Importance of Holidays for Short Term Load Forecasting Using Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System

2012 ◽  
Vol 433-440 ◽  
pp. 3959-3963 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bayram Akdemir ◽  
Nurettin Çetinkaya
Keyword(s):  
Energy Level ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Peak Energy ◽  
Fold Cross Validation

In distributing systems, load forecasting is one of the major management problems to carry on energy flowing; protect the systems, and economic management. In order to manage the system, next step of the load characteristics must be inform from historical data sets. For the forecasting, not only historical parameters are used but also external parameters such as weather conditions, seasons and populations and etc. have much importance to forecast the next behavior of the load characteristic. Holidays and week days have different affects on energy consumption in any country. In this study, target is to forecast the peak energy level the next an hour and to compare affects of week days and holidays on peak energy needs. Energy consumption data sets have nonlinear characteristics and it is not easy to fit any curve due to its nonlinearity and lots of parameters. In order to forecast peak energy level, Adaptive neural fuzzy inference system is used for hourly affects of holidays and week days on peak energy level is argued. The obtained values from output of the artificial intelligence are evaluated two fold cross validation and mean absolute percentage error. The obtained two fold cross validation error as mean absolute percentage error is 3.51 and included holidays data set has more accuracy than the data set without holiday. Total success increased 2.4%.

Virtual fit evaluation of pants using the Adaptive Network Fuzzy Inference System

2021 ◽  
pp. 004051752110205
Author(s):  
Xueqing Zhao ◽  
Ke Fan ◽  
Xin Shi ◽  
Kaixuan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Inference System ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Test Accuracy ◽  
Adaptive Network ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Simulated Environment ◽  
Two Stages ◽  
Fold Cross Validation

Virtual reality is a technology that allows users to completely interact with a computer-simulated environment, and put on new clothes to check the effect without taking off their clothes. In this paper, a virtual fit evaluation of pants using the Adaptive Network Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), VFE-ANFIS for short, is proposed. There are two stages of the VFE-ANFIS: training and evaluation. In the first stage, we trained some key pressure parameters by using the VFE-ANFIS; these key pressure parameters were collected from real try-on and virtual try-on of pants by users. In the second stage, we evaluated the fit by using the trained VFE-ANFIS, in which some key pressure parameters of pants from a new user were determined and we output the evaluation results, fit or unfit. In addition, considering the small number of input samples, we used the 10-fold cross-validation method to divide the data set into a training set and a testing set; the test accuracy of the VFE-ANFIS was 94.69% ± 2.4%, and the experimental results show that our proposed VFE-ANFIS could be applied to the virtual fit evaluation of pants.

scholarly journals Analyzing performance of classifiers for medical datasets

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2.15) ◽  
pp. 136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosaida Rosly ◽  
Mokhairi Makhtar ◽  
Mohd Khalid Awang ◽  
Mohd Isa Awang ◽  
Mohd Nordin Abdul Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Ensemble Methods ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Ensemble Classifiers ◽  
Classification Models ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Mining Tool ◽  
Fold Cross Validation

This paper analyses the performance of classification models using single classification and combination of ensemble method, which are Breast Cancer Wisconsin and Hepatitis data sets as training datasets. This paper presents a comparison of different classifiers based on a 10-fold cross validation using a data mining tool. In this experiment, various classifiers are implemented including three popular ensemble methods which are boosting, bagging and stacking for the combination. The result shows that for the classification of the Breast Cancer Wisconsin data set, the single classification of Naïve Bayes (NB) and a combination of bagging+NB algorithm displayed the highest accuracy at the same percentage (97.51%) compared to other combinations of ensemble classifiers. For the classification of the Hepatitisdata set, the result showed that the combination of stacking+Multi-Layer Perception (MLP) algorithm achieved a higher accuracy at 86.25%. By using the ensemble classifiers, the result may be improved. In future, a multi-classifier approach will be proposed by introducing a fusion at the classification level between these classifiers to obtain classification with higher accuracies.  

