scholarly journals The Impact of Policy Measures on Human Mobility, COVID-19 Cases, and Mortality in the US: A Spatiotemporal Perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 996
Author(s):  
Yun Li ◽  
Moming Li ◽  
Megan Rice ◽  
Haoyuan Zhang ◽  
Dexuan Sha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

Social distancing policies have been regarded as effective in containing the rapid spread of COVID-19. However, there is a limited understanding of policy effectiveness from a spatiotemporal perspective. This study integrates geographical, demographical, and other key factors into a regression-based event study framework, to assess the effectiveness of seven major policies on human mobility and COVID-19 case growth rates, with a spatiotemporal emphasis. Our results demonstrate that stay-at-home orders, workplace closures, and public information campaigns were effective in decreasing the confirmed case growth rate. For stay-at-home orders and workplace closures, these changes were associated with significant decreases (p < 0.05) in mobility. Public information campaigns did not see these same mobility trends, but the growth rate still decreased significantly in all analysis periods (p < 0.01). Stay-at-home orders and international/national travel controls had limited mitigation effects on the death case growth rate (p < 0.1). The relationships between policies, mobility, and epidemiological metrics allowed us to evaluate the effectiveness of each policy and gave us insight into the spatiotemporal patterns and mechanisms by which these measures work. Our analysis will provide policymakers with better knowledge regarding the effectiveness of measures in space–time disaggregation.

scholarly journals Global Assessment of the Relationship between Government Response Measures and COVID-19 Deaths

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Hale ◽  
Andrew J Hale ◽  
Beatriz Kira ◽  
Anna Petherick ◽  
Toby Phillips ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Global Assessment ◽  
Response Times ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
Day Range ◽  
The Impact

Objective: To provide an early global assessment of the impact of government stringency measures on the rate of growth in deaths from COVID-19. We hypothesized that the overall stringency of a government's interventions and the speed of implementation would affect the growth and level of deaths related to COVID-19 in that country. Design: Observational study based on an original database of global governmental responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Daily data was collected on a range of containment and closure policies for 170 countries from January 1, 2020 until May 27, 2020 by a team of researchers at Oxford University, UK. These data were combined into an aggregate stringency index (SI) score for each country on each day (range: 0-100). Regression was used to show correlations between the speed and strength of government stringency and deaths related to COVID-19 with a number of controls for time and country-specific demographic, health system, and economic characteristics. Interventions: Nine non-pharmaceutical interventions such as school and work closures, restrictions on international and domestic travel, public gathering bans, public information campaigns, as well as testing and contact tracing policies. Main outcomes measures: The primary outcome was deaths related to COVID-19, measured both in terms of maximum daily deaths and growth rate of daily deaths. Results: For each day of delay to reach an SI 40, the average daily growth rate in deaths was 0.087 percentage points higher (0.056 to 0.118, P<0.001). In turn, each additional point on the SI was associated with a 0.080 percentage point lower average daily growth rate (-0.121 to -0.039, P<.001). These daily differences in growth rates lead to large cumulative differences in total deaths. For example, a week delay in enacting policy measures to SI 40 would lead to 1.7 times as many deaths overall. Conclusions: A lower degree of government stringency and slower response times were associated with more deaths from COVID-19. These findings highlight the importance of non-pharmaceutical responses to COVID-19 as more robust testing, treatment, and vaccination measures are developed.

scholarly journals Communication for health and AIDS: An educative-entertaining approach

Comunicar ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 13 (26) ◽  
pp. 35-42
Author(s):  
Juan-José Igartua-Perosanz
Keyword(s):  
Aids Prevention ◽  
Parasocial Interaction ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Entertainment Education ◽  
Educational Content ◽  
Emotional Involvement ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Impact

This paper reviews the current state of the impact of entertainment-education contributions for AIDS prevention. Traditional information campaigns are being replaced by interventions based on narrative formats which merge entertainment with an educational content. The success of such interventions depends on the ability of the narrative formats to stimulate parasocial interaction and emotional involvement. It is also stated that one of the key factors to success is to promote discussion. El presente trabajo revisa la evidencia actual sobre el impacto de las intervenciones de educación-entretenimiento para la prevención del SIDA. Las clásicas campañas en clave publicitaria están dejando paso a intervenciones basadas en formatos narrativos que fusionan la educación con el entretenimiento. El éxito de tales intervenciones se debe a la capacidad de los formatos narrativos para estimular la interacción parasocial y la implicación emocional. También se constata que una de las claves del éxito es la estimulación de la discusión.

scholarly journals Evaluating the impact of stay-at-home orders on the time to reach the peak burden of Covid-19 cases and deaths: does timing matter?

