An Epidemic Model with Isolated Intervention Based on Cellular Automata

2014 ◽  
Vol 926-930 ◽  
pp. 1065-1068 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Xin Tan ◽  
Shu Juan Li ◽  
Qin Wu Dai ◽  
Jia Tai Gang
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Disease Duration ◽  
Theoretical Support ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

This paper presents a simulation modeling of epidemic with the isolated intervention based on the theory of Cellular Automata, which is considering the heterogeneity and mobility of the individuals. An idea of the random walk Cellular Automata is used to reflecting the characteristics of the mobility of individuals, by defining the proportion and the largest step of individuals’ movement. What’s more, the model simulates the impact of the disease duration and the isolated intensity on the spreading of epidemic, and the simulation result is coincidence with the macroscopic characteristics of epidemic controlled by isolation intervention. It offers powerful theoretical support for the government to prevent and control the spread of epidemic.

scholarly journals The Impact of Health Risk Communication: A Study on the Dengue, Chikungunya, and Zika Epidemics in Curaçao, Analyzed by the Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF)

2021 ◽  
pp. 104973232110078
Author(s):  
Milou J. F. van Goudoever ◽  
Vaitiare I. C. Mulderij-Jansen ◽  
Ashley J. Duits ◽  
Adriana Tami ◽  
Izzy I. Gerstenbluth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Social Amplification Of Risk ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
News Reports ◽  
Risk Framework ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Risk Reducing

Epidemics of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika have been threatening the Caribbean. Since risk communication (RC) plays a fundamental role in preventing and controlling diseases understanding how RC works is essential for enabling risk-reducing behavior. This multimethod qualitative study compares news reports with local’s and health professional’s perspectives, currently lacking in RC research. It was found that RC strategies were obstructed by a lack of governmental structure, organization, and communication. The content analysis showed that the majority of newspaper articles contained negative reporting on the government. Furthermore, this study shows how trust and heuristics attenuate or amplify people’s risk perceptions and possibly positively and negatively influence people’s risk-reducing behavior. A transcending approach (e.g., structural, cooperative, and multidisciplinary) of the prevention and control of vector-borne diseases and the corresponding RC is recommended.

scholarly journals Dampak Perkembangan Pariwisata Terhadap Kondisi Sosial Ekonomi Masyarakat Di Pulau Nusa Lembongan

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 177
Author(s):  
Budi Shantika ◽  
I Gusti Agung Oka Mahagangga
Keyword(s):  
Local Community ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Community Ownership ◽  
Data Source ◽  
The Government ◽  
Tourism Service ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

This research was conducted based on the condition of the development of tourism on the island of Nusa Lembongan, aiming to find out the impact brought about by socio-economic conditions against the tourism society.This study uses qualitative and quantitative approach with mix method, the primary data source that are obtained by observations and direct interviews and secondary data. The sampling technique used was purposive sampling techniques and data analysis using the method of case study. This study shows tourism provides impact on society and the government on the island of Nusa Lembongan are seen from eight aspect among others : impact increasing of foreign exchange, impact toward local community income that increasing before tourism exist, impact toward higher prices than the real prices, impact toward employment for opportunity to local community, ownership and control of tourism accommodation, the distribution of benefits and advantage against indigenous village, development in general are seen from 4A tourism and government income of tax viewed from PHR. Advice can be given to government and businessman and tourism service on the island of Nusa Lembongan in the order of future improve the facilities, infrastructure supporting tourism, reinforce the rules on the division of the proceeds against the indigenous villages, improving access and employment for local community on the island of Nusa Lembongan.   Key Words              : Tourism, Nusa Lembongan Island, Impact

scholarly journals A spatial econometric empirical research on the impact of industrial agglomeration on haze pollution in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1305-1312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Zhao ◽  
Xiaoxi Cao ◽  
Tao Ma
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Regulation ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Industrial Agglomeration ◽  
Spatial Error ◽  
Spatial Lag Model ◽  
Haze Pollution ◽  
The Government ◽  
Obvious Manner ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Based on statistical data on 30 provincial administrative regions in China from 2000 to 2016, this paper conducts an empirical study of the impact of industrial agglomeration on haze pollution using the spatial Dubin model (SDM), spatial lag model (SLM), and spatial error model (SEM). The findings are as follows: (1) Industrial agglomeration can effectively reduce the degree of haze pollution. (2) Haze pollution has an inverted U-shaped relationship with economic development and population agglomeration. (3) The secondary industry has a positive correlation with haze pollution, while the tertiary industry can reduce haze pollution but not in an obvious manner. (4) The level of innovation and urbanization can help to reduce haze pollution, and the level of economic opening up and carbon dioxide emissions can exacerbate haze pollution. (5) Due to the insufficient commercialization of scientific and technological achievements, investment in science and technology is not obviously effective in preventing and controlling haze pollution. The relationship between environmental regulation and haze pollution is still unclear due to regional differences and the varied effectiveness of law enforcement. The study suggests that the government should guide industrial agglomeration in a reasonable manner, improve joint prevention and control across regions, and strengthen environmental regulation to prevent and control haze pollution.