System Identification of Electro-Hydraulic Actuator System using ANFIS Approach

2014 ◽  
Vol 67 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
T. G. Ling ◽  
M. F. Rahmat ◽  
A. R. Husain
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Hydraulic Actuator ◽  
Anfis Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Precise Control ◽  
Stimulus Response ◽  
Operating Region ◽  
Complicated Model

Precise control of an electro-hydraulic actuator (EHA) system has been an interesting subject due to its nonlinearities and uncertainties characteristics. Suitable controller can be designed when the precise model of the system is available. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) modeling technique has proven can model various nonlinear systems at high accuracy. The objective of this paper is to obtain an ANFIS model from EHA system stimulus-response data with less complicated model structure and fewer system parameters. The validation of ANFIS model is done using various data sets which contain different operating region and limited data set, where data set is reduced to small operating region. Results show that ANFIS model can estimate the response nonlinear EHA system with more than 97% high best-fitting accuracy, with simple structure, under different operating region condition.  

scholarly journals AN ADAPTIVE NEURO-FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM FOR FORECASTING AUSTRALIA’S DOMESTIC LOW COST CARRIER PASSENGER DEMAND

Aviation ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 150-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panarat Srisaeng ◽  
Glenn S. Baxter ◽  
Graham Wild
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Inference System ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Subtractive Clustering ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy ◽  
Partition Method

This study has proposed and empirically tested two Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) models for the first time for predicting Australia‘s domestic low cost carriers‘ demand, as measured by enplaned passengers (PAX Model) and revenue passenger kilometres performed (RPKs Model). In the ANFIS, both the learning capabilities of an artificial neural network (ANN) and the reasoning capabilities of fuzzy logic are combined to provide enhanced prediction capabilities, as compared to using a single methodology. Sugeno fuzzy rules were used in the ANFIS structure and the Gaussian membership function and linear membership functions were also developed. The hybrid learning algorithm and the subtractive clustering partition method were used to generate the optimum ANFIS models. Data was normalized in order to increase the model‘s training performance. The results found that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the overall data set of the PAX and RPKs models was 1.52% and 1.17%, respectively. The highest R2-value for the PAX model was 0.9949 and 0.9953 for the RPKs model, demonstrating that the models have high predictive capabilities.

scholarly journals Generated rules for AIDS and e-learning classifier using rough set approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Sarina Sulaiman ◽  
Nor Amalina Abdul Rahim ◽  
Andri Pranolo
Keyword(s):  
Rough Set ◽  
Incomplete Data ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Observation Error ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Left Hand ◽  
Reduction Techniques ◽  
E Learning ◽  
Fold Cross Validation

The emergence and growth of internet usage has accumulated an extensive amount of data. These data contain a wealth of undiscovered valuable information and problems of incomplete data set may lead to observation error. This research explored a technique to analyze data that transforms meaningless data to meaningful information. The work focused on Rough Set (RS) to deal with incomplete data and rules derivation. Rules with high and low left-hand-side (LHS) support value generated by RS were used as query statements to form a cluster of data. The model was tested on AIDS blog data set consisting of 146 bloggers and E-Learning@UTM (EL) log data set comprising 23105 URLs. 5-fold and 10-fold cross validation were used to split the data. Naïve algorithm and Boolean algorithm as discretization techniques and Johnson’s algorithm (Johnson) and Genetic algorithm (GA) as reduction techniques were employed to compare the results. 5-fold cross validation tended to suit AIDS data well while 10-fold cross validation was the best for EL data set. Johnson and GA yielded the same number of rules for both data sets. These findings are significant as evidence in terms of accuracy that was achieved using the proposed model

Virtual Multiphase Flowmetering Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS): A Case Study of Hai Thach-Moc Tinh Field, Offshore Vietnam

SPE Journal ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Tran Ngoc Trung ◽  
Trieu Hung Truong ◽  
Tran Vu Tung ◽  
Ngo Huu Hai ◽  
Dao Quang Khoa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Inference System ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Gas Condensate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Process Conditions ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Data Smoothing ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy ◽  
Fold Cross Validation

