scholarly journals Vulnerabilities and resilience of local women towards climate change in the Indus basin

2021 ◽  
pp. 85-105
Author(s):  
Saqib Shakeel Abbasi ◽  
Muhammad Zubair Anwar ◽  
Nusrat Habib ◽  
Qaiser Khan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Indus Basin

scholarly journals Addressing Climate Change Risks Influencing Cryosphere-Fed Kuhl Irrigation System in the Upper Indus Basin of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 184-203
Author(s):  
Arshad Ashraf ◽  
Ghani Akbar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Irrigation System ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Snow Avalanche ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Upper Indus Basin

Cryosphere-fed kuhl irrigation system forms a major lifeline for agriculture and livelihood development in the Himalayan region. The system is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts like glacier retreat, glacial lake outburst floods, snow avalanches and landslides especially in the upper Indus Basin (UIB). It is necessary to conduct reassessment of climate change impacts and find coping strategies for sustainable agriculture development in this mountainous region. In the present study, risks of glacier depletion , lakes outburst flood, snow avalanche and landslide hazards impacting cryosphere-fed kuhl irrigation system in 10 river basins of the UIB of Pakistan were analyzed using multi-hazard indexing approach. High risk of glacier depletion was observed in the Astore and Swat river basins likely because of the combined effect of reduced snow precipitation and rising warm temperatures in these basins. The risk of expansion in aggregate lake area was high in the Indus sub-basin, moderate in the five basins (i.e., Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, Shingo and Astore), while it was low in the four basins (i.e., Swat, Chitral, Gilgit and Jhelum). More than 2% areas of Hunza and Shigar basins in the Karakoram range exhibited high risk of snow avalanche and landslide (SAL) hazard, while moderate SAL hazard was found in >40% areas of Chitral, Gilgit, Hunza and Shigar river basins. An effective early warning mechanism and provision of adequate resources for preparedness are essential to cope with negative impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture in this region in future.

Mitigation of Climate Change Impacts Through Treatment and Management of Low Quality Water for Irrigation in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
pp. 1181-1198
Author(s):  
Ghulam Murtaza ◽  
Muhammad Saqib ◽  
Saifullah ◽  
Muhammad Zia-ur-Rehman ◽  
Muhammad Naveed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ground Water ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Soluble Salts ◽  
Quality Water ◽  
To Come ◽  
Carry Over

The Indus Plains of Pakistan are situated in arid to semi-arid climate where monsoon rains are erratic and mostly fall in the months of July and August. These rains are not only insufficient to grow even a single crop without artificial irrigation but also cause flood havoc very frequently that is associated with the climate change. The Indus river transports water for agriculture, industry and domestic usage within the basin and downstream. The Indus Basin is among the few basins severely affected by global warming and resulting climate change. The alteration in temporal and spatial patterns of rainfall has resulted in unexpected drought and floods. About 70 to 80% of total river flows occur in summer season due to snow melt and monsoonal rainfalls. Lack of storage reservoirs has decreased the ability to regulate flood water as well as its potential use during the drought season along with cheap hydro-electricity generation. The sedimentation in the system has limited the storage capacity of the existing three reservoirs by 28%. Consequently carry over capacity of these storage structures is only 30 days compared to 120 to 220 days in India and 900 days in Colorado Basin. Pakistan is facing shortage of good quality water due to competition among agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, this scenario will continue rather will further aggravate in future. According to the climate change scenario, the warming is reflected in the river-flow data of Pakistan, especially during the past 2-3 decades. To bridge the gap between fresh water availability and demand, ground water is being pumped to meet the irrigation requirements of crops. The pumped ground water (70-80%) is brackish and could become a sustainability issue in the long run. The prolonged agricultural uses of such water will deteriorate soils, crops and human living environments. Water quality parameters usually considered include electrical conductivity (EC) for total soluble salts, and sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) and residual sodium carbonate (RSC) reflect the sodicity hazards. In order to limit or even to eliminate adverse effects of such waters, certain treatment and/or management options are considered as important pre-requisites. For bringing down high concentration of total soluble salts, dilution with good quality water is the doable practice. To decrease high SAR of irrigation water, a source of calcium is needed, dilution (with good quality water) will decrease SAR by the square root times of the dilution factor, while use of acids will be cost-intensive rather may adversely impact the soil health. For high RSC, dilution with low CO32-+HCO3- water will serve the purpose, addition of Ca-salts will raise Ca2++Mg2+ to bring a decrease in water RSC, while acids will neutralize CO32-+HCO3- to lower water RSC. Gypsum is the most economical and safe amendment while acids could also decrease RSC but at higher relative cost. City wastewater and seed priming in aerated gypsum solution is also presented. Such practices at small and/or large scale surely will help a lot to sustain the food security and the environment in the days to come where climate change has to be experienced round the world. Therefore, a well-coordinated program is necessary to create awareness among different sections of the society including the policy makers, general public, organizations, industrialists and farmers.

