Predicting the death rate around the world due to Covid-19 using regression analysis

2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Ordinary Differential Equation ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Reproductive Rate ◽  
The World ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Death Cases

Nowadays, COVID-19 is considered to be the biggest disaster that the world is facing. It has created a lot of destruction in the whole world. Due to this COVID-19, analysis has been done to predict the death rate and infected rate from the total population. To perform the analysis on COVID-19, regression analysis has been implemented by applying the differential equation and ordinary differential equation (ODE) on the parameters. The parameters taken for analysis are the number of susceptible individuals, the number of Infected Individuals, and the number of Recovered Individuals. This work will predict the total cases, death cases, and infected cases in the near future based on different reproductive rate values. This work has shown the comparison based on 4 different productive rates i.e. 2.45, 2.55, 2.65, and 2.75. The analysis is done on two different datasets; the first dataset is related to China, and the second dataset is associated with the world's data. The work has predicted that by 2020-08-12: 59,450,123 new cases and 432,499,003 total cases and 10,928,383 deaths.

scholarly journals Determinants of COVID-19 Death Rate in Europe: Empirical Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-28
Author(s):  
Serhii Kozlovskyi ◽  
◽  
Daria Bilenko ◽  
Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi ◽  
Serhii Vitvitskyi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Mortality Statistics ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

At the end of 2019, the new virus called Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spread widely from China all over the world (including Europe). Most countries in Europe at the beginning of 2020 have been quarantined. The aim of the work is to develop the system dynamics model for assessing the impact of the different factors on the COVID-19 death rate in Europe. There were tested three hypotheses about factors of reducing the COVID-19 death rate with the help of linear regression analysis. The density of the population of European countries doesn’t affect the COVID-19 death rate. Also, COVID-19 death rate does not drastically affect mortality statistics. But the level of country’s economic development is a factor of COVID-19 death rate because in high developed countries the pandemic death rate is lower, regardless of the mechanisms of the spread of the disease and its impact on human health.

A Compact Embodiment of Pluralities and Denial of Origins: Atwood’s The Year of The Flood

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
Rana Sağıroğlu
Keyword(s):  
Science Fiction ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Social Order ◽  
Margaret Atwood ◽  
Rapid Change ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The World ◽  
Narrative Techniques ◽  
Why Questions ◽  
Near Future

Margaret Atwood, one of the most spectacular authors of postmodern movement, achieved to unite debatable and in demand critical points of 21st century such as science fiction, postmodernism and ecocriticism in the novel The Year of The Flood written in 2009. The novel could be regarded as an ecocritical manifesto and a dystopic mirror against today’s degenerated world, tending to a superficial base to keep the already order in use, by moving away from the fundamental solution of all humanity: nature. Although Atwood does not want her works to be called science fiction, it is obvious that science fiction plays an introductory role and gives the novel a ground explaining all ‘why’ questions of the novel. However, Atwood is not unjust while claiming that her works are not science fiction because of the inevitable rapid change of 21st century world becoming addicted to technology, especially Internet. It is easily observed by the reader that what she fictionalises throughout the novel is quite close to possibility, and the world may witness in the near future what she creates in the novel as science fiction. Additionally, postmodernism serves to the novel as the answerer of ‘how’ questions: How the world embraces pluralities, how heterogeneous social order is needed, and how impossible to run the world by dichotomies of patriarchal social order anymore. And lastly, ecocriticism gives the answers of ‘why’ questions of the novel: Why humanity is in chaos, why humanity has organized the world according to its own needs as if there were no living creatures apart from humanity. Therefore, The Year of The Flood meets the reader as a compact embodiment of science fiction, postmodernism and ecocriticism not only with its theme, but also with its narrative techniques.

The Supply-Demand Research of Cultural and Tourism Industries Policies in China with the Impact of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-24
Author(s):  
Dr. Jianfei Yang
Keyword(s):  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Cultural Industries ◽  
Real Situation ◽  
The Real ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Post Period

COVID-19 has made a bad influence on economic and society including cultural and tourism industry in China，2020.The industry has received a huge loss in the first quarter of the year and the situation is getting worse in the near future. It is believed that there will be a long impact for the country even the world. In order to recover the industry, Chinese government has published series of policies to support the enterprises and clusters to reduce the bad influence of COVID-19. This paper mainly uses filed survey and documentary research to map the real situation of the industry. It tries to find the policy demand of the industries and then analyze the policies published by government to conquer COVID-19. Meanwhile it will focus on whether the supply meet the demand and give suggestions on how to promote the policy efficiency in the post period of COVID-19 in China. Keywords: Evaluation; Cultural Industries; Policy; Park; Pandemic

ARIMA model for forecasting COVID-19 Death cases in India (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeya Sutha M
Keyword(s):  
Arima Model ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
World Health ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Spread Of Infection ◽  
Death Cases

UNSTRUCTURED COVID-19, the disease caused by a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a highly contagious disease. On January 30, 2020 the World Health Organization declared the outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. As of July 25, 2020; 15,947,292 laboratory-confirmed and 642,814 deaths have been reported globally. India has reported 1,338,928 confirmed cases and 31,412 deaths till date. This paper presents different aspects of COVID-19, visualization of the spread of infection and presents the ARIMA model for forecasting the status of COVID-19 death cases in the next 50 days in order to take necessary precaution by the Government to save the people.

scholarly journals An outline of SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis and the complement cascade of immune system

2021 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Padmalochan Hembram
Keyword(s):  
Immune System ◽  
Dark Side ◽  
Main Body ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Transmission Chain ◽  
The World ◽  
Therapeutic Molecules ◽  
Rapid Transmission ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Near Future

Abstract Background Coronavirus disease 19 is a viral infection caused by a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. It was first notified in Wuhan, China, is now spread into numerous part of the world. Thus, the world needs urgent support and encouragement to develop a vaccine or antiviral treatments to combat the atrocious outbreak. Main body of the abstract The origin of this virus is yet unknown; however, rapid transmission from human-to-human “Anthroponosis” has widely confirmed. The world is witnessing a continuous hike in SARS-CoV-2 infection. In light of the outbreak of coronavirus disease 19, we have aimed to highlight the basic and vital information about the novel coronavirus. We provide an overview of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, timeline and its pathophysiological properties which would be an aid for the development of therapeutic molecules and antiviral drugs. Immune system plays a crucial role in virus infection in order to control but may have dark side when becomes uncontrollable. The host and SARS-CoV-2 interaction describe how the virus exploits host machinery and how overactive host immune response can cause disease severity also addressed in this review. Short conclusion Safe and effective vaccines may be the game-changing tools, but in the near future wearing mask, washing hands at regular intervals, avoiding crowed, maintaining physical distancing and hygienic surrounding, must be good practices to reduce and break the transmission chain. Still, research is ongoing not only on how vaccines protect against disease, but also against infection and transmission.

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