Climate change scenarios and their impact on the water balance of sugarcane production areas in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract In this paper, we analyze secondary data from surveys focusing on climate change and adaptation in Sao Paulo municipalities. The survey was completed by municipal actors who work in 332 of the 645 municipalities in the State. In this paper, we use a theoretical framework on urban climate governance, which highlights the role that local governments play in proposing strategies to deal with climate change, to present and discuss data related to: 1) the occurrence of extreme climatic events in these municipalities; 2) the impacts of these events; 3) local government actors’ perception about climate change; and 4) local actions and responses. Our analysis of these data significantly contributes to better understanding how cities in the most populous and economically developed state in Brazil perceive, respond and deal with climate change and what critical challenges hamper climate adaptation in these cities.

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Assessing Water Security in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region Under Projected Climate Change

10.5194/hess-2019-134 ◽

2019 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Gabriela C. Gesualdo ◽

Paulo Tarso S. Oliveira ◽

Dulce B. B. Rodrigues ◽

Hoshin V. Gupta

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Availability ◽

Water Scarcity ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

Water Security ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

Metropolitan Region ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

São Paulo ◽

Increased Risk

Abstract. Climate change affects the global water cycle and has the potential to alter water availability for food-energy-water production, and for ecosystems services, on regional and local scales. An understanding these effects is crucial to assessing future water availability, and for the development of sustainable management plans. Here, we investigate the influence of anticipated climate change on water security in the Jaguari Basin, which is the main source of freshwater for 9 million people in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region (SPMR). First, we calibrate and evaluate a hydrological model using daily observed data, obtaining satisfactory Coefficient of Determination and Kling-Gupta efficiency values for both periods. To represent possible climate change scenarios up to 2095, we consider two International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and use an ensemble of future projections generated by 17 General Circulation Models (GCMs). These data were used to drive the hydrological model to generate projected scenarios of streamflow. Then we used indicators of water scarcity and vulnerability to carry out a quantitative analysis of provision probability. Our results indicate that streamflow can be expected to exhibit increased interannual variability, significant increases in flow rate between January and March, and an extension of the dry season (currently June to September) until November. The latter includes more than 35 % reduction in streamflow during September through November (with > 50 % reduction in October). Our findings indicate an increased risk of floods and droughts accompanied by an expansion of the basin critical period, and our analysis of the Water Security Indices identifies October and November as the most vulnerable months. Overall, our analysis exposes the fragility of water security in the Sao Paulo metropolitan region, and provides valuable technical and scientific information that can be used to guide regional plans and strategies to cope with potential future water scarcity.

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GENERALIZED ADDITIVE MIXED MODELS WITH P-SPLINES APPLIED TO SUGARCANE PRODUCTION IN THE STATE OF SÃO PAULO

REVISTA BRASILEIRA DE BIOMETRIA ◽

10.28951/rbb.v37i1.339 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 37 (1) ◽

pp. 17

Author(s):

Natalie Verónika Rondinel MENDOZA ◽

Sônia Maria De Stefano PIEDADE

Keyword(s):

Mixed Models ◽

Autoregressive Process ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

The State ◽

São Paulo ◽

Sugarcane Production ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Fixed And Random Effects ◽

Generalized Additive Mixed Models ◽

Additive Mixed Models

In this paper, we apply the generalized additive mixed models with the use of the P-\textit{splines} technique as mixed models, which will be adopted in a problem of the agro-environmental area, in this case on the average levels of sugarcane production, which is influenced by changes in climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation which were measured over 10 years in each mesoregion of the state of São Paulo. The reason for using this approach as a smoothing method is that the tendency of these climate covariates is not known on its most, but it is known that they directly influence the response variable. Besides allowing for the inclusion of fixed and random effects in the models to be proposed, these models allow for the inclusion of an autoregressive process AR(1) as a correlation structure in the residuals.

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Climate change and future scenarios for palisade grass production in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira ◽

10.1590/s0100-204x2014001000001 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 49 (10) ◽

pp. 745-753 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

André Santana Andrade ◽

Patricia Menezes Santos ◽

José Ricardo Macedo Pezzopane ◽

Giovana Maranhão Bettiol ◽

Sílvio Roberto Medeiros Evangelista

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Dry Matter ◽

Attenuation Factor ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

The State ◽

Dry Matter Accumulation ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

São Paulo

The objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low). Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality) and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (<10% to >60%). Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.

