scholarly journals Probability distribution of heavy rainfall and determination of IDF in the city of Caruaru – PE

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Kevin Matheus Correia Mendes ◽  
Aline Lima de Oliveira ◽  
Lucas Ravellys Pyrrho de Alcântara ◽  
Adriana Thays Araújo Alves ◽  
Severino Martins dos Santos Neto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Parameters ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
Anderson Darling ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Log Normal ◽  
The City

In the design of hydraulic engineering works, the estimation of project precipitation is fundamental. Rain forecasting depends on several factors, which makes estimating it simpler with stochastic processes. In this sense, the distributions of Gumbel (GUM), Log-Normal two-parameter (LN2P), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Fréchet with two and three parameters (FRE2P and FRE3P), Weibull with two and three parameters (W2P and W3P), Gamma (GAM2P), and Pareto with two and three parameters (PAR2P and PAR3P) were evaluated to the annual maximum daily precipitation (AMDP) adjustment in the city of Caruaru (Pernambuco´s Agreste). A series of AMDP was used, based on data obtained from the National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Águas - ANA). Anderson Darling (AD), Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) and Pearson Chi-square (χ2) adherence tests, and the determination coefficient (R²) were used to assess the adherence quality of the distributions. The Likelihood Method presented a better fit quality than the Moment Method. The GEV distribution obtained the best results for the AD test in both methods to estimate the parameters. Among the adherence tests used, the AD test was considered the most restrictive. To verify the quality parameters’ fitness to the IDF relations, the Willmott performance coefficient was used. For all distributions employed in this study, Willmott performance coefficients presented values above 0.99, giving a perfect fit of IDF relations with determination coefficients close to 1.0.

scholarly journals Modelos probabilísticos para eventos de precipitações extremas na Cidade de Palmares-PE (Probabilistic modeling for extreme rainfall events in the city of Palmares - PE)

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1355
Author(s):  
Lucas Ravellys Pyrrho De Alcântara ◽  
Artur Paiva Coutinho ◽  
Severino Martins Dos Santos Neto ◽  
Tássia Dos Anjos Tenório de Melo ◽  
Larissa Fernandes Costa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Values ◽  
Gumbel Distribution ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
Anderson Darling ◽  
Log Normal ◽  
The City

A estimava da probabilidade de excedência de eventos de precipitações pluviométricas máximas pode ser realizada a partir da associação entre as séries hidrológicas e modelos probabilísticos. O presente trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar a aderência da distribuição empírica de Precipitações Diárias Máximas Anuais (PDMA), as distribuições teóricas de probabilidade de Gumbel, Log-Normal de dois parâmetros, Generalizada de Valores Extremos, Fréchet, Weibull para 2 e 3 parâmetros, Gama, Pearson e Log-Pearson para 3 parâmetros. Foi utilizada uma série histórica de precipitação máxima diária anual oriunda da cidade de Palmares-PE, a partir de dados obtidos da Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA). Para avaliar a qualidade de aderência das distribuições, foram utilizados os testes de aderência de Anderson Darling (AD), Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) e o teste Qui-Quadrado de Pearson (χ2). Para quantificação da qualidade dos ajustes estatísticos utilizou-se do coeficiente de determinação (R2). As distribuições de Fréchet e Weibull II não apresentaram aderência a distribuição empírica de frequência.  A distribuição de Gumbel foi a que apresentou maior aderência à distribuição empírica de acordo com o teste Qui-Quadrado de Pearson (χ2), enquanto que a GVE e a Pearson III aos testes AD e KS, respectivamente.  A B S T R A C TTo analyze and estimate the likelihood of new extreme precipitation events, hydrological data records and probabilistic mathematical modeling can be used associated with different recurrence frequencies. The objective of this study was to adjust the PDMA of the city of Palmares-PE, based on data obtained from the National Water Agency (ANA), the Gumbel probability distributions, Log-Normal of two Parameters, Generalized Extreme Values, Fréchet, Weibull for 2 and 3 parameters, Range, Pearson and Log-Pearson for 3 parameters. In order to evaluate the statistical distributions, the Anderson Darling (AD), Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) and Pearson Chi-Square (χ2) tests were used, and the quantification of the quality of the statistical adjustments was done using coefficient of determination (R2). Among the probabilistic distributions analyzed, the only ones that do not fit are the distributions of FRÉCHET and Weibull II. The Gumbel distribution was the best fit for Pearson Chi-square test (χ2), and GVE and Pearson III, respectively, for the AD and KS tests.Keywords: hydrology statistics, return time, intense rain, extreme events, random variables.