scholarly journals Comparative Assessment of Spatial Variability and Trends of Flows and Sediments under the Impact of Climate Change in the Upper Indus Basin

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 730
Author(s):  
Waqas Ul Hussan ◽  
Muhammad Khurram Shahzad ◽  
Frank Seidel ◽  
Anna Costa ◽  
Franz Nestmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Comparative Assessment ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Hydroelectric Power ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
The Impact

Extensive research of the variability of flows under the impact of climate change has been conducted for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). However, limited literature is available on the spatial distribution and trends of suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) in the sub-basins of UIB. This study covers the comparative assessment of flows and SSC trends measured at 13 stations in the UIB along with the variability of precipitation and temperatures possibly due to climate change for the past three decades. In the course of this period, the country’s largest reservoir, Tarbela, on the Indus River was depleted rapidly due to heavy sediment influx from the UIB. Sediment management of existing storage and future planned hydraulic structures (to tap 30,000 MW in the region) depends on the correct assessment of SSC, their variation patterns, and trends. In this study, the SSC trends are determined along with trends of discharges, precipitation, and temperatures using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. The results reveal that the annual flows and SSC are in a balanced state for the Indus River at Besham Qila, whereas the SSC are significantly reduced ranging from 18.56%–28.20% per decade in the rivers of Gilgit at Alam Bridge, Indus at Kachura, and Brandu at Daggar. The SSC significantly increase ranging from 20.08%–40.72% per decade in the winter together with a significant increase of average air temperature. During summers, the SSC are decreased significantly ranging from 18.63%–27.79% per decade along with flows in the Hindukush and Western–Karakorum regions, which is partly due to the Karakorum climate anomaly, and in rainfall-dominated basins due to rainfall reduction. In Himalayan regions, the SSC are generally increased slightly during summers. These findings will be helpful for understanding the sediment trends associated with flow, precipitation, and temperature variations, and may be used for the operational management of current reservoirs and the design of several hydroelectric power plants that are planned for construction in the UIB.

scholarly journals Predicting hydrologic responses to climate changes in highly glacierized and mountainous region Upper Indus Basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (8) ◽  
pp. 191957 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Izhar Shah ◽  
Asif Khan ◽  
Tahir Ali Akbar ◽  
Quazi K. Hassan ◽  
Asim Jahangir Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Upper Indus Basin

