Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcella Bush Trevino
Keyword(s):  
Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference

Combining temperature rate and level perspectives in emission metrics

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Borgar Aamaas ◽  
Terje K. Berntsen ◽  
Jan S. Fuglestvedt ◽  
Glen P. Peters
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Global Temperature Change ◽  
Temperature Rate ◽  
Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract. The ultimate goal of the United Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is reconfirmed by the Paris Agreement, is to stabilize the climate change at level that prevents dangerous anthropogenic interference, and it should be achieved within a time frame that allow the natural systems to adapt. Numerous emission metrics have been developed and applied in relation to the first target, while very few metrics have focused on the second target regarding rate of change. We present here a simple and analytical physical emission metric based on the rate of global temperature change and link that to a metric based on a target for the temperature level. The rate of change perspective either can supplement the level target or can be considered together in one commitment that needs one combined metric. Both emission metrics depend on assumptions on a temperature baseline scenario. We give some illustrations on how this framework can be used, such as different temperature rate and level constraints based on the Representative Concentration Pathways. The selection of the time horizon, for what time period and length the rate constraint is binding, and how to weight the rate and level metrics are discussed. For a combined metric, the values for short-lived climate forcers are larger in periods where the critical rate is binding, with larger temporal increases during the rate constraint period as the atmospheric perturbation timescale of the species becomes shorter. Global CO2 emissions remain the most important, or among the most important, drivers of temperature rates even during periods of binding rate constraints.

scholarly journals Thailand’s Policy and Law on Atmosphere Management for People’s Welfare: The Fight Against Climate Change

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-153
Author(s):  
Peerapon Jaderojananont
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Global Community ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Greenhouse Gases Emissions ◽  
The Common ◽  
Thai People ◽  
Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference

It is so true that climate change becomes the common concern of humankind which does not adversely affect any individual country only, but its effects also threaten the global community as a whole. As provided by international framework, climate change should be mitigated with the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a safe and appropriate level. Although Thailand is not one of industrialized countries contributed to greenhouse gases emissions, it should take actions to cooperate with those countries to comply with such international framework. This article focuses on exploring and examining Thailand’s policy and law adopted to reduce greenhouse gases emissions in order to prove how Thailand is highly potential to comply and cooperate with the global community. This will reflect the substantial creation of low carbon society in Thailand where Thai people will be finally secured against the dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

scholarly journals Investigate the level of disclosure of emissions of the top ten manufacturing companies in South Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-86
Author(s):  
Anet M. Smit ◽  
Johanna Magdalena van Zyl
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
South African ◽  
Carbon Tax ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Johannesburg Stock Exchange ◽  
Climatic System ◽  
Quantitative Performance ◽  
Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference ◽  
The Impact

Throughout the world, countries and companies are directing their attention towards actions to protect the planet. An important focus area during various initiatives is the aim to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climatic system. Various targets are set by governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the South African Government is, among others, investigating a carbon tax policy to facilitate their transition to a greener economy. This paper analyzes the sustainability reports of the top ten manufacturing companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and the disclosures of emissions were evaluated against a checklist that was developed through a literature review comprising various sources. From the results of the research, it is evident that all the companies reviewed are aware of the importance of emissions disclosure and the impact that emissions have on climate change. Companies, in general, adhere more to the qualitative, narrative type of requirements than to the more quantitative, performance-related reporting of emissions. In this study the reporting of the companies specifically on Scope 3 emissions were inadequate. More attention should be given to measure performance and to improve their systems to quantify data

scholarly journals Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 327-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner ◽  
Tabea K. Lissner ◽  
Erich M. Fischer ◽  
Jan Wohland ◽  
Mahé Perrette ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference ◽  
Agricultural Yields ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 °C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 °C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90 % in 2050 and projected to decline to 70 % by 2100 for a 1.5 °C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9 % to 17 % between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11 %. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in particular high-latitude) regions may benefit, tropical regions like West Africa, South-East Asia, as well as Central and northern South America are projected to face substantial local yield reductions, particularly for wheat and maize. Best estimate sea-level rise projections based on two illustrative scenarios indicate a 50 cm rise by 2100 relative to year 2000-levels for a 2 °C scenario, and about 10 cm lower levels for a 1.5 °C scenario. In a 1.5 °C scenario, the rate of sea-level rise in 2100 would be reduced by about 30 % compared to a 2 °C scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. The article provides a consistent and comprehensive assessment of existing projections and a good basis for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming.

scholarly journals Climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 531-550 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Previdi ◽  
B. G. Liepert ◽  
D. T Peteet ◽  
J. Hansen ◽  
D. J Beerling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Climate Feedbacks ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Ocean Carbon ◽  
Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
Global Surface ◽  
Higher Sensitivity

Abstract. Understanding the sensitivity of Earth's climate to an imposed external forcing is one of the great challenges in science and a critical component of efforts to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Climate sensitivity (or equilibrium global surface warming) to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 has long been estimated to be about 3 °C, considering only fast climate feedbacks associated with increases in water vapor, decreases in sea ice, and changes in clouds. However, evidence from Earth's history suggests that slower surface albedo feedbacks due to vegetation change and melting of Greenland and Antarctica can come into play on the timescales of interest to humans, which could increase the sensitivity to significantly higher values, as much as 6 °C. Even higher sensitivity may result as present-day land and ocean carbon sinks begin to lose their ability to sequester anthropogenic CO2 in the coming decades. The evolving view of climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene is therefore one in which a wider array of Earth system feedbacks are recognized as important. Since these feedbacks are overwhelmingly positive, the sensitivity is likely to be higher than has traditionally been assumed.

A Perfect Moral Storm: Climate Change, Intergenerational Ethics, and the Problem of Moral Corruption

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen M. Gardiner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Complex Problem ◽  
General Level ◽  
Value Judgments ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
Future Aspirations ◽  
Historical Responsibility ◽  
Scientific Report ◽  
Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference ◽  
Intergenerational Ethics

The most authoritative scientific report on climate change begins by saying: . . . Natural, technical, and social sciences can provide essential information and evidence needed for decisions on what constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” At the same time, such decisions are value judgments. . . . There are good grounds for this statement. Climate change is a complex problem raising issues across and between a large number of disciplines, including the physical and life sciences, political science, economics, and psychology, to name just a few. But without wishing for a moment to marginalize the contributions of these disciplines, ethics does seem to play a fundamental role. At the most general level, the reason is that we cannot get very far in discussing why climate change is a problem without invoking ethical considerations. If we do not think that our own actions are open to moral assessment, or that various interests (our own, those of our kin and country, those of distant people, future people, animals, and nature) matter, then it is hard to see why climate change (or much else) poses a problem. But once we see this, then we appear to need some account of moral responsibility, morally important interests, and what to do about both. And this puts us squarely in the domain of ethics. At a more practical level, ethical questions are fundamental to the main policy decisions that must be made, such as where to set a global ceiling for greenhouse-gas emissions and how to distribute the emissions allowed by such a ceiling. For example, where the global ceiling is set depends on how the interests of the current generation are weighed against those of future generations, and how emissions are distributed under the global cap depends in part on various beliefs about the appropriate role of energy consumption in people’s lives, the importance of historical responsibility for the problem, and the current needs and future aspirations of particular societies. The relevance of ethics to substantive climate policy thus seems clear. But this is not the topic that I wish to take up here.

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