The Safety Assessment of Unpowered Mooring Vessel Based on Unascertained Measure

2013 ◽  
Vol 361-363 ◽  
pp. 2156-2162
Author(s):  
Gui Bing Zhu ◽  
Xiao Fei Wen ◽  
Hu Liu
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Uncertain Information ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Final Weight ◽  
Interval Weight ◽  
Measure Evaluation

The safety of the unpowered mooring vessel was influenced by human factors, vessel condition, meteorological factors, hydrological and environmental factors. To ensure the safety of the unpowered mooring vessel during mooring, on the basis of unascertained measure evaluation model, the method of Monte Carlo and interval weight was put forward to assess the safety of the vessel. This method enables policymakers, in the treatment of evaluation, to avoid weighing the key factors from the traditional model. It also provides more valid intervals for policymakers while dealing with uncertain information of safety elements and errors caused by human preference. Through a random value of interval weight using Monte Carlo simulation method, the final average value of the simulation is taken as the final weight. Finally, a 16000t unpowered mooring cargo vessel is taken as an example to have a detailed discussion of the application of this method, and a safety result is obtained according to each key element. This method can provide new evaluation method and references to policymakers concerned.

Airport Damage Assessment Based on Uncertain Information

2012 ◽  
Vol 503-504 ◽  
pp. 1301-1305
Author(s):  
Xia Chen ◽  
Min Liu ◽  
Lin Li
Keyword(s):  
Damage Assessment ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Uncertain Information ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Interval Numbers ◽  
Damage Level ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation Model

With respect to airport damage assessment problem, the analysis method is proposed. The airport damage is assessed according to the secondary fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. Then the evaluation method of target damage level is given by the compare methods of interval numbers. Finally, the example calculations are given to demonstrating the effectiveness of this method.

The Role Of Simulation And Modern Business Games

2011 ◽  
pp. 272-294
Author(s):  
Tamio Shimizu ◽  
Marley Monteiro de Carvalho ◽  
Fernando Jose Barbin
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Simple Game ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Probabilistic Values ◽  
Modern Business ◽  
Probabilistic Process

“Probability or stochastic process” is a name used to designate mathematical models that represent the behavior of phenomena described by probability theory, ranging from a simple game of coin tossing up to more complex phenomenon like “Brownian motion theory”, “investment analysis”, etc. Stochastic process uses mathematical models to represent phenomena ruled by the probabilistic variation of some variable over time. Simulation methods, also known as Monte Carlo methods, are stochastic processes that use mathematical models that have similar behavior of real problems, feeding these models with random values generated according to some probability distribution. The term Monte Carlo is used as a synonym for simulation since in some problems the generation of probabilistic values was historically linked to the use of the roulette wheel. In this chapter we show how simulation method can be used to evaluate complex decision problems involving uncertainty. This kind of problem involves knowledge of probability distribution (such as uniform, Poisson, or Normal distribution) used to represent the probabilistic process and the value of respective parameters (such as the average value and the standard deviation). Simulation is the most appropriate tool for visualizing, testing, and evaluating the parameters and the dynamic behavior of a probabilistic process. Simulation uses algorithms that generate a population of probabilistic events which makes possible the estimation of the values of parameters of the problem. The results of a simulation can be proven to be valid approximations of the values of the real phenomenon which they simulate.

scholarly journals A Voltage Sag Severity Evaluation Method for the System Side which Considers the Influence of the Voltage Tolerance Curve and Sag Type

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (16) ◽  
pp. 5065
Author(s):  
Yonghai Xu ◽  
Xingguan Fan ◽  
Siying Deng ◽  
Chunhao Niu
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Reference Value ◽  
User Equipment ◽  
Voltage Sag ◽  
Energy Index ◽  
Weight Calculation ◽  
Interval Evaluation ◽  
Tolerance Curve ◽  
Interval Weight

Considering the influence of user equipment voltage tolerance characteristics and sag types on the evaluation results, this paper proposes a voltage sag severity evaluation method for the system side which considers the influence of the voltage tolerance curve and sag type. As such, a quantitative evaluation of the severity of voltage sag events can be achieved. Firstly, the user’s voltage tolerance curve is used to construct the comparison reference value of the energy index, in order to realize the rapid analysis of the severity of the sag event in the normal area and the abnormal area. Secondly, aiming at the problem of insufficient descriptions of the severity difference of sag events in uncertain areas, an improved energy index evaluation model combined with user tolerance characteristics is established through an interval division and interval weight calculation, so as to divide and evaluate the severity of sag events in uncertain areas. Considering the influence of the sag type on the voltage tolerance curve and user equipment, the energy index correction factor is then constructed, and the measurement function is used for an interval evaluation to obtain the ranking result of the voltage sag severity, which is more in line with the actual situation. Finally, the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified by analyzing 24 voltage sag events at a monitoring node.