The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is a major source of supplying water to different areas because of snow and glaciers melt and is also enduring the regional impacts of global climate change. The expected changes in temperature, precipitation and snowmelt could be reasons for further escalation of the problem. Therefore, estimation of hydrological processes is critical for UIB. The objectives of this paper were to estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources and future projection for surface water under different climatic scenarios using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The methodology includes: (i) development of SWAT model using land cover, soil and meteorological data; (ii) calibration of the model using daily flow data from 1978 to 1993; (iii) model validation for the time 1994–2003; (iv) bias correction of regional climate model (RCM), and (v) utilization of bias-corrected RCM for future assessment under representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for mid (2041–2070) and late century (2071–2100). The results of the study revealed a strong correlation between simulated and observed flow with R 2 and Nash–Sutcliff efficiency (NSE) equal to 0.85 each for daily flow. For validation, R 2 and NSE were found to be 0.84 and 0.80, respectively. Compared to baseline period (1976–2005), the result of RCM showed an increase in temperature ranging from 2.36°C to 3.50°C and 2.92°C to 5.23°C for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively, till the end of the twenty-first century. Likewise, the increase in annual average precipitation is 2.4% to 2.5% and 6.0% to 4.6% (mid to late century) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The model simulation results for RCP4.5 showed increase in flow by 19.24% and 16.78% for mid and late century, respectively. For RCP8.5, the increase in flow is 20.13% and 15.86% during mid and late century, respectively. The model was more sensitive towards available moisture and snowmelt parameters. Thus, SWAT model could be used as effective tool for climate change valuation and for sustainable management of water resources in future.

Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Phenology and Yield in Indus Basin, Pakistan

2021 ◽  
pp. 148221
Author(s):  
Muhammad Azmat ◽  
Fatima Ilyas ◽  
Afia Sarwar ◽  
Christain Huggel ◽  
Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

scholarly journals Climate change projections over Indus basin using CMIP6 model simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
KOTESWARARAO KUNDETI ◽  
Lakshmi Kumar T.V ◽  
Ashwini Kulkarni ◽  
Chowdary J.S ◽  
Srinivas Desamsetti
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Abstract Indus basin is one of the most vulnerable regions due to climate change. This article presents the projected changes in precipitation and temperature over the Indus Basin using statistically downscaled, bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6) data sets for different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) in response to global warming. The future changes in precipitation and temperature extremes for different epochal periods of the 21st century are outlined. The spatial variations of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature obtained from the Multi-Model Mean (MMM) of CMIP6 models showed a good agreement with observations such as APHRODITE (precipitation), CPC (temperature) for the base period 1995 to 2014 over the Indus Basin. Our results suggest that there is a general increase in precipitation/ maximum and minimum temperature over the Upper Indus Basin/Lower Indus Basin by the end of the 21st century. It is also noted that the spatial variability of extreme climate indices is high during June to September (JJAS) than December to January (DJF). By the end of the century projections show that the precipitation changes are about 85% in JJAS and 40% in DJF with reference to the baseline (1995–2014) period over Indus Basin region. The temperature extreme indices are also increasing in future compare to the baseline period.

scholarly journals Modelling climate change impact on water resources of the Upper Indus Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamal H. Ougahi ◽  
Mark E. J. Cutler ◽  
Simon J. Cook
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
River Flows ◽  
Upper Indus Basin

Abstract Climate change has implications for water resources by increasing temperature, shifting precipitation patterns and altering the timing of snowfall and glacier melt, leading to shifts in the seasonality of river flows. Here, the Soil & Water Assessment Tool was run using downscaled precipitation and temperature projections from five global climate models (GCMs) and their multi-model mean to estimate the potential impact of climate change on water balance components in sub-basins of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) under two emission (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and future (2020–2050 and 2070–2100) scenarios. Warming of above 6 °C relative to baseline (1974–2004) is projected for the UIB by the end of the century (2070–2100), but the spread of annual precipitation projections among GCMs is large (+16 to −28%), and even larger for seasonal precipitation (+91 to −48%). Compared to the baseline, an increase in summer precipitation (RCP8.5: +36.7%) and a decrease in winter precipitation were projected (RCP8.5: −16.9%), with an increase in average annual water yield from the nival–glacial regime and river flow peaking 1 month earlier. We conclude that predicted warming during winter and spring could substantially affect the seasonal river flows, with important implications for water supplies.

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