Prediction of Low Flow Years in the Upstream of Zhang River Based on Improved Gray Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 1051 ◽  
pp. 439-443
Author(s):  
Ling Ling Shao ◽  
Wen Juan Niu ◽  
Fan Tang ◽  
Chao Lin
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Gray Model ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Reasonable Prediction ◽  
The Stability

A reasonable prediction of low flow years in a region in the future so as to make deployment in advance is related to the stability of the region. This paper established conventional GM (1,1) model and improved GM (1,1) model based on grey system theory to predict low flow years in the upstream of Zhang River which has gray characteristics so as to avoid risks, improve spatial and temporal allocation of water resources and promote sustainable development of the basin. The research shows that improved GM (1,1) model which can improve the smoothness of the original data series provides a more accurate prediction than conventional GM (1,1) model by using the example of Zhuozhang River tributary in the Upstream of Zhang River.

Evaluation of Tapered Roller Bearing Vibration Velocity as Data Series Using Grey System Theory

2012 ◽  
Vol 443-444 ◽  
pp. 97-104
Author(s):  
Xin Tao Xia ◽  
Wei Wei Man
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Roller Bearing ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Vibration Velocity ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Tapered Roller Bearing ◽  
Tapered Roller ◽  
Bearing Vibration

With the help of the grey system theory and without any prior information on probability distributions and trends, this paper focus on modeling for the tapered roller bearing vibration velocity as a data series. And the experimental investigation shows that the estimated residual is very small and can satisfy the engineering requirement, laying the foundation for controlling over the vibration of tapered roller bearings in the manufacturing process.

Robust Design Based on Grey Correlation Analysis

2013 ◽  
Vol 401-403 ◽  
pp. 272-275
Author(s):  
Lian Xue ◽  
Le Le Dong
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Robust Design ◽  
Quality Characteristics ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Grey Correlation ◽  
Multiple Quality Characteristics ◽  
Grey Correlation Analysis ◽  
Best Parameter ◽  
The Stability

In this article, the grey correlation is regarded as the decision index of Multiple Quality Characteristics of the Robust designed by the grey system theory. Then using the Analysis of variance to get the factors of Significantly affecting the stability and the best parameter. At last advantage of the method is proved by examples. It proves that grey system theory in robust design is practical greatly.

Research on Prediction of the Amount of Regional Airport Aviation Based on GM (1.1) Model in the Gray System

2014 ◽  
Vol 587-589 ◽  
pp. 1901-1906
Author(s):  
Ai Lan Peng ◽  
Ke Dong ◽  
Wei Na Yang
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Data Sequence ◽  
Practical Situation ◽  
Gray System ◽  
Air Volume ◽  
The Impact

This paper discussed the analysis of the regional airport air volume forecast based on the classic GM (1, 1) model in the grey system theory. Focused on the impact of predict of the data by application of the original data sequence after preprocessing by the strengthen operator and weakening operator in sequence operator. Through the analysis and comparison of the concrete prediction of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region airport aviation data, found that in the process of predicting of the region Airport air volume, introduction of weakening/strengthen operator by combination with the area practical situation, as the result of the regional airport aviation prediction is conformity with the practical situation and forecasting precision is better.

Deformation Prediction Based on Time Series Analysis and Grey System Theory

2011 ◽  
Vol 368-373 ◽  
pp. 2147-2152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dong Liang Qiao ◽  
Ming Zhao
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Large Deviation ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Deformation Prediction ◽  
Series Analysis

For the long-term monitoring of structure, the deformation trend changes periodically and is hard to extract. A small amount of recent data can be selected to avoid such problem. The study refers to the idea of grey system theory and provides an improved way of deformation prediction in time series analysis with a small amount of data. By cumulating the original data, the trend item is made clear and the rule of data becomes obvious. The prediction results show that the way provided by this article gives a more accurate prediction in the short term. When the prediction results have a large deviation with actual deformation, it can be believed that the trend has changed and the monitored structure may be affected.

scholarly journals The prediction of shale gas well production rate based on grey system theory dynamic model GM(1, N)

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 3601-3607
Author(s):  
Xiaohui Luo ◽  
Xiaoqing Yan ◽  
Yusong Chen ◽  
Ming Yue ◽  
Jingwei Li
Keyword(s):  
Shale Gas ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Physical Parameters ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Gas Well

Abstract The prediction of production volumes from shale gas wells is important in reservoir development. The physical parameters of a reservoir are uncertain and complex, and therefore, it is very difficult to predict the production capability of a shale gas well. An improved GM(1, N) model for shale gas well productivity prediction, focused upon the causes of prediction errors from the existing traditional GM(1, N) method, was established. By processing a data series related to the predicted data, the improved GM(1, N) model takes into account the fluctuations of the original production data, reflects the trend of the original data under the influence of relevant factors, and hence predicts more accurately the fluctuation amplitude and direction of the original data. Additionally, the proposed method has higher accuracy than the conventional GM(1, N), GM(1, 1), and MEP models. The prediction accuracy increases gradually and the relative error decreases gradually from bottom data (casing pressure at well start-up, etc.) to top data (shale gas production). Accordingly, a step-by-step prediction method could be effective in improving prediction accuracy and reflects the typical fluctuation characteristics of shale gas production.

