scholarly journals Probability of infectious disease in humans during epidemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
AM Karmishin ◽  
IV Borisevich ◽  
VI Skvortsova ◽  
AA Goryaev ◽  
SM Yudin

Popular SIR models and their modifications used to generate predictions about epidemics and, specifically, the COVID-19 pandemic, are inadequate. The aim of this study was to find the laws describing the probability of infection in a biological object. Using theoretical methods of research based on the probability theory, we constructed the laws describing the probability of infection in a human depending on the infective dose and considering the temporal characteristics of a given infection. The so-called generalized time-factor law, which factors in the time of onset and the duration of an infectious disease, was found to be the most general. Among its special cases are the law describing the probability of infection developing by some point in time t, depending on the infective dose, and the law that does not factor in the time of onset. The study produced a full list of quantitative characteristics of pathogen virulence. The laws described in the study help to solve practical tasks and should lie at the core of mathematical epidemiological modeling.

2011 ◽  
pp. 122-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Avdasheva ◽  
A. Shastitko

The article focuses on economic analysis in cases of violation of the Russian antimonopoly legislation. It presents quantitative characteristics of various tools of economic analysis, prescribed by the rules of analysis and assessment of competition, developed by the Federal Antimonopoly Service. They are based on a small sample of cases filed by the Russian competition authorities. Sources of demand for higher standards of economic analysis in cases of violation of antitrust laws are under consideration.


Author(s):  
Markus Krötzsch

To reason with existential rules (a.k.a. tuple-generating dependencies), one often computes universal models. Among the many such models of different structure and cardinality, the core is arguably the “best”. Especially for finitely satisfiable theories, where the core is the unique smallest universal model, it has advantages in query answering, non-monotonic reasoning, and data exchange. Unfortunately, computing cores is difficult and not supported by most reasoners. We therefore propose ways of computing cores using practically implemented methods from rule reasoning and answer set programming. Our focus is on cases where the standard chase algorithm produces a core. We characterise this desirable situation in general terms that apply to a large class of cores, derive concrete approaches for decidable special cases, and generalise these approaches to non-monotonic extensions of existential rules.


Author(s):  
Yishai Beer

This book seeks to revitalize the humanitarian mission of the international law governing armed conflict, which is being frustrated due to states’ actual practice. In order to achieve its two aims—creating an environment in which full abidance by the law becomes an attainable norm, thus facilitating the second and more important aim of reducing human suffering—it calls for the acknowledgment of realpolitik considerations that dictate states’ and militaries’ behavior. This requires recognition of the core interests of law-abiding states, fighting in their own self-defense—those that, from their militaries’ professional perspective, are essential in order to exercise their defense. Internalizing the importance of existential security interests, when drawing the contours of the law, should not automatically come at the expense of the core values of the humanitarian agenda—for example, the distinction rule. Rather, it allows more room for the humanitarian arena. The suggested tool to allow for such an improved dialogue is the standards and principles of military professionalism. Militaries function in a professional manner; they respect their respective doctrines, operational principles, fighting techniques, and values. Their performances are not random or incidental. The suggested paradigm surfaces and leverages the constraining elements hidden in military professionalism. It suggests a new paradigm in balancing the principles of military necessity and humanity, it deals with the legality of a preemptive strike and the leveraging of military strategy as a constraining tool, and it offers a normative framework for introducing deterrence within the current contours of the law.


Legal Theory ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-34
Author(s):  
João Alberto de Oliveira Lima ◽  
Cristine Griffo ◽  
João Paulo A. Almeida ◽  
Giancarlo Guizzardi ◽  
Marcio Iorio Aranha

Abstract At the core of Hohfeld's contribution to legal theory is a conceptual framework for the analysis of the legal positions occupied by agents in intersubjective legal relations. Hohfeld presented a system of eight “fundamental” concepts relying on notions of opposition and correlation. Throughout the years, a number of authors have followed Hohfeld in applying the notion of opposition to analyze legal concepts. Many of these authors have accounted for Hohfeld's theory in direct analogy with the standard deontic hexagon. This paper reviews some of these accounts and extends them employing recent developments from opposition theory. In particular, we are able to extend application of opposition theory to an open conception of the law. We also account for the implications of abandoning the assumption of conflict-freedom and admitting seemingly conflicting legal positions. This enables a fuller analysis of Hohfeld's conceptual analytical framework. We also offer a novel analysis of Hohfeld's power positions.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatma Saleh ◽  
Jovin Kitau ◽  
Flemming Konradsen ◽  
Leonard E. G. Mboera ◽  
Karin L. Schiøler

