scholarly journals Halifax Harbour extreme water levels in the context of climate change: scenarios for a 100-year planning horizon

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
D L Forbes ◽  
G K Manson ◽  
J Charles ◽  
K R Thompson ◽  
R B Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Planning Horizon ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Extreme Water Levels

scholarly journals Severe Drought in Finland: Modeling Effects on Water Resources and Assessing Climate Change Impacts

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 2450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noora Veijalainen ◽  
Lauri Ahopelto ◽  
Mika Marttunen ◽  
Jaakko Jääskeläinen ◽  
Ritva Britschgi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
The Impact

Severe droughts cause substantial damage to different socio-economic sectors, and even Finland, which has abundant water resources, is not immune to their impacts. To assess the implications of a severe drought in Finland, we carried out a national scale drought impact analysis. Firstly, we simulated water levels and discharges during the severe drought of 1939–1942 (the reference drought) in present-day Finland with a hydrological model. Secondly, we estimated how climate change would alter droughts. Thirdly, we assessed the impact of drought on key water use sectors, with a focus on hydropower and water supply. The results indicate that the long-lasting reference drought caused the discharges to decrease at most by 80% compared to the average annual minimum discharges. The water levels generally fell to the lowest levels in the largest lakes in Central and South-Eastern Finland. Climate change scenarios project on average a small decrease in the lowest water levels during droughts. Severe drought would have a significant impact on water-related sectors, reducing water supply and hydropower production. In this way drought is a risk multiplier for the water–energy–food security nexus. We suggest that the resilience to droughts could be improved with region-specific drought management plans and by including droughts in existing regional preparedness exercises.

scholarly journals Modeling impacts of climate change and human activities on groundwater resources using MODFLOW

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 156-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hossein Malekinezhad ◽  
Fatemeh Barzegai Banadkooki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Irrigation System ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hydraulic Head ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Cropping Patterns ◽  
Aquifer Storage ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract This paper analyzes the impacts of climate change and human pressures on Yazd-Ardakan aquifer using the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HADCM3) circulation Model and A2 emission scenario. Water levels in the study aquifer were simulated using three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater model (MODFLOW 2000) with GMS 8.3 as pre- and postprocessing software. Input for groundwater recharge time series under the climate change scenarios were derived using a regression equation based on the cumulative deviation from mean rainfall using MATLAB. Human pressures on the aquifer were modeled through climate change impacts on water requirements of cultivated areas. Three scenarios were simulated to represent the effects of climate change and human pressures on aquifer storage and hydraulic head. Climate change and human pressures (scenario 1) will reduce aquifer storage and result in decreasing hydraulic head by −0.56 m year−1. Reduction in pumping water under scenario 2 (irrigation system modification) and scenario 3 (irrigation system modification and cropping patterns) will result in groundwater level fluctuation of about −0.32 and 0.08 m year−1, respectively. Scenario 3 is capable of restoring and protecting the groundwater resources in Yazd-Ardakan aquifer. The results of this study are useful to obtain sustainable groundwater management in Yazd-Ardakan aquifer.

scholarly journals Assessing the extreme risk of coastal inundation due to climate change: A case study of Rongcheng, China

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aiqing Feng ◽  
Jiangbo Gao ◽  
Shaohong Wu ◽  
Yanzhong Li ◽  
Xiliu Yue
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Extreme Water Levels ◽  
Extreme Risk ◽  
Extreme Flood

Abstract. Extreme water levels, caused by the joint occurrence of storm surges and high tides, always lead to super floods along coastlines. Given the ongoing climate change, this study explored the risk of future sea-level rise on the extreme inundation by combining P-III model and losses assessment model. Taking Rongcheng as a case study, the integrated risk of extreme water levels was assessed for 2050 and 2100 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios of 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Results indicated that the increase in total direct losses would reach an average of 60 % in 2100 as a 0.82 m sea-level rise under RCP 8.5. In addition, affected population would be increased by 4.95 % to 13.87 % and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) would be increased by 3.66 % to 10.95 % in 2050 while the augment of affected population and GDP in 2100 would be as twice as in 2050. Residential land and farmland would be under greater flooding risk in terms of the higher exposure and losses than other land-use types. Moreover, this study indicated that sea-level rise shortened the recurrence period of extreme water levels significantly and extreme events would become common. Consequently, the increase in frequency and possible losses of extreme flood events suggested that sea-level rise was very likely to exacerbate the extreme risk of coastal zone in future.

scholarly journals The Role of Beach Morphology and Mid-Century Climate Change Effects on Wave Runup and Storm Impact on the Northern Yucatan Coast

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 518
Author(s):  
Gabriela Medellín ◽  
Martí Mayor ◽  
Christian M. Appendini ◽  
Ruth Cerezo-Mota ◽  
José A. Jiménez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Transformation Model ◽  
Wave Runup ◽  
Beach Morphology ◽  
Extreme Water Levels ◽  
Storm Impact ◽  
Wave Conditions