Socialization Of Prevention and Management Of Covid-19 Cianjur District Goverment

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 560-567
Author(s):  
Warno Warno
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Program ◽  
Field Analysis ◽  
Literature Study ◽  
West Java ◽  
Community Stakeholders ◽  
Analysis Strategy ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

The development of the spread of Covid-19 in Cianjur Regency has spread, as many as seven sub-districts in Cianjur Regency have the highest number of confirmed positive cases of Covid-19 compared to others, averaging over 100 cases. The seven sub-districts include Cianjur, Cipanas, Pacet, Sukaresmi, Cugenang, Karangtengah and Ciranjang districts. Based on this case, the Cianjur Regency Government conducted outreach on prevention and control of COvid-19 in Cianjur. The purpose of this research is to know the analysis, strategy, mobilization, evaluation of the continuity of the socialization of the Covid-19 prevention and control program of the Cianjur Regency Government. This research method uses a qualitative approach with literature study analysis techniques in the scientific field of public policy. Meanwhile, the model used as a reference is the Advocacy Model. This model was first introduced by the Johns Hopkins University-USA Center for Communication Programs (CCP) in 1988. The results and discussion of this study were viewed from the aspect of data analysis in the field that the number of confirmed positive patients in Cianjur Regency was 316 people. In connection with this field analysis, organizations also need to be involved. The organizations involved are: Cianjur Health Office, Cianjur Police, community leaders, entrepreneurs, media, restaurant owners, RT and RW / Kampung, Alim ulama; Health cadres and Posyandu cadres, academics; Community, Stakeholders. Furthermore, the strategic aspect plays an important role, namely, the Cianjur Regency Government, West Java, continues to strive to prevent the spread of the corona virus or Covid-19, one of which is by imposing local isolation. For the third phase, namely Mobilization, which is carried out by the Cianjur Regency Government is very massive, namely implementing health protocols is still a mainstay in Cianjur Regency, West Java to prevent the spread of Covid-19, which has a very dynamic movement rate. The socialization was carried out by intensifying the 3M campaign to the community, namely wearing masks, washing hands, and maintaining distance in various activities. The stages of the action were carried out by the Cianjur Regency Government in collaboration with all parties. Not only the government, but also all other competent policy makers. 3M's Echo activity is a campaign to make people aware of the discipline of applying health protocols. This Echo socialization activity has the theme "Heup cicing covid (stop covid)." The evaluation stage, carried out by the Cianjur Regency Government, is that the old criteria noted that from 1-5 houses there were positive COVID-19 status were still yellow, while the new criteria stated that five or more houses were categorized. in the red zone, so that in Cianjur there are 67 RTs that enter the red zone. The Cianjur Regency Government has carried out continuity steps, namely monitoring the post in order for Cianjur residents to be sterile and monitoring to reduce the impact of Covid19. The government continues to carry out socialization of New Habit Adaptation.

Coups and Mutinies

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Research Area ◽  
Military Effectiveness ◽  
Recent Scholarship ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Important Research Area ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Arab Spring ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Impact

The violent and sudden overthrow of governments has caught the attention of many scholars from various disciplines and placed the incidence of coups at the center of such studies. The result is the emergence of a rich literature that has used a multitude of methods and factors to explain the incidence of coups and control of the military. Although the interest in the incidence of coups and coup-proofing has waxed and waned depending on the waves of democratization and occurrence of the coups, the literature continues to evolve as the recent scholarship has introduced different variables to understand coups. Parallel with coup research, scholars also have started to look into the other ways that a military interferes in politics as well as the impact of coups on other issues, such as democratization and military effectiveness. A military can interfere in politics in subtle ways, which can be within the bounds of the legal order of the state. What is more, even if the military engages in direct disobedience, such as mutinies, these acts do not necessarily turn into an attempt to overthrow the government. Thus military mutinies have started to draw attention. Especially the impact of loyalty and disobedience of militaries on the success and failure of civil unrest has become an important research area following the Arab Spring, and the effects of past coups, the threat of coups, and coup-proofing on other issues, such as democratization and military effectiveness, have become another research avenue within the literature. This literature focuses on how coups and coup-proofing have an overarching effect on the militaries and the political structure of states. The fear of coups can shape the democratization path and the choices that decision makers have. It has a direct impact on military policies, which can end up decreasing military effectiveness. Therefore, this article mainly focuses on the recent scholarship to present the most recent debates in the field. To this end, in the first section, the article presents a list of articles that present a general overview of the field and how the debates have changed over the years. In the second section, we will focus on the various ways that a military interferes with politics and debates on Controlling the Military. The third section delves into the causes of coups and presents a wide range of factors and approaches in understanding coups. The fourth section focuses on the overlooked aspect of military behavior: mutinies and rebellions. The fifth section brings all the previous sections together and investigates the impact of coups and rebellions on Democratization and Military Effectiveness. The final section provides an overview of the Datasets on coups and military participation in politics.

