Travel Distance Prediction of Landslides Triggered by the M8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake

2011 ◽  
Vol 71-78 ◽  
pp. 1736-1740 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiu Zhen Li ◽  
Ji Ming Kong ◽  
Sheng Wei Li
Keyword(s):  
Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Slope Angle ◽  
Field Investigation ◽  
Travel Distance ◽  
Initial Slope ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Runout Distance ◽  
Landslide Volume ◽  
Distance Prediction ◽  
Linear Correlations

Volume and slope are two important factors affecting the runout distance of landslides. Field investigation on 46 landslides triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake show that there are positive linear correlations between the logarithmic values of landslide volume and travel distance. And there is also a positive linear relationship between the equivalent friction coefficient and tangent value of initial slope angle for the landslides. On the basis, we obtained an empirical-statistic equation between the horizontal and vertical travel distance, the volume and initial slope angle. This can provide a basis for prediction of earthquake-induced landslides.

scholarly journals Empirical prediction for travel distance of channelized rock avalanches in the Wenchuan earthquake area

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiwei Zhan ◽  
Xuanmei Fan ◽  
Runqiu Huang ◽  
Xiangjun Pei ◽  
Qiang Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Rock Avalanche ◽  
Field Investigation ◽  
Travel Distance ◽  
Validation Dataset ◽  
Good Prediction ◽  
Visual Interpretation ◽  
Rock Avalanches ◽  
Landslide Volume

Abstract. Rock avalanches are extremely rapid, massive flow-like movements of fragmented rock. The travel path of the rock avalanches may be confined by channels in some cases, which were named as the channelized rock avalanches. Channelized rock avalanches are potentially dangerous due to their hardly predictable travel distance. In this study, we constructed a dataset with detailed characteristic parameters of 38 channelized rock avalanches triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake using the visual interpretation of remote sensing imagery, field investigation, and literature review. Based on this dataset, we assessed the influence of different factors on the runout distance and developed prediction models of the channelized rock avalanches using the multivariate regression method. The results suggested that the movement of channelized rock avalanche was dominated by the landslide volume, total relief, and channel gradient. The performance of both models was then tested with an independent validation dataset of 8 rock avalanches that induced by the 2008 Wenchuan, the Ms7.0 Lushan earthquake, and heavy rainfall in 2013, showing acceptable good prediction results. Therefore, the travel distance prediction models for channelized rock avalanches constructed in this study is applicable and reliable for predicting the run out of similar rock avalanches in other regions.

A regression analysis framework for the prediction of runout distance of landslides: a case study for Sichuan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Gu ◽  
Manousos Valyrakis
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Analysis Framework ◽  
Mountainous Areas ◽  
Runout Distance ◽  
Road Pavement ◽  
Landslide Volume ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Distance Prediction ◽  
Plane Form

<p>In recent years, the impact of landslides on society has increased due to increasing urbanisation and climate change (as much as up to 30%). In about a decade, around 5000 fatal non-seismic landslides have occurred world-wide resulting in almost 56000 deaths, most of which took place in developing countries, such as China and Philippines. The purpose of studying the characteristics of landslides is to develop a better understanding of their features and to reduce any threat posed by them. Out of these characteristics the runout distance directly determines the impact of the landslide and extend of the affected area which are useful in evaluating risk to infrastructure (such as road pavement or railroad or built structures). Therefore, the study of landslide runout distance prediction has great significance for urban planning and risk assessment, specifically in mountainous areas.</p><p> </p><p>This study focuses on conducting a review of previous literature on landslides reported at the region of Wenchuan in Sichuan (China), aiming to identify any trends connecting the cause and effect relationship between landslides in a phenomenological and empirical manner. Specifically, a dataset of landslides (20 due to rainfall and 50 due to earthquake) is used to statistically link, using multiple regression analysis, the travel distance to five main influencing factors, including landslide volume, height of landslide, landslide plane form, landslide average thickness and relative coefficient of friction. Good results are obtained through error minimisation rendering the developed framework as a useful tool for predictive analysis of the potential extend and impact of landslides using historical regional data.</p>

scholarly journals An evaluation of influential factors on landslide mobility during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 613-647 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. P. Guo ◽  
M. Hamada ◽  
C. He
Keyword(s):  
Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Rock Type ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Slope Angle ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
2008 Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Landslide Volume ◽  
Geological Conditions ◽  
Landslide Mobility