scholarly journals Statistical Analysis of Natural Events in the United States

1991 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Levi ◽  
Christian Partrat
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
The United States ◽  
Normal Model ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Expected Frequency ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
Anderson Darling ◽  
Log Normal

AbstractA statistical analysis is performed on natural events which can produce important damages to insurers. The analysis is based on hurricanes which have been observed in the United States between 1954 et 1986.At first, independence between the number and the amount of the losses is examined. Different distributions (Poisson and negative binomial for frequency and exponential, Pareto and lognormal for severity) are tested. Along classical tests as chi-square, Kolmogorov-Smirnov and non parametric tests, a test with weights on the upper tail of the distribution is used: the Anderson – Darling test.Confidence intervals for the probability of occurrence of a claim and expected frequency for different potential levels of claims are derived. The Poisson Log-normal model gives a very good fit to the data.

scholarly journals Distribuições de probabilidade para séries históricas mensais de pressão atmosférica no município de Mossoró-RN

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 135
Author(s):  
Janilson Pinheiro de Assis ◽  
Roberto Pequeno de Sousa ◽  
Paulo César Ferreira Linhares ◽  
Thiago Alves Pimenta ◽  
Elcimar Lopes da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Pressure ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Probability Density Distribution ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Pearson Type ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
Anderson Darling ◽  
Log Normal ◽  
Von Mises ◽  
Cramer Von Mises

<p>Objetivou-se verificar o ajuste de 12 séries históricas de pressão atmosférica mensal (milibar) no período de 1970 a2007, em Mossoró, RN, à sete modelos de distribuição densidade de probabilidade Normal, Log-Normal, Beta, Gama, Log-Pearson (Tipo III), Gumbel e Weibull, através dos testes Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Qui-Quadrado, Cramer Von-Mises, Anderson Darling e Kuiper a 10 % de probabilidade e utilizando-se o Logaritmo da Máxima Verossimilhança. Verificou-se a superioridade do ajustamento da distribuição de probabilidade Normal, quando comparada com as outras seis distribuições. No geral, os critérios de ajuste concordaram com a aceitação da hipótese H<sub>0</sub>, no entanto, deve-se salientar que o teste de Kolmogorov-Smirnov apresenta um nível de aprovação de uma distribuição sob teste muito elevado, gerando insegurança aos critérios do teste, porém, como neste estudo os dados são aproximadamente simétricos, esse é o mais recomendado.</p><p align="center"><strong><em>Probability distributions for historic series of monthly atmospheric pressure </em></strong><strong><em>in city</em></strong><strong><em> of Mossoró-RN</em></strong></p><p><strong>Abstract</strong><strong>: </strong>The aim of this study was to determine the set of 12 time series of monthly atmospheric pressure (millibars) in the period 1970-2007, in Natal, RN, the seven models of the probability density distribution Normal, Log-Normal, Beta, Gamma, Log -Pearson (Type III), Gumbel and Weibull, through the Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, Chi-Square, Cramer-von Mises, Anderson Darling and Kuiper 10 probability and using the logarithm of the maximum likelihood. It is the superiority of adjusting the normal probability distribution compared to the other six distributions. Overall, the fit criteria agreed with the acceptance of the hypothesis, however, it should be noted that the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test shows a level of approval of a distribution under test very high, which creates some uncertainty to the criteria of test, but in this study as the data are roughly symmetrical it is the most recommended.</p>

scholarly journals Determination of Pollution Loads in Spillways of the Combined Sewage Network of the City of Cuenca, Ecuador

