scholarly journals Vaccination strategies for a seasonal epidemic: a simple SIR model

2021 ◽  
Vol Volume 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
G Nakamura ◽  
B Grammaticos ◽  
M Badoual
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Strategy ◽  
Current Practice ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Spatial Evolution ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Seasonal Epidemic

We model the effect of vaccination on an epidemic which, like the current one, exhibits a climate-induced seasonality. Our study is carried out using a simple SIR model. One important feature of our approach is that of recruitment: by gradually introducing susceptible individuals we mimic the spatial evolution of the epidemic, which is absent in the classic SIR. We focus on the effect of vaccination on the number of hospital admissions. We show that any delay in the vaccination campaign results in an increase of hospitalisations, and if one tries to palliate for the delay by increasing the vaccination rate, this results in an inflation of the number of necessary doses. Considering a multi-agegroup population we show that it is advantageous to prioritise the vaccination of the older groups (upholding thus the current practice). Finally, we investigate whether a vaccination of the younger population based on awareness can be an optimal strategy, concluding by a negative.

Nonelective hospital admissions, discharge disposition, and health services utilization in epilepsy patients: A population‐based study

Epilepsia ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 61 (9) ◽  
pp. 1969-1978
Author(s):  
Churl‐Su Kwon ◽  
Bonnie Wong ◽  
Parul Agarwal ◽  
Jung‐Yi Lin ◽  
Madhu Mazumdar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Services ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Health Services Utilization ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Population Based Study ◽  
Services Utilization ◽  
Discharge Disposition

scholarly journals Cohort profile: CROSS-TRACKS: a population-based open cohort across healthcare sectors in Denmark

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. e039996
Author(s):  
Anders Hammerich Riis ◽  
Pia Kjær Kristensen ◽  
Matilde Grøndahl Petersen ◽  
Ninna Hinchely Ebdrup ◽  
Simon Meyer Lauritsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Primary Care ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Fertility Treatment ◽  
Study Patient ◽  
Transfer Payment ◽  
Sociodemographic Characteristics ◽  
Patient Pathways

PurposeThis paper describes the open cohort CROSS-TRACKS, which comprises population-based data from primary care, secondary care and national registries to study patient pathways and transitions across sectors while adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics.ParticipantsA total of 221 283 individuals resided in the four Danish municipalities that constituted the catchment area of Horsens Regional Hospital in 2012–2018. A total of 96% of the population used primary care, 35% received at least one transfer payment and 66% was in contact with a hospital at least once in the period. Additional clinical information is available for hospital contacts (eg, alcohol intake, smoking status, body mass index and blood pressure). A total of 23% (n=8191) of individuals aged ≥65 years had at least one potentially preventable hospital admission, and 73% (n=5941) of these individuals had more than one.Findings to dateThe cohort is currently used for research projects in epidemiology and artificial intelligence. These projects comprise a prediction model for potentially preventable hospital admissions, a clinical decision support system based on artificial intelligence, prevention of medication errors in the transition between sectors, health behaviour and sociodemographic characteristics of men and women prior to fertility treatment, and a recently published study applying machine learning methods for early detection of sepsis.Future plansThe CROSS-TRACKS cohort will be expanded to comprise the entire Central Denmark Region consisting of 1.3 million residents. The cohort can provide new knowledge on how to best organise interventions across healthcare sectors and prevent potentially preventable hospital admissions. Such knowledge would benefit both the individual citizen and society as a whole.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of delaying vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 assuming unlimited vaccine supply

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Amaku ◽  
Dimas Tadeu Covas ◽  
Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho ◽  
Raymundo Soares Azevedo ◽  
Eduardo Massad
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
The State ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
The World ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background At the moment we have more than 177 million cases and 3.8 million deaths (as of June 2021) around the world and vaccination represents the only hope to control the pandemic. Imperfections in planning vaccine acquisition and difficulties in implementing distribution among the population, however, have hampered the control of the virus so far. Methods We propose a new mathematical model to estimate the impact of vaccination delay against the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the number of cases and deaths due to the disease in Brazil. We apply the model to Brazil as a whole and to the State of Sao Paulo, the most affected by COVID-19 in Brazil. We simulated the model for the populations of the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole, varying the scenarios related to vaccine efficacy and compliance from the populations. Results The model projects that, in the absence of vaccination, almost 170 thousand deaths and more than 350 thousand deaths will occur by the end of 2021 for Sao Paulo and Brazil, respectively. If in contrast, Sao Paulo and Brazil had enough vaccine supply and so started a vaccination campaign in January with the maximum vaccination rate, compliance and efficacy, they could have averted more than 112 thousand deaths and 127 thousand deaths, respectively. In addition, for each month of delay the number of deaths increases monotonically in a logarithmic fashion, for both the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole. Conclusions Our model shows that the current delay in the vaccination schedules that is observed in many countries has serious consequences in terms of mortality by the disease and should serve as an alert to health authorities to speed the process up such that the highest number of people to be immunized is reached in the shortest period of time.