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Assessing water security in the São Paulo metropolitan region under projected climate change

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-23-4955-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 23 (12) ◽

pp. 4955-4968 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo ◽

Paulo Tarso Oliveira ◽

Dulce Buchala Bicca Rodrigues ◽

Hoshin Vijai Gupta

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Availability ◽

Water Scarcity ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

Water Security ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

Metropolitan Region ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

São Paulo ◽

Increased Risk

Abstract. Climate change affects the global water cycle and has the potential to alter water availability for food–energy–water production, and for ecosystems services, on regional and local scales. An understanding of these effects is crucial for assessing future water availability, and for the development of sustainable management plans. Here, we investigate the influence of anticipated climate change on water security in the Jaguari Basin, which is the main source of freshwater for 9 million people in the São Paulo metropolitan region (SPMR). First, we calibrate and evaluate a hydrological model using daily observed data, obtaining satisfactory coefficient of determination and Kling–Gupta efficiency values for both periods. To represent possible climate change scenarios up to 2095, we consider two International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and use an ensemble of future projections generated by 17 general circulation models (GCMs). These data were used to drive the hydrological model to generate projected scenarios of streamflow. We then used indicators of water scarcity and vulnerability to carry out a quantitative analysis of provision probability. Our results indicate that streamflow can be expected to exhibit increased interannual variability, significant increases in flow rate between January and March, and a 2-month extension of the hydrological dry season (currently June to September) until November. The latter includes a more than a 35 % reduction in streamflow during September through November (with a > 50 % reduction in October). Our findings indicate an increased risk of floods and droughts accompanied by an expansion of the basin critical period, and our analysis of the water security indices identifies October and November as the most vulnerable months. Overall, our analysis exposes the fragility of water security in the São Paulo metropolitan region, and provides valuable technical and scientific information that can be used to guide regional plans and strategies to cope with potential future water scarcity.

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Aptitude of areas planned for sugarcane cultivation expansion in the state of São Paulo, Brazil: a study based on climate change effects

Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment ◽

10.1016/j.agee.2020.107164 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 305 ◽

pp. 107164

Author(s):

Greicelene Jesus da Silva ◽

Elisa Couto Berg ◽

Maria Lúcia Calijuri ◽

Vitor Juste dos Santos ◽

Juliana Ferreira Lorentz ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

The State ◽

São Paulo ◽

Climate Change Effects

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Analysis of Regression and Correlation on Production of Sugarcane in the States of Paraná, São Paulo and Minas Gerais, Brazil

Journal of Experimental Agriculture International ◽

10.9734/jeai/2019/v36i530246 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 1-8

Author(s):

Noélle Khristinne Cordeiro ◽

Dablieny Hellen Garcia Souza ◽

Daiane Bernardi ◽

Kerolém Prícila Sousa Cardoso ◽

Norma Schlickmann Lazaretti ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Minas Gerais ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

The State ◽

São Paulo ◽

State University ◽

Sugarcane Production ◽

Historical Series ◽

National Production ◽

Year 2000 ◽

Sugarcane Industry

Brazil is one of the world's largest producers of sugarcane. Studies considering the production of a culture in informatic function of time allow to verify the behavior of it in a certain homologated. The aims of this work were to analyze the production of the states of Paraná, São Paulo and Minas Gerais, as well as the national production of sugarcane crops, based on statistical tools of regression analysis, and correlation. Sugar cane production data were collected from the Sugarcane Industry Union (UNICA). The work was done in the State University of Western Paraná, Post-Graduation in Agronomy, between July 2018 and December 2018. The data used were obtained from various institutions and, made available by the Sugarcane Industry Union (UNICA), constituting a historical series of 1980/81 to 2016/17. The regression models that best fit the states of Paraná and São Paulo were the linear model, with correlation equal to 0.9711 and 0.9934 respectively, while for Minas Gerais was the quadratic, with 0.9708 of correlation with the national production. The results obtained showed a greater similarity of the behavior of the production of São Paulo with the national, evidencing its importance in participating in the sugarcane agroindustry sector. Based on the regression and correlation analyses obtained, it was found that the state of Paraná and São Paulo obtained a behavior of sugarcane production like that of the national. In the sugarcane production of the state of Minas Gerais, the growth was observed only from the year 2000. Thus, it is concluded that the productions from the states of São Paulo and Paraná contributed more significantly to the national production of sugarcane in relation to the production of the state of Minas Gerais.

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Promoting Ecosystems Conservation and Community-Based Economic Alternatives in a Changing Climate

Environmental Impacts of Tourism in Developing Nations - Advances in Hospitality, Tourism, and the Services Industry ◽

10.4018/978-1-5225-5843-9.ch005 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 85-102

Author(s):

Joana Salgueiro ◽

José Guilherme Moreira Simões Vieira ◽

Fátima Alves ◽

Amadeu M. V. M. Soares ◽

Ulisses Miranda Azeiteiro ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Higher Education ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

The State ◽

Local Economy ◽

São Paulo ◽

Tertiary Sector ◽

Community Based ◽

Lack Of Information ◽

The Impact

Cananéia is the southernmost city in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. It is a municipality where the tertiary sector is the main contributor to the economy parallel to the maintenance of artisanal fishing activities. The authors perform a study on the impact of tourism in the municipality area (performed through surveys in an attempt to determine how the different population segments [residents, promoters, users] see the activity and its impacts on nature and on the local economy). The majority of tourists surveyed come from the state of São Paulo (83.3%) and the rest of Santa Catarina and Paraná, with ages from 19-25 (36.7%) (70% having higher education). 43.3% of the inquired stated that tourism is not correctly managed (however without relevant environmental impacts). 93.3% of the boaters and 66.7% of the interviewed referred lack of information about the sites ecology and the drivers of change of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and climate change. Questionnaires results clearly demonstrated the need for visitor information and interpretation envisaging sustainable tourism implementation.

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