ARIMA model for forecasting COVID-19 Death cases in India (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeya Sutha M
Keyword(s):  
Arima Model ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
World Health ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Spread Of Infection ◽  
Death Cases

UNSTRUCTURED COVID-19, the disease caused by a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a highly contagious disease. On January 30, 2020 the World Health Organization declared the outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. As of July 25, 2020; 15,947,292 laboratory-confirmed and 642,814 deaths have been reported globally. India has reported 1,338,928 confirmed cases and 31,412 deaths till date. This paper presents different aspects of COVID-19, visualization of the spread of infection and presents the ARIMA model for forecasting the status of COVID-19 death cases in the next 50 days in order to take necessary precaution by the Government to save the people.

scholarly journals ASPEK HUKUM PELAKSANAAN VAKSINASI COVID-19 DI INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
pp. 1263
Author(s):  
Stephanie PD ◽  
Enjelina S ◽  
Angelica MF ◽  
Imelda Martinelli
Keyword(s):  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
World Health ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
Presidential Decree ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Right

The World Health Organization (WHO) defines the 2019-nCoV type of corona virus as a pandemic of a new type of disease spread throughout the world, this is not only a public health case, but will touch every sector. The COVID-19 (cov-19) pandemic has resulted in an emergency for the healthy condition of the Indonesian people, so President Joko Widodo has issued Presidential Decree No. 11/2020. In "procuring vaccines and implementing vaccinations for the prevention of the COVID-19 pandemic" President Joko Widodo stipulates Presidential Decree No. 14/2021. In choosing health facilities and infrastructure independently & responsibly, every human being has the right to choose according to his wishes, due to the pandemic conditions that concern the interests of the people and the state, so giving vaccinations is actually voluntary because emergency conditions can be forced. Although there is already a legal umbrella for Law No. 4/1984: "Infectious Disease Outbreaks" and Law No. 6/2018: "Health Quarantine", many in the field agree and vice versa on the implementation of vaccination in the community. The purpose of the study is to understand the nature of the administration of the corona vaccine according to the laws and regulations adopted and the factors that occur in society. Using a normative method with a qualitative approach. Giving vaccines to the community is forced. limited availability of vaccines; there are those who support there are those who are antipathy from the community regarding the implementation of vaccination; uneven distribution. The reason for the community's refusal to receive the Covid-19 vaccine is due to different trusts, this is supported by the lack of communication channels as well as the delivery of information that is not well targeted, the data on the type of vaccine is limited in information, the availability of the Covid-19 vaccine, as well as safe conditions. The government should fully support the Nusantara vaccine and the Merah Putih vaccine developed by Indonesian researchers. World Health Organizatioan (WHO) mendefinisikan Virus corona jenis Virus 2019-nCoV sebagai pandemi jenis penyebaran penyakit baru keseluruh dunia, hal ini bukan hanya kasus kesehatan masyarakat, tapi akan menyentuh setiap sektor. Pandemi covid-19(cov-19) mengakibatkan kedaruratan kondisi sehat khalayak Indonesia, sehingga Presiden Joko Widodo menetapkan KeppresNo.11/2020. Dalam “pengadaan vaksin dan pelaksanaan vaksinasi untuk penanggulangan pandemi covid-19” Presiden Joko widodo menetapkan Perpres No.14/2021. Dalam memilih sarana juga prasarana kesehatan secara mandiri & bertangggungjawab tiap manusia punya hak memilih sesuai dengan keinginannya, berhubung kondisi pandemi yang menyangkut kepentingan rakyat dan negara lebih diutamakan, jadi pemberian vaksinasi yang sebenaranya bersifat volunteer karena kondisi darurat bisa bersifat dipaksakan. Meskipun sudah ada payung hukum UU No.4/1984:”Wabah Penyakit Menular” serta UU No.6/2018:“Kekarantinaan Kesehatan”, tapi dilapangan banyak yang setuju dan sebaliknya pada pelaksanaan vaksinasi dimasyarakat. Tujuan penelitian untuk memahami sifat dari pemberian vaksin corona menurut peraturan perundangan yang dianut dan faktor- faktor yang terjadi di masyarakat.  Memakai metode normatif dengan pendekatan kualitatif. Pemberian vaksin kepada masyarakat bersifat memaksa. keterbatasan ketersedian vaksin; ada yang mendukung ada yang antipati dari masyarakat terkait pelaksanaan vaksinasi; penyaluran yang tidak merata. Alasan penolakan masyarakat dalam menerima vaksin Covid-19 dikarenakan adanya trust yang berbeda,  hal ini didukung kurangnya alur komunikasi juga cara penyampaian informasi yang kurang tepat sasaran, data jenis vaksin terbatas informasinya, ketersediaan vaksinCov-19, juga syarat aman. Pemerintah selayaknya mendukung penuh vaksin Nusantara dan vaksin Merah Putih  yang dikembangkan para peneliti Indonesia.

