Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in Marketed Unpasteurized Milk in Selected East African Countries

2008 ◽  
Vol 71 (2) ◽  
pp. 257-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. GRACE ◽  
A. OMORE ◽  
T. RANDOLPH ◽  
E. KANG'ETHE ◽  
G. W. NASINYAMA ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Escherichia Coli ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Unpasteurized Milk ◽  
Hazard Characterization ◽  
Process Risk

We carried out a study to assess the risk associated with the presence of Shiga toxigenic Escherichia coli (STEC) in informally marketed unpasteurized milk in urban East Africa. Data for the risk models were obtained from on-going and recently completed studies in Kenya and Uganda. Inputs for the model were complemented with data from published literature in similar populations. A fault-tree scenario pathway and modular process risk model approach were used for exposure assessment. Hazard characterization was based on a socioeconomic study with dose-responses derived from the literature. We used a probabilistic approach with Monte Carlo simulation and inputs from farm and household surveys. The qualitative analysis suggested a low to moderate risk of infection from consuming milk and that the widespread consumer practice of boiling milk before consumption was an important risk mitigator. Quantitative analysis revealed that two to three symptomatic STEC infections could be expected for every 10,000 unpasteurized milk portions consumed, with a possible range of 0 to 22 symptomatic cases. Sensitivity analyses to assess the uncertainty and variability associated with the model revealed that the factor with the greatest influence on disease incidence was the prevalence of STEC in dairy cattle. Risk assessment is a potentially useful method for managing food safety in informal markets.

scholarly journals The relationship between lay and technical views of Escherichia coli O157 risk

2011 ◽  
Vol 366 (1573) ◽  
pp. 1999-2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. J. C. Strachan ◽  
C. J. Hunter ◽  
C. D. R. Jones ◽  
R. S. Wilson ◽  
S. Ethelberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Escherichia Coli ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Farm Animals ◽  
The Public ◽  
E Coli ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Epidemiological Risk ◽  
Low Incidence ◽  
Risk Managers

Here, we bring together and contrast lay (accessible primarily through social science methodologies) and technical (via risk assessment and epidemiological techniques) views of the risk associated with the Escherichia coli O157 pathogen using two case study areas in the Grampian region of Scotland, and North Wales. Epidemiological risk factors of contact with farm animals, visiting farms or farm fields and having a private water supply were associated with postcode districts of higher than average disease incidence in the human population. However, this was not the case for the epidemiological risk factor of consumption of beef burgers, which was independent of disease incidence in the postcode district of residence. The proportion of the population expressing a high knowledge of E. coli O157 was greatest in high-incidence disease districts compared with low-incidence areas (17% cf. 7%). This supports the hypothesis that in high-disease-incidence areas, residents are regularly exposed to information about the disease through local cases, the media, local social networks, etc. or perhaps that individuals are more likely to be motivated to find out about it. However, no statistically significant difference was found between high- and low-incidence postcode districts in terms of the proportion of the population expressing a high likelihood of personal risk of infection (10% cf. 14%), giving a counterintuitive difference between the technical (epidemiological and quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA)) and the lay assessment of E. coli O157 risk. This suggests that lay evaluations of E. coli O157 risk reflect intuitive and experience-based estimates of the risk rather than probabilistic estimates. A generally strong correspondence was found in terms of the rank order given to potential infection pathways, with environment and foodborne infection routes dominating when comparing public understanding with technical modelling results. Two general conclusions follow from the work. First, that integrative research incorporating both lay and technical views of risk is required in order that informed decisions can be made to handle or treat the risk by the groups concerned (e.g. the public, policy makers/risk managers, etc.). Second, when communicating risk, for example, through education programmes, it is important that this process is two-way with risk managers (e.g. including Food Standards Agency officials and communications team, public health infection control and environmental health officers) both sharing information with the public and stakeholder groups, as well as incorporating public knowledge, values and context (e.g. geographical location) into risk-management decisions.

scholarly journals Recruitment of Employees—Assumptions of the Risk Model

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 55
Author(s):  
Halina Sobocka-Szczapa
Keyword(s):  
Risk Model ◽  
Model Identification ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Competitive Advantages ◽  
Recruitment Process ◽  
Process Risk ◽  
Model Formation ◽  
Risk Determinants ◽  
Final Selection ◽  
Selection Of

The aim of this article is to present the risk model premises related to worker recruitment. Recruitment affects the final selection of workers, whose activities contribute to corporate competitive advantages. Hiring unfavorable workers can influence the results produced by an organization. This risk mostly affects situations when searching for workers via the external labor market, although it can also affect internal recruitment. Therefore, it is necessary to attempt to identify recruitment risk determinants and classify their meaning in such processes. Model formation has both theoretical and intuitive characteristics. Model dependencies and their characteristics are identified in this paper. We attempted to assess the usability of the risk model for economic praxis. The analyses and results provide a model identification of dependencies between the factors determining a workers recruitment process and the risk which is caused by this process (employing inadequate workers who do not meet the employer’s expectations). The identification of worker recruitment process determinants should allow for practically reducing the risk of employing an inadequate worker and contribute to the reduction in unfavorable recruitment processes. The added value of this publication is the complex identification of recruitment process risk determinants and dependency formulations in a model form.

scholarly journals Risk assessment of Escherichia coli in bioaerosols generated following land application of farmyard slurry

2021 ◽  
Vol 791 ◽  
pp. 148189
Author(s):  
Rajat Nag ◽  
Ciaran Monahan ◽  
Paul Whyte ◽  
Bryan K. Markey ◽  
Vincent O'Flaherty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Escherichia Coli ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Land Application

