decreases (p < 0.05) in mobility. Public information campaigns did not see these same mobility trends, but the growth rate still decreased significantly in all analysis periods (p < 0.01). Stay-at-home orders and international/national travel controls had limited mitigation effects on the death case growth rate (p < 0.1). The relationships between policies, mobility, and epidemiological metrics allowed us to evaluate the effectiveness of each policy and gave us insight into the spatiotemporal patterns and mechanisms by which these measures work. Our analysis will provide policymakers with better knowledge regarding the effectiveness of measures in space–time disaggregation.


2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Velázquez

This study examines the beliefs held by a group of adult Spanish-English bilinguals from El Paso, Texas regarding the vitality of Spanish in their community and the ways in which their own experience of being bilingual on the US-Mexico border has influenced their perceptions of the benefits and costs of fostering Spanish development in their children. Results show that parents’ positive attitudes toward Spanish did not translate into the investment of time and resources to foster Spanish development in their children nor, ultimately, into the use of Spanish by their children. Households where the mother perceived herself as having an active role in her children’s linguistic development and where she perceived both Spanish and a bilingual/biethnic identity as desirable for her children’s future were also households where children were expected to speak Spanish at home and where more opportunities for linguistic development were present. The author argues that these beliefs must be understood as a consequence of the underlying tensions present in the community, where intense linguistic and interethnic contact takes place every day.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bujin Bekbulat ◽  
Joshua S. Apte ◽  
Dylan B Millet ◽  
Allen Robinson ◽  
Kelley C. Wells ◽  
...  

<p>Analysis of a large national dataset of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone air pollution from the US Environmental Protection Agency indicate opposing differences in average concentrations during the covid response period, relative to expected levels. These are the two most important pollutants in terms of public health impacts and regulatory non-attainment in the US. Post-covid response, average PM2.5 levels are slightly higher (~5%) than expected; average ozone levels are slightly lower (~5%). The size of post-response ozone anomaly has decreased with time and by week 6 after the first stay-at-home order was enacted (April 29- May 5, 2020), ozone levels were higher than expected. In addition, no individual US state had lower-than-expected PM2.5 and ozone for all weeks post- covid response. Two non-covid factors, meteorology and regional transport, do not fully explain observed trends. These findings are unexpected given the large reduction in many household’s activities associated with “stay at home” and other covid responses. We hypothesize that this result partly arises from the fact that ozone and the majority of PM2.5 are secondary pollutants formed in the atmosphere from emissions from many sources (i.e., not just traffic). Preliminary analysis of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) data in a few cities reveals substantially lower-than-expected (~30%) concentrations post-covid. NO2 is a primary pollutant and is much more strongly associated with traffic than PM2.5 or ozone. </p><p><br></p>


Blood ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 136 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 16-17
Author(s):  
Wally R Smith ◽  
Benjamin Jaworowski ◽  
Shirley Johnson ◽  
Thokozeni Lipato ◽  
Daniel M Sop

Background Even before the US upswing of the current COVID pandemic, the number of sickle cell disease (SCD) patients coming to hospitals and EDs appeared to fall drastically. This happened despite SCD patients having often been heavy utilizers of the ED and hospital for their iconic vaso-occlusive crises (VOC). Though ambulatory SCD clinics quick converted largely to telehealth in order to comply with stay-at-home orders designed to suppress person-to-person transmission, some SCD patients appeared to avoid care, delay care, or refuse doctors' invitations for care. Presumably patients did so out of COVID fears, but this has not been confirmed in the literature. Further, whether these patients had COVID symptoms but stayed at home has not been studied. As part of quality improvement (QI) to conduct COVID surveillance in an adult sickle cell program, we sought to explain and predict SCD health care utilization patterns we were observing, as well as to determine urgent physical and mental health needs of patients who appeared to be avoiding care. Methods Fifteen staff in the Adult Sickle Cell Medical Home at Virginia Commonwealth University, a large urban academic medical center, conducted a telephone survey ("wellness check"was used when we talked to patients) of all known adults with SCD over 19 days in 2020. A staff member confirmed the patient had SCD, asked permission to proceed, then asked about symptoms consistent with COVID-19. At the end of the telephone survey, respondents wer invited to complete an email survey of sickle cell and COVID-19 utilization attitudes (19-33 items, depending on the response pattern, either drawn from the National Health Interview Survey, from the Adult Sickle Cell Quality of Life Measurement quality of care survey, or drafted by the authors), the Sickle Cell Stress Survey-Adult (SCSS-A, a 10-item previously validated survey), and anxiety and depression (PHQ9 of the PRIME-MD). Results Of 622 adults approached by phone call, 353 responded to the following yes/no screening questions regarding the prior 14 days: fever over 100 F 0/353 (0.00%); cough 3/353(0.01%); difficulty breathing 0/353(0.00%); unexplained shortness of breath 2/353(0.01%); sore throat 2/353 (0.01%); unexplained muscle soreness 2/353(0.01%);contact with anyone who tested positive for COVID-19 2/353(0.01%); testing for COVID 19 6/353(0.02%). For QI purposes, we set a threshold of three or more COVID-associated symptoms or the presence of fever as criteria requiring intense telephone or in-person staff monitoring for the following week. Only three patients met criteria. A total of 219/353 had email surveys sent. Of 63 patients (28.8%) who returned email surveys by June 10, 2020, 35.9% had already managed a "pain attack" at home 4 or more times in the prior 12 months, and 45.5% of these said their bad ER experiences were very or somewhat important in that decision. In the prior 14 days, although 30/64 reported a crisis for at least one day, only 4/64 had visited the Emergency Department for pain. On a 0-10 scale, 21/61 patients endorsed "0" for worry that they would be COVID-infected by going for medical care (weighted mean 3.9), but 18/59 endorsed "10" for worry they were more at risk of COVID because of SCD (weighted mean 6.31), and 22/60 endorsed "10" for worry they would fare worse than others if COVID infected (weighted mean 6.97). Many patients forwent "needed" care (16/62) or delayed "needed" care by at least a day (36/61). Eleven patients met criteria for moderately severe to severe depression on the PHQ-9, and 28/63 somewhat or strongly agreed with the statement "death is always on the back of my mind" on the SCSS-A. Conclusions In adolescents and adults with SCD, many were already reticent to come to the ED for pain, but a significant portion reported delays or avoidance of needed care during the early stages of the US COVID pandemic, and few reported using the ED despite over half reporting at least one crisis day in 14. Patients nonetheless reported very few COVID-associated symptoms. Fears of COVID infection/susceptibility may limit visits for needed sickle cell care among adults. Acknowledgements: Mica Ferlis RN, FNP, Caitlin McManus, RN, FNP, Emily Sushko, RN, FNP, Justin West, RN, Kate Osborne, RN, Stefani Vaughan-Sams, Marla Brannon, BS, Nakeiya Williams, BS Disclosures Smith: GlycoMimetics, Inc.: Consultancy; Emmaeus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.: Consultancy; Novartis, Inc.: Consultancy, Other: Investigator, Research Funding; Global Blood Therapeutics, Inc.: Consultancy, Research Funding; Shire, Inc.: Other: Investigator, Research Funding; NHLBI: Research Funding; Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute: Other: Investigator, Research Funding; Health Resources and Services Administration: Other: Investigator, Research Funding; Incyte: Other: Investigator; Pfizer: Consultancy; Ironwood: Consultancy; Novo Nordisk: Consultancy; Imara: Research Funding; Shire: Research Funding.


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