The effect of negative policy rates on the interest-rate pass-through mechanism in the eurozone

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 247-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yannis Panagopoulos ◽  
Ekaterini Tsouma
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Market ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines the impact of the June 2014 switch to negative interest rates (NIRs) by the European Central Bank (ECB) on the operation of the eurozone interest-rate pass-through (IRPT) mechanism. We focus on the relationship between major central-bank policy rates and selected money-market rates. That link is identified as the first stage of the IRPT mechanism and its dynamics are analysed using Granger causality and cointegration techniques for the time period January 2000–June 2017. Our empirical findings indicate a feedback relationship between the ECB policy and the money-market rates in the period prior to June 2014, but that relationship is non-operative when considering only the period of NIRs.

Inside the Bank Box

2019 ◽  
pp. 368-405
Author(s):  
Leonardo Gambacorta ◽  
Paul Mizen
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Adjustment Costs ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Bank Capital ◽  
Bank Lending Channel ◽  
Lending Channel ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Interest Rate

Central bank policy operates first through financial markets and then through banks as they adjust their interest rates. This chapter discusses the transmission of policy in this first step of the monetary transmission mechanism, known as interest-rate pass-through. Historically, the focus of attention has been the interest-rate channel. We show the origins of this channel via a microfounded model of interest-rate setting by deposit-taking institutions that are Cournot oligopolists facing adjustment costs. We then examine other channels such as the bank lending channel and the bank capital channel and the role of central bank communications, signaling, and forward guidance over future interest rates. Each is shown to influence the setting of current short-term interest rates. The chapter closes with some issues for the future of pass-through in the transmission process.

scholarly journals Using Expected Geometric Values to Calculate the Cost of Interest in Hyper-inflationary Environments: the Case of Venezuela

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-21
Author(s):  
J. Tim Query ◽  
Evaristo Diz Cruz
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Defined Benefit ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Defined Benefit Plans ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

It is of vital importance to explore the relationship between pensions and inflationary levels because this forms a link between social policy and economic development in the context of Venezuela’s challenging economy and its impact on the development of pension systems. With such rampant inflation, companies must adjust the rates of salary increases to avoid a significant decrease in the purchasing power of income from defined benefit plans. Our research seeks to find the possibility of using an average geometric rate of future interest rates expressed as an expected value to discount obligations. Consequently, the cost of interest associated with the actuarial liability of the Benefit plans increases substantially in the next fiscal period to the actuarial valuation, sometimes compromising its sustainability over time. In order to minimize this problem, two scenarios for calculating the interest rate are proposed to smooth out this volatile effect; both are based on a geometric average with the expectation of working life or with the duration of the obligations. We are careful to use a reasonable interest rate that is not so high as to compromise the cash flow, resulting in skewed annual results of the companies. Our research seeks to find the possibility of using an average geometric rate of future interest rates expressed as an expected value to discount obligations. We formulate and actuarially evaluate two different scenarios, based on job expectations and Macaulay's duration, of the obligations that allow the sustainability of the plan in an environment of extremely high inflation. To illustrate the impact of the basic annual expenditure of the period, the results of an actuarial valuation of an actual Venezuelan company were utilized. Despite some companies adjusting their book reserves increasingly through a geometric progression, the amounts associated with the costs of interest would be huge in any such adjustment pattern. Therefore, we suggest adoption of one of the alternatives described in the research.

scholarly journals Central bank interest policy: conceptual concepts and socio-economic context

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (Extra-E) ◽  
pp. 531-536
Author(s):  
Aleksandr N. Sukharev ◽  
Sergey N. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Economic Context ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
Interest Policy ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Interest Rate

The article reveals the goals and mechanisms of the interest rate policy of the central bank. The role of the discount rate in ensuring financial and macroeconomic stability is shown. The Taylor rule is presented and justified in a modified form, by including the money supply parameter in it. The phenomenon of negative interest rates is revealed.

scholarly journals The impact of the excess reserves of the banking sector on interest rates and money supply in Poland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariusz Kapuściński ◽  
Ilona Pietryka
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Money Market ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Excess Reserves ◽  
Market Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

