Impact of Macro Economic Indicators affecting Indian Stock Markets: Evidence from Pre- and Post-Crisis

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandeepa Kaur
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Correlation Factor ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Indian Stock Market

Volatility is quite evident in stock market fluctuations and often economic factors results in share prices movements. However, there are some fundamental elements, which have a strong impact over the fluctuations of the stock market by and large. This study empirically tested the interconnection between macro-economic factors and Indian stock market. By applying multivariate regression analysis, the effect of macro-economic factors on Indian stock market is tested. The explanatory variables are Wholesale Price Index (WPI), Index of Industrial Production (IIP), Money Supply (M3), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Exchange Rate (ER), Call Money Rate (CMR), Gold Price (GP), Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) and Trade Balance (TB) while explained factors are average monthly closing prices of BSE Sensex and S&P Nifty. Further, for testing the interconnection between macro-economic factors and Indian stock market Pearson's correlation, Factor Analysis and Multiple Regression test have been applied. Three variables namely Economy Rates, Macro Environment and Foreign Investment are obtained by using Principal Component Technique (varimax pivot). It shows that all elements play critical role in affecting the stock market.

Do Indian stock market sentiments impact contemporaneous returns?

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 332-346
Author(s):  
Divya Aggarwal ◽  
Pitabas Mohanty
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Sentiments ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of Indian investor sentiments on contemporaneous stock returns of Bombay Stock Exchange, National Stock Exchange and various sectoral indices in India by developing a sentiment index. Design/methodology/approach The study uses principal component analysis to develop a sentiment index as a proxy for Indian stock market sentiments over a time frame from April 1996 to January 2017. It uses an exploratory approach to identify relevant proxies in building a sentiment index using indirect market measures and macro variables of Indian and US markets. Findings The study finds that there is a significant positive correlation between the sentiment index and stock index returns. Sectors which are more dependent on institutional fund flows show a significant impact of the change in sentiments on their respective sectoral indices. Research limitations/implications The study has used data at a monthly frequency. Analysing higher frequency data can explain short-term temporal dynamics between sentiments and returns better. Further studies can be done to explore whether sentiments can be used to predict stock returns. Practical implications The results imply that one can develop profitable trading strategies by investing in sectors like metals and capital goods, which are more susceptible to generate positive returns when the sentiment index is high. Originality/value The study supplements the existing literature on the impact of investor sentiments on contemporaneous stock returns in the context of a developing market. It identifies relevant proxies of investor sentiments for the Indian stock market.

Cluster Analysis of the Chrysalis Silk Production Provinces in China

2013 ◽  
Vol 796 ◽  
pp. 323-326
Author(s):  
Huan Wang ◽  
Ting Ting Tao ◽  
Wan Chun Fei
Keyword(s):  
Principal Components ◽  
Clustering Analysis ◽  
Structural Adjustment ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Basic Reference ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Production Areas

In this article, the yield of mulberry cocoon, the output of raw silk, the output of silk fabric, the consumer price index, the GDP per capita and the per capita income from 1999 to 2011 were analyzed for their principal components on the major production areas of cocoon and silk in China. The principal component analysis can ensure the smallest loss of the original data, to replace the multi-variables with a few synthetic variables, to simplify the data structure, and objectively determine the weights. The distances and similarities between provincial principal components, which were regarded as multivariable time series, were analyzed and computed, and clustering analysis were carried out. The result can be used as a basic reference for the industrial configuration and structural adjustment of silk in China.

scholarly journals ESTIMATION OF LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP OF INFLATION (CPI & WPI), AND OIL PRICES WITH KSE-100 INDEX: EVIDENCE FROM JOHANSEN MULTIVARIATE COINTEGRATION APPROACH

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 567-588 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rizwan RAHEEM AHMED ◽  
Jolita VVEINHARDT ◽  
Dalia ŠTREIMIKIENĖ ◽  
Saghir Pervaiz GHAURI ◽  
Nawaz AHMAD
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Wholesale Price Index ◽  
Relationship Of

This research is an attempt to framework the applied strides to evaluate the long run relationship among commonly used inflation proxies induces such as, wholesale price index (WPI) and consumer price index (CPI), and crude oil price (COP) with KSE100 index returns. In this research we used monthly data for the time period from July 1995 to June 2016, and thus, in this way total 252 observations have been considered. Time series have been made stationary by applying ADF and PP tests at first difference. Johansen multivariate conintegration approach was used to test the long-term association amongst the considered macroeconomic variables. The results indicated that CPI and COP significantly affect KSE100 index returns that indicated CPI along with COP have foreseen power to impact KSE100 index. In contrary, the results of WPI and COP do not have long run relationship with KSE100 index in case of Pakistani economy. Results of variance decomposition exhibited that the index of LKSE100 was realistically rarer exogenous in connection to distinctive factors, as around 92.31% of its variation was explained due to its own specific shocks. It is concluded that CPI and COP can impact the KSE100 index returns. It is confirmed by the results of impulse response function that there is a positive and long run relationship between KSE100 returns and consumer price index (proxy of inflation) and international crude oil prices.

