Polynomial modeling of emergency department arrivals: An analysis of local and national utilization patterns

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-196
Author(s):  
Mitchell Karpman, PhD ◽  
Nandakumar Menon, MD ◽  
Justin Turcotte, PhD, MBA
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Polynomial Regression ◽  
Medical Center ◽  
Data File ◽  
Interaction Effects ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Hierarchical Regression ◽  
Institutional Data ◽  
Main Effects

Emergency department (ED) overcrowding is a national problem that is associated with ambulance diversion, decreased patient and provider satisfaction and poor patient outcomes. This study presents a novel approach to modeling the relationship between time of day, day of week, and ED arrivals using a hierarchical polynomial regression model. A series of hierarchical regression models were created to determine polynomial effects and capture the covariability (defined as R2) of the relationships from the 2009 to 2017 National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS) Emergency Department Public Use Data File and institutional data from a regional medical center from 2018 to 2019. The following hierarchical regression models were constructed: cubic main effects, cubic interaction effects, quartic main effects, quartic interaction effects, quintic main effects, and quantic interaction effects. Based on maximal improvement in R2 and significance of each of the four effects in both the national and institutional data sets, the quartic main effects model was determined to be optimal for describing ED arrival patterns. In alignment with prior studies, significantly higher ED arrival volumes were observed on Mondays in comparison to all other weekdays.

scholarly journals Feasibility and Effectiveness of Recruiting Latinos in Decídetexto—A Smoking Cessation Clinical Trial from an Emergency Department Patient Registry

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (20) ◽  
pp. 10859
Author(s):  
Evelyn Arana-Chicas ◽  
Francisco Cartujano-Barrera ◽  
Chinwe Ogedegbe ◽  
Edward F. Ellerbeck ◽  
Lisa Sanderson Cox ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Trial ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Smoking Cessation ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Primary Outcome ◽  
Medical Center ◽  
Emergency Department Patient ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Patient Registry ◽  
Day Of The Week

There is an underrepresentation of Latinos in smoking cessation clinical trials. This study describes the feasibility and effectiveness of recruiting Latino smokers in the U.S. from an emergency department (ED) patient registry into a randomized smoking cessation clinical trial. Recruitment occurred from the Hackensack University Medical Center ED. Potential participants were contacted from a patient registry. The primary outcome was whether the participant responded to a call or text. Secondary outcomes included the best day of the week, week of the month, and time of day to obtain a response. Of the 1680 potential participants, 1132 were called (67.5%), while 548 (32.5%) were texted. For calls, response rate was higher compared to text (26.4% vs 6.4%; p < 0.001). More participants were interested in the study when contacted by calls compared to text (11.4% vs. 1.8%) and more participants were enrolled in the study when contacted by calls compared to text (1.1% vs. 0.2%). Regression models showed that ethnicity, age, time of day, and week of the month were not significantly associated with response rates. Recruitment of Latinos from an ED patient registry into a smoking cessation clinical trial is feasible using call and text, although enrollment may be low.

scholarly journals Interaction effects of P-O fit and Machiavellism on the perceived organizational politics

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 385-410
Author(s):  
JongWon Lee ◽  
KangHyun Shin ◽  
JongHyun Lee ◽  
WanSuk Gim
Keyword(s):  
Interaction Effect ◽  
Demographic Factors ◽  
Organizational Politics ◽  
Interaction Effects ◽  
Hierarchical Regression ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Person Organization Fit ◽  
Main Effects