scholarly journals COVID-19: Easing the coronavirus lockdowns with caution

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasheed Omobolaji Alabi ◽  
Akpojoto Siemuri ◽  
Mohammed Elmusrati
Keyword(s):  
World Health Organization ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Death Cases

Background: The spread of the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has reached a global level, creating a pandemic. The government of various countries, their citizens, politicians, and business owners are worried about the unavoidable economic impacts of this pandemic. Therefore, there is an eagerness for the pandemic peaking. Objectives: This study uses an objective approach to emphasize the need to be pragmatic with easing of lockdowns measures worldwide through the forecast of the possible trend of COVID-19. This is necessary to ensure that the enthusiasm about SARS-CoV-2 peaking is properly examined, easing of lockdown is done systematically to avoid second-wave of the pandemic. Methods: We used the Facebook prophet on the World Health Organization data for COVID-19 to forecast the spread of SARS-CoV-2 for the 7th April until 3rd May 2020. The forecast model was further used to forecast the trend of the virus for the 8th until 14th May 2020. We presented the forecast of the confirmed and death cases. Results: Our findings from the forecast showed an increase in the number of new cases for this period. Therefore, the need for easing the lockdown with caution becomes imperative. Our model showed good performance when compared to the official report from the World Health Organization. The average forecasting accuracy of our model was 79.6%. Conclusion: Although, the global and economic impact of COVID-19 is daunting. However, excessive optimism about easing the lockdown should be appropriately weighed against the risk of underestimating its spread. As seen globally, the risks appeared far from being symmetric. Therefore, the forecasting provided in this study offers an insight into the spread of the virus for effective planning and decision-making in terms of easing the lockdowns in various countries.

scholarly journals Attitude, Perception, and Knowledge of COVID-19 Among General Public in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sammina Mahmood ◽  
Tariq Hussain ◽  
Faiq Mahmood ◽  
Mehmood Ahmad ◽  
Arfa Majeed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
World Health ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
The Public ◽  
Awareness Campaigns ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization

The World Health Organization has acknowledged coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease as a pandemic. Efforts are being made all over the world to raise awareness to prevent the spread of the disease. The goal of this study was to assess the attitude, perception, and knowledge of Pakistani people toward COVID-19 disease. We conducted a cross-sectional survey in which a questionnaire of 17 questions was transformed online on Google forms and was sent to random individuals online. A total of 1,000 questionnaires from individuals throughout Pakistan were evaluated. The results revealed that 42.9% of the participants knew about COVID-19 through social media, the largest source of information. Most of the participants (48.3%) started working from home amid the lockdown; 39.9% of the participants reported that they wash their hands every hour, and 56.9% participants are using a surgical mask. About thermal scanners, 30.5% of the people answered they may be effective, and 46.0% of the people think COVID-19 is a bioweapon; 59% of the participants think everyone is susceptible, whereas 83.9% of the people recognize fever as a primary symptom; 65.2% of the people are practicing social distancing, whereas 85.1% of the people think social gatherings causes spread of the disease. In general, participants had a good knowledge about the disease and a positive attitude toward protective measures. The effective measures are being taken by the government and the public; still, there remains a need for further awareness campaigns and knowledge of safe interventions to combat the spread of disease.

scholarly journals COVID-19 PANDEMIC: THE MALAYSIAN GOVERNMENT'S APPROACH IN MANAGING NATIONAL SECURITY

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (26) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Muhammad Farhan Izhar ◽  
Ishak Abd Rahman ◽  
Azmi Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
National Security ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
World Health ◽  
Economic Approach ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Stimulus Package