scholarly journals Examining the Effects of Food and Product Production Values and Production Added Value on Inflation Over the Years: Empirical Evidence for Turkey

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isil Tellalbasi Menguc
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Production Values ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Production Value ◽  
Positive Effect

In this study, it is aimed to examine the effects of food and product production values on inflation. In the study, the variables of the World Bank Country Reports between 1991-2019 Consumer Price Index, Wholesale Price Index, Food Production Index, Product Production Index and Production Value Added were used. According to the results obtained from the study, there is a statistically significant relationship between TUFE and TOFE and GUE, UUE and UKD variables (p <0.01). According to the results of controlled correlation analysis, the effects of food and product production indexes on consumer and wholesale inflation level are not statistically significant (p> 0.05). The effect of UKD and GUE parameters on inflation is statistically significant (p <0.05). Explanation power of both models is very high. According to the regression coefficients, UKD has a negative effect, and GUE has a positive effect. The results show that production has a positive effect on inflation, while production value added has a decreasing effect on consumer and wholesale prices. These results show that the production in our country is actually high cost and its added value is low.

scholarly journals Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Markets: Evidence from Emerging Markets

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Ramadan Barakat ◽  
Sara H. Elgazzar ◽  
Khaled M. Hanafy
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Market Index ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Shed Light

<p>The key objective of this study is to shed light on the relationship between the stock market and macroeconomic factors in two emerging economies (Egypt and Tunisia) for the period from January 1998 to January 2014. Results indicated that there is a causal relationship in Egypt between market index and consumer price index (CPI), exchange rate, money supply, and interest rate. The same goes for Tunisia except for CPI, which had no causal relationship with the market index. Results also revealed that the four macroeconomic are co-integrated with the stock market in both countries.</p>

Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in India: A New Keynesian Phillips Curve Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 144-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bhavesh Salunkhe ◽  
Anuradha Patnaik
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Moderate Degree ◽  
New Keynesian Phillips Curve ◽  
Price Inflation

The present study estimates various specifications of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) models for India over 1996Q2 to 2017Q2 using Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation, separately. The empirical results suggest that the data support all the specifications of the Phillips curve models based on both the CPI and WPI inflations. However, the backward looking and hybrid models provide robust results for both the inflation indices. While the forward-looking behaviour dominates the CPI inflation trajectory, the backward-looking behaviour greatly influences the trajectory of WPI inflation. Also, a small-to-moderate degree of persistence is evident in both the CPI and WPI inflation. The output gap, which mainly represents the demand side pressures, turns up the major force determining both the CPI and WPI inflations. Besides the output gap, real effective exchange rate (reer), international crude oil price inflation, global non-fuel commodity price inflation and rainfall have a modest impact on the CPI and WPI inflations. JEL Classification: E12, E52, C36, C14

scholarly journals Consumer Attitudes About No Repricing in Supermarkets

1977 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-106
Author(s):  
Farrell E. Jensen ◽  
Frederick A. Perkins
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Consumer Attitudes ◽  
Traditional Practices ◽  
Price Increases

In 1974 the price level for food as measured by the Consumer Price Index increased by 14.4 percent. During this period supermarkets received wholesale price increases on up to 800 individual lines of merchandise per week. In keeping with traditional practices the industry would pass the wholesale price increases to the consumer by pricing the new merchandise and existing shelf inventory to reflect higher wholesale costs. It was not uncommon during this period for consumers to find two, three, or more old price markings on an item replaced by a higher price.

scholarly journals Nexus Between Macro Economic Factors And S&P Sensex Movements

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 1258-1263
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Market Economic ◽  
Stationarity Test ◽  
Indian Stock Market

The Indian stock market is vibrant and dynamic in nature; it has been going through many economic reforms structural changes after liberalization Indian economy since 1991 to till date. The Indian economy follows free market economic system, which enhance the scope of investing into stock market. Thereby stock market (Sensex) performance influenced by macroeconomic fundamentals, the present paper has investigate the nexus between Sensex and macro economic factors GDP growth rate, Exchange rate, inflation rate, Gold Prices, IIP and FII. The stationarity between macro economic factors and Sensex movements measured through employing ADF stationarity test, and Engle-Granger Co-integration to test the long run relation.

scholarly journals US Stock Market And Macroeconomic Factors

2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 325 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Jareño ◽  
Loredana Negrut
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Significant Relationships ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Relevant Factors

<p>This paper analyzes the relationship between the US stock market and some relevant US macroeconomic factors, such as gross domestic product, the consumer price index, the industrial production index, the unemployment rate and long-term interest rates. All the relevant factors show statistically significant relationships with the stock market except for the consumer price index, and the signs are consistent with the findings of previous literature.</p>

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