This research has examined the main effects and interaction effect of person-organization fit and machiavellism on perceived organizational politics. This study was conducted by using sample of 396 public officers and analyzed the main and interaction effect of P-O fit and machiavellism on perceived organizational politics by hierarchical regression analyses which controlled demographic factors. The major findings of this study were as follows: First, as P-O fit score increased, the degree of perceived organizational politics tended to decrease( =-.143, p<.01). Second, the higher level of machiavellism was, the lower perceived organizational politics( =.272, p<.001). Third, interaction effect of P-O fit and machiavellism on the perceived organizational politics was significant(⊿ =.024, p<.01). Furthermore, results of this study showed that among three sub-factors of P-O fit, only needs-supplies and demands- ability had a interaction effect with machiavellism(needs-supplies: ⊿ =.033, p<.001; demands-ability: ⊿ =.024, p<.01). Finally, implications of this study and tasks of future research were discussed.

scholarly journals Dual Decline in Gait and Cognition Is Associated With Future Dementia: Evidence for a Phenotype

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 264-264
Author(s):  
Manuel Montero Odasso ◽  
Mark Speechley ◽  
Richard Camicioli ◽  
Nellie Kamkar ◽  
Qu Tian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Gait Speed ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Community Dwelling ◽  
Hierarchical Regression ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Cox Models ◽  
Incident Dementia ◽  
Risk Of Progression ◽  
Community Dwelling Older Adults

Abstract BACKGROUND: The concurrent decline in gait speed and cognition are associated with future dementia. However, the clinical profile of those who present with dual-decline has not yet been described. We aimed to describe the phenotype and risk for incident dementia of individuals who present a dual-decline in comparison with non dual-decliners. METHODS: Prospective cohort of community-dwelling older adults free of dementia at baseline. We evaluated participants’ gait speed, cognition, medical status, functionality, incidence of adverse events, and dementia biannually over 7 years. Gait speed was assessed with a 6-meter electronic-walkway, and global cognition was assessed using the MoCA test. We compared characteristics between dual-decliners and non dual-decliners using t-test, Chi-square, and hierarchical regression models. We estimated incident dementia using Cox models. RESULTS: Among 144 participants (mean age 74.23 ± 6.72 years, 54% women), 17% progressed to dementia. Dual-decliners had a three-fold risk (HR: 3.12, 95%CI:1.23-7.93, p=0.017) of progression to dementia compared with non dual-decliners. Dual-decliners were significantly older with a higher prevalence of hypertension and dyslipidemia (p=0.002). Hierarchical regression models show that age and sex alone explained 3% of the variation in the dual-decliners group, while adding hypertension and dyslipidemia increased the explained variation to 8% and 10 %, respectively. The risk of becoming a dual-decliner was 4-fold if hypertension was present. CONCLUSION: Older adults with concurrent decline in gait speed and cognition represent a group at the highest risk of progression to dementia. These dual-decliners have a distinct phenotype with a higher prevalence of hypertension, a potentially treatable condition.

scholarly journals Using body temperature and variables commonly available in the EHR to predict acute infection: a proof-of-concept study showing improved pretest probability estimates for acute COVID-19 infection among discharged emergency department patients

Diagnosis ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl T. Berdahl ◽  
An T. Nguyen ◽  
Marcio A. Diniz ◽  
Andrew J. Henreid ◽  
Teryl K. Nuckols ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Body Temperature ◽  
Acute Infection ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Pretest Probability ◽  
Absolute Difference ◽  
Proof Of Concept ◽  
Easy Method ◽  
Concept Study ◽  
Probability Estimates

Abstract Objectives Obtaining body temperature is a quick and easy method to screen for acute infection such as COVID-19. Currently, the predictive value of body temperature for acute infection is inhibited by failure to account for other readily available variables that affect temperature values. In this proof-of-concept study, we sought to improve COVID-19 pretest probability estimation by incorporating covariates known to be associated with body temperature, including patient age, sex, comorbidities, month, and time of day. Methods For patients discharged from an academic hospital emergency department after testing for COVID-19 in March and April of 2020, we abstracted clinical data. We reviewed physician documentation to retrospectively generate estimates of pretest probability for COVID-19. Using patients’ COVID-19 PCR test results as a gold standard, we compared AUCs of logistic regression models predicting COVID-19 positivity that used: (1) body temperature alone; (2) body temperature and pretest probability; (3) body temperature, pretest probability, and body temperature-relevant covariates. Calibration plots and bootstrap validation were used to assess predictive performance for model #3. Results Data from 117 patients were included. The models’ AUCs were: (1) 0.69 (2) 0.72, and (3) 0.76, respectively. The absolute difference in AUC was 0.029 (95% CI −0.057 to 0.114, p=0.25) between model 2 and 1 and 0.038 (95% CI −0.021 to 0.097, p=0.10) between model 3 and 2. Conclusions By incorporating covariates known to affect body temperature, we demonstrated improved pretest probability estimates of acute COVID-19 infection. Future work should be undertaken to further develop and validate our model in a larger, multi-institutional sample.