Correlates of Improved Influenza Vaccination of Healthcare Personnel: A Survey of Hospitals in Louisiana

2013 ◽  
Vol 34 (7) ◽  
pp. 723-729 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kayla L. Fricke ◽  
Mariella M. Gastañaduy ◽  
Renee Klos ◽  
Rodolfo E. Bégué
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care Unit ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Influenza Vaccination ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Healthcare Personnel ◽  
Patient Contact ◽  
Hospital Type ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Item Questionnaire

Objective.To describe practices for influenza vaccination of healthcare personnel (HCP) with emphasis on correlates of increased vaccination rates.Design.Survey.Participants.Volunteer sample of hospitals in Louisiana.Methods.All hospitals in Louisiana were invited to participate. A 17-item questionnaire inquired about the hospital type, patients served, characteristics of the vaccination campaign, and the resulting vaccination rate.Results.Of 254 hospitals, 153 (60%) participated and were included in the 124 responses that were received. Most programs (64%) required that HCP either receive the vaccine or sign a declination form, and the rest were exclusively voluntary (36%); no program made vaccination a condition of employment. The median vaccination rate was 67%, and the vaccination rate was higher among hospitals that were accredited by the Joint Commission; provided acute care; served children, pregnant women, oncology patients, or intensive care unit patients; required a signed declination form; or imposed consequences for unvaccinated HCP (the most common of which was to require that a mask be worn on patient contact). Hospitals that provided free vaccine, made vaccine widely available, advertised the program extensively, required a declination form, and imposed consequences had the highest vaccination rates (median, 86%; range, 81%–91%).Conclusions.The rate of influenza vaccination of HCP remains low among the hospitals surveyed. Recommended practices may not be enough to reach 90% vaccination rates unless a signed declination requirement and consequences are implemented. Wearing a mask is a strong consequence. Demanding influenza vaccination as a condition of employment was not reported as a practice by the participating hospitals.

scholarly journals COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Nepal, emerging UK variant and futuristic vaccination strategies to combat the ongoing pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
pp. 102037
Author(s):  
Ranjit Sah ◽  
Asmita Priyadarshini Khatiwada ◽  
Sunil Shrestha ◽  
K.C. Bhuvan ◽  
Ruchi Tiwari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Vaccination Strategies

scholarly journals Public health impact of delaying second dose of BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 covid-19 vaccine: simulation agent based modeling study

BMJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. n1087
Author(s):  
Santiago Romero-Brufau ◽  
Ayush Chopra ◽  
Alex J Ryu ◽  
Esma Gel ◽  
Ramesh Raskar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Cumulative Mortality ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Dose Strategy ◽  
Modeling Study

AbstractObjectiveTo estimate population health outcomes with delayed second dose versus standard schedule of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination.DesignSimulation agent based modeling study.SettingSimulated population based on real world US county.ParticipantsThe simulation included 100 000 agents, with a representative distribution of demographics and occupations. Networks of contacts were established to simulate potentially infectious interactions though occupation, household, and random interactions.InterventionsSimulation of standard covid-19 vaccination versus delayed second dose vaccination prioritizing the first dose. The simulation runs were replicated 10 times. Sensitivity analyses included first dose vaccine efficacy of 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, and 90% after day 12 post-vaccination; vaccination rate of 0.1%, 0.3%, and 1% of population per day; assuming the vaccine prevents only symptoms but not asymptomatic spread (that is, non-sterilizing vaccine); and an alternative vaccination strategy that implements delayed second dose for people under 65 years of age, but not until all those above this age have been vaccinated.Main outcome measuresCumulative covid-19 mortality, cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections, and cumulative hospital admissions due to covid-19 over 180 days.ResultsOver all simulation replications, the median cumulative mortality per 100 000 for standard dosing versus delayed second dose was 226 v 179, 233 v 207, and 235 v 236 for 90%, 80%, and 70% first dose efficacy, respectively. The delayed second dose strategy was optimal for vaccine efficacies at or above 80% and vaccination rates at or below 0.3% of the population per day, under both sterilizing and non-sterilizing vaccine assumptions, resulting in absolute cumulative mortality reductions between 26 and 47 per 100 000. The delayed second dose strategy for people under 65 performed consistently well under all vaccination rates tested.ConclusionsA delayed second dose vaccination strategy, at least for people aged under 65, could result in reduced cumulative mortality under certain conditions.

scholarly journals National record-linkage study of hospital admissions for schizophrenia in childhood and adolescence in England

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olena Seminog ◽  
Uy Hoang ◽  
Michael Goldacre ◽  
Anthony James
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Linkage Study ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Childhood And Adolescence ◽  
Childhood Onset ◽  
Affective Psychosis ◽  
Health Service Provision ◽  
Childhood Onset Schizophrenia ◽  
Icd 10

