Climatic Variability and Human Leptospirosis Cases in Cartagena, Colombia: A 10-Year Ecological Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eder Cano-Pérez ◽  
Steev Loyola ◽  
Fabián Espitia-Almeida ◽  
Jaison Torres-Pacheco ◽  
Dacia Malambo-García ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Human Leptospirosis ◽  
Minimum Relative Humidity ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Cartagena De Indias ◽  
Public Datasets ◽  
Tropical Climates

Leptospirosis is an acute febrile disease that mainly affects developing countries with tropical climates. The complexity and magnitude of this disease is attributed to socioeconomic, climatic, and environmental conditions. In this study, in a 10-year period from 2008 to 2017, the relationship between human leptospirosis cases and climatic factors in Cartagena de Indias, Colombia were evaluated. Monthly leptospirosis cases, climatic variables, and macroclimatic phenomena (El Niño and La Niña) were obtained from public datasets. Local climatic factors included temperature (maximum, average, and minimum), relative humidity, precipitation, and the number of precipitation days. Time series graphs were drawn and correlations between cases of leptospirosis and climatic variables considering lags from 0 to 10 months were examined. A total of 360 cases of leptospirosis were reported in Cartagena during the study period, of which 192 (53.3%) were systematically notified between October and December. Several correlations were detected between the number of cases, local climatic variables, and macroclimatic phenomena. Mainly, the increase of cases correlated with increased precipitation and humidity during the La Niña periods. Herein, seasonal patterns and correlations suggest that the climate in Cartagena could favor the incidence of leptospirosis. Our findings suggest that prevention and control of human leptospirosis in Cartagena should be promoted and strengthened, especially in the last quarter of the year.

scholarly journals La influencia de la descarga del Canal del Dique en los niveles del mar de la Bahía de Cartagena-Colombia

2012 ◽  
pp. 13-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Molares ◽  
Marc Mestres
Keyword(s):  
La Niña ◽  
Ocean Modelling ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Cartagena De Indias ◽  
Modelling System

El incremento en los eventos de inundaciones no relacionados con marejadas es frecuente en Cartagena de Indias, Colombia, durante los meses de octubre y noviembre. Esta situación pone en riesgo las inversiones realizadas por la Administración Municipal y por la empresa privada, en torno a la infraestructura turística alrededor de la bahía, pues parte de su economía giran alrededor de actividades turísticas y marítimas. Los eventos de inundación podrían relacionarse con la descarga de agua dulce del Canal del Dique en la Bahía de Cartagena, teniendo en cuenta que el nivel del mar en la bahía muestra una fluctuación anual similar a la del caudal de la descarga del Canal del Dique, el cual está relacionado con el régimen de precipitación en el área. Con el propósito de determinar los efectos de la descarga del Canal en el nivel del mar en la bahía, se aplica el modelo ROMS_AGRIF (Regional Ocean Modelling System), comparando escenarios de años de alta precipitación (1988–Evento ‘La Niña’) con años regulares (1990). Los resultados muestran una anomalía en el nivel del mar en la costa noreste de la bahía en cerca de +2 cm durante la época de lluvias, para los años con lluvias promedio; mientras que éste aumenta (+3 cm) durante años con alta precipitación. Considerando un escenario extremo y asumiendo un caudal de descarga mayor que el presentado en años con descarga extrema (La Niña), se sugiere que no se producen altos impactos en el nivel del mar de la Bahía de Cartagena. Considerando el aumento del nivel del mar en la Bahía de Cartagena reportado por varios autores, entre 4,5 y 5,98 mm/año, las autoridades deberán tomar las decisiones necesarias para proteger la ciudad de la inundación. Los resultados presentados aquí revelan que, aunque el manejo y control de la descarga del Canal del Dique durante la estación de lluvias podría llevar a una pequeña reducción del nivel del mar en la costa noreste de la bahía, esa medida no representa un avance importante y una solución a largo plazo.

scholarly journals Análise Das Séries Temporais De Precipitação Do Semiárido Paraibano Em Um Período De 100 Anos - 1911 A 2010 (Analysis Of The Time Series Of Precipitation Of The Paraiba Semi Arid In A Period Of 100 Years - 1911 To 2010)