Abstract Background Disease surveillance is a cornerstone of outbreak detection and control. Evaluation of a disease surveillance system is important to ensure its performance over time. The aim of this study was to assess the performance of the core and support functions of the Zanzibar integrated disease surveillance and response (IDSR) system to determine its capacity for early detection of and response to infectious disease outbreaks. Methods This cross-sectional descriptive study involved 10 districts of Zanzibar and 45 public and private health facilities. A mixed-methods approach was used to collect data. This included document review, observations and interviews with surveillance personnel using a modified World Health Organization generic questionnaire for assessing national disease surveillance systems. Results The performance of the IDSR system in Zanzibar was suboptimal particularly with respect to early detection of epidemics. Weak laboratory capacity at all levels greatly hampered detection and confirmation of cases and outbreaks. None of the health facilities or laboratories could confirm all priority infectious diseases outlined in the Zanzibar IDSR guidelines. Data reporting was weakest at facility level, while data analysis was inadequate at all levels (facility, district and national). The performance of epidemic preparedness and response was generally unsatisfactory despite availability of rapid response teams and budget lines for epidemics in each district. The support functions (supervision, training, laboratory, communication and coordination, human resources, logistic support) were inadequate particularly at the facility level. Conclusions The IDSR system in Zanzibar is weak and inadequate for early detection and response to infectious disease epidemics. The performance of both core and support functions are hampered by several factors including inadequate human and material resources as well as lack of motivation for IDSR implementation within the healthcare delivery system. In the face of emerging epidemics, strengthening of the IDSR system, including allocation of adequate resources, should be a priority in order to safeguard human health and economic stability across the archipelago of Zanzibar.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Katharina Pistor

Abstract In this brief introduction, I summarize the core themes of my book “The Code of Capital: How the Law Creates Wealth and Inequality”. Capital, I argue, is coded in law – predominantly in a handful of private law institutions. By relying on legal coding techniques, asset holders invoke the right to enforce claims against others, if necessary with the help of the state’s coercive power.


2019 ◽  
Vol 286 (1906) ◽  
pp. 20191220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victoria L. Pike ◽  
Katrina A. Lythgoe ◽  
Kayla C. King

Climate change and anthropogenic activity are currently driving large changes in nutritional availability across ecosystems, with consequences for infectious disease. An increase in host nutrition could lead to more resources for hosts to expend on the immune system or for pathogens to exploit. In this paper, we report a meta-analysis of studies on host–pathogen systems across the tree of life, to examine the impact of host nutritional quality and quantity on pathogen virulence. We did not find broad support across studies for a one-way effect of nutrient availability on pathogen virulence. We thus discuss a hypothesis that there is a balance between the effect of host nutrition on the immune system and on pathogen resources, with the pivot point of the balance differing for vertebrate and invertebrate hosts. Our results suggest that variation in nutrition, caused by natural or anthropogenic factors, can have diverse effects on infectious disease outcomes across species.


2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank J. Garcia

Abstract International courts play a key role in the attainment of global social justice objectives. The core contributions of international adjudication to global social justice are, not surprisingly, in line with the core functions of adjudication: the enforcement of substantive rights in a setting of fair procedures. Fully realizing the potential for justice inherent in this role is limited, however, by certain institutional and structural features unique to international adjudication. This article analyzes these opportunities, challenges, and background conditions in the context of international economic law (IEL) adjudication, where the results are mixed. For example, one can see in the case of the World Trade Organization (WTO) evidence of institutional and doctrinal evolution, albeit uneven, toward more substantively progressive outcomes. In the case of the foreign investment regime, however, one can see evidence of this regime retarding global social justice rather than advancing it. This makes it all the more important that all judges and arbitrators in IEL adjudications consider carefully the interpretive, remedial, and progressive roles that principles of justice can play in adjudication, particularly in the face of any deficiencies in procedural or substantive justice in the law or forum within which they operate. The work of IEL adjudication offers a number of possible sites for interpretive practices according to principles of justice, such as the resolution of disputes involves difficult interpretive questions centered around fairness and unfairness; equality and inequality of treatment; the scope of exceptions; and the meaning of evolutionary terms. Capitalizing on these opportunities and moving IEL adjudication toward global social justice requires what effective judging always requires: a vision of the goals of the institutions and regimes in question; an understanding of the social issues the regime either was created to address or touches incidentally through its actions and externalities; careful attention to the relationships among the relevant actors and their expectations; and a sophisticated understanding of the legal context and legislative history of the law in question.


2017 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zabaidah Haji Kamaludin

An Islamic system of governance is an ideal system, which is a tantalising objective for many Muslims but often times not achieved in practice. Countries may call themselves ‘Islamic’ but the core element of Islamicity, that of values such as compassion, equity and justice may not have breached the consciousness of their leaders and citizens. Sometimes it is individuals who act as the catalyst for sparking action. For a Muslim, it is his īmān that serves to light his conscience, and guiding him the dispensation of his everyday tasks within his organisation. This individualised īmān may at times serve as a small but critical factor tilting the different organisational functions of government towards integrations under an Islamic system of governance. This paper recounts the challenges of a Muslim engaging in legal issues in a non-Islamic context, seeking to help enable his organisation to undertake the role of incorporating non-Islamic law with Islamic values.


2007 ◽  
Vol 09 (03) ◽  
pp. 515-525
Author(s):  
KIMMO ERIKSSON ◽  
JONAS SJÖSTRAND

The Swedish rent control system creates a white market for swapping rental contracts and a black market for selling rental contracts. Empirical data suggests that in this black-and-white market some people act according to utility functions that are both discontinuous and locally decreasing in money. We discuss Quinzii's theorem for the nonemptiness of the core of generalized house-swapping games, and show how it can be extended to cover the Swedish game. In a second part, we show how this theorem of Quinzii and her second theorem on nonemptiness of the core in two-sided models are both special cases of a more general theorem.


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