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Medline ◽  
Lamar Hayes ◽  
Katia Valdez ◽  
Ami Hayashi ◽  
Farnoosh Vahedi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Impact ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Us States ◽  
Peak Number ◽  
Time To Peak ◽  
The Us ◽  
Prolonged Duration ◽  
Case Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

Abstract Background The economic, psychological, and social impact of pandemics and social distancing measures prompt the urgent need to determine the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), especially those considered most stringent such as stay-at-home and self-isolation mandates. This study focuses specifically on the impact of stay-at-home orders, both nationally and internationally, on the control of COVID-19. Methods We conducted an observational analysis from April to May 2020 and included both countries and US states with known stay-at-home orders. Our primary exposure was the time between the date of the first reported case of COVID-19 to an implemented stay-at-home mandate for each region. Our primary outcomes were the time from the first reported case to the highest number of daily cases and daily deaths. We conducted linear regression analyses, controlling for the case rate of the outbreak in each respective region. Results For countries and US states, a longer period of time between the first reported case and stay-at-home mandates was associated with a longer time to reach both the peak daily case and death counts. The largest effect was among regions classified as the latest 10% to implement a mandate, which in the US, predicted an extra 35.3 days (95% CI: 18.2, 52.5) to the peak number of cases, and 38.3 days (95% CI: 23.6, 53.0) to the peak number of deaths. Conclusions Our study supports the association between the timing of stay-at-home orders and the time to peak case and death counts for both countries and US states. Regions in which mandates were implemented late experienced a prolonged duration to reaching both peak daily case and death counts.

The prospects of Russian economic growth recovery (Proceedings of the roundtable discussion at the XXI April international academic conference on economic and social development)

2020 ◽  
pp. 5-50
Author(s):  
N. A. Akindinova ◽  
M. P. Dabrowski ◽  
A. A. Shirov ◽  
D. R. Belousov ◽  
I. B. Voskoboynikov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Social Development ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Roundtable Discussion ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Academic Conference ◽  
Policy Measures

The issues to be discussed at the panel included: can past experience of economy recovery following crises of 1998 and 2008 be helpful at present; what sectors were driving growth of the Russian economy in the last decade, and are they able to perform this role in the future; what growth rate is feasible in 2021; what amendments to the national projects aimed at boosting growth are likely. In addition to that the panel participants specified key factors affecting productivity and output trends in Russia, suggested ways to support economy in the course of “coronacrisis”, and pointed out to economic policy measures that could accelerate economic growth.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Policy Differences across US States: Shutdowns, Reopening, and Mask Mandates

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (24) ◽  
pp. 9520
Author(s):  
Xue Zhang ◽  
Mildred E. Warner
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Health Insurance ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
State Level ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Access To Health ◽  
Short Period ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

This work used event study to examine the impact of three policies (shutdowns, reopening, and mask mandates) on changes in the daily COVID-19 infection growth rate at the state level in the US (February through August 2020). The results show the importance of early intervention: shutdowns and mask mandates reduced the COVID-19 infection growth rate immediately after being imposed statewide. Over the longer term, mask mandates had a larger effect on flattening the curve than shutdowns. The increase in the daily infection growth rate pushed state governments to shut down, but reopening led to significant increases in new cases 21 days afterward. The results suggest a dynamic social distancing approach: a shutdown for a short period followed by reopening, combined with universal mask wearing. We also found that the COVID-19 growth rate increased in states with higher percentages of essential workers (during reopening) and higher percentages of minorities (during the mask mandate period). Health insurance access for low-income workers (via Medicaid expansion) helped to reduce COVID-19 cases in the reopening model. The implications for public health show the importance of access to health insurance and mask mandates to protect low-income essential workers, but minority groups still face a higher risk of infection during the pandemic.