Abstract. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake triggered a huge amount of landslides along the Longmenshan thrust belt zone in southwest China. It is essential to evaluate the effects of numerous influential factors on landslide mobility, as a result of having seriously endangered the lives and properties along travel path. Hence, the relations between equivalent coefficient of friction (μ = Hmax / Hmax) and other six parameters of 46 landslides, such as three topographical factors, landslide volume, horizontal peak ground acceleration (PHA) and rock type, have been qualitatively analyzed by means of simplified plots and regressions. The quantitative effectiveness of each factor on landslide mobility was revealed by multivariable analysis and it was found that slope height, rock type, slope transition angle and landslide volume were more influential than slope angle and seismic acceleration. The statistical significance tests and predictive results both demonstrated that the empirical-statistical model of landslide mobility yielded a satisfactory agreement between observations and predictions, therefore, the presented model could be practically applicable in similar geological conditions as Wenchuan earthquake affected area.

An empirical model for landslide travel distance prediction in Wenchuan earthquake area

Landslides ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 281-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deping Guo ◽  
Masanori Hamada ◽  
Chuan He ◽  
Yufeng Wang ◽  
Yulin Zou
Keyword(s):  
Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Empirical Model ◽  
Travel Distance ◽  
Distance Prediction ◽  
Earthquake Area

scholarly journals Volume Estimation of Landslide Affected Soil Moisture Using TRIGRS: A Case Study of Longxi River Small Watershed in Wenchuan Earthquake Zone, China

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 71
Author(s):  
Tong Sun ◽  
Zhiyuan Deng ◽  
Zexing Xu ◽  
Xiekang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Moisture Content ◽  
Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Slope Angle ◽  
Volume Estimation ◽  
Sediment Supply ◽  
Method Of Calculation ◽  
Landslide Volume ◽  
Mountainous Watershed ◽  
The Impact

After the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, geological hazards occurred frequently in the southwest mountainous watershed. Frequent landslide disasters provide abundant sediment supply for mountain torrent disasters. The estimation of the potential landslide volume is essential for the risk assessment of mountain torrent disasters. In this study, a method of calculation that combines TRIGRS and the slope-units for estimating the landslide volume of a small mountainous watershed has been established. TRIGRS analyzes the watershed landslide safety factor under rainfall conditions based on grid-cells. The slope-units extract the results and combine the empirical power law formula to calculate the potential landslide volume. In this paper, we use this method to assess the landslide volume of the Longxi river basin. The results show that the area and volume estimates of the landslides are consistent with the results observed from satellite images and field surveys. This method can be used to study the impact of sediment transport on mountain torrent disasters in the basin. With different moisture content conditions, the results show that the soil moisture content and slope angle significantly affect the distribution and volume of potential landslides in the watershed, giving rise to the uncertainty of the landslide estimation.

scholarly journals An Analysis of Factors Affecting Flowslide Deposit Morphology Using Taguchi Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Zhao Duan ◽  
Yan-Bin Wu ◽  
Hao Tang ◽  
Jian-Quan Ma ◽  
Xing-Hua Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Friction Coefficient ◽  
Taguchi Method ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Slope Angle ◽  
Width Ratio ◽  
Deposit Morphology ◽  
Experimental Conditions ◽  
Maximum Width ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Runout Distance

Flowslides, as one type of landslides, are becoming a research hotspot due to their high speed and long runout distance, which can cause tremendous damage and economic loss. The scale of damage and deposit morphology of flowslide is closely related to factors like deposit volume, slope height, and slope angle. In order to assess the influence of these factors, a sandbox apparatus is developed, and the Taguchi method is used to design an experimental scheme to analyze the results of factors affecting the deposit morphology of flowslide. The results show that the factor that has the greatest impact on flowslide deposit morphology is slope angle, followed by the influence of volume and slope height. As slope angle increases, the maximum width, maximum length, area, and length-width ratio of the deposit first increase and then decrease. In addition, there should be a critical angle in the changes of deposit morphology that is between 60° and 70° under the experimental conditions. When the volume is 5.4 × 10−3 m3, the slope angle is 70°, the slope height is 0.90 m, and the changes of deposit morphology of the flowslide are the largest. In this study, considering the slope angle as a single variable, there is a single upheaval for a slope angle of 40° and 50° and a double upheaval at 60° and 70°. The formation mechanism of the upheaval is analyzed based on the Mohr-Coulomb criterion and considered properties of the material. The apparent friction coefficient of a flowslide is spatially and lithologically different and increases nonlinearly as the slope angle increases. The initial benchmark of the slope angle and apparent friction coefficient curve are affected by the friction coefficient of the material; the position of the inflection point at which the curve increases rapidly is affected by the coefficient of velocity restitution.