Wave runup is a relevant parameter to determine the storm impact on barrier islands. Here, the role of the beach morphology on wave runup and storm impact was investigated at four coastal communities located on the northern Yucatan coast. Current wave conditions based on regional wind simulations, topo-bathymetric transects measured at each location, and a nonlinear wave transformation model were employed to reconstruct multi-year runup time series. Dune morphology features and extreme water levels (excluding storm surge contributions) were further employed to determine the storm impact at each site for different return periods. Despite the similar offshore conditions along the coast, extreme water levels (i.e., runup and setup) showed intersite differences that were mainly ascribed to subaerial and submerged morphological features. Numerical results showed that the average surf zone beach slope, sandbars, berm, and dune elevation played an important role in controlling extreme water levels and storm impact at the study sites under the present climate. Moreover, in order to assess the potential effect of climate change on coastal flooding, we analyzed wave runup and storm impact in the best-preserved site by considering wave conditions and sea level rise (SLR) projections under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Modelling results suggest no significant increase in the storm impact regime between the present and future conditions in the study area unless SLR is considered. It was found that to accurately estimate SLR contribution, it should be incorporated into mean sea level prior to performing numerical wave runup simulations, rather than simply adding it to the resulting wave-induced water levels.

scholarly journals Projecting the future of Ayapel Cienaga: A hydroecologic analysis under climate change scenarios

2019 ◽  
pp. 73-87
Author(s):  
Juan Pablo Serna-López ◽  
Julio Eduardo Cañon-Barriga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Aquatic Macrophytes ◽  
Gold Mining ◽  
Fish Population ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Activity Temperature ◽  
Systems Models ◽  
Dynamic Population

We developed a three-component model to evaluate the present and future hydrological behavior of Ayapel Cienaga under different scenarios of climate variability and human intervention associated with fishing and mining activities and the maintenance of levees. We calibrated the water balance with historical information on hydrological variables, water levels, stream discharges, fishing activities and gold mining records in the period 1985-2015. We use autoregressive statistical models to project climate scenarios that consider extreme variations in mean monthly rainfall, ENSO activity, temperature increases of 2°C, and levee breaks along the Cauca River. In addition, we incorporated two dynamic of systems models of bocachico fish population and mercury accumulation in the Cienaga. The simulations indicate that the Cienaga levels can be affected by extreme changes in rainfall associated with ENSO. The model estimates the fraction of water that could enter from the Cauca River due to levee breaks. Furthermore, using a fish dynamic population we could project the population and catch of bocachico. Finally, the mercury balance model due to mining in the region help to estimate mercury concentrations in water, fish and aquatic macrophytes matrices. This model offers a tool for management and decision-making in ecohydrological aspects of the Cienaga under different climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF A COASTAL DIKE AND DUNE SYSTEM AT THE SOUTH OF FALSTER, DENMARK

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (33) ◽  
pp. 59
Author(s):  
Andreas Kortenhaus ◽  
David Schürenkamp ◽  
Thorsten Piontkowitz ◽  
Hocine Oumeraci
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Reliability Assessment ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The South ◽  
Dune System ◽  
Dune Erosion ◽  
Wave Data ◽  
Run Up

The ‘Falster dike’ is a system of a coastal vegetated dunes with a grass-covered sand dike protecting a low-lying area of about 7,000 summer houses, many of which being inhabited during winter, and therefore in danger of any storm surge induced flooding. The paper discusses (i) the assessment and uncertainties of relevant data such as bathymetry, topography, wind and wave data, water levels; (ii) deterministic calculations of wave run-up and overtopping of the dike without dunes; (iii) the calculations of dune erosion; and (iv) a reliability assessment of a dune and dike system. Results suggest that the dunes in front of the dikes lead to a significantly increased safety of the flood defences and will therefore withstand present and future conditions, including climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Predicting water levels in ephemeral wetlands under climate change scenarios

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 427-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex James ◽  
Rachelle N. Binny ◽  
William G. Lee ◽  
John Payne ◽  
Nick Stringer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ephemeral Wetlands

Simulation of extreme water levels in response to tropical cyclones along the Indian coast: a climate change perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (1) ◽  
pp. 151-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. D. Rao ◽  
Puja Upadhaya ◽  
Smita Pandey ◽  
Jismy Poulose
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Indian Coast ◽  
Extreme Water Levels

scholarly journals Steps towards Modeling Community Resilience under Climate Change: Hazard Model Development

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (7) ◽  
pp. 225
Author(s):  
Kendra M. Dresback ◽  
Christine M. Szpilka ◽  
Xianwu Xue ◽  
Humberto Vergara ◽  
Naiyu Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Community Resilience ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Parametric Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
Hurricane Isabel ◽  
Using Data

With a growing population (over 40%) living in coastal counties within the U.S., there is an increasing risk that coastal communities will be significantly impacted by riverine/coastal flooding and high winds associated with tropical cyclones. Climate change could exacerbate these risks; thus, it would be prudent for coastal communities to plan for resilience in the face of these uncertainties. In order to address all of these risks, a coupled physics-based modeling system has been developed that simulates total water levels. This system uses parametric models for both rainfall and wind, which only require essential information (e.g., track and central pressure) generated by a hurricane model. The system is validated with Hurricane Isabel hindcasts: One using the parametric system and another using data assimilated fields. The results show a good agreement to the available data, indicating that the system is able to adequately capture the hazards using parametric models, as compared to optimized fields. The validated system was then utilized to simulate randomly generated scenarios that account for future uncertainty, i.e., amount of sea level rise and storm strength/track, as influenced by projected climate change scenarios. Results are then used in next step in the development of a system-wide, community resilience model.

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