scholarly journals US-China trade war: Impact on chemical exporting firms from India to US

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-84
Author(s):  
Areej Aftab Siddiqui ◽  
Parul Singh
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Patterns ◽  
Exporting Firms ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

With the onset of the US-China trade war in July 2018, the trade patterns between China, the US, and India have undergone a tremendous change. The number of products in which China had a competitive advantage in terms of exports to the US has declined in the last 9 months. A number of developing countries may be benefitted from the ongoing tariff war between the US and China, like Vietnam, Brazil, India, and Korea. In the present study, an attempt has been made to analyse the impact of the US-China trade war on exports of India to the US. The sector which has been selected is the chemical sector comprising of organic and inorganic chemicals as chemicals are one of the top-exported products from India to the US. To analyse the impact, the difference-in-differences technique of regression has been applied. The results indicate that after July 2018, i.e., the commencement of the US-China trade war, the impact on firms exporting chemicals from India to the US has been significant and firms in India may be a potential source for chemicals for the US provided the right policy measures are exercised in India. The results indicate that the trade war between the US and China has had a positive impact on the chemical exports from India to the US. The chemical exports from India to the US have increased post-July 2018, though not at a steep rate. This indicates that India has the potential to export chemicals to the US

scholarly journals Social-distancing Fatigue: Evidence from Real-time Crowd-sourced Traffic Data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jenni A. Shearston ◽  
Micaela E. Martinez ◽  
Yanelli Nunez ◽  
Markus Hilpert
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Traffic Congestion ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
School Closure ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

ABSTRACTIntroductionTo mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent overwhelming the healthcare system, social-distancing policies such as school closure, stay-at-home orders, and indoor dining closure have been utilized worldwide. These policies function by reducing the rate of close contact within populations and results in decreased human mobility. Adherence to social distancing can substantially reduce disease spread. Thus, quantifying human mobility and social-distancing compliance, especially at high temporal resolution, can provide great insight into the impact of social distancing policies.MethodsWe used the movement of individuals around New York City (NYC), measured via traffic levels, as a proxy for human mobility and the impact of social-distancing policies (i.e., work from home policies, school closure, indoor dining closure etc.). By data mining Google traffic in real-time, and applying image processing, we derived high resolution time series of traffic in NYC. We used time series decomposition and generalized additive models to quantify changes in rush hour/non-rush hour, and weekday/weekend traffic, pre-pandemic and following the roll-out of multiple social distancing interventions.ResultsMobility decreased sharply on March 14, 2020 following declaration of the pandemic. However, levels began rebounding by approximately April 13, almost 2 months before stay-at-home orders were lifted, indicating premature increase in mobility, which we term social-distancing fatigue. We also observed large impacts on diurnal traffic congestion, such that the pre-pandemic bi-modal weekday congestion representing morning and evening rush hour was dramatically altered. By September, traffic congestion rebounded to approximately 75% of pre-pandemic levels.ConclusionUsing crowd-sourced traffic congestion data, we described changes in mobility in Manhattan, NYC, during the COVID-19 pandemic. These data can be used to inform human mobility changes during the current pandemic, in planning for responses to future pandemics, and in understanding the potential impact of large-scale traffic interventions such as congestion pricing policies.GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

scholarly journals How Vietnam is saving lives against Covid-19?

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 738-767
Author(s):  
Jonas Gomes da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Management Practices ◽  
Cultural Practices ◽  
Public Information ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
The Public ◽  
Innovative Products ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Start Ups

