Hydrology of mountainous areas in the upper Indus Basin, Northern Pakistan with the perspective of climate change

2011 ◽  
Vol 184 (9) ◽  
pp. 5255-5274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zulfiqar Ahmad ◽  
Mohsin Hafeez ◽  
Iftikhar Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Northern Pakistan ◽  
Mountainous Areas ◽  
Upper Indus Basin

scholarly journals Addressing Climate Change Risks Influencing Cryosphere-Fed Kuhl Irrigation System in the Upper Indus Basin of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 184-203
Author(s):  
Arshad Ashraf ◽  
Ghani Akbar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Irrigation System ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Snow Avalanche ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Upper Indus Basin

Cryosphere-fed kuhl irrigation system forms a major lifeline for agriculture and livelihood development in the Himalayan region. The system is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts like glacier retreat, glacial lake outburst floods, snow avalanches and landslides especially in the upper Indus Basin (UIB). It is necessary to conduct reassessment of climate change impacts and find coping strategies for sustainable agriculture development in this mountainous region. In the present study, risks of glacier depletion , lakes outburst flood, snow avalanche and landslide hazards impacting cryosphere-fed kuhl irrigation system in 10 river basins of the UIB of Pakistan were analyzed using multi-hazard indexing approach. High risk of glacier depletion was observed in the Astore and Swat river basins likely because of the combined effect of reduced snow precipitation and rising warm temperatures in these basins. The risk of expansion in aggregate lake area was high in the Indus sub-basin, moderate in the five basins (i.e., Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, Shingo and Astore), while it was low in the four basins (i.e., Swat, Chitral, Gilgit and Jhelum). More than 2% areas of Hunza and Shigar basins in the Karakoram range exhibited high risk of snow avalanche and landslide (SAL) hazard, while moderate SAL hazard was found in >40% areas of Chitral, Gilgit, Hunza and Shigar river basins. An effective early warning mechanism and provision of adequate resources for preparedness are essential to cope with negative impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture in this region in future.

scholarly journals Comparative Assessment of Spatial Variability and Trends of Flows and Sediments under the Impact of Climate Change in the Upper Indus Basin

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 730
Author(s):  
Waqas Ul Hussan ◽  
Muhammad Khurram Shahzad ◽  
Frank Seidel ◽  
Anna Costa ◽  
Franz Nestmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Comparative Assessment ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Hydroelectric Power ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
The Impact

Extensive research of the variability of flows under the impact of climate change has been conducted for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). However, limited literature is available on the spatial distribution and trends of suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) in the sub-basins of UIB. This study covers the comparative assessment of flows and SSC trends measured at 13 stations in the UIB along with the variability of precipitation and temperatures possibly due to climate change for the past three decades. In the course of this period, the country’s largest reservoir, Tarbela, on the Indus River was depleted rapidly due to heavy sediment influx from the UIB. Sediment management of existing storage and future planned hydraulic structures (to tap 30,000 MW in the region) depends on the correct assessment of SSC, their variation patterns, and trends. In this study, the SSC trends are determined along with trends of discharges, precipitation, and temperatures using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. The results reveal that the annual flows and SSC are in a balanced state for the Indus River at Besham Qila, whereas the SSC are significantly reduced ranging from 18.56%–28.20% per decade in the rivers of Gilgit at Alam Bridge, Indus at Kachura, and Brandu at Daggar. The SSC significantly increase ranging from 20.08%–40.72% per decade in the winter together with a significant increase of average air temperature. During summers, the SSC are decreased significantly ranging from 18.63%–27.79% per decade along with flows in the Hindukush and Western–Karakorum regions, which is partly due to the Karakorum climate anomaly, and in rainfall-dominated basins due to rainfall reduction. In Himalayan regions, the SSC are generally increased slightly during summers. These findings will be helpful for understanding the sediment trends associated with flow, precipitation, and temperature variations, and may be used for the operational management of current reservoirs and the design of several hydroelectric power plants that are planned for construction in the UIB.

scholarly journals Predicting hydrologic responses to climate changes in highly glacierized and mountainous region Upper Indus Basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (8) ◽  
pp. 191957 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Izhar Shah ◽  
Asif Khan ◽  
Tahir Ali Akbar ◽  
Quazi K. Hassan ◽  
Asim Jahangir Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Upper Indus Basin

The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is a major source of supplying water to different areas because of snow and glaciers melt and is also enduring the regional impacts of global climate change. The expected changes in temperature, precipitation and snowmelt could be reasons for further escalation of the problem. Therefore, estimation of hydrological processes is critical for UIB. The objectives of this paper were to estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources and future projection for surface water under different climatic scenarios using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The methodology includes: (i) development of SWAT model using land cover, soil and meteorological data; (ii) calibration of the model using daily flow data from 1978 to 1993; (iii) model validation for the time 1994–2003; (iv) bias correction of regional climate model (RCM), and (v) utilization of bias-corrected RCM for future assessment under representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for mid (2041–2070) and late century (2071–2100). The results of the study revealed a strong correlation between simulated and observed flow with R 2 and Nash–Sutcliff efficiency (NSE) equal to 0.85 each for daily flow. For validation, R 2 and NSE were found to be 0.84 and 0.80, respectively. Compared to baseline period (1976–2005), the result of RCM showed an increase in temperature ranging from 2.36°C to 3.50°C and 2.92°C to 5.23°C for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively, till the end of the twenty-first century. Likewise, the increase in annual average precipitation is 2.4% to 2.5% and 6.0% to 4.6% (mid to late century) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The model simulation results for RCP4.5 showed increase in flow by 19.24% and 16.78% for mid and late century, respectively. For RCP8.5, the increase in flow is 20.13% and 15.86% during mid and late century, respectively. The model was more sensitive towards available moisture and snowmelt parameters. Thus, SWAT model could be used as effective tool for climate change valuation and for sustainable management of water resources in future.