Abstract Background There is a lack of information on changes in hospital admission rates for childhood-onset schizophrenia (COS), or on patient characteristics, to inform clinical research and health service provision. Aims To report age- and sex-specific incidence rates of hospital admissions and day patient care for schizophrenia (ICD-10 F20) and non-affective psychosis (ICD-10 F20-29), by year of occurrence and age, in childhood and adolescence. Methods Population-based study using person-linked data for England (available 2001–2016); time-periods in single years and 4-year groups. Results Hospitalised incidence for schizophrenia increased with increasing age, from 0.03 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02–0.05) and 0.01 (0–0.01) per 100,000 in, respectively, males and females aged 5–12 years, to 3.67 (3.44–3.91) in males and 1.58 (1.43–1.75) in females aged 13–17 years. There was no gender difference in hospitalised incidence rates in children aged 5–12, but in 13–17 years old, there was a male excess. Rates for schizophrenia were stable over time in 5–12 years old. In ages 13–17, rates for schizophrenia decreased between 2001–2004 and 2013–2016 in males, from 6.65 (6.04–7.31) down to 1.40 (1.13–1.73), and in females from 2.42 (2.05–2.83) to 1.18 (0.92–1.48). The hospitalisation rates for schizophrenia and non-affective psychosis, combined, in 13–17 years old decreased in males from 14.20 (13.30–15.14) in 2001–2004 to 10.77 (9.97–11.60) in 2013–2016, but increased in females from 7.49 (6.83–8.20) to 10.16 (9.38–11.00). Conclusions The study confirms that childhood-onset schizophrenia is extremely rare, with only 32 cases identified over a 15-year period in the whole of England. The incidence of schizophrenia and non-affective psychosis increased substantially in adolescence; however, the marked reduction in the proportion of those diagnosed with schizophrenia in this age group suggests a possible change in diagnostic practice.

scholarly journals Childhood predictors of adult medically unexplained hospitalisations

2000 ◽  
Vol 176 (3) ◽  
pp. 273-280 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Hotopf ◽  
Charlotte Wilson-Jones ◽  
Richard Mayou ◽  
Michael Wadsworth ◽  
Simon Wessely
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Physical Symptoms ◽  
Childhood Experiences ◽  
Persistent Abdominal Pain ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Medically Unexplained ◽  
Health And Development ◽  
Physical Diseases ◽  
Unexplained Physical Symptoms

BackgroundIt has been suggested that adults with medically unexplained physical symptoms experienced greater ill-health then others (either in themselves or their families) during childhood.AimsTo test these hypotheses.MethodWe used data from the Medical Research Council (MRC) National Survey of Health and Development, a population-based cohort study established in 1946 (n=5362). Subjects were followed from birth in 1946 until 1989 (age 43 years). As outcome, we used operationally defined medically unexplained hospital admissions at age 15–43 years. Exposure variables included childhood illness, and illness in parents during the childhood of the subjects.ResultsThe risk set (n=4603) comprised individuals still in the Survey at age 15. Ninety-five unexplained hospital admissions were identified. Subjects whose mothers reported below-average health in the father were at increased risk of subsequent unexplained admissions. Below average reported health in the mother was not associated with this increased risk. Defined physical diseases in childhood were not associated, but persistent abdominal pain at age 7–15 years was.ConclusionsUnexplained hospital admissions are associated with certain childhood experiences of illness, but defined physical illness in childhood is not a risk factor.

scholarly journals Association between the frequency of admission for pneumonia and the incidence of in-hospital cardiac arrest: A population-based case–control study

2020 ◽  
pp. 102490792096409
Author(s):  
Yu-Rung Hsu ◽  
I-Ju Tsai ◽  
Wei-Kung Chen ◽  
Kuan-Ho Lin
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Early Prevention ◽  
Insurance Program ◽  
Taiwan National Health Insurance ◽  
Hospital Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Control Study

Objective: To examine the association between the frequency of admission for pneumonia and the incidence of in-hospital cardiac arrest. Methods: We enrolled 1739 patients with in-hospital cardiac arrest and 6956 randomly selected age- and sex-matched control patients using a longitudinal claims sub-dataset from 1996 to 2011 for 1 million people randomly selected from the population covered by the Taiwan National Health Insurance program. The odds ratio of in-hospital cardiac arrest associated with the number of hospital admissions for pneumonia was calculated. Results: During the 15-year study period, the in-hospital cardiac arrest group had a higher frequency (28.4% vs 8.1%, p < 0.0001) of admission for pneumonia compared to the control group. The comorbidities of heart failure, chronic pulmonary disease, diabetes, renal failure, liver disease, lymphoma, alcohol abuse, and drug abuse were higher in the in-hospital cardiac arrest group than in the control group. In addition, the risk of in-hospital cardiac arrest was 3.37 for the patients admitted for pneumonia, and the risk of in-hospital cardiac arrest increased for patients with multiple admissions for pneumonia (once, 3.03; two times, 3.44; and three times, 4.42). In cross-analysis, the more admissions for pneumonia and the greater the number of comorbidities, the higher the risk of in-hospital cardiac arrest (odds ratio = 21.37, 95% confidence interval = 13.6–33.9 for patients with more than three admissions for pneumonia and more than three comorbidities). Conclusion: Higher admission frequency for pneumonia was associated with a higher risk of in-hospital cardiac arrest. Awareness of this risk factor may help clinicians provide early prevention or detection for patients with potential in-hospital cardiac arrest risks immediately after admission.

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