Food Security Policy Analysis Using System Dynamics

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-90
Author(s):  
Isdore Paterson Guma ◽  
Agnes Semwanga Rwashana ◽  
Benedict Oyo
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Subsistence Farming ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Weak Extension

Food security (FS) challenges exist in both the developed and the developing countries, the difference being the severity and the proportion of the population affected. Previous studies maintain that chronic food insecurity at subsistence farming level has persisted due to a number of factors including unsustainable subsistence agriculture and livelihood policies, lack of inputs, poor conservation methods, weak extension services, unregulated markets, limited land among others. This article investigates FS challenges at subsistence farming level using system dynamics tools. The emerging system dynamics model is conceptualised into four sectors; food production, sales, income and food consumption, representing a real-life food security system. The model is used to evaluate policies for better livelihoods as well as explore strategies for profitable subsistence farming and food security.

scholarly journals Development of Spatial-System Dynamics Model for Food Security Policy in Indonesia: A Generic Sub-Model Simulation

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 156-169
Author(s):  
Teten W Avianto ◽  
◽  
Utomo Sarjono Putro ◽  
Pri Hermawan ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Spatial System

scholarly journals An Integrated Global Food and Energy Security System Dynamics Model for Addressing Systemic Risk

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 3995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Pasqualino ◽  
Irene Monasterolo ◽  
Aled Jones
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Land Development ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Food

In 1972, The Limits to Growth, using the World3 System Dynamics model, modeled for the first time the long-term risk of food security, which would emerge from the complex relation between capital and population growth within the limits of the planet. In this paper, we present a novel system dynamics model to explore the short-term dynamics of the food and energy system within the wider global economic framework. By merging structures of the World3, Money, and Macroeconomy Dynamics (MMD) and the Energy Transition and the Economy (ETE) models, we present a closed system global economy model, where growth is driven by population growth and government debt. The agricultural sector is a general disequilibrium productive sector grounded on World3, where capital investment and land development decisions are made to meet population food need, thus generating cascade demands for the energy and capital sector. Energy and Capital Sectors employ a more standard economic approach in line with MMD and ETE. By taking into account the role of financial, real, and natural capital, the model can be used to explore alternative scenarios driven by uncertainty and risk, such as climate extreme events and their impacts on food production. The paper presents scenario analysis of the impact of an exogenous price, production, and subsidies shock in the food and/or energy dimensions on the economic system, understanding the sources of potential cascade effects, thus providing a systemic risk assessment tool to inform global food security policies.

Early warning of food security in East Java Indonesia using a system dynamics model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vina Vahlevi Al Juned ◽  
Iwan Vanany ◽  
Diesta Iva Maftuhah ◽  
Granita Hajar
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model

scholarly journals Food Security: Self–Sufficiency of Rice in Malaysia

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatimah Mohamed Arshad ◽  
Emmy Farha Alias ◽  
Kusairi Mohd Noh ◽  
Muhammad Tasrif
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Optimum Productivity ◽  
The Government

Malaysia’s stance on food security is largely translated in terms of achieving self-sufficiency in rice production at about 65-70% of the local consumption. Since Malaysia does not have the comparative advantage in rice production, it implements a wide range of market interventions to achieve the intended level of rice production. The policy instruments include among others: guaranteed minimum price for paddy, price control, price and input subsidies and import monopoly. These interventionist instruments may not be sustainable in the long-term as they incur a high budgetary burden to the government, misallocation of resources and liberalization demand from WTO. The industry faces challenges in terms of land competition for urbanization and industrial uses and declining soil fertility due to heavy use of chemical fertilizer. This paper examines the influence of the fertilizer and the cash subsidies, as well as land conversion and fertility on the level of self-sufficiency in rice. A system dynamics model is applied to analyse the causal and feedback relationships of these variables in the paddy production system framework. The study shows that Malaysia may not be able to sustain the targeted self-sufficiency level without adequate R&D to address the production constraints particularly below-optimum productivity and the threats of climate change. The consumption of rice on the other hand continues to rise due to the increase in population.   Keywords: Paddy and rice, Malaysia, system dynamics, policy analysis.

scholarly journals A System Dynamics Model of Employees’ Performance

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (16) ◽  
pp. 6511
Author(s):  
Mudhafar Alefari ◽  
Mohammed Almanei ◽  
Konstantinos Salonitis
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Employee Performance ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Overall Performance ◽  
Flow Diagrams ◽  
Dynamics Models ◽  
The Impact