A Subjective Evaluation Method for Man-Machine Interface Based on Grey Interval Relational Analysis

2009 ◽  
Vol 419-420 ◽  
pp. 137-140
Author(s):  
Sheng Yuan Yan ◽  
Chun Yan Xia ◽  
Kun Yu ◽  
Wei Bo Xu
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Subjective Evaluation ◽  
Uncertain Information ◽  
Interval Numbers ◽  
Relational Analysis ◽  
Machine Interface ◽  
Man Machine Interface ◽  
Human Thinking ◽  
Set Up

The quality of man-machine interface (MMI) directly affects efficiency, safety and comfort of the man-machine system. Therefore, it is significant to study an appropriate evaluation technology for MMI. The method of grey relational analysis based on interval numbers is put forward in the field of MMI evaluation in this paper, based on human thinking having the grey and fuzzy characteristic. In this method, interval numbers are employed as a mean to reflect the rating of indexes instead of real numbers, which offer uncertain information. By judging the correlative degree between the evaluation criterion and the design schemes, the optimal scheme can be found. Based on the proposed method, a novel subjective evaluation model of MMI is set up and applied in the subjective evaluation on the digital control system console of the power plant. Results of the evaluation example prove that the proposed method for MMI evaluation is reasonable and applicable.

Analysis of Uncertainty in Standard Metal Tank Volume Verification with Monte Carlo Method

2013 ◽  
Vol 712-715 ◽  
pp. 1974-1978
Author(s):  
Jin Hai Li ◽  
Ru Song Tong ◽  
Suo Sheng Cao
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Comparison Method ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Method ◽  
Analog Simulation ◽  
Volume Comparison ◽  
Evaluation Result

The uncertainty in standard metal tank volume value verification is evaluated by using Monte Carlo Method. For second standard metal tank, verification is conducted with volume comparison method. A mathematical model of second standard metal tank volume measurement is established by using first standard metal tank to measure second standard metal tank. An analog simulation is conducted for verification value by using Monte Carlo simulation method, and hence the uncertainty in volume verification is obtained. Through comparison between evaluation result and traditional uncertainty propagation evaluation method, the result indicates that the difference cannot be ignored and the evaluation result by using Monte Carlo Simulation Method is more reliable.

Data Processing in Risk Evaluation of China’s Old Real Estate

2014 ◽  
Vol 685 ◽  
pp. 727-730
Author(s):  
Jian Ping Yang ◽  
Yan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Specific Data ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Project ◽  
Potential Risk Factors

In the recent years, the old real estate has a broad development prospects in the real estate due to the aging of the population and the changes of pension. Because the old real estate project is not mature, so there are many potential risk factors in the process of development. This paper uses the risk matrix evaluation method to build old real estate development risk evaluation model. We take some specific data into the model, then can conclude that project risk assessment level through the calculation of the data.We can find out the key factors in the project development and judge the risk level of the whole project.

A fuzzy evaluation method of road vehicle automatic weighing instrument in dynamic force metrological performance

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 1365-1372
Author(s):  
Xiaohui Mao ◽  
Liping Fei ◽  
Xianping Shang ◽  
Jie Chen ◽  
Zhihao Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Dynamic Performance ◽  
Dynamic Force ◽  
Fuzzy Evaluation ◽  
Road Vehicle ◽  
Evaluation Standard ◽  
The Road ◽  
Metrological Performance

The measurement performance of road vehicle automatic weighing instrument installed on highways is directly related to the safety of roads and bridges. The fuzzy number indicates that the uncertain quantization problem has obvious advantages. By analyzing the factors affecting the metrological performance of the road vehicle automatic weighing instrument, combined with the fuzzy mathematics theory, the weight evaluation model of the dynamic performance evaluation of the road vehicle automatic weighing instrument is proposed. The factors of measurement performance are summarized and calculated, and the comprehensive evaluation standard of the metering performance of the weighing equipment is obtained, so as to realize the quantifiable analysis and evaluation of the metering performance of the dynamic road vehicle automatic weighing instrument in use, and provide data reference for adopting a more scientific measurement supervision method.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document