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) coronavirus or better known as Covid-19 was first detected on 17 November 2019 in Hubei province, China, and was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11 March 2020. Until 1 November 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic has spread to 215 countries worldwide where the total number of cases recorded is 45,942,902 cases and 1,192,644 deaths. In Malaysia, a total of 31,548 cases and 249 deaths were recorded. The Covid-19 pandemic has caused economic paralysis and affected the lives of communities around the world. The main objective that will be discussed in this article is the Malaysian government's approach in dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic to ensure that the country's socio-economy is not affected where it could affect national security. In this article, the method of collecting information is through references in websites, e-journals, e-newspapers, and related reports. The results show that the Malaysian government has taken two main approaches in managing national security, namely through the health and economy of the people. The health approach is through efforts to curb the Covid-19 epidemic from spreading further in the country which can have a negative impact on the economy and society of Malaysians. Next, the people's economic approach implemented is through the People's Economic Stimulus Package announced by the government to help the people affected by the Covid-19 epidemic and ensure that the country's economy can be restored. This approach has succeeded in maintaining national peace as well as preventing the occurrence of things that could affect national security such as riots or demonstrations by the people due to dissatisfaction with the government.

scholarly journals Contact Tracing and Quarantine for Covid 19: Challenges in community surveillance

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (2 (Supp)) ◽  
pp. 306-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giriyanna Gowda ◽  
Ramesh Holla ◽  
Balaji Ramraj ◽  
Kishore Shettihalli Gudegowda
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
World Health ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Spread Of Infection

Covid 19 caused by SARS-coV-2 is a novel corona virus. This began in Wuhan city, China at the end of December 2019 and had spread to the rest of the world. World Health Organization (WHO) declared Covid 19 as Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on 30th Jan 2020 and later declared as pandemic on 11th march 2020. 1 The disease is mainly spread from human to human through small droplets from nose or mouth when a person with Covid 19 coughs or exhales and through the surface contact. Community surveillance plays significant role in prevention of spread of disease. It includes isolation of the positive case, quarantine of the high risk and low risk contacts and community disinfection.1, 2             The period of communicability is estimated with the current data to be from 2 days before the onset of symptoms and up to 2 weeks after onset. Hence the initial few asymptomatic days turns out to be crucial period in containing the spread of infection. By the time a Covid 19 patient is diagnosed and isolated, there are quite a number of primary and secondary contacts. Government of India focus has been on Community Surveillance activities which mainly comprises of Contact Tracing and Quarantine.3, 4 This article focuses on the various measures taken to trace the contacts, quarantine measures and on the challenges faced.

The relevance of dietetic approach of Ayurveda from the perspective of COVID-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 748-752
Author(s):  
Swapnali Khabade ◽  
Bharat Rathi ◽  
Renu Rathi
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Healthy Person ◽  
World Health ◽  
Physical And Mental Health ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Individual

A novel, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), causes severe acute respiratory syndrome and spread globally from Wuhan, China. In March 2020 the World Health Organization declared the SARS-Cov-2 virus as a COVID- 19, a global pandemic. This pandemic happened to be followed by some restrictions, and specially lockdown playing the leading role for the people to get disassociated with their personal and social schedules. And now the food is the most necessary thing to take care of. It seems the new challenge for the individual is self-isolation to maintain themselves on the health basis and fight against the pandemic situation by boosting their immunity. Food organised by proper diet may maintain the physical and mental health of the individual. Ayurveda aims to promote and preserve the health, strength and the longevity of the healthy person and to cure the disease by properly channelling with and without Ahara. In Ayurveda, diet (Ahara) is considered as one of the critical pillars of life, and Langhana plays an important role too. This article will review the relevance of dietetic approach described in Ayurveda with and without food (Asthavidhi visheshaytana & Lanhgan) during COVID-19 like a pandemic.

viewpoint TIME TO RESTART: PROTOCOL OF RESUMPTION OF ACTIVITIES OF A DERMATOLOGICAL CLINIC OF A LEVEL II HOSPITAL IN THE COVID-19 ERA. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Diotallevi ◽  
Anna Campanati ◽  
Giulia Radi ◽  
Oriana Simonetti ◽  
Emanuela Martina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
World Health ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Staff Members ◽  
Level Ii ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Spread Of Infection ◽  
Hospital Wards ◽  
Medical And Healthcare