Preliminary Exploration and Management Analysis of the Impact of the Avian Influenza Epidemics from the Point View of Chinese Animal Farmers

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 233
Author(s):  
Kerong Zhang ◽  
Wuyi Liu
Keyword(s):  
Avian Influenza ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Livestock Production ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Epidemic Disease ◽  
Animal Diseases ◽  
The Government ◽  
Behavior Choices ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

<p>In the study, the outbreak of avian influenza was explored analyzed in depth with all the data resources available. It was found that behavior choices and motivations of the animal producers fundamentally depended on their interests and accessing means in the process of animal epidemic disease prevention and control. It was suggested that the government and its sectors should formulate and execute an appropriate compensation system and make compensation timely when there appears an economic impact of major epidemic animal diseases on the producers and the producers’ economic losses are found. Furthermore, the government should take any effective measures to guide and promote the transformation of the conventional modes of livestock production, and lead those farmers and producers to the changed ways of conventional livestock production activities and modes to reduce the probabilities of animal diseases spread and outbreak, especially the infectious diseases like avian influenza.</p>

The Impact of Building Tianfu New Area on Chengdu City Air Quality

2013 ◽  
Vol 726-731 ◽  
pp. 1396-1399 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Liu ◽  
Hong Ling Guo
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Positive Measure ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

This study analyzed the impact of building Tianfu new area in Sichuan on Chengdu city air quality. The paper insists the characteristics of terrain and climate in Tianfu new area lead to the difficult to convect and diffuse air pollutant, and the trend of air quality deteriorating has already emerged as the activities of a large number of industries and population. Absolutely ,building Tianfu new area will further aggravate this trend. And the paper suggests the government should take positive measure in management and policy to prevent and control air pollution.

scholarly journals A novel epidemic model to analyze and control the chaotic behavior of COVID-19 outbreak.

2021 ◽  
Vol 13(62) (2) ◽  
pp. 479-508
Author(s):  
Renu Chugh ◽  
Amit Kumar ◽  
Sudesh Kumari
Keyword(s):  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Chaotic Behavior ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Analysis Techniques ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
The Right ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Good Agreement

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been spread all over the world. There are more than 43.14 million COVID-19 confirmed cases and over 1.15 million deaths reported worldwide till October 26, 2020. As the proper treatment/vaccine is not available, most of the countries are relying on various preventive measures to check the spread of epidemic. The aim of this article is to analyze the impact of corona preventive measures on the spread of COVID-19 by employing a novel epidemic model. Moreover, time series and bifurcation analysis techniques have been used to estimate this impact. To prove the validity of our model, we apply our model on highly affected countries such as China, Italy, USA, UK and India. Our findings might be very useful tool for decision holders and policy makers to take the right decisions in a timely way to control the outbreak of COVID-19, knowing the uncertainties about the coronovirus disease. We show a good agreement between the reported data and the estimations given by our model.

Foreign Portfolio Investments and Return Volatility: An Analysis of the Indian Stock Market

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruchika Wadhwa
Keyword(s):  
Stock Markets ◽  
Trading Behavior ◽  
Foreign Investments ◽  
Individual Entity ◽  
The Government ◽  
Investor Trading ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

Foreign investments are the investments made by residents of a country in the financial instruments and production process of any other country. Any individual, entity or institution that invests money in the financial markets of other countries is called as Foreign Portfolio Investor. Policymakers of any country are concerned about foreign equity investors because they can withdraw their capital from a country rapidly and hence affect the stability of stock markets in the country. The present paper carries the objective of examining the influence of foreign portfolio investor trading behavior on the stock markets of India. Various models of GARCH have been used to examine the impact and coefficients were found to be significant in all the cases. Hence the paper suggests the government and economists should design and control suitable foreign investments policies for the Indian Stock markets.

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