Research on Factors Influence of Vegetation Slope Protection Based on Grey Incidence Analysis Theory

2012 ◽  
Vol 226-228 ◽  
pp. 1382-1385
Author(s):  
Feng Chen ◽  
Xiao Bo Xiong ◽  
Zhi Ming Zhai ◽  
Cheng Gu ◽  
Xin Bo Zhang
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Good Prospect ◽  
Grey Theory ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Grey Incidence Analysis ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Incidence Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bio Engineering

Vegetation Slope Protection Engineering was affected by several factors, and has become the focus of the geotechnical engineering. The stability of the vegetation slope must be controlled rigorous according to the surrounding environment condition and safety level of the slope in highway. According to the Grey Incidence Analysis (GIA) method of grey system theory, a new grey theory model is applied in analyzing of the characteristics of Eco-engineering protected by roots of vegetation, to attain the correlation coefficient affected by extent of the factors. After analysis of several practical Bio-engineering examples, to attain the most influencing factors of the stability of vegetation slope are the density of roots (ρ), the length of roots (L), the diameter of roots (D), the weight of soil (γ), the anti-pulling force of roots (P), internal friction angle (φ), cohesive strength(c) and the shear strength of the soil (τ). The role of factors is classified in order to define the extent of the impact and provide guidance for construction and design of Eco-engineering. After analyzing the data collected from the field and several classicistic documents, utilized Grey Incidence Analysis method to make prediction in order to guarantee the slope safety. It shows that the grey system theory can be effectively and practically adopted in the slope stability analysis of vegetation slope in expressway and that has a good prospect.

Prediction and Analysis of Tunnel Crown Settlement Based on Grey System Theory

2012 ◽  
Vol 490-495 ◽  
pp. 423-427 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tong Fa Deng ◽  
Yong Gui ◽  
Ji Yang Yan
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Tunnel Construction ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Road Tunnel ◽  
Time Required ◽  
Mountain Tunnel

Monitoring measurement is of vital importance in mastering surrounding rocks dynamic, adjusting support parameters and determining reasonable supporting time in road tunnel construction using new Austrian method. The grey system theory can predict the development of surrounding rocks and the time required for the steady state by analysis and processing with a few original data. In this paper, the grey system theory was applied in the prediction of the crown settlement of Jiulianshan Mountain Tunnel and compared with the traditional regression analysis method. The results show that the grey system theory has great advantages in the prediction of the tunnel crown settlement

scholarly journals Measuring the Efficiency of Economic Growth towards Sustainable Growth with Grey System Theory

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 10121
Author(s):  
Małgorzata Kokocińska ◽  
Marcin Nowak ◽  
Paweł Łopatka
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
System Theory ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Member States ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Eu Member States

In the paper, a new indicator exemplifying the conversion efficiency of expenditures towards economic growth into results pertaining to sustainable development, dubbed the “Synthetic Efficiency Indicator for Economic Growth” (hereinafter: “SEI-EG”) has been proposed. The inspiration for proposing such an indicator was the identification of the lack of connections between research on economic convergence and the research area connected with sustainable growth category. It was assumed that, in the first place, outcomes of the proposed convergence will be visible in developed economies, represented by EU15 member states. The set goal was to provide an answer to the question of difference between EU15 member states with respect to efficiency of converging expenditures exemplifying economic growth into results pertaining to sustainable growth. The research was conducted for 2016–2018 using Grey System Theory. With the use of the elaborated indicator, the authors created a ranking list of countries based on the efficiency of economic growth towards sustainable growth criterion. The conducted research proved that, in general, the smaller EU member states are characterized by significantly higher efficiency of converging expenditures exemplifying economic growth into results pertaining to sustainable development in the researched area. Among the countries with large economies, only Germany showed efficiency comparable to smaller ones.

Prediction of Technical Reserves Based on Grey Model — GM(1,1): Evidence from Non-life Egyptian Insurance Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 852-860
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Elsayed ◽  
◽  
Amr Soliman ◽  
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Insurance Market ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Loss Ratio ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Mathematical Technique ◽  
Supervisory Authority ◽  
Error Ratio ◽  
Using Data

Grey system theory is a mathematical technique used to predict data with known and unknown characteristics. The aim of our research is to forecast the future amount of technical reserves (outstanding claims reserve, loss ratio fluctuations reserve and unearned premiums reserve) up to 2029/2030. This study applies the Grey Model GM(1,1) using data obtained from the Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority (EFSA) over the period from 2005/2006 to 2015/2016 for non-life Egyptian insurance market. We found that the predicted amounts of outstanding claims reserve and loss ratio fluctuations reserve are highly significant than the unearned premiums reserve according to the value of Posterior Error Ratio (PER).

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