UNSTRUCTURED Two months have passed since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the pandemic of the Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19), caused by the SARS CoV-2 virus, on March 11, 2020. Medical and healthcare workers have continued to be on the frontline to defeat this disease, however, continual changes are being made to their working habits which are proving to be difficult. Since the beginning of the pandemic, a major reorganisation of all hospital wards, including dermatological wards, has been carried out in order to make medical and nursing staff available in COVID wards and to prevent the spread of infection. These strategies, which were also adopted in our clinic, proved to be effective, as no staff members or patients were infected by the virus. Now, thanks to the global decrease in SARS-CovV2 infections, it is necessary to make dermatological wards accessible to patients again, but it is also essential to adopt specific protocols to avoid a new wave of infections.

scholarly journals A PIECEWISE GROWTH MODEL FOR MODELING THE ACCUMULATED NUMBER OF COVID-19 CASES IN THE CITY OF CAMPO GRANDE

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 240
Author(s):  
Erlandson Ferreira SARAIVA ◽  
Leandro SAUER ◽  
Basílio De Bragança PEREIRA ◽  
Carlos Alberto de Bragança PEREIRA
Keyword(s):  
Growth Model ◽  
Health Department ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mathematical Study ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Technical Report ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The City

In December of 2019, a new coronavirus was discovered in the city of Wuhan, China. The World Health Organization officially named this coronavirus as COVID-19. Since its discovery, the virus has spread rapidly around the world and is currently one of the main health problems, causing an enormous social and economic burden. Due to this, there is a great interest in mathematical models capable of projecting the evolution of the disease in countries, states and/or cities. This interest is mainly due to the fact that the projections may help the government agents in making decisions in relation to the prevention of the disease. By using this argument, the health department of the city (HDC) of Campo Grande asked the UFMS for the development of a mathematical study to project the evolution of the disease in the city. In this paper, we describe a modeling procedure used to fit a piecewise growth model for the accumulated number of cases recorded in the city. From the fitted model, we estimate the date in which the pandemic peak is reached and project the number of patients who will need treatment in intensive care units. Weekly, was sent to HDC a technical report describing the main results.

scholarly journals Penggunaan Aplikasi Google Classroom sebagai Metode Pembelajaran Daring Selama Pandemi Covid-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 11-17
Author(s):  
Mirza Ghulamudin Ghulamudin ◽  
Maufur ◽  
Beni Habibi
Keyword(s):  
Distance Learning ◽  
World Health ◽  
Ministry Of Education ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Use Of Technology ◽  
The World ◽  
Teachers And Students ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
In The Beginning

Covid-19 has now attacked Indonesia, where the spread of the disease is very fast. Not only in Indonesia, but all corners of the world are currently experiencing a health crisis. In the beginning, the spread of Covid-19 had an impact on economic activity which began to sluggish. This also has an impact on the education system in Indonesia. Until several countries decided to close schools and universities. In an effort to prevent the spread of covid-19, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends temporarily stopping activities that would potentially cause crowds. Even during the outbreak, covid-19 in Indonesia, there were many ways that the government did to prevent its spread through social distancing. Kemendikbud instructed through the Ministry of Education and Culture (Kemendikbud) Directorate of Higher Education Circular No. 1 of 2020 concerning the prevention of the spread of covid-19 in the world of Education to organize distance learning and advise students to learn from their homes. Teachers and students are starting to be required to follow the current situation by using technology as a distance learning medium. One of the media that is being favored by teachers as a learning medium is the Google Classroom application. This application is an application that can make it easier for students and teachers to create effective learning. Given that students today are a generation who are very familiar with the use of technology. The use of technology in learning is an alternative method used by teachers during the Covid-19 Pandemic.

scholarly journals Cutaneous presentation of COVID-19 Case Report

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 01-02
Author(s):  
Khadiga Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Scientific Journals ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Spread ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Recent Attention

COVID-19 has high transmissibility and infectivity among human. On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) in an effort to slow down the global spread of the virus declared the outbreak, “A global public health emergency of international concern". The skin manifestations of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 were not recognized at the early stages of the pandemic but have received much recent attention in scientific journals. Reported manifestations range from pseudo-chilblains to a morbilliform (measles-like) exanthem, urticaria, vesicular eruptions, a dengue-like petechial rash and ovate scaling macules, and plaques mimicking pityriasis rosea.

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