scholarly journals Healthcare Utilization Due to Suicide Attempts among Homeless Youth in New York State

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rie Sakai-Bizmark ◽  
Hiraku Kumamaru ◽  
Dennys Estevez ◽  
Emily H Marr ◽  
Edith Haghnazarian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
New York ◽  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Suicide Attempt ◽  
Healthcare Utilization ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Homeless Youth ◽  
Suicide Attempts ◽  
New York State ◽  
Individual Characteristics

Abstract Suicide remains the leading cause of death among homeless youth. We assessed differences in healthcare utilization between homeless and non-homeless youth presenting to the emergency department or hospital after a suicide attempt. New York Statewide Inpatient and Emergency Department Databases (2009–2014) were used to identify homeless and non-homeless youth ages 10 to 17 who utilized healthcare services following a suicide attempt. To evaluate associations with homelessness, we used logistic regression models for mortality, use of violent means, intensive care unit utilization, log-transformed linear regression models for hospitalization cost, and negative binomial regression models for length of stay. All models were adjusted by individual characteristics with a hospital random effect and year fixed effect. We identified 18,026 suicide attempts with healthcare utilization rates of 347.2 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 317.5, 377.0) and 67.3 (95%CI: 66.3, 68.3) per 100,000 person-years for homeless and non-homeless youth, respectively. Length of stay for homeless youth was statistically longer than non-homeless youth (Incidence Rate Ratio 1.53; 95%CI: 1.32, 1.77). All homeless youth who visited the emergency department after a suicide attempt were subsequently hospitalized. This could suggest a higher acuity upon presentation among homeless youth compared with non-homeless youth. Interventions tailored to homeless youth should be developed.

scholarly journals THU0417 READMISSION RISK AND QUALITY OF CARE IN PATIENTS PRESENTING TO THE EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT WITH GOUT FLARES

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 446.2-446
Author(s):  
L. Brunetti ◽  
J. Vekaria ◽  
P. Lipsky ◽  
N. Schlesinger
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Economic Burden ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Medical Center ◽  
Research Support ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Comorbidity Index ◽  
Anti Inflammatory ◽  
Gout Flares