Risk assessment of white phosphorus in military training areas, a probabilistic approach

2006 ◽  
Vol 164 ◽  
pp. S139-S140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Øyvind Albert Voie ◽  
Kjetil S. Longva ◽  
Arnljot E. Strømseng ◽  
Arnt Johnsen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Military Training ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
White Phosphorus ◽  
Military Training Areas

An integrated risk-assessment framework for multiple threats to floodplain values in the Kakadu Region, Australia, under a changing climate

2018 ◽  
Vol 69 (7) ◽  
pp. 1159 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Bayliss ◽  
C. M. Finlayson ◽  
J. Innes ◽  
A. Norman-López ◽  
R. Bartolo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Invasive Species ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystems ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Assessment Framework ◽  
Integrated Risk Assessment ◽  
Invasive Species Control ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Time Frames

The internationally important river–floodplains of the Kakadu Region in northern Australia are at risk from invasive species and future sea-level rise–saltwater inundation (SLR–SWI), requiring assessments of multiple cumulative risks over different time frames. An integrated risk-assessment framework was developed to assess threats from feral animals and aquatic weeds at three SLR-scenario time frames (present-day, 2070 and 2100) to natural (magpie goose habitats), cultural (indigenous hunting–fishing sites) and economic (tourism revenue less invasive species control costs) values. Probability density functions (pdfs) were fitted to spatial data to characterise values and threats, and combined with Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainties. All risks were integrated in a Bayesian belief network to undertake ‘what if’ management-scenario analyses, and incorporated known ecological interactions and uncertainties. Coastal landscapes and socio-ecological systems in the region will be very different by 2100 as a result of SLR; freshwater ecosystems will transform to marine-dominated ecosystems and cannot be managed back to analogue conditions. In this context, future invasive-species risks will decrease, reflecting substantial loss of freshwater habitats previously at risk and a reduction in the extent of invasive species, highlighting the importance of freshwater refugia for the survival of iconic species.

Scenario based evaluation of a cost risk model through sensitivity analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 403-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Önder Ökmen ◽  
Ahmet Öztaş
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Practical Method ◽  
Cost Evaluation ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Detailed Evaluation ◽  
Cost Risk

Purpose – Actual costs frequently deviate from the estimated costs in either favorable or adverse direction in construction projects. Conventional cost evaluation methods do not take the uncertainty and correlation effects into account. In this regard, a simulation-based cost risk analysis model, the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model, previously has been proposed to evaluate the uncertainty effect on construction costs in case of correlated costs and correlated risk-factors. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the detailed evaluation of the Cost Risk Analysis Model through scenario and sensitivity analyses. Design/methodology/approach – The evaluation process consists of three scenarios with three sensitivity analyses in each and 28 simulations in total. During applications, the model’s important parameter called the mean proportion coefficient is modified and the user-dependent variables like the risk-factor influence degrees are changed to observe the response of the model to these modifications and to examine the indirect, two-sided and qualitative correlation capturing algorithm of the model. Monte Carlo Simulation is also applied on the same data to compare the results. Findings – The findings have shown that the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model is capable of capturing the correlation between the costs and between the risk-factors, and operates in accordance with the theoretical expectancies. Originality/value – Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model can be preferred as a reliable and practical method by the professionals of the construction sector thanks to its detailed evaluation introduced in this paper.

Prevalence of Pathogens in Young Children Presenting to Hospital with Diarrhea from Lambaréné, Gabon

2021 ◽  
Vol 105 (1) ◽  
pp. 254-260
Author(s):  
Gédéon Prince Manouana ◽  
Natalie Byrne ◽  
Mirabeau Mbong Ngwese ◽  
Alvyn Nguema Moure ◽  
Philipp Hofmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Escherichia Coli ◽  
Diarrheal Disease ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Infectious Agent ◽  
Diagnostic Tools ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Preventative Interventions ◽  
Pathogenic Agents ◽  
Multiple Pathogens

Abstract.Diarrheal disease is the second most frequent cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years worldwide, causing more than half a million deaths each year. Our knowledge of the epidemiology of potentially pathogenic agents found in children suffering from diarrhea in sub-Saharan African countries is still patchy, and thereby hinders implementation of effective preventative interventions. The lack of cheap, easy-to-use diagnostic tools leads to mostly symptomatic and empirical case management. An observational study with a total of 241 participants was conducted from February 2017 to August 2018 among children younger than 5 years with diarrhea in Lambaréné, Gabon. Clinical and demographic data were recorded, and a stool sample was collected. The samples were examined using a commercial rapid immunoassay to detect Rotavirus/adenovirus, conventional bacterial culture for Salmonella spp., and multiplex real-time PCR for Cryptosporidium spp., Giardia lamblia, Cyclospora cayetanensis, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC), and enteroinvasive Escherichia coli (EIEC)/Shigella. At least one infectious agent was present in 121 of 241 (50%) samples. The most frequently isolated pathogens were EIEC/Shigella and ETEC (54/179; 30.2% and 44/179; 24.6%, respectively), followed by G. lamblia (33/241; 13.7%), Cryptosporidium spp. (31/241; 12.9%), and Rotavirus (23/241; 9.5%). Coinfection with multiple pathogens was observed in 33% (40/121) of the positive cases with EIEC/Shigella, ETEC, and Cryptosporidium spp. most frequently identified. Our results provide new insight into the possible causes of diarrheal disease in the Moyen-Ogooué region of Gabon and motivate further research on possible modes of infection and targeted preventive measures.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document