In this monograph we aim to analyse the effects of leaving excess reserves in the banking sector by the central bank on the level and the variability of interest rates, as well as on money supply. To this end, we use mainly data for Poland, but in some cases, for robustness, also for a panel of Poland, the euro area, the Czech Republic and Hungary, as there had only been a limited variability in some policy variables in our sample for Poland. We estimate the parameters of GARCH, (P)VAR (vector autoregressive or panel vector autoregressive) and (panel) linear regression models. We find that excess reserves affect the level and the variability of an overnight money market interest rate. However, the variability of the overnight money market interest rate, shaped to a large extent by excess reserves, does not affect the level of longer-term interest rates, and we find little evidence of its impact on their variability. Neither do excess reserves translate into higher money supply. Our results imply that the current monetary policy operational framework in Poland is adequate to ensure the transmission of the central bank policy rate to money market interest rates. Furthermore, it appears unlikely that raising the amount of excess reserves left, as proposed by some policymakers, would affect money supply. Instead, it would lower the money multiplier and the overnight money market interest rate, as well as increase its volatility.

Evidence of customer sophistication behaviour in deposit markets: the case of Qatar

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 1181-1196
Author(s):  
Noura Abu Asab
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Industry ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Monetary Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Interest Rate Volatility ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe paper investigates the interest rate policy transmission mechanism and the role of market structure of the banking industry in Qatar.Design/methodology/approachCompetitiveness indexes are used to measure the degree of market power in the banking industry in Qatar. The momentum threshold autoregressive model is applied over the monthly period from January 2005 to June 2018 to examine the magnitude of intermediation and adjustment to disequilibria in the deposit market. In addition, to model interest rate volatility and overcome the problem of heteroscedastic errors in the error correction standard models, an asymmetric EC-EGARCH-M model is applied.FindingsThe findings suggest incomplete pass-through and asymmetric response to monetary shocks. The asymmetric adjustment mechanism is found to be downward rigid which suggests a high degree of customer sophistication and an elastic supply of deposits. The results of the EC-EGARCH-M show that the impact of monetary policy shocks has a significant positive impact on deposit interest rates and that negative monetary shocks trigger more conditional interest rate volatility in the next period than positive monetary shocks for a short maturity rate.Originality/valueThe paper is the first to highlight the behaviour of the interest rate pass through channel and measures the degree of competitiveness of the banking industry for the case of a small, rich country. In addition, using recent data, the paper applies different econometric methodologies and overcomes the problem of heteroskedastic errors by modelling the interest rate volatility using the EC-EGARCH-M model.

scholarly journals ANALISIS INTEREST RATE PASS-THROUGH PADA MEKANISME TRANSMISI KEBIJAKAN MONETER INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 125
Author(s):  
Risna Amalia Hamzah ◽  
Handri Handri
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Money Market ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Consumer Loans ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Interest Rate

This reseach aimed to evaluate the performance of monetary policy, toexamine and test the magnitude of the response rates on deposits and bank loans to the money market interest rate, and how fast adjustment of the interest rate of deposits and loans in response to changes in money market interest rates. The performance evaluation of the level of adjustment of interest rate pass-through is done by testing the coefficient of adjustment of the interest rate deposits and loans in response to changes in money market interest rates. The object of this reseach is reported in interest rates interbank money market (rPUAB) and bank interest rates (loans and deposits) of all commercial banks in Indonesia, the data used in the form of a row of monthly time (monthly time series) of the annual report of Bank Indonesia and SEKI ( Economic and Financial statistics Indonesia), in the period 2005-2016. The method used in this research is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) for calculating the amount of long-term coefficients and Error Correction Model (ECM) -ARDL for calculating the amount of short-term coefficients. We find of the analysis indicate a change of monetary policy in the short term through the interest rate channel with its operational targets interest rates interbank money market (interbank) did not respond in full by the rates on deposits and loans in commercial banks in Indonesia, represented by the value of the degree of pass- through which less than 1 and there is a tendency that the longterm interest rates on loans and deposits experienced incomplete pass-through, then interest rates on consumer loans and deposits of 24 months has the speed of the slowest, which means consumer loans and deposits of 24 months in Indonesia unresponsive to changes in interbank rates. keywords: ARDL, ECM, Interest Rate pass-through, PUAB.

scholarly journals The Impact of Interest Rate Ceilings on Microfinance Industry

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Ali Saleh Alshebami ◽  
D. M. Khandare
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Research Subject ◽  
Access To Credit ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Good Intention ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