scholarly journals Empirical prediction for travel distance of channelized rock avalanches in the Wenchuan earthquake area

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 833-844 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiwei Zhan ◽  
Xuanmei Fan ◽  
Runqiu Huang ◽  
Xiangjun Pei ◽  
Qiang Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Rock Avalanche ◽  
Travel Distance ◽  
Validation Dataset ◽  
Good Prediction ◽  
2008 Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Rock Avalanches ◽  
Landslide Volume

Abstract. Rock avalanches are extremely rapid, massive flow-like movements of fragmented rock. The travel path of the rock avalanches may be confined by channels in some cases, which are referred to as channelized rock avalanches. Channelized rock avalanches are potentially dangerous due to their difficult-to-predict travel distance. In this study, we constructed a dataset with detailed characteristic parameters of 38 channelized rock avalanches triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake using the visual interpretation of remote sensing imagery, field investigation and literature review. Based on this dataset, we assessed the influence of different factors on the runout distance and developed prediction models of the channelized rock avalanches using the multivariate regression method. The results suggested that the movement of channelized rock avalanche was dominated by the landslide volume, total relief and channel gradient. The performance of both models was then tested with an independent validation dataset of eight rock avalanches that were induced by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake and heavy rainfall in 2013, showing acceptable good prediction results. Therefore, the travel-distance prediction models for channelized rock avalanches constructed in this study are applicable and reliable for predicting the runout of similar rock avalanches in other regions.

DISLOCATION OF FACE-SLABS OF ZIPINGPU CONCRETE FACE ROCKFILL DAM DURING WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE

2012 ◽  
Vol 06 (02) ◽  
pp. 1250007 ◽  
Author(s):  
DEGAO ZOU ◽  
YANG ZHOU ◽  
HOE I. LING ◽  
XIANJING KONG ◽  
BIN XU
Keyword(s):  
Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Limit Equilibrium ◽  
Failure Surface ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
2008 Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Rockfill Dam ◽  
Concrete Face ◽  
Concrete Face Rockfill Dam ◽  
Water Elevation

Zipingpu concrete face rockfill dam (CFRD) is one of the tallest dams that have ever been subjected to strong earthquake shaking and recorded damages. In this paper, finite element method and limit equilibrium method are used to determine the most critical failure surface for Zipingpu CFRD during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. The dislocation damage of the face-slab joint was then obtained from the sliding block analysis. The major factors affecting dislocation displacement of face-slabs were analyzed. The results showed that the rigid sliding block method is relevant for analyzing the damage of face-slabs of CFRD during earthquake. The peak ground acceleration had a significant influence on the dislocation. As the acceleration of the dam increases with the height while the strength of face-slab joints reduces, the dislocation could easily occur when the upstream slope of the dam started to slide. The water elevation had considerable impact on the dislocation of face-slabs during strong shaking. There might be no dislocation of face-slabs at full reservoir, and the water elevation just above construction joints would induce larger damage.

scholarly journals Analysis of Climate Change in the Area of Vojvodina-Republic of Serbia and Possible Consequences

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirko Andreja Borisov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Digital Terrain ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Digital Terrain Modeling ◽  
Nature And Society ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Linear Correlations

Climate change conditions a wide range of impacts such as the impact on weather, but also on ecosystems and biodiversity, agriculture and forestry, human health, hydrological regime and energy. In addition to global warming, local factors affecting climate change are being considered. Presentation and analysis of the situation was carried out using geoinformation technologies (radar recording, remote detection, digital terrain modeling, cartographic visualization and geostatistics). This paper describes methods and use of statistical indicators such as LST, NDVI and linear correlations from which it can be concluded that accelerated construction and global warming had an impact on climate change in period from 1987 to 2018 in the area of Vojvodina – Republic of Serbia. Also, using the global SRTM DEM, it is shown how the temperature behaves based on altitude change. Conclusions and possible consequences in nature and society were derived.

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