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2540 ◽  
Author(s):  
César Montalvo-Cedillo ◽  
Rubén Jerves-Cobo ◽  
Luis Domínguez-Granda
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Quality Parameters ◽  
Complete Analysis ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Rainy Period ◽  
Maximum Conductivity ◽  
Sanitation Systems ◽  
The City

Combined sewer overflow (CSO) is one of the main causes of contamination in receiving bodies during the rainy period. The objective of this research was to evaluate the behavior of three combined sewage discharges into the Tomebamba River in the city of Cuenca, Ecuador. For this, the registration of 18 CSO events was carried out. The following water quality parameters were analyzed from the field survey (March 2017 to May 2018): conductivity, turbidity, BOD5, COD, fecal and total coliforms, nitrates, nitrites, ammoniacal nitrogen, dissolved orthophosphate and total phosphorus. The results show that CSOs contribute to the deterioration of the water quality of the Tomebamba River during the rainy season. The analysis of the dynamics of the pollutants determined that the maximum conductivity values occur at the beginning of the discharge, and the maximum turbidity is located near the peak discharge flow. The relationship between rain and the characteristics of the CSO was also analyzed through a canonical correlation analysis and partial least squares regression, obtaining a prediction model of pollutants based on the precipitation parameters. These results can be used for the implementation of integrated ecological models that enable a complete analysis of the city’s sanitation systems, their impact on the receiving bodies and their restoration.

scholarly journals DETERMINAÇÃO DA CURVA DE INTENSIDADE, DURAÇÃO E FREQUÊNCIA DO MUNICÍPIO DE IPAMERI – GOIÁS

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Carneiro Pereira ◽  
Letícia Rodrigues Duarte ◽  
Antover Panazzolo Sarmento
Keyword(s):  
Gumbel Distribution ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Reduced Gradient Method ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
Anderson Darling ◽  
Heavy Rains

RESUMO: A caracterização das chuvas intensas para utilização em projetos de engenharia é fundamental, especificadamente no que tange à obras hidráulicas. O estudo das chuvas intensas é feito por meio da relação entre a intensidade, a duração e a frequência das mesmas. Este artigo trata da determinação de tais relações para o município de Ipameri, Goiás, devido à falta de estudos relacionados a esta localidade. Foi feito o ajustamento à distribuição estatística de Gumbel de forma a obter os valores de precipitação máxima para os períodos de retorno de 2, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 50 e 100 anos. Para verificação do ajuste dos dados observados a distribuição de Gumbel, realizou-se os testes de aderência de Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling e Qui-Quadrado, ao nível de significância de 1%. A desagregação dos valores de precipitação máxima em durações menores que 24 horas foi feita utilizando o método das Relações de Durações. Os parâmetros K (881,7487), a (0,1333), b (10,5332) e c (0,7519) da equação de chuvas intensas foram obtidos utilizando o método do Gradiente Reduzido Generalizado. Para avaliação da equação obtida foi utilizado o coeficiente de determinação (R²), o índice de concordância de Willmott (d) e índice de confiança (Ic), com resultados respectivos de 0,9986, 0,9997 e 0,9990. Assim esta pesquisa contribuiu para a determinação da equação de chuvas intensas, permitindo seu uso no dimensionamento de estruturas hidráulicas do local.ABSTRACT: Heavy rains characterization for use in engineering design projects is essential, specifically with regard to the hydrological researches and structures. In this way the study of heavy rains is done relating the intensity, duration and frequency of the events. This paper deals with the determination of such relations for the city of Ipameri, Goiás - Brazil, due to lack of studies related to the municipality. Adjusting the statistical Gumbel distribution in order to obtain maximum precipitation values for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 50 and 100 years is made. To check the adjustment of the data observed distribution of Gumbel, we held the adherence tests (Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling and Chi-Square) at a significance level of 1%. The disaggregation of the maximum precipitation values in smaller duration than 24 hours were made using the method of durations relations. The parameters K (881.7487), a (0.1333), b (10.5332) and c (0.7519) of equation heavy rains were obtained using the Generalized Reduced Gradient method. To validate the obtained equation was used the coefficient of determination (R²), the concordance index of Willmott (d) and confidence index (Ic) with the results of 0.9986, 0.9997 and 0.9990. Thus, this research contributes to the determination of the intense rainfall equation, allowing its use in the design of local hydraulic structures.