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 680
Author(s):  
Milla Nobrega de Menezes Costa ◽  
Carmem Terezinha Becker ◽  
José Ivaldo Barbosa de Brito
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
The State ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Average Rainfall ◽  
Semi Arid

O estado da Paraíba apresenta cerca de 76% do seu território abrangido pela região semiárida do Nordeste brasileiro, incluindo 170 dos 223 municípios, dentre estes, estão os municípios de Antenor Navarro atual São João do Rio do Peixe, Princesa Isabel, Catolé do Rocha e Soledade que se sobressaem como importantes polos agrícolas e econômicos do estado, e que frequentemente são afetados pela alta variabilidade climática. Neste trabalho, foi analisado para estes 4 municípios a distribuição pluviométrica num período de cem anos (de 1911 até o ano de 2010) verificando as variações e/ou tendências nas suas séries temporais e investigando se existe uma relação entre a Oscilação Decenal do Pacífico (ODP) com a pluviometria anual das 4 localidades. A partir dos resultados obtidos, verificou-se que São João do Rio do Peixe tem a maior média pluviométrica, porém a tendência de sua série temporal apresentando-se negativa, em contraposto aos outros municípios que apresentaram médias pluviométricas menores, porém com tendências positivas. A investigação da influência da ODP na precipitação anual normalizada das séries analisadas mostrou que uma parcela da ODP influência na variabilidade pluviométrica, porém depende da sua intensidade e de outros fatores tais como o dipolo do Atlântico Tropical e eventos de El Niño/La Niña, indicando que maiores investigações devem ser feitas. A B S T R A C T The state of Paraíba has about 76% of its territory covered by the semi-arid region of Northeast Brazil, including 170 of the 223 municipalities, among these are the municipalities of Antenor Navarro current São João do Rio do Peixe, Princesa Isabel, Soledade and Catolé that stand out as important agricultural and economic centers of the state, which are often affected by high climatic variability. This work was analyzed for these four counties rainfall distribution over one hundred years (1911 until 2010) verifying the changes and / or trends in their series and investigating whether there is a relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation ( ODP) with annual rainfall of 4 locations. From the results obtained, it was found that St. John's River Fish has the highest average rainfall, but the tendency of his series showed up negative in opposed to other municipalities that had lower average rainfall, but with positive trends. The investigation of the influence of PDO on normalized annual rainfall series analyzed, showed that a portion of the ODP influence on rainfall variability, but depends on their strength and other factors such as the Tropical Atlantic dipole and El Niño / La Niña, indicating that further investigations should be made.

scholarly journals Principal component regression analysis demonstrates the collinearity-free effect of sub estimated climatic variables on tree growth in the central Amazon

2021 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Antonio Marenco ◽  
Saul Alfredo Antezana-Vera
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Tree Growth ◽  
Seasonal Pattern ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Principal Component Regression ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Central Amazon ◽  
Minimum Relative Humidity

Introduction: Climatic variables show a seasonal pattern in the central Amazon, but the intra-annual variability effect on tree growth is still unclear. For variables such as relative humidity (RH) and air vapor pressure deficit (VPD), whose individual effects on tree growth can be underestimated, we hypothesize that such influences can be detected by removing the effect of collinearity between regressors. Objective: This study aimed to determine the collinearity-free effect of climatic variability on tree growth in the central Amazon. Methods: Monthly radial growth was measured in 325 trees from January 2013 to December 2017. Irradiance, air temperature, rainfall, RH, and VPD data were also recorded. Principal Component Regression was used to assess the effect of micrometeorological variability on tree growth over time. For comparison, standard Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) was also used for data analysis. Results: Tree growth increased with increasing rainfall and relative humidity, but it decreased with rising maximum VPD, irradiance, and maximum temperature. Therefore, trees grew more slowly during the dry season, when irradiance, temperature and VPD were higher. Micrometeorological variability did not affect tree growth when MLR was applied. These findings indicate that ignoring the correlation between climatic variables can lead to imprecise results. Conclusions: A novelty of this study is to demonstrate the orthogonal effect of maximum VPD and minimum relative humidity on tree growth.