Background:Gout is the most common form of inflammatory arthritis and its economic burden is substantial, with estimates for the overall cost exceeding $20 billion (US) annually. Contributing to the economic burden are hospital admissions and iatrogenic events associated with pharmacotherapy. Identification of modifiable risk factors would be an important contribution to clinical practice.Objectives:The aim of this study was to identify opportunities for enhancing gout care in patients presenting to the Emergency Department (ED) with gout flares.Methods:This retrospective cohort study used data from electronic medical records (EMR) at a large community hospital. All consecutive patients visiting the medical center ED with a primary diagnosis of gout from 1/1/2016 to 7/1/2019 were included. Patients were then followed for 90 days to determine whether they were readmitted to the ED for any reason. A chart review identified whether they were on appropriate medications in terms of gout flare management. All data were summarized using descriptive statistics. A multiple logistic regression was constructed to identify risk factors for ED utilization within 90 days of the index visit.Results:A total of 214 patients were included in the analysis. Most patients were male (79%), mean age was 59.4 ± 15.6 years, and mean Charlson comorbidity index was 0.5 ± 1.14. The most common medications prescribed during the ED visit included NSAIDs (41.6%), opioids (28%), corticosteroids (26.6%), and colchicine (21%). Allopurinol and febuxostat were initiated in the ED in 4.7% and 0.9%, respectively. Discharge medications for the management of gout included NSAIDs (37%), corticosteroids (34.6%), opioids (23.8%), colchicine (14%), febuxostat (7%), and allopurinol (6.5%). Of the patients sent home with an opioid, 40% were newly prescribed. An anti-inflammatory medication was not prescribed in 29.6% of patients discharged from the ED. Readmission within 90 days was recorded in 16.8% of patients. Of these readmissions, 33.3% were gout-related and 11.1% were cardiac related.After adjusting for age and comorbidity index, patients receiving colchicine were 2.8 times more likely (OR, 2.81; 95% CI, 1.12 to 7.02; p=0.027) to return to the ED within 90 days. The most common cause of readmission in this subset was gout-related (54.5%).Conclusion:Nearly 30% of patients were discharged from the ED without an anti-inflammatory medication, whereas initiation of urate lowering therapy was rare. Opiates were used frequently, but the indication was uncertain. Only 5.6% of subjects revisited the ED for gout-related diagnoses in the subsequent 3 months. Colchicine prescription was associated with an increased risk of gout-related ED utilization within 90 days. Treatment of gout in the ED is sub-optimal and often does not follow established guidelines.Disclosure of Interests: :Luigi Brunetti Grant/research support from: Astellas Pharma, CSL Behring, Consultant of: Horizon Foundation of New Jersey, Janaki Vekaria: None declared, Peter Lipsky Consultant of: Horizon Therapeutics, Naomi Schlesinger Grant/research support from: Pfizer, AMGEN, Consultant of: Novartis, Horizon Pharma, Selecta Biosciences, Olatec, IFM Therapeutics, Mallinckrodt Pharmaceuticals, Speakers bureau: Takeda, Horizon

Disagreement between emergency department admission diagnosis and hospital discharge diagnosis: mortality and morbidity

Diagnosis ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Eames ◽  
Arie Eisenman ◽  
Richard J. Schuster
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Medical Center ◽  
Hospital Length ◽  
Hospital Length Of Stay ◽  
Admission Diagnosis ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Emergency Department Admission ◽  
Icu Length Of Stay ◽  
Discordant Group

AbstractPrevious studies have shown that changes in diagnoses from admission to discharge are associated with poorer outcomes. The aim of this study was to investigate how diagnostic discordance affects patient outcomes.: The first three digits of ICD-9-CM codes at admission and discharge were compared for concordance. The study involved 6281 patients admitted to the Western Galilee Medical Center, Naharyia, Israel from the emergency department (ED) between 01 November 2012 and 21 January 2013. Concordant and discordant diagnoses were compared in terms of, length of stay, number of transfers, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, readmission, and mortality.: Discordant diagnoses was associated with increases in patient mortality rate (5.1% vs. 1.5%; RR 3.35, 95% CI 2.43, 4.62; p<0.001), the number of ICU admissions (6.7% vs. 2.7%; RR 2.58, 95% CI 2.07, 3.32; p<0.001), hospital length of stay (3.8 vs. 2.5 days; difference 1.3 days, 95% CI 1.2, 1.4; p<0.001), ICU length of stay (5.2 vs. 3.8 days; difference 1.4 days, 95% CI 1.0, 1.9; p<0.001), and 30 days readmission (14.11% vs. 12.38%; RR 1.14, 95% CI 1.00, 1.30; p=0.0418). ED length of stay was also greater for the discordant group (3.0 vs. 2.9 h; difference 8.8 min; 95% CI 0.1, 0.2; p<0.001): These findings indicate discordant admission and discharge diagnoses are associated with increases in morbidity and mortality. Further research should identify modifiable causes of discordance.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document