scholarly journals Fiduciary Agreement Implementation in Car Credit Agreement on Financing Institutions of Mandiri Finance of Cirebon Based on Act No. 42 of 199 About Fiduciary

Jurnal Akta ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 655
Author(s):  
Ardiansyah Alrawi ◽  
Gunarto Gunarto
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Legal Protection ◽  
The Public ◽  
Legal Development ◽  
Freedom Of Contract ◽  
Legal Effect ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Credit Agreement ◽  
The City

The emergence of various institutions today's economy helped spur the economy of the community. But unfortunately the growth of the economic institutions are not supported by an adequate legal development. The presence of various financial institutions helped bring a major role in economic development of society, especially the poor. These financial institutions emerged as a form of providing funds or capital goods for the public to purchase goods on payment in installments or periodically by consumers. Construction consumer finance based on an agreement with the principle of freedom of contract as legal bases for both parties. In practice financing undertaken by financial institutions poured in the form of a credit agreement. In each of providing credit to their customers finance institutions always face a risk, therefore the customer's business situation and developments to be followed continuously starts the moment the credit is given to the loan. As for giving legal protection to the parties in the process of providing collateral (guarantee), then one of them is with the enactment of Law Fiduciary. Implementation of lending followed by a fiduciary assurance processes at financial institutions in the city of Cirebon most important is the legal effect if the Borrower defaults which are expected to creditors (financial institutions) can be easily exercised fiduciary object. Constraints faced in a fiduciary guarantee is as follows: a. Any cost of making a deed by the Borrower felt heavy, incomplete b. Any requirements of the Borrower to elaborate on the type, brand and quality of the fiduciary object, c. The office registration still limited fiduciary, fiduciary registration e. The office could not provide information on everything about the guarantee with the issuance.Keywords: Financing Institution, Credit Agreements, Fiduciary.

scholarly journals HUBUNGAN KEHILANGAN GIGI DENGAN STATUS GIZI DAN KUALITAS HIDUP PADA PERKUMPULAN LANSIA DI DESA PENATAHAN KECAMATAN PENEBEL TABANAN

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 145
Author(s):  
A.A Gde Wirasantika Adhiatman, Sari Kusumadewi, Putu Adiartha Griadhi
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Nutritional Status ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Total Sample ◽  
Poor Quality ◽  
Oral Disease ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
Relationship Of

Background: Health practitioners around the world are now dealing withincreasing health problems, including oral disease. One of them is tooth loss.Losing teeth can cause problems or disturbances in the main functions of teeth(mastication, aesthetics and phonetics). These conditions can be overcome byusing denture. If the loss of untreated teeth doesn�t restored using denture, it will cause the function of the missing tooth can not be restored, which will result in disruption of nutritional status and quality of life of the elderly. This study aimed to determine the relationship of tooth loss with nutritional status in elderly society in the Penatahan village Penebel Tabanan.Methods: The research was an observational analytic study with cross sectionalresearch design. Total sampling used with total sample 109 people. The datawere collected by filling the dental chart, measuring IMT and interview using theOHIP-14 questionnaire.Results: The results showed 65.1% respondents had loss <6 teeth, 42.2%respondents had obesity, 75.2% respondents observed poor quality of life. Dataanalyzed using kolmogorov smirnov obtained p = 0,952 for relationship betweentooth loss with nuturional status and p = 0.676 for relationship between useof denture with nutritional status. Chi square used to test relationship betweentooth loss with quality of life (p= 0,735) and use of denture with quality of lifeshowed p = 0,139.Conclusions: The conclusion is there is no relationship between tooth lossand use of denture with nutritional status and quality of life in elderly society inPenatahan Village Penebel Tabanan