scholarly journals Modelling climate change impact on water resources of the Upper Indus Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamal H. Ougahi ◽  
Mark E. J. Cutler ◽  
Simon J. Cook
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
River Flows ◽  
Upper Indus Basin

Abstract Climate change has implications for water resources by increasing temperature, shifting precipitation patterns and altering the timing of snowfall and glacier melt, leading to shifts in the seasonality of river flows. Here, the Soil & Water Assessment Tool was run using downscaled precipitation and temperature projections from five global climate models (GCMs) and their multi-model mean to estimate the potential impact of climate change on water balance components in sub-basins of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) under two emission (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and future (2020–2050 and 2070–2100) scenarios. Warming of above 6 °C relative to baseline (1974–2004) is projected for the UIB by the end of the century (2070–2100), but the spread of annual precipitation projections among GCMs is large (+16 to −28%), and even larger for seasonal precipitation (+91 to −48%). Compared to the baseline, an increase in summer precipitation (RCP8.5: +36.7%) and a decrease in winter precipitation were projected (RCP8.5: −16.9%), with an increase in average annual water yield from the nival–glacial regime and river flow peaking 1 month earlier. We conclude that predicted warming during winter and spring could substantially affect the seasonal river flows, with important implications for water supplies.

scholarly journals Comparison of two model calibration approaches and their influence on future projections under climate change in the Upper Indus Basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 163 (3) ◽  
pp. 1227-1246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Fraz Ismail ◽  
Bibi S. Naz ◽  
Michel Wortmann ◽  
Markus Disse ◽  
Laura C. Bowling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Model Calibration ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
Calibration Approach

AbstractThis study performs a comparison of two model calibration/validation approaches and their influence on future hydrological projections under climate change by employing two climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and 8.5) projected by four global climate models. Two hydrological models (HMs), snowmelt runoff model + glaciers and variable infiltration capacity model coupled with a glacier model, were used to simulate streamflow in the highly snow and glacier melt–driven Upper Indus Basin. In the first (conventional) calibration approach, the models were calibrated only at the basin outlet, while in the second (enhanced) approach intermediate gauges, different climate conditions and glacier mass balance were considered. Using the conventional and enhanced calibration approaches, the monthly Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) for both HMs ranged from 0.71 to 0.93 and 0.79 to 0.90 in the calibration, while 0.57–0.92 and 0.54–0.83 in the validation periods, respectively. For the future impact assessment, comparison of differences based on the two calibration/validation methods at the annual scale (i.e. 2011–2099) shows small to moderate differences of up to 10%, whereas differences at the monthly scale reached up to 19% in the cold months (i.e. October–March) for the far future period. Comparison of sources of uncertainty using analysis of variance showed that the contribution of HM parameter uncertainty to the overall uncertainty is becoming very small by the end of the century using the enhanced approach. This indicates that enhanced approach could potentially help to reduce uncertainties in the hydrological projections when compared to the conventional calibration approach.

scholarly journals Observed Trends and Variability of Temperature and Precipitation and Their Global Teleconnections in the Upper Indus Basin, Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 973
Author(s):  
Azfar Hussain ◽  
Jianhua Cao ◽  
Ishtiaq Hussain ◽  
Saira Begum ◽  
Mobeen Akhtar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Increasing Trends

Having an extreme topography and heterogeneous climate, the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is more likely to be affected by climate change and it is a crucial area for climatological studies. Based on the monthly minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax) and precipitation from nine meteorological stations, the spatiotemporal variability of temperature and precipitation were analyzed on monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. Results show a widespread significant increasing trend of 0.14 °C/decade for Tmax, but a significant decreasing trend of −0.08 °C/decade for Tmin annually, during 1955–2016 for the UIB. Seasonally, warming in Tmax is stronger in winter and spring, while the cooling in Tmin is greater in summer and autumn. Results of seasonal Tmax indicate increasing trends in winter, spring and autumn at rates of 0.38, 0.35 and 0.05 °C/decade, respectively, while decreasing in summer with −0.14 °C/decade. Moreover, seasonal Tmin results indicate increasing trends in winter and spring at rates of 0.09 and 0.08 °C/decade, respectively, while decreasing significantly in summer and autumn at rates of −0.21 and −0.22 °C/decade respectively for the whole the UIB. Precipitation exhibits an increasing trend of 2.74 mm/decade annually, while, increasing in winter, summer and autumn at rates of 1.18, 2.06 and 0.62 mm/decade respectively. The warming in Tmax and an increase in precipitation have been more distinct since the mid-1990s, while the cooling in Tmin is observed in the UIB since the mid-1980s. Warming in the middle and higher altitude (1500–2800 m and >2800 m) are much stronger, and the increase is more obvious in regions with elevation >2800 m. The wavelet analysis illustrated sporadic inter-annual covariance of seasonal Tmax, Tmin and precipitation with ENSO, NAO, IOD and PDO in the UIB. The periodicities were usually constant over short timescales and discontinuous over longer timescales. This study offers a better understanding of the local climate characteristics and provides a scientific basis for government policymakers.

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