It complements Silva (2020b) research, which showed that among 108 well-evaluated countries, the top benchmark nations against Covid-19 are Vietnam, Taiwan, and Thailand. For example, on April 16, 2021 around 3,011,574 lives were officially lost by Covid-19, while Taiwan, Vietnam, and Thailand reported respectively only 11, 35, and 97 fatal cases (WORLDOMETERS, 2021). So, this article main aim is to investigate the Vietnam performance and the management practices used to save lives against Covid19. The research uses an online questionnaire, is descriptive with documentary and bibliographic approaches to identify management practices, including Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) adopted against a pandemic. Also the Fatality Total Index (SILVA, 2020b p. 563) was used to compare Vietnam's performance with 43 semifinalist countries. Some results are: 1) 200 NPIs were identified across the world against coronavirus; 2) Among the 44 countries, Vietnam showed the second best performance, after Taiwan; 3) among 107 respondents living in Vietnam, only 5.61% don´t believe that cultural practices are decisive for the low rate of Covid-19 death, while most (94.39%) believe in that. From the group that believe, the most decisive cultural practices were: wear a mask, wash hands, not shake hands, not hug in public and few religious assembly; 4) for 106 respondents living in Vietnam, the ten main policy measures adopted by the National Government that saved lives against the virus are: international travel control, public information campaigns, schools closures, public event cancellations, integration with mass media, restriction on internal movement, effective public-private collaboration, increase the medical and personal equipment capacity, public transport reduction and combat fake news. At the final, ten golden lessons are provided, from 340 policies, measures, programs, projects, innovative products/services identified, with the majority led by the Public Sector (73.5%), followed by Corporations (8.5%), Others (6.5%), Start ups (6.2%), and Universities (5.3%).

scholarly journals COVID-19 prevalence and predictors in United States adults during peak stay-at-home orders

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0245586
Author(s):  
Robert Morlock ◽  
Amy Morlock ◽  
Martha Downen ◽  
Sonali N. Shah
Keyword(s):  
Symptom Severity ◽  
Early Recognition ◽  
Nationwide Survey ◽  
Total Sample ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

Background Early recognition of COVID-19 cases is essential for effective public health measures aimed at isolation of individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS–COV-2). The objective of this study was to describe characteristics, self-reported symptoms, and predictors of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection in a community-based sample. Methods and findings This was a cross-sectional nationwide survey of adults in the US conducted between April 24 through May 13, 2020. The survey targeted a representative sample of approximately 5,000 respondents. The rate of COVID-19 cases and testing, most frequently reported symptoms, symptom severity, treatment received, impact of COVID-19 on mental and physical health, and factors predictive of testing positive were assessed. Most of the 5,203 participants (85.6%) reported no COVID-19-like symptoms. Of the 747 (14.5%) participants reporting COVID-19-like symptoms, 367 (49.1%) obtained a diagnostic test. Eighty-nine participants (24.3%) reported a positive COVID-19 test result, representing 1.7% of the total sample. For those testing positive, the most common symptoms were dry cough, fever, and shortness of breath/difficulty breathing. Those who tested positive were more likely to report greater symptom severity versus those who tested negative. Severe dry cough, new loss of taste or smell, trouble waking up, living with someone experiencing symptoms, recent international travel, respiratory issues, and reporting ethnicity of Black or African American were predictive of testing positive. Conclusions This study assessed the impact of COVID-19 using community-level self-reported data across the US during the peak of most stay at home’ orders. Self-reported symptoms and risk factors identified in this study are consistent with the clinical profile emerging for COVID-19. In the absence of widespread testing, this study demonstrates the utility of a representative US community-based sample to provide direct-reported symptoms and outcomes to quickly identify high-risk individuals who are likely to test positive and should consider taking greater precautions.

Implications for Growth

2019 ◽  
pp. 88-89
Author(s):  
Andrew Smithers
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Capital Stock ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The Us ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Hurdle Rate ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Trend Growth

Without policy measures to offset the negative impact of the bonus culture, investment, productivity, and growth are likely to remain depressed. Given the slow growth of the working age population, the UK’s trend growth rate will thus be 1 per cent and that of the US 0.87 per cent, unless productivity improves. An alternative method of estimating US trend growth from the value data for tangible capital stock provides a slightly better rate of 1.1 per cent per annum. The prospects for the UK and US are so poor that policy measures to stimulate growth are vital. All growth is the result of changes in either TFP or NTV, so one or other must improve to avoid stagnation. There is no way to improve the former, but changes in NTV can be brought about through a lower hurdle rate, which requires the damage from the bonus culture to end.

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