Summary For any oil and gas company, well-testing and performance-monitoring programs are expensive because of the cost of equipment and personnel. In addition, it may not be possible to obtain all of the necessary data for a reservoir for a period of time because of production demand constraints or changes in surface process conditions. To overcome these challenges, there are many studies on the implementation and value of virtual flowmetering (VFM) for real-time well performance prediction without any need for a comprehensive well-testingprogram. This paper presents the VFM model using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) at Hai Thach-Moc Tinh (HT-MT) gas-condensate field, offshore Vietnam. The ANFIS prediction model can tune all its membership functions (MFs) and consequent parameters to formulate the given inputs to the desired output with minimum error. In addition, ANFIS is a successful technique used to process large amounts of complex time series data and multiple nonlinear inputs-outputs (Salleh et al. 2017), thereby enhancing predictability. The authors have built ANFIS models combined with large data sets, data smoothing, and k-fold cross-validation methods based on the actual historical surface parameters such as choke valve opening, surface pressure, temperature, the inlet pressure of the gas processing system, etc. The prediction results indicate that the local regression “loess” data smoothing method reduces the processing time and gives both clustering algorithms the best results among the different data preprocessing techniques [highest value of R and lowest value of mean squared error (MSE), error mean, and error standard deviation]. The k-fold cross-validation technique demonstrates the capability to avoid the overfitting phenomenon and enhance prediction accuracy for the ANFIS subtractive clustering model. The fuzzy C-mean (FCM) model in the present study can predict the gas condensate production with the smallest root MSE (RMSE) of 0.0645 and 0.0733; the highest coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.9482 and 0.9337; and the highest variance account of 0.9482 and 0.9334 for training and testing data, respectively. Applied at the HT-MT field, the model allows the rate estimation of the gas and condensate production and facilitates the virtual flowmeter workflow using the ANFIS model.

scholarly journals The Prediction of Solar Radiation for Five Meteorological Stations in Libya Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muna A Alzukrah ◽  
Yosof M Khalifa
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Fuzzy Inference System ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Energy Applications ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy

The prediction of solar radiation is very important tool in climatology, hydrology and energy applications, as it permits estimating solar data for locations where measurements are not available. In this paper, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is presented to predict the monthly global solar radiation on a horizontal surface in Libya. The real meteorological solar radiation data from 5 stations for the period of 1982 - 2009 with diffrent latitudes and longitudes were used in the current study. The data set is divided into two subsets; the fist is used for training and the latter is used for testing the model. (ANFIS) combines fuzzy logic and neural network techniques that are used in order to gain more effiency. The statistical performance parameters such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the coeffient of effiency (E) were calculated to check the adequacy of the model. On the basis of coeffient of effiency, as well as the scatter diagrams and the error modes, the predicted results indicate that the neuro-fuzzy model gives reasonable results: accuracy of about 92% - 96% and the RMSE ranges between 0.22 - 0.35 kW.hr/m2/day

Knowledge-based preference learning model for recommender system using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 4651-4665
Author(s):  
Sunkuru Gopal Krishna Patro ◽  
Brojo Kishore Mishra ◽  
Sanjaya Kumar Panda ◽  
Raghvendra Kumar ◽  
Hoang Viet Long ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Recommender System ◽  
Fuzzy Inference System ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Preference Learning ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy

A recommender system (RS) delivers personalized suggestions on products based on the interest of a particular user. Content-based filtering (CBF) and collaborative filtering (CF) schemes have been previously used for this task. However, the main challenge in RS is cold start problem (CSP). This originates once a new user joins the system which makes the recommendation task tedious due to the shortage of information (clickstream, dwell time, rating, etc.) regarding the user’s interest. Therefore, CBF and CF are combined together by developing a knowledge-based preference learning (KBPL) system. This system considers the demographic data that includes gender, occupation, and age for the recommendation task. Initially, the dataset is clustered using the self-organizing map (SOM) technique, then the high dimensional data is decomposed by higher-order singular value decomposition (HOSVD) and finally, Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) predicts the output. For the big dataset, SOM is a robust clustering method and the similarities among the users can be easily observed by grid clustering. The HOSVD extracts the required information from the available data set to find the user similarity by decomposing the dataset in lower dimensions. ANFIS uses IF-THEN rules to recommend similar product to the new users. The proposed KBPL system is evaluated with the Black Friday dataset and the obtained error value is compared with the existing CF and CBF techniques. The proposed KBPL system has obtained root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.71%, mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.54%, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 37%. Overall, the outcome of the comparative analysis shows minimum error and better performance in terms of precision, recall, and f-measure for the proposed KBPL system compared to the existing techniques and therefore more suitable for accurately recommending the products for the new users.

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