scholarly journals Impact of Changes in Land Use and Land Cover in the Contribution Basin of Doutor João Penido Water Supply Reservoir of Juiz de Fora, MG, Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 108
Author(s):  
Juliana Nazareth de Lana ◽  
Márcio de Oliveira ◽  
Vanessa Romario de Paula ◽  
Cézar Henrique Barra Rocha
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Quality Parameters ◽  
E Coli ◽  
The City ◽  
Water Supply Reservoirs ◽  
Limnological Parameters

Changes in the land use and land cover in areas adjacent to water reservoirs directly affect the quality of this water. This research presents a study on the water quality in the basin of one of the most important public water supply reservoirs in the city of Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais. The main objective of this study was to analyze the behavior of limnological parameters and the correlation with land use and land cover in the contribution basin of the Doutor Jo&atilde;o Penido reservoir (CBJPR). The methodology was based on the analysis of water quality parameters, related to water samples collected from 2012 to 2015. Six sampling points were chosen from different locations: spring, medium course, main tributaries of the reservoir and the reservoir catchment. The parameters analyzed were turbidity, total solids (TS), oxygen consumed (OC), dissolved oxygen (DO), electrical conductivity, total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), E. Coli, temperature, pH and total dissolved solids (TDS). The Kendall&rsquo;s tau test was used to analyze the correlations between the parameters of water quality, land use and land cover in the CBJPR. In general, measured parameters showed better results in spring and in reservoir catchment, showing a worse quality of the water along the tributaries and the dilution power of the reservoir. The correlations pointed to the need for protection and preservation of forests in strategic locations to ensure good water quality.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Kompetensi dan Kegiatan Komite Audit terhadap Kualitas Audit

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-36
Author(s):  
Dayu Swispa Pamantau
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Audit Committee ◽  
Audit Quality ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
High Competence ◽  
The City ◽  
A Company

The accuracy of the determination of policies within a company is determined by the quality of the resulting audit by the auditor. Audit quality will be higher when the auditor assigned to have high competence in the field of audit, in addition to the quality of the audit will be better if the activities of the audit committee to provide oversight of internal party activities. Therefore, this study purpose to determine the effect of the competence and activities of the audit committee on audit quality. The study was conducted at the KAP region of the city of Padang and Pekanbaru. The sample used was 43 respondents. The analysis method used is to use multiple linear regression models. Based on the results of hypothesis testing results found that the competence and activities of the audit committee have a significant effect on audit quality auditors working in KAP of Padang and Pekanbaru city.

scholarly journals Estimating the Best-Fitted Probability Distribution for Monthly Maximum Temperature at the Sylhet Station in Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 60-67
Author(s):  
Rashidul Hasan Rashidul Hasan
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Tests ◽  
Anderson Darling ◽  
Log Normal

The estimation of a suitable probability model depends mainly on the features of available temperature data at a particular place. As a result, existing probability distributions must be evaluated to establish an appropriate probability model that can deliver precise temperature estimation. The study intended to estimate the best-fitted probability model for the monthly maximum temperature at the Sylhet station in Bangladesh from January 2002 to December 2012 using several statistical analyses. Ten continuous probability distributions such as Exponential, Gamma, Log-Gamma, Beta, Normal, Log-Normal, Erlang, Power Function, Rayleigh, and Weibull distributions were fitted for these tasks using the maximum likelihood technique. To determine the model’s fit to the temperature data, several goodness-of-fit tests were applied, including the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson-Darling test, and Chi-square test. The Beta distribution is found to be the best-fitted probability distribution based on the largest overall score derived from three specified goodness-of-fit tests for the monthly maximum temperature data at the Sylhet station.

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