Nonstationary temporal response of mountain hemlock growth to climatic variability in the North Cascade Range, Washington, USA

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 676-688 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kailey Marcinkowski ◽  
David L. Peterson ◽  
Gregory J. Ettl
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Growth Response ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Cascade Range ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Spring Temperature ◽  
The North ◽  
La Nina

A stationary response of tree radial growth to climatic variables is assumed as a basis for climatic reconstructions and future growth projections in response to climate change. Mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carrière) trees on the western slopes of the North Cascade Range (Washington, USA) were examined for stability in growth response to climatic influences at a small spatial scale. Moving correlation functions demonstrate that climate–growth interactions are nonstationary over time, alternating between periods of significant and nonsignificant responses. Correlations between growth and winter precipitation have weakened, becoming statistically insignificant in the last decade, but correlations with spring temperature and previous-year summer temperature have strengthened, becoming statistically significant. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation influences patterns in climate–growth correlations but does not seem to account for the most recent changes in correlation strength. At an interannual scale, growth differs between El Niño Southern Oscillation phases, specifically between El Niño and La Niña years and between La Niña and neutral phase years. The variability in growth response to climate at interannual and interdecadal time frames, especially with the climate changes emerging in recent decades, will challenge the reliability and accuracy of reconstruction and predictive models.

scholarly journals Temperature Surface of Guaíba Lake, RS, from time series of MODIS images

RBRH ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Glenio Antonio da Luz ◽  
Laurindo Antonio Guasselli ◽  
Daniela Rocha
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Rio Grande Do Sul ◽  
La Nina

ABSTRACT The Guaíba lake is located in an area of complex weather variation and is influenced by many atmospheric circulation systems, bringing about violent occluded fronts, and, sometimes, intense precipitation. In Rio Grande do Sul, during El Niño, air temperatures and the precipitation index are higher, contrary to La Niña. Moreover, the Guaíba Lake receives water from the Guaíba's Hydrographical Region, which corresponds to 1/3 of Rio Grande do Sul State, and is thus an important water body to the metropolitan region of Porto Alegre. Methods that seek to understand the behavior of Guaíba lake surface water temperature (LSWT) may lead to relevant information to identify periods of more or less water warming, as well as the relations between LSWT, water quality deterioration and risks to human health. This paper aims to comprehend the behavior of Guaíba LSWT during periods of climatic anomalies (El Niño/La Niña). Therefore, 418 sea surface temperature (SST) images from the MODIS sensor were processed with SeaDas 7.2 software. The quarterly averages of LSWT were obtained and compared to the climatological anomalies in Equatorial Pacific Ocean. LSWT behavior is more complex in El Niño/La Niña periods. The results show that during climatic abnormality periods there are no direct relationship between the warming/cooling of Guaíba LSWT and the warming/cooling of Equatorial Pacific Ocean’s SST. The precipitation indices were more significant to the behavior of LSWT during El Niño periods, but for all periods (of climatic normality and abnormality), air temperature is what most influences LSWT. This relation occurs with climatic factors of water retention time, water entry and precipitation, and air temperature. There is a major correspondence during La Niña periods with the cooling of Guaíba LSWT only for some years. On the other hand, during El Niño periods there are no correspondences of this phenomenon with the warming of Guaíba LSWT. There are only more intense oscillations in surface temperatures than during regular and La Niña periods, but with a tendency to LSWT warming.

ANALISIS DAERAH RAWAN KEKERINGAN LAHAN JAGUNG BERDASARKAN IKLIM OLDEMAN DAN KETERSEDIAN AIR TANAH DI NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR SAAT PERIODE EL NINO DAN LA NINA

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 1219
Author(s):  
Oki Adrianto ◽  
Sudirman Sudirman ◽  
Suwandi Suwandi
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina

Perekonomian Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur secara sektoral masih didominasi sektor pertanian.Tanaman jagung menjadi salah satu produksi tanaman pangan terbesar berdasarkan data dari Dinas Pertanian dan Perkebunan Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur tahun 2015. Peningkatan produksi pertanian dapat dilakukan melalui berbagai strategi adaptasi dan upaya penanganan bencana, salah satu upaya tersebut adalah dengan penyediaan informasi iklim terkait penentuan daerah-daerah rawan kekeringan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui sebaran wilayah rawan kekeringan lahan jagung bulanan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur saat kondisi El Nino dan La Nina dengan periodeisasi bulanan januari hingga desember. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data curah hujan rata rata bulanan di 19 pos hujan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur dan suhu udara rata-rata bulanan dihitung menggunakan pendekatan teori Brack dengan titik referensi Stasiun Klimatologi Lasiana Kupang. Periode dari masing-masing data yang digunakan adalah dari tahun 1991 dan 1997 digunakan sebagai tahun El Nino dan tahun 1999 dan 2010 digunakan sebagai tahun La Nina. Metode yang digunakan untuk menentukan tingkat rawan kekeringan dengan menggunakan pembobotan berdasarkan penjumlahan bobot tipe iklim Oldeman dan bobot ketersediaan air tanah. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan sebaran daerah kekeringan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timurpada tahun el nino lebih luas dibandingkan tahun la nina.

A Influência dos fenômenos El Niño e La Niña sobre a dinâmica climática da região Amazônica

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. e2018014
Author(s):  
Samya de Freitas MOREIRA ◽  
Cleiciane Silva da CONCEIÇÃO ◽  
Milla Cristina Santos da CRUZ ◽  
Antônio PEREIRA JÚNIOR
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina

Caracterização climática da temperatura do ar em Veranópolis, Rio Grande do Sul

Agrometeoros ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda Heemann Junges
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Rio Grande Do Sul ◽  
La Nina

Estudos locais de caraterização e variabilidade climática são fundamentais para geração de informações mais adaptadas às atividades agrícolas desenvolvidas em um município ou região. O objetivo desse trabalho foi caracterizar climaticamente e analisar a influência de eventos El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS) na série 1956-2015 de temperatura do ar de Veranópolis, RS. Para caracterização climática foram estabelecidas estatísticas descritivas das temperaturas do ar máximas, mínimas e médias mensais, estacional e anual na série e normal climatológica padrão 1961- 1990. Para identificação de diferenças entre estações e influência de eventos ENOS, os dados foram submetidos à análise de variância e teste de Duncan. Os resultados indicaram que a temperatura média anual é de 17,3ºC, variando entre 12,7ºC (julho) e 21,8ºC (janeiro). O clima é do tipo Cfb, de acordo com a classificação climática de Köppen e TE (temperado) na classificação climática do Estado. Temperaturas mínimas médias mensais inferiores a 10ºC ocorrem de maio a setembro, período de maior variabilidade interanual das temperaturas máximas (desvio padrão entre 1,5º e 1,8ºC), mínimas (1,6-1,8ºC) e médias mensais (1,4-1,7ºC). Anos de La Niña possuem temperaturas médias estacionais inferiores as de El Niño, embora diferenciação em relação a neutros ocorra somente para temperaturas mínimas na primavera e máximas no outono.

Rendimento de grãos de soja e de milho, no Rio Grande do Sul, não difere entre eventos El Niño Oscilação Sul

Agrometeoros ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronaldo Matzenauer ◽  
Bernadete Radin ◽  
Alberto Cargnelutti Filho
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Rio Grande Do Sul ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Income Data ◽  
The Relationship

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a relação entre o fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul - ENOS e o rendimento de grãos de soja e de milho no Rio Grande do Sul e verificar a hipótese de que os eventos El Niño são favoráveis e os eventos La Niña são prejudiciais ao rendimento de grãos das culturas. Foram utilizados dados de rendimento de grãos dos anos agrícolas de 1974/75 a 2016/17, e relacionados com as ocorrências de eventos ENOS. Foram analisados os dados de rendimento observados na colheita e os dados estimados com a remoção da tendência tecnológica. Os resultados mostraram que não houve diferença significativa do rendimento médio de grãos de soja e de milho na comparação entre os eventos ENOS. Palavras-chave: El Niño, La Niña, safras agrícolas. Abstract – The objective of this work was to evaluate the relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon with the grain yield of soybean and maize in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil and to verify the hypothesis that the El Niño events are favorable and the La Niña events are harmful to the culture’s grain yields. Were used data from the agricultural years of 1974/75 to 2016/17, and related to the occurrence of ENOS events. We analyzed income data observed at harvest and estimated data with technological tendency was removed. The results showed that there was no significant difference in the average yield of soybeans and corn in the comparison between events.

La niña y el mar

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Piñero Ramírez
Keyword(s):  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina
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