Employee performance is dynamic and can have great impact on the overall performance of any company and its sustainability. A number of factors that can be controlled by the company can affect the employees’ performance. The present paper starts with a thorough literature review for identifying these key driving in order to develop a system dynamics models that will be able to assess different improvement scenarios and initiatives. Based on causal loop diagrams, stock and flow diagrams are developed and solved using system dynamics theory. The model developed can be used for organizations to assess the impact of different improvement initiatives.

scholarly journals Potential and attainable food production and food security in different regions

1997 ◽  
Vol 352 (1356) ◽  
pp. 917-928 ◽  
Author(s):  
F.W. T. Penning De Vries ◽  
R. Rabbinge ◽  
J. J. R. Groot
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Food Crops ◽  
Regional Food ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Two Generations ◽  
Agricultural Use

Growing prosperity in the South is accompanied by human diets that will claim more natural resources per capita. This reality, combined with growing populations, may raise the global demand for food crops two– to four–fold within two generations. Considering the large volume of natural resources and potential crop yields, it seems that this demand can be met smoothly. However, this is a fallacy for the following reasons. (i) Geographic regions differ widely in their potential food security: policy choices for agricultural use of natural resources are limited in Asia. For example, to ensure national self–sufficiency and food security, most of the suitable land (China) and nearly all of the surface water (India) are needed. Degradation restricts options further. (ii) The attainable level of agricultural production depends also on socio–economic conditions. Extensive poverty keeps the attainable food production too low to achieve food security, even when the yield gap is wide, as in Africa. (iii) Bio–energy, non–food crops and nature ‘compete’ with food crops for natural resources. Global and regional food security are attainable, but only with major efforts. Strategies to achieve alternative aims will be discussed.

The Construction Agency's Reasonable Profit Research Based on System Dynamics

2013 ◽  
Vol 357-360 ◽  
pp. 2478-2482
Author(s):  
Yan Wang ◽  
Liang Wang
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Project Success ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Profit Margins ◽  
Cost Rate ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

The government investment in the construction project general always use of the design budgetary estimate as the construction-agent charge fees foundation, and with reference to the owners management cost rate to calculate the construction-agent charge. By analyzing the composition of the construction-agent charge and the difference between the owners management cost and the construction-agent charge, studying of the composition and rates of construction-agent charge in various key cities nationwide in detail, pointing out the fact that the current generation of construction-agent charge rates are too low, and then established a system dynamics model and analyzed the relationship between a reasonable profit margins and project success rate dynamically. Pointed out the necessity of a reasonable profit margin, and make same recommendations accordingly.

scholarly journals System crash as dynamics of complex networks

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (42) ◽  
pp. 11726-11731 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Yu ◽  
Gaoxi Xiao ◽  
Jie Zhou ◽  
Yubo Wang ◽  
Zhen Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Complex Networks ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Local Information ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Individual Actions ◽  
Interesting System

Complex systems, from animal herds to human nations, sometimes crash drastically. Although the growth and evolution of systems have been extensively studied, our understanding of how systems crash is still limited. It remains rather puzzling why some systems, appearing to be doomed to fail, manage to survive for a long time whereas some other systems, which seem to be too big or too strong to fail, crash rapidly. In this contribution, we propose a network-based system dynamics model, where individual actions based on the local information accessible in their respective system structures may lead to the “peculiar” dynamics of system crash mentioned above. Extensive simulations are carried out on synthetic and real-life networks, which further reveal the interesting system evolution leading to the final crash. Applications and possible extensions of the proposed model are discussed.

A System Dynamics Model for Subsistence Farmers' Food Security Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benedict Oyo ◽  
Billy Mathias Kalema
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Resource Scarcity ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Market Failures ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Subsistence Farmers ◽  
Donor Support ◽  
Sub Saharan

Food security at subsistence farmers' level in sub-Saharan Africa has become an issue of concern due to increasing vulnerability caused by a number of factors such as: changing climate, resource scarcity (e.g. land and inputs), environmental degradation (e.g. declining soil fertility, deforestation, and surface water eutrophication), market failures and weak public/donor support initiatives. In light of these challenges, farmers must be prepared to survive by self-provisioning. To pursue the fastest and most practical route to improved food security, focus should be on resilience based initiatives at household and community levels. In this paper, the authors investigate the factors that have enabled subsistence farmers to succeed despite the previous shocks and stresses, and develop a system dynamics model for sustainable food security based on initiatives exclusive to the farmers. The model is used to examine the question: how can innovative subsistence farmers engage in better livelihood and market orientated production irrespective of external public or donor support?

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