<p>Imposing ceilings on the interest rate has recently become one of the new hottest topics in microfinance industry; various debates have been discussing this issue to know the effect of interest rate ceilings on the supply of credit in particular and on microfinance industry in general. However in spite of the good intention behind these ceilings, there was no absolute result stating that ceilings have really contributed to the improvement or protection of the poor clients, indeed, these ceilings have hurt those low income people instead of helping them, due to these ceilings most of MFIs left the market or reduced their scale due to the inability to continue operating with low interest rate leaving the very poor clients without access to credit. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to review the impact of imposing such ceilings on the interest rates and to find out what alterative solutions can be employed as substitutes for them. This paper is entirely based on the secondary data collected from various records related to microfinance such as microfinance books, official websites and reports, published papers, and other sources related to the research subject.</p>

scholarly journals ALUR TRANSMISI DAN EFEKTIFITAS KEBIJAKAN MONETER GANDA DI INDONESIA

2012 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 283-315
Author(s):  
Ascarya Ascarya
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Monetary Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary System ◽  
Data Form ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study aims to investigate transmission mechanism of dual monetary system from conventional and Islamic policy rates to inflation and output using Granger and VAR methods on monthly Indonesian banking data form January 2003 to December 2009. The result shows that conventional transmission mechanismsfrom conventional policy rate are all linked tooutput and inflation, while Islamic policy rate are not linked to output and inflation.In addition, the interest rate, credit and conventional interbank rate shocks give negative and permanent impacts to inflation and output, while PLS, financing and Islamic interbank PLS, as well as SBIS(Central Bank Shariah Certificate) as Islamic policy rate shocks give positive and permanent impacts to inflation and output. SBI (Central Bank Certificate) as conventional policy givespositive impact to inflation and negative impact to output.Keywords: Monetary transmission mechanism, Interest rate pass through, Conventional Banking, Islamic BankingJEL Classification: E43, E52, G21, G28

scholarly journals Asymmetric Effect in the Relationship between Oil Prices and Activity: An Estimate of the VECM Model for Eight Emerging Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 92
Author(s):  
Mouldi Djelassi ◽  
Mdalla Omrani
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Oil Shocks ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Asymmetrical Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

In this study, we attempt to study the impact of oil shocks on the economic activity of eight emerging countries with different importing and exporting profiles, targeting and non-targeting inflation and thus verify the hypothesis of non-linearity. To do this, we used the VECM methodology. In addition to oil prices (the linear variation and its volatility, positive and negative movements in prices), we introduced the interest rate and industrial production as a proxy variable of the activity. The result shows that the economies of these countries are generally more sensitive to net increases in oil prices than to their volatility. Thus, the asymmetrical impact is clearly proven in the results especially in the long run. If the rise in oil prices negatively affects production, the decline does not favor its reshuffle. Indeed, if increases in oil prices reduce economic growth, their declines have no expansionary effect. In addition, the distinction between exporting and importing countries is not obvious. Furthermore, the addition of interest rates indicates that the first prefigurations indicate a tightening of interest rates by the central banks of the target and non-target countries selected in our study.

scholarly journals The Ability of Selected European Countries to Face the Impending Economic Crisis Caused by COVID-19 in the Context of the Global Economic Crisis of 2008

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 179
Author(s):  
Róbert Oravský ◽  
Peter Tóth ◽  
Anna Bánociová
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Confidence Index ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

This paper is devoted to the ability of selected European countries to face the potential economic crisis caused by COVID-19. Just as other pandemics in the past (e.g., SARS, Spanish influenza, etc.) have had negative economic effects on countries, the current COVID-19 pandemic is causing the beginning of another economic crisis where countries need to take measures to mitigate the economic effects. In our analysis, we focus on the impact of selected indicators on the GDP of European countries using a linear panel regression to identify significant indicators to set appropriate policies to eliminate potential negative consequences on economic growth due to the current recession. The European countries are divided into four groups according to the measures they took in the fiscal consolidation of the last economic crisis of 2008. In the analysis, we observed how the economic crisis influences GDP, country indebtedness, deficit, tax collection, interest rates, and the consumer confidence index. Our findings include that corporate income tax recorded the biggest decline among other tax collections. The interest rate grew in the group of countries most at risk from the economic crisis, while the interest rate fell in the group of countries that seemed to be safe for investors. The consumer confidence index can be considered interesting, as it fell sharply in the group of countries affected only minimally by the crisis (Switzerland, Finland).

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